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#202451 - priceactiontds - year end special - sp500 e-miniGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: For the sp500 the start of the bull trend is a bit less clear as for dax. My take is that it started with the 2023-10 low and before that was still the big trading range the main pattern. Does it matter if my wave thesis is off for W1 or where W4 ended? I don’t think it does. My targets (obvious magnets) would still be the same. We have a bull trend that went up a pretty perfect measured move from the Covid low to the 2023-10 low. This will be my biggest target for 2025. We then have a perfect magnet down to the previous ath from 2022-01 at 5300, which is the 50% retracement of the bull trend from 2023-10 to the ath. 5300 will be the first and most important target for the bears in the medium-term. Depending on how we get there, we can estimate on if and how we could get down to 4400. As of now, it is unlikely that we will see 4400 in 2025. Something bigger has to happen and markets need to change drastically. A liquidity event would certainly help. current market cycle: Bull trend from 2023-10 has likely ended already and we are transitioning into a trading range or new bear trend. By the end of January we will know for sure what it will be. key levels for 2025: 5000 - 6200 bull case: Since the bigger western indexes are highly correlated, many arguments for them are the same. Past two years gave the bulls 55+% in gains while the biggest pull-back was 10% in 2024-08. The bulls have made money buying the weekly 20ema for a year and they don’t want to stop because this time it surely is different and valuations are boomer metrics for poor people who did not get in on the latest fartcoin pump. I don’t have anything more to say in this section. Invalidation is below 4400. Below that price, an event has happened or is happening. For now it’s unreasonable to ever think this market could see prices below 4000 again. bear case: Long ongoing climactic bull trend and every new high got smaller. Bears know the bulls have to take profit at some point, especially after a prolonged period without pull-backs. Once the profit taking get’s going, this will accelerate downwards to find bigger support. The first target for the bears is a daily close below 5900 and then a test of the nearest bull trend line around 5800. We can only expect more sideways once we get there. When bears finally break it, 5500 is the next obvious magnet and we then have only one more big bull trend line left, which is the one from the Covid lows. As mentioned above, the 50% retracement for this trend is as perfect as it get’s the previous ath near 5300 and for now this will be my biggest target to hit in 2025. Again, depending on how we get there, we can either estimate lower targets or expect the market to move sideways in a bigger range. Invalidation is above 6300. short term: Same argument for year end rally as for dax. Highest I can see this going for 6250 (give or take) and then we will test the first bull trend line around 5800 over the next weeks. 5500 in Q1 is my estimate as of now. medium-long term: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg. current swing trade: None but same argument as for dax. Short ETF until we hit 5300 is reasonable.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
1
cup and holder pattern for shibashiba is making an interesting and profitable pattern that u can't miss it. first of all shiba dumped for 70% and it makes the cup then dumped again to create a holder. as u can see my trigger I'll enter in there. here we have 3 kind of tp 1:fibo:u can get ur profit by fibo. 2:measure trding: u can see it. 3: max tp:it can touch the piror high. maybe like FO or ENG but with low possibility. don't forget to tell me ur idea and boost this post. bye {;
COINBASE:SHIBUSDLong
by Amirlolal
1
The Fibonacci golden ratio (commonly 0.618 or 61.8%) Always PlayThe Fibonacci golden ratio (commonly 0.618 or 61.8%) is a powerful concept in trading and is often used for identifying potential reversal or continuation zones. However, while it is highly effective, it doesn’t always work, as no tool or concept in trading guarantees 100% accuracy. Here's why: Why Fibonacci Golden Ratio Works: Natural Patterns: The Fibonacci ratio is rooted in nature and psychology. It reflects patterns that occur in financial markets as traders’ behavior often aligns with these ratios. Support and Resistance: The 61.8% retracement level frequently acts as a strong support or resistance zone where price reacts. Widely Used: Many traders use Fibonacci levels, which makes them self-fulfilling to some extent. Why It Doesn't Always Work: Market Conditions: Fibonacci levels may fail in choppy or sideways markets where clear trends or retracements don’t exist. Lack of Confluence: A single Fibonacci level without other confirmations (like trendlines, candlestick patterns, or volume) might not hold. External Factors: Sudden news, macroeconomic events, or unexpected volatility can overpower technical analysis. How to Make It More Effective: Combine with Confluences: Use Fibonacci retracements with trendlines, candlestick patterns, moving averages, or RSI divergence for higher accuracy. Check Market Context: Apply Fibonacci in trending markets where retracements are more predictable. Backtest and Refine: Analyze past data to see how well Fibonacci levels align with price action in the assets you trade.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by RajaSaien
Bitcoin is gathering a lot of liquidity.Given the general expectations for the growth of the price of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, my prediction is for the rapid growth of the price of Bitcoin and a sudden break of the resistance areas up to 102 thousand. Of course, if it is unable to raise the required liquidity in these areas, it is likely that the decline to lower areas will continue until late December. If you are trading long-term and have been lagging the market so far, the current area is suitable for a step entry in most cryptocurrencies, you can take a buy step. Please keep in mind that this is a personal analysis and opinion. Your trading risk is solely your own.
Long
by Alireza_yarian
US Government Shutdown Averted: A Comprehensive Overview.US Government Shutdown Averted: A Comprehensive Overview Background The US government narrowly avoided a shutdown after a last-minute spending deal was passed just hours before the deadline. This agreement came after intense negotiations and a brief period of uncertainty that had federal employees and the public on edge. Key Events Leading to the Near Shutdown Initial Spending Deal: House Speaker Mike Johnson negotiated a bipartisan spending deal that included disaster relief funding and other provisions. However, this deal faced opposition from President-elect Donald Trump and tech billionaire Elon Musk. Trump's Opposition: Trump demanded that the deal include provisions to raise the debt ceiling, leading to the collapse of the initial agreement. Revised Deal: After intense negotiations, a revised spending bill was passed with bipartisan support, excluding the debt ceiling provisions. This bill funds the government through March 2025. Impact of the Near Shutdown Federal Employees: Thousands of federal employees faced uncertainty about their pay. Essential services were maintained, but non-essential functions were at risk of being halted. Economic Effects: Analysts projected that a prolonged shutdown could reduce GDP growth by 0.15 percentage points for each week of closure. However, the impact is expected to be temporary, with a potential boost in GDP growth once the government reopens. Market Reactions: The stock market experienced volatility during the near shutdown period, with investors closely monitoring developments in Washington. The resolution of the shutdown provided some relief to market participants. Future Outlook Debt Ceiling Debate: The issue of raising the debt ceiling remains unresolved and is expected to be a major point of contention in early 2025. Lawmakers will need to address this issue to avoid another potential shutdown. Political Dynamics: The near shutdown highlighted the divisions within the Republican Party and the influence of key figures like Trump and Musk. The upcoming administration will need to navigate these dynamics to ensure smooth governance. Economic Policies: The Federal Reserve's upcoming rate decision and other economic policies will be closely watched by traders and investors. The government's fiscal health and spending priorities will play a crucial role in shaping market sentiment. Latest Trading News for Traders Stocks Tesco's Share Price Current Price: £3.73 Analysis: Tesco's share price is trading around an 11-year high, but some analysts believe it is still undervalued by 41%. However, rising National Insurance contributions and potential cost of living increases pose risks to its earnings. Support Levels: £3.50, £3.20 Resistance Levels: £4.00, £4.50 Los Dos Amigos Closure The popular Mexican restaurant in Portsmouth announced its last day of trading due to a "broken business model" in today's climate. This highlights the ongoing challenges small businesses face in the current economic environment. Forex FXiBot Launch Avenix Fzco has launched FXiBot, a forex robot designed to enhance trading strategies through advanced data processing and systematic trading protocols. This innovation reflects the growing trend of automation in forex trading. Currency Movements USD/JPY: The USD/JPY has been on a six-day rally. Support Levels: 1.25, 1.23 Resistance Levels: 1.30, 1.32 EUR/USD: The EUR/USD has slid after the European Central Bank's rate cut. Support Levels: 1.05, 1.03 Resistance Levels: 1.10, 1.12 Cryptocurrencies Bitcoin (BTC) Current Price: $106,000 Analysis: Bitcoin has hit a new record high ahead of an expected Federal Reserve rate cut. Support Levels: $100,000, $95,000 Resistance Levels: $110,000, $115,000 Ethereum (ETH) Current Price: $3,900 Analysis: Ethereum prices have remained steady amid a broad crypto market pullback. Support Levels: $3,800, $3,600 Resistance Levels: $4,100, $4,300 Commodities Gold (XAU/USD) Current Price: $1,800 Analysis: Gold prices have been muted as traders brace for the Federal Reserve's rate decision. Support Levels: $1,750, $1,720 Resistance Levels: $1,850, $1,900 Oil Prices Oil prices have been volatile due to geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions. Support Levels: $70, $65 Resistance Levels: $75, $80 Indices Nasdaq Futures Current Price: 15,000 Analysis: Nasdaq futures have been flat after the tech-heavy index lost sight of record highs. Support Levels: 14,800, 14,500 Resistance Levels: 15,200, 15,500 Dow Jones Current Price: 34,000 Analysis: The Dow Jones Industrial Average has seen mixed performance, with some sectors outperforming while others lag behind. Support Levels: 33,800, 33,500 Resistance Levels: 34,200, 34,500 Upcoming Economic Events US Inflation Data: The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is expected to be released on Friday, December 20th. This data is closely watched by traders as it influences the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. Central Bank Rate Decisions: The Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its rate decision on Wednesday, December 18th. The Bank of Japan and the Bank of England will also announce their decisions on Thursday, December 19th1. UK Inflation Data: The UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to be released on Wednesday, December 18th. This data can impact the GBP/USD exchange rate and other related assets..
FX:BTCUSD
by OakleyJM