SPY Analysis - Sep22 month end below 370SPY to extend downtrend and is tracking to below 370 levels by Sep22 month-end
DYOR; this is a point of view as I dislike the hedging of both bull/bear narratives -
e.g., bulls have a "chance" to hold and 75bps "may" already be priced in
AMEX:SPY Chart :
Downward channels (yellow) have rejected 410 resistance/SZ (purple)
Prediction (blue bars) mirrors Aug16th - Sep7th range into the future (post-Sep16) = prediction to sub-362 level (med to low likelihood) and at least below 370 (high likelihood)
The aforementioned prediction tracks well to yellow channel from Aug7th high and also in range to traditional Jun high yellow channel
Fear/Greed index is 36 and tracking downwards to at least early July lows
Notes:
Participation: 9/19 Low | 9/21 Moderate re: FOMC | 9/23 Moderate | 9/26 Low | 9/28 Low
Participation: 9/30 Very high ; Levels: 390 ++ / 385 +++ / 370 +++ / 350 ++
Key level on SPX: If it breaks below 3588 - it is going lower
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Action : SPY Puts @370 Sep30 expiry ( ~2X ROI ) or put spread 370/365 for more risk (4X+ ROI)
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-Welcome feedback and comments!
