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My personal interpretation of the Volume Footprint chart Hello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please click "Boost" as well. Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- I signed up for an expensive plan on TradingView, but I think there are some parts of the chart that I can't use properly. I think the Volume Footprint chart is a chart that can be used when you sign up for a premium plan. (I may be wrong, so please check.) I think it's because I'm used to the old way, so I feel resistant to new things, and the explanation is difficult to read. In order to solve that problem a little, I'd like to explain how to interpret the chart using only the core interpretation methods. Since my explanation may be different from the creator's intention, I strongly recommend that you read the creator's explanation. Volume Footprint Chart Description: www.tradingview.com ---------------------------------------- I think you should pay attention to and interpret the part indicated above. I think the section marked as VAL, VAH is the section that is mainly traded. Therefore, I think that depending on which direction it deviates from this section, it will affect the future flow. Therefore, - If it rises near or above VAH, it is likely to show an upward trend, - If it falls near or below VAL, it is likely to show a downward trend. - The next thing to look at is the column indicated next to each volume. (The part that the arrow points to) - The column in the Sell Volume section indicates that it is a section with strong selling pressure, - The column in the Buy Volume section indicates that it is a section with strong buying pressure. (The creator explains that this is the part that is indicated by the imbalance of volume.) Anyway, since there is a high possibility of a rebound or reversal in the part where this column is indicated, I think it can be a tradable section depending on whether it receives support or resistance in this part. - The Delta section shows the difference between Sell Volume and Buy Volume. ----------------------------------------------------------- The time frame charts that are good for viewing the volume footprint chart are 1s, 1m, 15m, 1h, and 1D charts, so I recommend viewing them with the corresponding time frame charts. If it deviates from the VAL, VAH area near 1, 1-1 and 2, 2-1 shown on the chart, a trend is formed, so you should check whether it deviates from this section. If it does not deviate, it can be interpreted that there is a high possibility of sideways movement. - Therefore, 1. Is it located near VAL, VAH? 2. Is there a section where columns are created next to Sell Volume, Buy Volume? I think this chart allows you to detect the trading volume, that is, the movement of buyers and sellers, with the above two things. - Have a good time. Thank you. --------------------------------------------------
Education
by readCrypto
$NYSE:RTX Rebound After a Healthy PullbackNYSE:RTX is currently in an uptrend, as evidenced by its strong upward movement, followed by a period of consolidation. This phase is crucial as it allows the stock to gather strength and form a stable base before potentially continuing its upward trajectory. The RSI indicates that the stock is approaching a neutral range, which suggests it is neither overbought nor oversold at this point. Given the overall trend and the current consolidation, it would be prudent to allow this phase to fully mature. This will provide a clearer indication of whether the stock is ready for a breakout or if it needs further time to stabilize before continuing its trend. Patience during this phase is key, I'm looking for a breakout beyond 121.40$ to reconsider a position.
NYSE:RTX
by David_SpotTheTrend
1
Bitcoin Cycles: Predicted Highs and Lows for 2025-2026 In this post, we will explore the Bitcoin market cycle in an effort to predict when the next cycle's top and bottom might occur, along with their potential price levels. Our analysis will cover several key concepts, including the Four-Year Cycle Theory, peak-to-peak and bottom-to-bottom analysis, cycle timing (peak-to-bottom), and the idea of diminishing returns, to support our forecast. Lets go! The Four-Year Cycle Theory: The Four-Year Cycle Theory in Bitcoin refers to a recurring market cycle that aligns with the Bitcoin halving event, which occurs approximately every four years. It suggests that Bitcoin's price moves in predictable cycles, driven largely by the dynamics of supply and demand, with the halving event acting as a significant catalyst. The theory suggests that each four-year cycle consists of four distinct phases: a. Accumulation (Bear Market Bottom) b. Uptrend (Bull Market Start) c. Parabolic Rise (Bull Market Peak) d. Correction (Bear Market Crash) The halving significantly reduces the rate at which new Bitcoin is mined, which leads to a supply reduction. As supply decreases while demand stays the same or increases (due to growing adoption, media attention, etc.), the price often rises after the halving leading to phase c. the Parabolic Rise. With the basics of the Four-Year Cycle Theory covered, we can now analyze the intervals between cycle peaks and bottoms. Cycle interval analysis: A cycle analysis aims to identify recurring patterns by analyzing the time and price movements between key events, such as market tops (peaks) and bottoms, in the case of Bitcoin the halving event may also be considered. By examining these cyclical behaviors it is attempted to predict future tops and bottoms. The simplest and easiest-to-understand patterns are: 1. Top-to-Top The time difference between consecutive market tops 2. Top-to-Bottom The time difference between a market top to the next market bottom. 3. Bottom-to-Top The time difference between a market bottom to the next market top. 4. Bottom-to-Bottom The time difference between consecutive market bottoms. There are however also more advanced patterns such as: 5. All-Time-High Break to Top The time difference between a break of the last cycle top to the next market top. 6. Halving event to top The time difference between the halving event to the next market top. It can be observed that market cycle patterns in the 2nd cycle are shorter compared to those in the 3rd and 4th cycles. This is likely due to a lack of market maturation or the fact that it occurs before the first halving. What stands out is the similarity between the 3rd and 4th cycle patterns. By averaging these cycles, we can predict the 5th cycle. Even more striking is that several of these predictions closely match the subsequent cycle top AND bottom. The predicted upcoming market cycle top is predicted as follows: Based on the Top-to-Top pattern, the market top is forecasted for November 3, 2025. According to the Bottom-to-Bottom pattern, the top is expected on October 13, 2025. The Halving Event-to-Top pattern suggests a market peak on October 6, 2025. Additionally, the ATH-Break-to-Top pattern indicates that the Parabolic Rise of the current cycle will begin on December 9, 2024. The predicted upcoming market cycle bottom is predicted as follows: Based on the Bottom-to-Bottom pattern, the market bottom is forecasted for October 19th 2026. According to the Top-to-Bottom pattern, the market bottom is forecasted for October 26th 2026. Here is a graphical overview of our prediction timelines: Price prediction using diminishing Returns: In the context of Bitcoin and market cycles, diminishing returns refers to the phenomenon where, as Bitcoin’s market matures and more capital or resources are invested, the incremental gains or price increases from additional investments become smaller over time. In essence this means the following: Bull Market Peaks: As a market cycle reaches its peak, diminishing returns become evident. The price increases become smaller and less dramatic each cycle compared to earlier in the cycle. Bear Market Corrections: Following the peak, the market often enters a correction phase where prices decline significantly. The decline also becomes smaller and less dramatic compared to earlier cycles. In essence, this results in less dramatic bull cycles but also less severe declines during bear markets: Here is a table overview with the values: The effects of diminishing returns are clearly observable, with one exception: the Cycle Top to the next Cycle Bottom in Cycle 3, which saw a 6x loss. However, if we take the effects of diminishing returns into consideration, we can make the following conclusions: The next Cycle Top will likely not exceed the Cycle 4 Top-to-Top multiplier of 3.4x, meaning it is unlikely to exceed a price of 224K. The next Cycle Top will likely not exceed the Cycle 4 Bot-to-Top multiplier of 20.5x, meaning it is even more unlikely to exceed a price of 333K. After considering the effects of diminishing returns, we believe a Top-to-Top multiplier in the range of 2 to 2.6 is realistic. Therefore, we predict a cycle top price of $131,000 to $170,000. Regarding the next bear market Bottom: The next Cycle Bottom will likely be below the Cycle 4 Bot-to-Bot multiplier of 5.1x, meaning it will likely be below 83K. We believe a Bot-to-Bot multiplier in the range of 3 to 4 is realistic. Therefore, we predict a cycle bottom price of $49,000 to $65,000. Final Conclusion: Predicted Cycle Top: The upcoming market cycle top is forecasted to occur in October or November 2025. Based on our analysis, we predict a price range of $131,000 to $170,000. Predicted Cycle Bottom: The upcoming market cycle bottom is forecasted to occur in October or November 2026. Based on our analysis, we predict a price range of $49,000 to $65,000. These predictions incorporate the effects of diminishing returns and historical cycle patterns.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Cryptonerds
3
“The Nasdaq Index Extends Losses”In the U.S., the JOLTS job openings decreased by 237,000 in July compared to the previous month, dropping to 7.673 million. This marks the lowest level since January 2021. Following this data, expectations have increased that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could reduce the policy rate by a total of 125 basis points across its three remaining meetings this year. Additionally, the likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting has risen to 45%. The release of U.S. macroeconomic data, which has triggered recession concerns, has led to increased selling pressure on the indices. Technically, the Nasdaq index, which has retreated to the 18,780 level, could experience further selling pressure, potentially reaching the support levels of 18,450 and 17,900. In the event of a potential buying movement, if we see a close above the 18,900 level, the upward trend could extend to the resistance levels of 19,520 and 19,970.
NASDAQ:NDX
by primequotes
#GBPCAD possible head and shoulder formationAs you can see in the chart, we might be observing a potential Head and Shoulders pattern forming on the 1H timeframe in GBPCAD. Given the bearish market structure on the 4H timeframe, this 1H bullish move could be viewed as a corrective rally within the larger downtrend. Additionally, there is a bearish divergence between the left shoulder and the head, further strengthening the bearish confluence. To enter a sell position, I recommend waiting for the price to drop below the 1H EMA (blue line) and then look for a bearish setup to confirm the trade.
Short
by mohemati
Pareidolia in Trading; or seeing what we want to seeIn trading, as in many areas of life, our perceptions are often shaped by our desires and expectations. This phenomenon, where we see patterns or signals that align with our preconceived notions, can be likened to pareidolia—a psychological tendency to perceive familiar shapes or patterns in random or ambiguous stimuli, like seeing faces in clouds or animals in rock formations. In the context of trading, pareidolia can manifest as the tendency to identify market patterns that confirm our biases, regardless of the objective data. Understanding Pareidolia in Trading: Pareidolia occurs when traders project their biases onto market charts, interpreting random price movements as meaningful patterns that align with their desired outcomes. For example, a trader might: - See Patterns That Aren't There: A trader with a bullish outlook might interpret a random series of higher lows as an emerging uptrend, even if the overall market context doesn't support this view. Similarly, a trader expecting a downturn might see every minor pullback as the start of a major reversal. - Misinterpret Neutral Data: In the desire to confirm a specific outlook, traders may interpret neutral or ambiguous data as supporting their position. This can lead to overconfidence and misguided trading decisions. - Ignore Contradictory Evidence: Just as pareidolia in everyday life causes us to ignore the randomness of what we see, in trading, it can lead to ignoring data or signals that contradict our desired market outlook. This selective perception can be dangerous, as it prevents traders from making balanced, informed decisions. The Importance of Objectivity The key to successful trading is maintaining objectivity. While it's natural to have a market outlook—bullish, bearish, or otherwise—it's essential to base your decisions on the full spectrum of available data, not just the signals that support your bias. Objectivity in trading involves: - Comprehensive Analysis: Always analyze the market from multiple angles. Use a variety of technical and fundamental tools to get a well-rounded view of the market. Avoid relying on a single indicator or pattern. - Risk Management: Incorporate strict risk management practices. This includes setting stop-loss orders, managing position sizes, and not allowing one biased interpretation to dictate your entire strategy. - Journaling and Reflection: Keep a trading journal to document your trades, including your reasoning for entering and exiting positions. Regularly review your journal to identify patterns in your thinking, particularly any tendencies to see what you want to see rather than what is actually there. - Seeking Alternative Perspectives: Engage with other traders or seek out market analysis that challenges your view. This helps in broadening your perspective and reducing the influence of personal bias. Overcoming Pareidolia in Trading To counteract pareidolia and its effects on your trading, consider the following steps: - Awareness: The first step in overcoming pareidolia is recognizing that it exists. Be aware of your own biases and how they might influence your interpretation of market data. - Diversification of Analysis: Use multiple sources of information and different types of analysis (technical, fundamental, sentiment analysis) to form a more balanced view of the market. - Challenge Your Assumptions: Regularly question your assumptions and consider alternative scenarios. This practice can help you remain flexible and adapt to changing market conditions rather than clinging to a biased perspective. - Adopt a Skeptical Mindset: Be skeptical of patterns that seem too good to be true or that perfectly align with your expectations. This skepticism can protect you from falling into the trap of seeing what you want to see. Conclusion: In trading, the tendency to see what we want to see—much like pareidolia—can cloud our judgment and lead to poor decision-making. By acknowledging this bias and actively working to maintain objectivity, traders can improve their ability to make sound, evidence-based decisions. The market is a complex and often unpredictable environment, and the best way to navigate it is with a clear, unbiased perspective that prioritizes facts over wishful thinking. P.S: I didn't randomly choose to post this educational piece under the BTC/USD chart on TradingView. In the case of Bitcoin, pareidolia is something I've encountered quite frequently. I vividly remember in 2021, when everyone was eagerly expecting BTC to surpass $100k, but instead, it began to decline. The majority of analyses were along the lines of: "BTC has dropped to the 50-day moving average, it’s a great buying opportunity," or "BTC has reached the 100-day moving average, an incredible moment to buy." And then, "It's at some horizontal support, that didn’t work out, so let’s count Elliott waves—whatever it takes to justify that it will reach $100k, $500k, or whatever." I don't claim to know whether BTC will hit $1 million in the long or very long term. All I know for sure is what the father of modern economics once said: "In the long run, we are all dead." And no, I have nothing against BTC or the crypto market. To keep things objective, I also have something to say to those who have been predicting BTC at $0 for over ten years, or to those who have been forecasting a market crash for five years straight and then finally shout they were right when the market does drop: "The last person to predict the end of the world will eventually be right." Have a nice day, Mihai Iacob
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Mihai_Iacob
Will Gold Prices Bounce Or Slide?The gold market is currently experiencing high volatility, making it essential to exercise caution. Key levels to watch: - Break above 2523: Potential buying opportunity - Break below 2518: Potential selling opportunity Traders are advised to closely monitor these levels and adjust their strategies accordingly. Stop-losses (SLs) are recommended to mitigate risk. Stay vigilant and adapt to market changes to capitalize on potential trading opportunities.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by sabellaFX
2
#SPX intermarket analysisAs observed, the SPX and Copper have shown a strong positive correlation over the past few weeks, often forming tops and bottoms simultaneously. Given that Copper recently failed to break above a long-term bearish channel upper line and has broken its structure to the downside, we might expect a similar move in the SPX. However, when trading SPX based on this intermarket analysis, it's crucial to wait for a price confirmation in the SPX itself before taking any action.
FX:COPPERShort
by mohemati