CHFJPY Low risk trades on the 1D MA50 closing.The CHFJPY pair is trading within a Bullish Megaphone for almost 4 months (since July 12) and is on a rebound on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Technically it priced the Higher High of the Megaphone 2 weeks ago so this should be the bearish leg towards its bottom (Higher Lows trend-line). Especially since the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) broke last month for the first time since March 29th, the trend should start shifting more towards bearish on the long-term.
Since however our focus is more on the short/ medium-term, we will continue to take it a step at a time and as long as the price is closing above the 1D MA50, we will be bullish, targeting the top of the Megaphone again at 169.100. If however we get a 1D candle close below the 1D MA50, we will take the loss and sell instead, targeting the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level (where the previous Higher Low was priced) at 161.900. Note that the 1D MACD is currently on a Bearish Cross, which favors selling. Still, our trading plan a low risk and high return approach.
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Chf-jpy
CHFJPY possible expansionAfter price broke previous structure with momentum, it started to consolidate forming what could be seen as something along the lines of a bullish flag or rising wedge. Price is currently above a demand zone that was left behind, with liquidity on both sides of the wedge. Price is unquestionably bullish, so it could use this demand zone with liquidity formed to expand and take out our recently formed weak swing high.
CHFJPY New bullish leg underwayCHFJPY is trading inside a Channel Up, which made on October 3rd the latest Higher Lon on the 1day MA100.
The price is already near Resistance A (166.550) and the 1day RSI bullish above the 60.00 level.
Buy and target 172.000 (less than the previous -9.60% rise).
Previous chart:
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CHFJPY, DOOMSDAY BEAR-MARKET Scenario, Wedge-TRIGGER-Setup!Hello There!
Welcome to my new analysis about CHFJPY on several timeframe perspectives. The CHFJPY conditions have accelerated to an unnatural dynamic recently as the pair moved into new highs instead of the massive overbought condition and the fact that this main reversal into the bearish direction should have setup already long times before especially considering the deficit of capital flows in CHF against the JPY there is a lot of bearish pressure present for CHF.
On the broader perspective the pair is forming this gigantic ascending-wedge-formation in which it already penetrated the lower boundaries with crucial bearish momentum spikes into the lower direction. This means that once a huge bearish pressure spike below the lower boundary has setup this will lead to many long liquidation triggers down the road and will lead to further continuations into this perspective. When the bearish pressure accelerates heavily this will also lead to the massive head-shoulder-formation to be completed triggering further bearish liquidations and momentum.
Especially with a further increase of the deficit in capital flows between CHF and JPY this will lead to the main market momentum to convert into a bearish dynamic and will lead to the underlying bearish scenario perspective to be confirmed by traders and investors moving into a more bearish sentiment consideration. Once the whole head-shoulder-formation has completed the momentum is likely to accelerate to the target-zones mentioned.
In this manner, thank you everybody for watching the analysis, support from your side is greatly appreciated.
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CHFJPY Holding the 1D MA50. Bullish until broken.The CHFJPY pair is trading above the 1D MA50, holding it tightly for the past 10 days. Technically that is the long-term Support trend-line since March 29, while the long-term pattern has been a Channel Up.
As long as the price is trading above the 1D MA50, we are bullish, targeting 171.000 (+8.00% increase). If the price breaks below the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up, sell towards the 1D MA200, targeting 155.000.
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CHF/JPY which way?Hello Traders
Our technical view has been shown in the chart.
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Chfjpy holding current band should have more upside if reversedWill be looking at h1 to go on long.
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CHFJPY Buy opportunity unless the 1D MA50 breaks.The CHFJPY pair has been on a very strong and steady rise, supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since the March 29 break-out. Our last signal was on April 28 (see chart below):
The situation hasn't changed and the trend remains bullish, aiming at a +8.00% extension. Our target is 171.000. If however the pair breaks below the 1D MA50, we will close it and open a sell instead, targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at 152.000.
P.S. Notice the Rectangle pattern on the 1D RSI. Since the price broke and remains (to this date) above the 1D MA50, every test of the Rectangle's bottom is a buy opportunity.
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CHFJPY Buy In this trading analysis, we will examine the CHF/JPY currency pair and provide insights into the prevailing short-term uptrend bias. Additionally, we will focus on the fundamental factors that indicate weakness in the Japanese Yen (JPY) and support the appreciation of the Swiss Franc (CHF) against the Yen in the near term.
Technical Analysis:
a) Short-Term Uptrend Pattern:
Upon analyzing recent price action, it is evident that CHF/JPY has been forming higher highs and higher lows, signaling a short-term uptrend pattern. This pattern indicates that buyers have been dominant in driving the currency pair higher over the short run.
b) Moving Averages:
The 50-day and 100-day moving averages for CHF/JPY are trending upward, confirming the presence of a short-term uptrend. Moreover, the current price is above these moving averages, further reinforcing the bullish bias.
c) Relative Strength Index (RSI):
The RSI, a momentum oscillator, is currently showing readings above 50, indicating bullish momentum. This supports the short-term uptrend bias for CHF/JPY.
d) Support and Resistance Levels:
Price action analysis also reveals that CHF/JPY has been consistently finding support at key levels, while overcoming resistance levels with relative ease. This reinforces the strength of the short-term uptrend.
Fundamental Analysis:
a) Weakening Japanese Yen (JPY):
Monetary Policy Divergence:
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has maintained an ultra-loose monetary policy, including negative interest rates and yield curve control, to stimulate the economy and counter deflation. In contrast, major central banks in other countries, including the Swiss National Bank (SNB), have been signaling a potential tightening of monetary policy due to improving economic conditions. This divergence in monetary policy outlooks contributes to JPY weakness.
Economic Growth Concerns:
Japan's economy has faced headwinds due to demographic challenges, sluggish consumer spending, and subdued inflation. Although there have been some signs of recovery, concerns about the sustainability of economic growth persist. In contrast, Switzerland's economy has shown more resilience, supported by strong exports and a favorable business environment, which enhances the attractiveness of CHF.
Safe-Haven Flows Ebbing:
The JPY is traditionally considered a safe-haven currency, attracting investors during times of heightened global uncertainty. However, with improving market sentiment and reduced geopolitical tensions, the demand for safe-haven assets like the JPY has diminished, causing the currency to weaken against its counterparts.
Conclusion:
Based on our technical and fundamental analysis, the CHF/JPY currency pair indicates a short-term uptrend bias. The technical indicators, such as the short-term uptrend pattern, moving averages, and RSI, all support the view that the currency pair is likely to continue its upward movement in the near term.
Furthermore, the fundamental factors, such as the weakening JPY due to monetary policy divergence, economic growth concerns, and reduced safe-haven demand, contribute to the appreciation of the CHF against the JPY. Traders should, however, remain cautious and consider implementing appropriate risk management strategies, as market conditions can change rapidly in the forex market.
🔥 MODIFICATION: CHFJPY 🔥 POSITION TRADE 🔥Being that Price Action (PA) continues to go long, please manage your trades as we take the risk of shorting it from here.
SSO1 @ 158.50 ⏳
SSO2 @ 152.60 ⏳
TP1 @ 141.33 (shaving 25%)
TP2 @ 131.85 (shaving 25%)
TP3 @ 124.90 (shaving 25%)
TP4 @ 114.15 (closing ALL Sell Orders)
BLO1 @ 111.55 ⏳
BLO2 @ 105.25 ⏳
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CHFJPY: Is starting a long term declineCHFJPY reached the top of the 1 year Channel Up by exceeding the 2.618 Fibonacci extension and as the 1W technicals turned overbought the last two weeks (RSI = 69.506, MACD = 3.780, ADX = 64.451), it is an indication that we should start selling.
During the previous long term correction (September 14th - January 13th) inside this Channel Up, the price had a controlled decline inside a Channel Down pattern before bottoming more aggressively. As such, we take this opportunity to enter a comfortable long term sell, and target a possible 1D MA200 connection (TP = 152.250).
Prior idea:
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🔥 NEW: CHFJPY 🔥 DAY TRADE 🔥VERY AGGRESSIVE POSITION
-SL @ 161.66 🚫
SLO2 @ 161.55 ⏳
SLO1 @ 161.44 ⏳
TP3 @ 161.38 (closing ALL Buy Orders)
TP2 @ 161.17 (shaving 25%)
TP1 @ 161.04 (shaving 25%)
BSO @ 160.85 ⏳
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CHFJPY Sell signal on the Channel Up.CHFJPY is trading inside a Channel Up in the past 4 months and right now turned sideways after hitting the top of the pattern.
This is a Higher High sell signal which has a triple level target.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
2. Buy at 157.500 and as long as the RSI (1d) holds the 53.50 Support.
Targets:
1. 157.500 (the 0.5 Fibonacci, Rising Support and potential contact with the MA50 1d).
2. 164.000 (Higher High).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) crossed under its MA giving an additional sell signal. Moreover the 53.50 Support, has given an accurate sell target and in turn buy entry, 3 times inside 2 months.
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CHF JPY - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISAdam Cole, Chief Currency Strategist at RBC Capital Markets, has highlighted recent policy shifts from the Swiss National Bank (SNB), the persistent threat of imported inflation, and increasing levels of verbal intervention in Japan.
"While the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may have let down some investors with a 25bp rate hike last week when many were hoping for a 50bp increase, it made its intentions clear: it's ready to buy CHF to provide suitable monetary conditions," says Cole.
Indeed, despite a somewhat disappointing rate hike, the SNB's commitment to provide appropriate monetary conditions and willingness to buy CHF indicate a robust approach to currency management.
The SNB's current focus on selling foreign currency further substantiates this view.
Furthermore, the Swiss central bank's leadership recognises the benefits of CHF appreciation in the current economic climate.
SNB Chair Jordan noted that the strong CHF has effectively acted as a shield against imported inflation, an increasingly prevalent issue globally.
"SNB Chair Jordan revealed over the weekend that from the present perspective, monetary policy might not be tight enough to anchor price stability. He also noted that CHF appreciation has shielded Switzerland from imported inflation," Cole adds.
In Japan, meanwhile, the situation is a bit more nuanced. Despite the increasing verbal interventions from officials, the strategists at RBC believe there is potential in shorting JPY at current levels.
"In Japan, officials are ratcheting up their verbal interventions. Despite this, and the rising risk of intervention, RBC sees potential in shorting JPY at current levels," says Cole.
The pullback in USD/JPY from Friday's highs does leave some room for maneuver. This environment, coupled with the SNB's policy stance and Switzerland's inflationary shield, has led RBC to take a bullish position on the CHF/JPY pair.
As the markets continue to evolve in response to inflation, interest rate adjustments, and economic policy decisions, the perspective offered by strategists like Cole is crucial.
CHFJPY Channel Up sell opportunityCHFJPY is trading inside a Channel Up following the March 20th low.
The price is now approaching the top of the Channel Up with the 1day RSI on a Double Top inside the overbough zone. That was a sell signal two time inside this pattern.
Sell with a max extension at 163.000 and target 158.500.
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CHFJPY Last rise before a strong correction.The CHFJPY pair had a strong 5 week rally since our last buy call (see chart below) on April 28:
Our final bullish target remains 159.000, which will make a perfect contact with the Higher Highs trend-line since January. But given the fact that the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) has been tested twice this year, we expect a stronger rejection this time and decline all the way to Support 1 (149.100), where it can make contact with the 1W MA50.
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CHFJPY: Buy this pullback on the 1D MA50.CHFJPY is trading inside a Channel Up for the past 12 months and currently pulling back after touching the 2.0 Fibonacci level. With the 1D time frame technically neutral (RSI = 53.315, MACD = 1.420, ADX = 33.250), the closer the price gets to the 1D MA50, the stronger of a buy opportunity it becomes. The fractal of July-August 2022 indicates that the next HH of the Channel Up should be on the 2.618 Fibonacci level at 160.000.
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