A massive 300+ Pips Drop on the USDCHFWe have seen prices in a long bullish retracement over the past weeks.
Price dropped off from a Supply Zone around 0.8875 on July 10, 2023. In nearly 6 weeks, we saw prices drop to create Sell side liquidity at 0.85533, after which prices began to rally in a gradual bullish trend towards our supply zone.
We had patiently waited for prices to come into the zone and from there looked to see some Bearish reversals.
Currently, we can see that prices have come back into the Supply Zone at 0.8875, and our long-awaited Bearish reversal is in place. Market is currently having a bearish momentum.
By my personal estimation, I see an 80% chance of this Bearish momentum holding. If it holds and the market plays according to our analysis, we hope to see prices drop to clear out sell-side liquidity at the 0.85533 level and beyond.
We expect a Bearish run to go a minimum of 380 pips, to enable it to clear the lows of the sell side liquidity before we begin to look for a possible bullish pullback after a long Bearish push.
Chf
USDCHF remains in a corrective channel.USDCHF - 24h expiry
Trading within a Corrective Channel formation.
A higher correction is expected.
Short term momentum is bearish.
Prices expected to stall near trend line support.
Trend line support is located at 0.8780.
We look to Buy at 0.8784 (stop at 0.8754)
Our profit targets will be 0.8854 and 0.8874
Resistance: 0.8840 / 0.8860 / 0.8876
Support: 0.8821 / 0.8800 / 0.8780
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
USDCHF - Oh Look! A Channel...USDCHF is in a steady decline within a channel. We appear to be in a leading, which is made up for 5 waves consisting of 3subwaves each. We are in wave 4 now and looking for the final 5th wave lower
We are approaching the channel resistance and the 38.2 fibonacci. Expecting a rejection here.
Trade Idea:
- Watch for rejection at the channel
- Risk entry on rejection of channel
- Safe entry on break of the red trendline
- Targets: 0.855 (350pips), 0.83 (550pips)
Goodluck and as always, trade safe!
EURCHF Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring EURCHF for a selling opportunity around 0.95900 zone, EURCHF is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 0.95900 support and resistance zone.
Trade safe, Joe.
✨ NEW: EURCHF ✨ UT SWING ✨-SL @ 1.0100 🚫 (conservative)
-SL @ 1.0080 🚫 (aggressive)
SLO @ 1.0025 ⏳
TP5 @ 1.0000 (closing ALL Buy Positions)
TP4 @ 0.9950 (shaving)
TP3 @ 0.9830 (shaving)
TP2 @ 0.9755 (shaving)
TP1 @ 0.9640 (shaving)
BLO1 @ 0.9490 ⏳
BLO2 @ 0.9465 ⏳
-SL @ 0.9430 🚫(aggressive)
-SL @ 0.9400 🚫 (conservative)
CURVE ANALYSIS
Based on the 1-day timeframe, the EURCHF curve analysis is still bearish ( TEMPORARILY ). The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has been keeping interest rates low, which makes the Swiss franc an attractive haven currency. This has been putting downward pressure on the euro. The price has been trending downward since August 11, 2023, and the RSI indicator is approaching oversold levels.
However, Price Action has entered the Demand Zone, which suggests that IN THE NEAR FUTURE the EURCHF is likely to experience a trend change to the upside:
— The price has been trading above the 200-day moving average for the past few days.
— The MACD indicator has crossed above the signal line.
— The RSI indicator is in the oversold territory.
CADCHF LONG/ BUY🔰 Pair Name : CAD/CHF
🔰 Time Frame : 4H/ DAILY
🔰 Scale Type : MID Scale
🔰 Direction : Long/ Buy
📈 Comprehensive Fundamental and Technical Analysis Update 📊📉
Over an extended time frame, the prevailing price action underscores a consistent consolidation pattern, confined within the well-defined range of 0.6480 to 0.6610. Our perspective remains firmly inclined toward a bullish trajectory, in alignment with the unwavering determination of the Federal Reserve to execute a series of deliberate interest rate hikes. This strategic approach seeks to effectively counteract impending inflationary pressures, with heightened emphasis on the latter half of 2023. Anticipating a notably robust performance from the Canadian Dollar (CAD), contrasted by the comparatively subdued Swiss Franc (CHF), it is imperative to maintain vigilant awareness of potential interventions that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) might introduce, potentially influencing the dynamic behavior of CHF.
🛢️ Noteworthy is the imminent conclusion of the oil price retest phase, positioning it for a forthcoming upward trajectory. This element introduces an additional layer of complexity to our analysis. However, it remains pivotal to acknowledge the lingering potential for SNB intervention, which retains its significance in shaping the CHF landscape.
🔍 Elaborating on our recent correspondence pertaining to the CAD/CHF pair, a discernible disparity has emerged, prominently depicted on the daily chart. This incongruity serves as a fundamental facet within the operational framework of a robust market, as historical precedent underscores the tendency for such divergences to eventually reconcile, consequently fostering the accumulation of liquidity within the market environment.
Prudent and judicious decision-making should be exercised in your trading pursuits! 📈📉👍
USDCHF - The Trend Is Your Friend 🤝Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
USDCHF has been overall bearish trading inside the falling channel in blue, however it is currently approaching around the upper trendline.
Moreover, the zone 0.885 is a strong resistance zone.
🏹 So the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the green resistance and upper blue trendline.
As per my trading style:
As USDCHF approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bearish reversal setups (like a double top pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
CAD/CHF is Correcting 2!Hello Traders
Our technical view has been shown in the chart.
If you like it then Support us by Like, Following, and Sharing.
Thanks For Reading
Team Fortuna
-RC
(Disclaimer: Published ideas and other Contents on this page are for educational purposes and do not include a financial recommendation. Trading is Risky, so before any action do your research.)
CADCHF: One More Bullish Confirmation 🇨🇦🇨🇭
As I predicted, CADCHF bounced from a key daily structure support last week.
Analysing 4H time frame, I spotted one more bullish signal.
This time, the pair broke and closed above a resistance line of a falling wedge pattern.
It indicates that the market may potentially go even higher.
Next goals - 0.6524 / 0.6544
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
GBPCHF Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in tomorrow's trading session we are monitoring GBPCHF for a selling opportunity around 1.1300 zone, GBPCHF is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 1.1300 support and resistance zone.
Trade safe, Joe.
EURCHF: Important Zone to Watch 🇪🇺🇺🇸
EURCHF is trading in a long-term bearish trend.
After a consolidation, the price violated a key horizontal support and closed below that.
The broken structure and a major falling trend line now compose the contracting zone of supply.
I will expect a bearish movement from that at least to 0.953 support.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
CHFJPY Buy opportunity unless the 1D MA50 breaks.The CHFJPY pair has been on a very strong and steady rise, supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since the March 29 break-out. Our last signal was on April 28 (see chart below):
The situation hasn't changed and the trend remains bullish, aiming at a +8.00% extension. Our target is 171.000. If however the pair breaks below the 1D MA50, we will close it and open a sell instead, targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at 152.000.
P.S. Notice the Rectangle pattern on the 1D RSI. Since the price broke and remains (to this date) above the 1D MA50, every test of the Rectangle's bottom is a buy opportunity.
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CADCHF: Pullback From Key Level Explained 🇨🇦🇨🇭
CADCHF is testing a key daily structure support.
The price formed a double bottom on that on 1H time frame.
The neckline of the pattern is now broken.
It signifies a local change of character from bearish to bullish
and a highly probable pullback.
Goals: 0.6502 / 0.6707
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
CADCHF BuyTrade Rationale:
The CAD/CHF pair is currently showing signs of short-term bullish momentum, presenting a potential trading opportunity. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) has displayed strength against the Swiss Franc (CHF), indicating a possible upward movement in the exchange rate.
Technical Analysis:
Support Levels: The pair has found support at a key level, indicating potential buying interest.
Moving Averages: Short-term moving averages are crossing above longer-term ones, suggesting a shift towards bullish sentiment.
MACD Indicator: The MACD histogram is showing positive divergence, indicating possible upward momentum.
RSI Indicator: The RSI is moving towards the overbought zone, suggesting increased buying pressure.
Trade Execution:
Entry: I recommend entering a long position at or near the current market price
Stop-Loss: Set a stop-loss order at previous low to limit potential losses in case the market moves against the trade.
Take Profit: Consider taking profits at X.6-7xxx or below, where resistance is likely to be encountered.
Risk Management:
Position Size: Determine an appropriate position size that aligns with your risk tolerance and trading strategy.
Risk-Reward Ratio: Ensure that the potential reward justifies the risk, aiming for a favorable risk-reward ratio.
Monitoring and Adjustment:
Stay vigilant and monitor the trade as it progresses. If the market behaves contrary to the bullish perspective, be prepared to adjust your position or exit the trade based on your risk management strategy.
Disclaimer: Trading in the foreign exchange market involves a significant level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. This trade summary is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a qualified financial professional before making trading decisions.
🔥 NEW: USDCHF 🔥 UT SWING 🔥SLO @ 0.9085
TP4 @ 0.9070
TP3 @ 0.9020
TP2 @ 0.8915
TP1 @ 0.8850
BSO @ 0.8785
The USDCHF pair has historically held the highest rated positive correlation to the DXY.
The correlation coefficient between these two pairs is typically around +0.90, which means that they move in the same direction most of the time.
This is because the Swiss Franc is seen as a safe haven currency, and when investors are looking for safety, they tend to buy USD/CHF.
Timeframe Average ATR
1D 70 pips
4H 40 pips
1H 27 pips
30M 17 pips
15M 13 pips
10M 11 pips
5M 9 pips
1M 11 pips
USDCHF remains in a slight uptrend.USDCHF - 24h expiry
Our short-term bias remains positive.
Intraday dips continue to attract buyers and there is no clear indication that this sequence for trading is coming to an end.
50 4-hour EMA is at 0.8769.
The sequence for trading is higher highs and lows.
Remains bullish while above last week's low.
We look to Buy at 0.8771 (stop at 0.8739)
Our profit targets will be 0.8851 and 0.8871
Resistance: 0.8814 / 0.8828 / 0.8850
Support: 0.8790 / 0.8770 / 0.8750
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
EURCHF Buy opportunity on a MACD Bullish Cross.The EURCHF pair eventually hit our 0.95555 bearish target as set by our sell signal in June (see chart below):
The price is now past a 1D MACD Bullish Cross and on the bullish wave of the 7 month Channel Down. We therefore go long again targeting Resistance 1 at 0.96510 on the short-term and if a 1D candle closes above it, we will extend it towards the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) at 0.97100.
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EURCHF Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring EURCHF for a selling opportunity around 0.96300 zone, EURCHF is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 0.96300 support and resistance zone.
Trade safe, Joe.
USDCHF Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring USDCHF for a selling opportunity around 0.88300 zone, USDCHF is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 0.883 support and resistance zone.
Trade safe, Joe.