Get started

Checkmatepattern

BTCUSD 4H/1D charts (4/30/2019)Good morning, traders. It appears that we are getting some action this morning as price popped out of a few patterns and is testing the resistance of another. Tomorrow is the monthly close. This movement is not unexpected at all if you've been following my analysis. Price action and volume analysis across multiple TFs have suggested that this is the most likely movement, but can demand follow through? Price is now above the 21 EMA on the 4H chart once again, as well as being at the top of the HVN. It still remains a bit below the 4H pivot, though. So far, 4H RSI is trending within the ascending channel it printed. A fall through the channel support would most likely signal downward price progression. If the daily RSI pushes through its descending resistance, traders should be looking at higher targets. There are four targets based on the patterns. The first is just above that pivot at $5265 and is based on the height of the red descending channel. The second is $5435 and will come into play once price exits through the purple ascending triangle's resistance. This second target is also at the ascending dotted channel's EQ. The third is $5660 and is based on the height of the red descending broadening wedge. This third target also puts price at the November 18th high which is important because continued movement above it sets into motion the possibility of liquidating the shorts initiated there at that time. The fourth target is at $5918 and is based on the height of the large blue TR, but will not activate until price closes above that upper blue horizontal line at the top of the TR. Will price make it to that fourth target and then be rejected, or will it continue toward $6300 and get rejected at the HVN? Nobody knows for sure, but the HVN argument makes a lot of sense. I have explained the higher targets over the past few weeks so feel free to look back through my previous analysis. The possible checkmate pattern that I discussed yesterday should have price targeting the $5510 level, where it began, if it plays out. After the recent high almost taking out the whole of supply in that area, it doesn't seem likely that there will be enough supply there to suppress price if it gets to that level. The is a lot of defending of the $5200-$5300 level still happening suggesting that there are possibly some strongly over-leveraged shorts sitting just above. A sudden move above $5300 might just set them off causing a small squeeze toward the other cluster of shorts in the $5600 area which could lead to a much larger squeeze. However, the longer it takes price to get moving up that way, the less likely the squeeze becomes as traders start getting nervous and exiting their short positions. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
2
BTCUSD 4H chart (CME 4H chart also) 4/29/2019Good morning, traders. We have had a rather uneventful weekend which has been upsetting to many as the market has not provided direction. Tether Bitcoin pairs continue to print a premium over USD Bitcoin pairs. CME futures printed a gap at $5500 which will need to be filled, however this could come after price moves down first. Bitstamp has a 1H gap around $5400 as well. Price is not looking particularly strong at this time, however as price drops to $5100 the order books flash strong bids so we may be seeing retail selling into professional hands at that level. Currently, the daily candle has gapped down at $5161 so I expect that if we do drop it won't be long-lived. The recent weekly close printed a candle spread almost identical to the previous week's, just ending where that previous week began, and the weekly remains bullish at 55.5 at this time, though Stoch RSI is still overbought but finally falling. We can see price has crossed above the EQ of the descending channel which is usually considered bullish. If price pushes through the channel's resistance then we should be expecting a target of $5800-$5900, depending on when it happens, based on the height of the channel. Price has remained on the topside of the TR as it continues to print higher lows overall. So the move up mentioned ultimately would result in a target between $5900 and $6000, based on the height of the TR. Of course this is all in addition to the older targets from larger patterns that we have previously discussed. In the near term, a close above $5206 should get the ball rolling on greater appreciation and would have price targeting the top of the ascending channel that it may current be printing, as well as have price exiting the descending channel and TR. Everything else aside, the blue TR is the dominant pattern that traders should be watching. Secondary is the descending channel that price has been printing since the recent high. And third is the ascending channel within that descending channel. We have the monthly close tomorrow, so price may continue more sideways than anything else through that time. I have continued to mention that we are either at, or near, the top of this third wave and trying to trade this is often futile for most traders because they tend to hold for a big move and then get liquidated or scared off due to the noise before it happens. For most traders, this is not the time to be in a trade. It's best to wait for confirmation of this upward movement to be completed and then go long at the completion of the corrective wave 4. My final thought is in regard to a short squeeze. There's a lot of talk about it due to the significant increase in shorts, their overbought level, and the strong shorts-to-long ratio, as well as the longs oversold level. Since short squeezes most often happen at support, we would need to consider the blue TR's EQ as support. But what else should have us considering that this may occur? We have printed three daily dojis after that strong drop. As a matter of fact, the daily chart, starting from the recent high, looks a lot like a checkmate pattern (can also see this on the 4H chart). The large candle's low at $4991.42 has not been reached since the initial drop last Thursday. Instead, price has been trapped in a narrow trading range of about $150 on top of the TR's EQ (i.e. support level). Confirmation of this pattern would be 1-2 strong bullish candles. The short squeeze wouldn't fully commence until around $5700, but the shorts that piled up just a few hundred dollars above the current price could be the fuel to get price to that level. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
BTC/USD 15min/4H charts (12/27/2018)Good morning, traders. Not a whole lot to talk about this morning but I'll do my best to give you multiple views of current price action. Bitcoin's price continues to trade sideways within a small TR which I have labeled on the 15 minute chart. We can also see that a possible Adam and Eve double bottom is building. This won't be confirmed unless price closes above the swing high between them at $3863.34. We can watch the RSI for a sign of strength which should manifest itself as RSI passing through the descending resistance line. If price closes above that swing high, then we should be looking for a target of around $4050 based on the height of the proposed double bottom. However, a close below the swing low of $3674.73 would suggest further downward momentum. Price is currently printing a symmetrical triangle. As usual, these patterns have no directional bias. The height of the triangle is about $170, so traders can use this as an initial target upon a close above the triangle's resistance or below its support by adding it to the former's point of breach or subtracting it from the latter's point of breach. So, as we were yesterday, we continue to watch the swing high and low for entry signals. Beware of possible bearish or bullish SFPs, which is why we always wait for a close and we don't immediately buy or sell the breach. The 4H chart shows us the large blue accumulation TR and the much smaller purple distribution or re-accumulation TR. Looking closely, we can see that price is currently ranging around the pink pivot at the bottom of the purple TR. It also shows us the red descending wedge and related target as well as the black descending channel and related target. As we can see, price is utilizing the top of that channel as support at this time. These targets suggest further upward movement, rather than down, but risk management demands that we see movement progress in that direction before we go long from here (i.e. a close above the swing high on the 15 minute chart). The two lower yellow zones give us an idea of likely reversal or, at the very least, consolidation areas if price heads down. A drop through that dashed ascending black support line would signal a likely move toward these areas. Traders need to be aware of possible hidden bearish divergence printing on the MACD's histogram if price can't get a surge up similar to the recent drop from the top of the purple TR. The histogram is quite short so the longer it takes price to move up once it goes, the more likely that is to play out. As always, another way to look at that move down and current sideways action, is that it is a checkmate pattern playing out which means we would expect a move back up to the drop's point of origin (top of the purple TR) in the same sudden fashion thereby eliminating the risk of hidden bearish divergence. Normally, I would at least expect a move up toward the top of the purple TR again, but we may not get that. Traders should not be too anxious to enter at this time, rather they should wait for price to give them a signal of likely direction. The most promising bit of data I am seeing at the moment is that volume on the reactions on the 15 minute chart continue to drop. The first step is for price to close above the pivot on this short TF, then above the red triangle, and finally above the swing high. If we can continue to see volume dropping on the reactions as price does that, we should be good to go toward the aforementioned targets. On the 4H TF, we want to see RSI push through its descending resistance line to signal stronger likely upward momentum which would suggest a move up to the top of the purple TR. As mentioned during yesterday morning's live stream, price has hit the 50% retracement of the move up so far. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
1
GBPUSD 15M Long | Bearish Engulfing & Bullish Checkmate PatternsCandle Pattern: Bullish Checkmate Trend: Up Trend Entry: With Trend TP/SL Ratio Target: 1 to 1 Estimated PIPs: 20 Fib Entry: 38.2% Fib TP: 76.4% Stochastic: midrange Inside EMA/SMA zone: just above BB: midpoint Notes: engulfing bear move to the downside. Currently in a bull checkmate just above the EMA/SMA zone. Might see a nice move to the upper BB bands. SL placed just under trend and EMA/SMA zone for safety possible extension to the 1.382 fib level
Long
by ironcondor