Sugar futures are falling. But is it just seasonality?Looking at the futures of MARKETSCOM:SUGAR , we can see that the price continues to slide and we are currently at historic lows. This can be explained by seasonality and by the fact that Brazil is currently introducing a lot of sugar into the market. Let's dig in...
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
Thank you.
77.3% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
Chart Patterns
GOLD Formed Bearish Head and Shoulders Pattern🚨 TVC:GOLD Formed Bearish Head and Shoulders Pattern 🚨
TVC:GOLD has formed a bearish head and shoulders pattern and appears to be making a pullback to the neckline before a potential drop. However, if the price breaks out above the right shoulder, the bearish pattern could be invalidated.
📈 Technical Overview:
Pattern: Bearish Head and Shoulders
Neckline: Current pullback area.
Bearish Confirmation: A drop below the neckline could confirm the bearish move.
Invalidation: If the price breaks out above the right shoulder, the bearish pattern may be invalidated.
GBPUSD 1 hour time ⚙️ Technical Overview (GBP/USD – 1H)
🧱 Pattern Formation:
A clear Double Top pattern is visible, which is a bearish reversal signal.
The neckline sits around 1.3280 – price is currently hovering near it.
If price breaks below the neckline with momentum, it would confirm the pattern and trigger a bearish move.
📉 Key Levels:
Immediate Resistance:
1.3299 – 1.3300 (previous highs, also the double top peaks)
Neckline (critical support):
1.3280 zone — current structure support
Downside Targets (if neckline breaks):
1.31728 (first key support – prior structure area)
1.30382 (major support from previous breakout zone)
📏 Potential Measured Move:
The height from the top (~1.3340) to neckline (~1.3280) is ~60 pips.
Projection from neckline break gives a target around 1.3220 as the initial bearish goal.
If bearish momentum is strong, the next targets are 1.3172 and 1.3038.
🧠 Outlook & Bias:
Short-term bias: Bearish if price breaks below neckline (~1.3280) with volume or momentum.
Invalidation: A return above 1.3310 and break of top (~1.3340) invalidates the pattern.
📌 Potential Trade Setup (For Educational Use):
Entry: Break and close below 1.3280
Stop Loss: Above 1.3310–1.3320
TP1: 1.3220
TP2: 1.3172
TP3: 1.3038 (strong demand zone)
XAU/USD – Rejection from Supply Zone! Gold Bears Getting Ready?Timeframe: 15min | Setup: Supply & Demand + Price Action
Gold has just tested a significant supply zone around $3,256 and is showing rejection at the highs — right within the LuxAlgo supply range. This could be a short-term top if sellers take control.
Technical Breakdown:
Supply Zone (Resistance): $3,256–$3,257
Resistance Reaction: Multiple rejections and long upper wicks = seller dominance
Next Support Levels:
Intraday: $3,234
Strong Demand: $3,210
Price Action Insight:
Sellers are clearly defending the supply area, and the repeated failure to break higher increases the chance of a pullback. If price breaks below $3,234, expect a drop toward the $3,210 demand zone.
Bearish Plan (Scalp Idea):
Entry: Below $3,234
TP: $3,210
SL: Above $3,257
Use tight risk control as volatility may increase around news (marked icons on chart).
Bullish Invalidated Unless:
Gold breaks and closes above $3,257 with strong momentum — only then might we see continuation higher.
What to watch:
US news impact on dollar
Volume on breakout/rejection
5-min confirmations for early entry
Will gold dump from here or surprise breakout? Comment below!
Follow me for daily price action and S&D setups!
#XAUUSD #GoldTrading #PriceAction #SupplyAndDemand #LuxAlgo #Forex #Commodities #ScalpSetup #TradingView #GoldAnalysis #TechnicalSetup
USDJPY 1 day ⚙️ Technical Overview (USD/JPY – 1D)
📉 Trend & Structure:
Rising wedge pattern has been broken to the downside, which is typically a bearish reversal signal.
Price has retested the broken trendline from below near the 147.30 resistance level, confirming structure rejection.
Clear breakdown below both ascending trendlines.
📊 Key Levels:
Resistance:
147.32 (marked on chart, rejected after trendline break)
Minor resistance around 145.90–146.50, former support area turned resistance.
Support:
Nearest horizontal support: 135.00 – 136.00 zone
Major support (and target of measured move): 122.73, also aligned with prior consolidation zone from 2022.
📏 Measured Move:
A measured move suggests a potential drop of -8.43% (~1,229 pips) from the wedge top to the lower trendline support around 133.00–122.70 range.
This aligns with a long-term target near 122.73, which is a major structural level.
🧠 Outlook & Bias:
Bias: Bearish
Momentum: Strong breakdown with retest failure indicates bearish momentum is intact.
Confirmation: A daily close below 144.50 could further confirm downside continuation.
📌 Potential Trade Idea (Not Financial Advice):
Entry: After confirmation below 144.50 or aggressive entry on current retest failure.
SL: Above 147.50 (last swing high & trendline).
TP: First target at 136.00; second target at 122.70
USDZAR | 02.05.2025BUY 18.4400 | STOP 18.3300 | TAKE 18.5900 | Technically, the picture of the price movement disposes to a slight growth to the levels of previous resistances inside the medium-term descending channel. We also expect today data on the US labour market and the possible impact of indicators on the dollar. A slight growth is likely.
Gold continues to break down before non-farm payrolls!As mentioned in the continuous analysis of the gold trend, the current price is in a downward cycle from the historical high of 3500. After the first round of selling to 3260, it rebounded to repair 3370. It fell to 3268 at the beginning of the week and then turned to consolidation; after the shock, it fell from 3328 to break the low and now reported 3274; the 1H chart structure is weak and continues to follow up; short-term resistance is 3280-3290, and strong resistance is 3300-3304; short-term support is 3264-3260, and strong support is 3246 and weekly MA10-3238; in terms of operation, it is recommended to follow up with the trend and pay attention to the impact of ADP data; Strategy 1: Sell near 3290, protect 3290, and target 3260-3246;
XAUUSD DETAILED ANALYSIS TECHNICAL AND FUNDAMENTALS XAUUSD is currently trading around the 3256 level and is clearly respecting a descending channel on the 1-hour timeframe. The price is now pushing higher from the lower boundary of the channel, suggesting short-term bullish momentum. Based on the current technical structure, I am anticipating a clean breakout above the channel resistance, with the next key target at 3300. The marked purple resistance zone around 3310–3320 also acts as a magnet for price once the breakout is confirmed.
On the fundamental side, gold remains supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and speculation around the Fed's next rate decision. With recent U.S. economic data showing mixed signals—strong labor market figures but slowing inflation momentum—the market is pricing in fewer rate hikes, which weakens the USD and favors upside in XAUUSD. Additionally, central bank gold demand remains strong globally, acting as a long-term support for bullion.
Traders are currently reacting to a softening dollar index and treasury yields, which further underpins bullish sentiment in gold. A clear break above the upper boundary of this channel, ideally with strong volume confirmation, could set the stage for a swift move to retest the 3300 psychological level. From a risk-reward perspective, the breakout trade setup here aligns well with institutional strategies that favor trend continuation post-consolidation.
In summary, XAUUSD is trading inside a clean descending channel, with buyers stepping in aggressively near the support zone. A breakout above the structure could trigger a bullish continuation move toward 3300, backed by strong macro tailwinds and technical confirmation. This setup offers an excellent opportunity for swing traders to capitalize on short-term momentum. Are you also tracking gold fundamentals this week?
Bullish rise?AUD/NZD has bounced off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 1.0755
1st Support: 1.07256
1st Resistance: 1.09043
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
AUDCAD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W18 D2 Y25AUDCAD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W18 D2 Y25
Professional Risk Managers👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure.
Let’s see what price action is telling us today!
💡Here are some trade confluences📝
✅Daily 50 EMA
✅Intraday 5' order block
✅Tokyo ranges to be filled
✅Intraday bearish breaks of structure to be confirmed
🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies.
📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities.
💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail.
🏆It has always been that simple.
❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top.
🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Nas100 Diamond BottomAt the 16400 gap down the play was simple, buy, fill the gap and bullish engulf this puppy.
So it happened, and the 10 percent pump is the middle of the diamond. Then what was left to be bullish on the final retraces onto the right side of the diamond.
Now we are in. I expect exponentiaal growth, but first target is the magic average plotted on this chart.
Good luck and remember, no guarantees. I play the chart and trust it, but if it backfires thats my risk im willing to take.
EURUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W18 D2 Y25EURUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W18 D2 Y25
Professional Risk Managers👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure.
Let’s see what price action is telling us today!
💡Here are some trade confluences📝
✅Weekly order block rejection
✅Daily order block rejection
✅Intraday 15' order blocks
✅Tokyo ranges to be filled
🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies.
📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities.
💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail.
🏆It has always been that simple.
❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top.
🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
EUR/CAD Short, USD/JPY Neutral, AUD/JPY Neutral and EUR/USD LongEUR/CAD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• If structured 1H continuation forms, 1H risk entry within it.
USD/JPY Neutral
Minimum entry requirements:
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If tight non-structured 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it if the continuation is structured on the 5 min chart or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight structured 15 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 15 min risk entry within it.
Minimum entry requirements:
• If structured 1H continuation forms, 1H risk entry within it.
AUD/JPY Neutral
Minimum entry requirements:
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If tight non-structured 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it if the continuation is structured on the 5 min chart or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight structured 15 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 15 min risk entry within it.
Minimum entry requirements:
• If structured 1H continuation forms, 1H risk entry within it.
EUR/USD Long
Minimum entry requirements:
• 1H impulse up above area of interest.
• If tight non-structured 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it if the continuation is structured on the 5 min chart or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight structured 15 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 15 min risk entry within it.
EURUSD is a ticking timebombEURUSD has been consolidating after a huge rally, forming a bullish pennant in the larger timeframes. Depending on which side the price breaks out from, enter accordingly. Break upwards? Buy. Break downwards? Sell. TPs are as specified.
Watchout for fake breakouts.
Please do not risk more than 1% per trade。
If you like the idea, please help like the post and comment down your thoughts below! I would love to hear your thoughts!
#XAUUDA Short Signal? A "close below 3250 short signal" for #XAUUSD** (Gold Spot/U.S. Dollar) indicates a potential bearish trading opportunity if the price closes below the key level of **3,250** on the 15-minute chart. Here's the breakdown:
### Key Observations:
1. **Current Price**: 3,251.365 (slightly above 3,250).
2. **Critical Level**: 3,250 acts as a psychological and technical #support/#resistance level.
3. **Bid/Ask Spread**:
- **SELL (Bid)**: 3,250.770
- **BUY (Ask)**: 3,251.590
#Signal Interpretation:
- #Short_Signal_Trigger**: A confirmed close **below 3,250** on the 15m chart suggests weakening bullish momentum and potential downward movement.
- **Targets**: The next support levels to watch are **3,248 → 3,244 → 3,240**, with stronger support near **3,215–3,207**.
- **Invalidation**: A rebound above **3,256–3,260** would negate the bearish bias.
### Execution Tips:
- **Confirmation**: Wait for a full 15m candle to close below 3,250 to avoid false breakdowns.
- **Risk Management**: Place a stop-loss just above recent resistance (e.g., 3,256–3,260) to limit downside risk.
- **Context**: Monitor broader market conditions (e.g., USD strength, geopolitical events) that could impact gold prices.
This setup aligns with a classic technical trading strategy, leveraging price action around key levels. Always validate with additional indicators (e.g., RSI, volume) if available.
EUR/USD Bullish Breakout _ Targeting 1.14200Based on the chart of EUR/USD pair on the 30-minute timeframe.
1. Downtrend Observed
The price action has been forming lower highs and lower lows, indicative of a sustained downtrend.
A clear descending trendline (drawn in blue) confirms this bearish movement.
2. Potential Bullish Reversal
There's a bullish breakout above the descending trendline. This breakout is marked with a blue highlight circle.
The price has broken above both the trendline and the moving averages, suggesting a potential shift in momentum.
3. Support Zone and Reversal
A support zone has been drawn near the 1.1270–1.1290 level where price previously found buyers.
This area acted as a demand zone leading to the bounce that broke the trendline.
4. Confirmation and Projection
The label “Bullish breakout trend confirmation” suggests that the trader anticipates continued upward movement.
The large arrow and zig-zag line imply a strong bullish rally may follow, possibly targeting levels above 1.1400.
5 Target Point : 1.EUR?4200