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EURCHF - Now OverSold ↗️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. As per my last analysis, attached on the chart, we have been looking for sell setups around the upper bound of the red channel. EURCHF traded lower and it is now approaching the lower bound of the channel. Moreover, the zone 0.945 is a strong support. 🏹 So the highlighted red circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the green support and lower red trendline acting as a non-horizontal support. As per my trading style: As EURCHF is sitting around the lower red circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
by TheSignalyst
6
A Traders' Weekly Playbook - energy markets to direct sentimentWe look at the scheduled economic data and US earnings this week and question if given the fluid news flow from the Middle East, these events move the dial or if geopolitics consumes the full attention and direct sentiment. We saw a rush to hedge portfolios on Friday ahead of a darkening picture emerging in the Middle East. The situation is dynamic and it's too early to say if the hedges placed on Friday are unwarranted, but there have been pockets of positive news flow – for example, US Secretary of State Blinken saying aid will get to Gaza via the Egyptian border, and Israel opening water supply to Southern Gaza, with over 600k Gazans moving south. A call between US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Iranian officials is a development, with the US warning not to increase aggression. As Israel's ground offensive pushes into Gaza, risk and energy markets will look for headlines and actions from Iranian officials who have stated they have a duty to come to the aid of the Palestinians. Watching crude and Nat Gas The energy markets are the first derivative to drive broad market sentiment this week, with crude and Nat Gas leading investors to trade volatility (options), as well as classic hedges such as gold and Treasuries. Amid a backdrop of ‘higher for longer’, and the US CPI inflation gaining 0.4% in September, higher energy prices could deliver a one-way punch to sentiment. Given market participants are generally poor at pricing risk around geopolitical developments, it's no wonder most have looked to mitigate drawdown - but at this stage, while there is a growing wall of worry to potentially climb, the probability is traders will use strength in risky assets to reduce exposures. The probability of supply disruptions is one of the key aspects here – last week we saw the closure of Chevron’s Tamar gas field in Israel – the focus has been rerouting that gas from the Leviathan gas fields in the North of Israel – if the market feels this gas field could be impacted then could see a spike in EU NG. Many energy experts see the risk of a supply event here as fairly low, but should developments escalate on various fronts, then the market will increase the possibility of a disruption. The bear case for risk, given the potential for a significant rally in EU NG and crude, would be where the market increases the probability of Iran curtailing the movement of LNG through the Straits of Hormuz, where notably Qatar LNG supply (20% of the global LNG market) would be impacted. Again, this seems a low probability at this stage, but that will depend on Iran’s ongoing involvement and any new sanctions placed on them. Downside risk to the EUR If EU NG spikes higher in the near term, then talk of a renewed energy crisis in Europe will resurface and the EURUSD could be headed to parity. As said, this probability is a lower risk right now, but when considering the risks, this is the market concern that will be monitored. While sentiment will move around on each headline, we revisit the hedging flows seen on Friday, as traders de-risked ahead of potential gapping risk – It’s too hard to make a call on whether these hedges are partly unwound in Asia. Where did we see the hedging flows? • Gold rallied 3.4% on Friday - a 3-sigma move and the second biggest day since 2020. A massive 299k gold futures contracts traded, the highest since May. XAUUSD 1-month implied volatility has pushed to 15% and 1-week call volatility has increased to a 1.75 vol premium to puts – the most since March. • The XAUUSD price closed at a 2.8% premium to the 5-day moving average, which shows the sheer pace of the intraday rally, with limited intraday mean reversion – sellers just stood aside. • Brent crude closed 5% higher with our Brent price closing over $91 and eyeing a move back to the recent highs of $96 – WTI Crude futures saw the curve lift and go further into backwardation – this typically means the market sees a higher probability of a supply shock. • In equities, the VIX traded to a high of 20.78%, settling at 19.3% (+2.6 vols on the day) – a VIX index at 19.3% implies daily % changes in the S&P500 of 1.2% and 2.7% on the week. • S&P 1-month put implied vol now trades at a 5.46 vol premium to 1-month calls – This volatility ‘Skew’ is now the most bearish since May – traders are ramping up the demand for downside puts to protect in case of drawdown. • Market breadth was ok with 46% of S&P500 stocks closed higher – there was no blanket selling, but a rotation from tech and consumer names into energy and defensive sectors - staples, utilities, and healthcare. • While we saw some buying in petrocurrencies (NOK & CAD) but traders played defense buying into the CHF & JPY – short NZDCHF was the play of the day (-1.4%), with GBPCHF breaking the long-run range lows. • US Treasuries rallied with 10’s closing -8bp and 30’s -10bp. Marquee event risks for the week ahead: • NZ Q3 CPI (17 Oct 08:45 AEDT) – the market consensus is for 1.9% QoQ / 5.9% YoY (from 6%) – NZDCHF was the biggest percentage mover on Friday following the risk aversion flows – will the sellers follow through? • UK jobless claims/wage data (17 Oct 17:00 AEDT) – the consensus for wages sits at 7.8% (unchanged) – UK swaps place a 29% chance of a hike from the BoE at the 2 Nov BoE meeting, will the wage data influence that pricing? GBPCHF trades the weakest levels since Oct 2022 and looks likely to be sold on rallies • US retail sales (17 Oct 23:30 AEDT) – the advanced read is expected at 0.3% mom and the ‘control group’ element at -0.1%. The retail numbers could influence market sentiment, especially if we see a big miss to expectations, with USDJPY and USDCHF the pairs most sensitive to a weaker outcome. Gold could find further buyers on a downside surprise. • Canada CPI (23:30 AEDT) – headline CPI is expected at 4% yoy, with core CPI eyed at 4% yoy • Fed chair Jay Powell speaks at the Economic Club of NY (20 Oct 03:00 AEDT) – the highlight of the week. Expect Powell to focus on the view that moves in the bond market are mitigating the need for the Fed to hike further. • China Q3 GDP (18 Oct 13:00 AEDT) – consensus is 4.5% yoy (from 6.3%) – likely a trough in China’s GDP, with better levels ahead. • China Industrial production, fixed asset investment, retail sales (18 Oct 13:00 AEDT) • UK Sept CPI (18 Oct 17:00 AEDT) – the consensus for headline CPI is 6.6% yoy (from 6.7%) / core CPI at 6% yoy (6.2%) – a risk to manage for traders holding GBP exposures • EU CPI (18 Oct 20:00 AEDT) – no change expected in the revision, with headline CPI eyed at 4.3% /core CPI at 4.5%. Should be a non-event for the EUR and EU equities. • Australia employment report (19 Oct 11:30 AEDT) – the consensus estimate is for 20k jobs to have been created in September and the U/E rate unchanged at 3.7% - expect the impact from Aussie jobs to be short-lived – preference to work sell limits in AUDUSD on the day and sell into strength. • China new homes prices (19 Oct 12:30 AEDT) • China 1 & 5-year Prime Rate (20 Oct 12:15 AEDT) – the consensus is no change with the 1yr rate to stay at 5.2% & the 5yr rate at 3.45% US Earnings (with the implied move on earnings) – Goldman Sachs (3.7%), Bank of America (4.6%), Tesla (5.2%), Netflix (7.5%) Central bank speeches: BoE – Huw Pill, Sam Woods, Swati Dhingra ECB – Villeroy, Knot, Centeno, Guindos, Holzmann Fed – see schedule below
NYMEX:TTF1!Long
by Pepperstone
5
AUDCHF: Heading back to the descending channel boundary and ATLThis pair has been following a descending channel for months and even with positive data last week for the aussie and weaker performance for the swiss, the general direction was maintained. We've broken back below the mid point of my channel and we seem destined to ultimately be heading for the ATL where I expect a strong bounce. I generally look at correlation with gold, this pair tends to fall with gold from what I can see, but more of an observation than analysis (which I should look to do).
Short
by Finchcliffe
3
EURCHF Long term downtrend but this Support is holding.EURCHF is trading inside a Channel Down since January and recently priced the latest Lower High. We approach Support (1) which is a level that has held since July 27th. Trading Plan: 1. Buy as long as a (1d) candle doesn't close under Support (1). 2. Sell if it closes under it. Targets: 1. 0.96500 (top of Channel Down). 2. 0.93800 (-3.30% decline from the top, as all the bearish legs of the Channel Down have done so far). Tips: 1. The MACD (1d) is under a Sell Cross. This favors the bearish trend, this is why the stop loss conditions should be so strict (candle closing under Support 1). Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
by TradingBrokersView
1
More correction down for Audchf?Likely more down side. **Find out more from my Tradingview Stream this week** *************************************************************************************** Hello there! If you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏 And if you would like to show further support for me, you can gift me some coins on tradingview! 😁 Thank you! Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared. Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
Short
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
2
NZDCHF Sell near the 1D MA200The NZDCHF pair has been trading within a Falling Wedge pattern since the March 28 2022 High. As you can see the two so far corrective waves have followed a similar Lower Lows structure. The price is currently on the bullish leg to the Lower Highs trend-line, supported by both the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The 1D MACD Bearish Cross that is about to be completed calls for a sell preparation, as every Bearish Cross above the 0.0 level since March 2022 has been a sell signal. The closer the price gets to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), the more efficient the sell entry will be. We will target a projected 1D MA50 contact at 0.53500. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
2
CADCHF Pure Resistance - Support trade.The CADCHF pair is trading within a 5-month Rectangle pattern. Following the rejection on the 0.68310 Resistance and establishing the price action below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), it should begin the final bearish phase towards the 0.64600 Support. The 1D MA50 is in between but after the 1D MACD formed a Bearish Cross, it shouldn't hold. Our target is 0.64800. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
CHFJPY - Looking For Sell Setups ↘️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. CHFJPY has been overall bearish trading inside the falling broadening wedge pattern in red, and it is currently approaching the upper trendline. Moreover, the zone 164.5 is a resistance zone. 🏹 So the highlighted purple circle is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the blue resistance and upper red trendline. As per my trading style: As CHFJPY approaches the purple circle zone, I will be looking for bearish reversal setups (like a double top pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
by TheSignalyst
4
USDCHF 9/10/23US dollar to the Swiss franc is showing us exactly what we'd like to see which is a reversed version of our USD secondary pairs so for example in this case we have a bearish swing range showing us that the gap is at the low of the range in our usd secondary pairs we have the reverse where our gap is at the top of the range and we are in a bullish directional range now the gap on the US dollar Swiss franc was not as large as our other primary pairs but we have still had a gap at market open which has now been filled due to the high impact news on Friday we created a huge 5 minute range this range needs to be broken either higher or lower to confirm our manipulated low until that we will just continue to follow the internal price action to possibly find some movements for a short term entry. Remember to always read order flow and follow what price is showing you instead of trading based on your desired direction. And, as always, stick to your risk and your plan. We'll be closely monitoring market openings and price action throughout the week. If you find this analysis useful, let us know in the comments below and hit the boost button to show your support. Here's to a successful week of trading!
by PipSurfingSociety
CADCHF - Over 1000pips Banked. What Is Next?CADCHF has given us over 1000pip worth of setups. We are now looking for one more trade setup to complete this bearish wave. We know that Waves 1, 3 and 5 have a 5 wave structure. We are currently in wave 5 and looking for 5 subwaves to complete the bearish sequence. Trade idea: - We are in subwave 1 (of wave 5) - Watch for subwave 2 retracement - price should not go above 0.683 = invalidation level - Targets: 0.645 (300pips), 0.62 (550pips) Goodluck and as always, trade safe! See our previous CADCHF setups below:
by WicktatorFX
7