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CHF at Key Technical Support⏰CHF at key levels ⏰ Overview The Swiss Franc is at key technical support levels on several pairs. The CHF strength is driven by the Israel-Hamas war. The Details The support levels will likely not hold if there is further escalation in the region. Expect the support levels to break and ***CHF pairs to move lower. If by some miracle, the war becomes stagnant or things de-escalate, the support levels could hold. Things to consider Buying the CHF is painful due to Switzerland's low-interest rate. The swap rate offered by most brokers is off-putting. A better trade may be a de-escalation trade, though we could be waiting a while The Swiss Franc continues to downtrend longer-term. A de-escalation trade may catch a downside correction move rather than a long-term uptrend. The CHF could strengthen on global recession fears, possibly in the coming months.
by Samuel_Morton_Trader
CADCHF - Around The Lower Bound Again!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. on Weekly: Left Chart After rejecting the 0.68 resistance, CADCHF traded lower and it is currently hovering around the lower bound of the range, and support 0.65. on H1: Right Chart For the bulls to take over, and activate our buy setup, we need a break above the last high in gray. Meanwhile, CADCHF would be bearish and can still trade lower inside the green weekly support. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
by TheSignalyst
6
USDCHF Stuck within the 1D MA50 - MA100. Break-out trade.The USDCHF pair is pulling back after making nearly a Lower High on the long-term Channel Down and hit last hit the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). Today it is testing the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as a Resistance, so the closing of the 1D candle either way will most likely decide the next trend. Above the 1D MA50, we will buy, targeting 0.94000 (Channel Up Higher High and Resistance 2). Below the 1D MA100, we will quick sell, targeting 0.88000 (Channel Up bottom). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
by TradingShot
1
USDCHF 22/10/23UC is another example of bearish price action we know from what we have seen of our other pairs that this is likely to carry over into this week but we will more than likely look to fill some of our high areas, which would match up nicely with what we know of our other pairs for example GU. Main focus here is to take out a major high or low, as it stands we have a lot of liquid on both sides of the market, so we don't want to get caught up in anything we don't need to be in! Remember to always read order flow and follow what price is showing you instead of trading based on your desired direction. And, as always, stick to your risk and your plan. We'll be closely monitoring market openings and price action throughout the week. If you find this analysis useful, let us know in the comments below and hit the boost button to show your support. Here's to a successful week of trading!
by PipSurfingSociety
SUN 22 OCT USDCHF BEARISH TRADEIn the chart, the USD/CHF price has been following a bearish channel, consistently making lower lows and lower highs. The next opportunity for traders is to wait for the price to pull back to the support level that has become resistance. With a risk-reward ratio of 3, traders have several strategies available: A) Wait for the price to pull back and demonstrate a bearish candlestick pattern such as a pinbar, engulfing pattern, inside bar, doji, etc. This approach relies on confirmation from price action signals. B) Place a limit order at the structural level, anticipating a reversal from that point. This strategy does not wait for confirmation and assumes the price will respect the historical structure. C) Combine both methods by allocating half of your capital to enter with a limit order at the structure level and the other half upon confirmation of a bearish candlestick pattern. This approach balances confirmation with the potential of an earlier entry.
Short
by kennkennntl
2
UsdChf weakest among allLooking at Uchf , if usd is to turn weak, will look more into shorting this pair **Find out more from my Tradingview Stream this week** *************************************************************************************** Hello there! If you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏 And if you would like to show further support for me, you can gift me some coins on tradingview! 😁 Thank you! Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared. Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
Short
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
2
A Traders’ Weekly Playbook; Buying risk when its darkestA Traders’ Playbook; Buying risk when its darkest Equities continue to find few friends and reviewing so many of the daily and weekly set-ups in our core equity indices, standing in front of the move and countering seems a low probability outcome at this juncture. The China CN50 and AUS200 look particularly weak, while EU equity markets are in steep decline, with price breaking level after level. In the US, the NAS100 sits on a huge support zone seen between 14,560 and 14,430, with the US500 eyeing the 4 Oct swing low at 4200 – if these levels are broken this week and SPX 20-day realised volatility rises further, then market chatter will centre on the S&P500 pushing towards 4000. The contrarians have started to look at sentiment and throw out a range of charts, including deteriorating market breadth and the number of stocks (in an index) below the 20-, 50- or 200-day moving average, that have an RSI below 30, or resides at 4-week lows. On current standings we’re not yet near a point of maximum bearishness. The CNN Fear and Greed can do a good job capturing the mood across markets and this says a similar message. The time for contrarianism is approaching – and who doesn’t love a tradeable V-bottom – but it isn’t now. Maybe corporate earnings can have a more positive effect and stabilise sentiment. With 47% of the S&P 500 market cap reporting this week, this is the week it could happen, and guidance and outlooks from CEOs can play a more important role. The macro matters though, and we continue to focus on geopolitical headlines, moves in the US 10- and 30-year Treasury, volatility, and energy markets. With bonds offering no defence in the portfolio, traders continue to manage drawdown risk through volatility, gold, and the CHF as the preeminent hedges. The USD hasn’t performed as well as some had hoped through this period of equity drawdown and rise in long-end bond yields. One factor is that we’re seeing a rise in EU and Chinese growth momentum, so the rest of the world is looking less bad. We also regress and understand that the CHF acts more like gold in times of geopolitical tensions, and after a 7.8% rally between July and October (in the DXY), consolidation in the USD index was always a possibility. Keep an eye on USDCNH and USDJPY as a guide, and the fact we see both pairs in a sideways consolidation is keeping broad G10 FX volatility subdued and a factor keeping the USD from moving freely on a broad FX basis. As many try and pick a turn in equity markets, a bounce in risk this week can't be ruled out, and we need to be open-minded to all possibilities – its fighting an evolving momentum though and many will prefer to initiative (or add) shorts into any rallies, rather than fight it. Buying risk when it's darkest and sentiment is rock bottom is a well-adopted market philosophy but I’m not sure we’re there just yet. Marquee data points for next week: • EU manufacturing/services PMI (24 Oct 19:00) – the market consensus is we see the diffusion index print 43.6 (from 43.4 in September) and the services index at 48.6 (from 48.7) • UK manufacturing/services PMI (24 Oct 19:30) -– the market consensus is we see the diffusion index print 44.6 (from 44.3 in September) and services at 49.3 (unchanged 49.3). A better services print could see a big reaction in GBP given how short the market has got. • Australia Q3 CPI (25 Oct 11:30 AEDT) – the consensus sees headline CPI at 5.3% yoy (from 6%) / core CPI at 5.0% yoy (5.9%). The Aussie interest rates markets price a hike on 7 Nov at 34% - so, if we get a CPI print above 5.4%, we could see the market pricing a hike at the November RBA meeting at or above 50%. AUDNZD has been the best expression for AUD bulls but is coming into a supply zone around 1.0850. • US S&P manufacturing/services PMI (25 Oct 00:45 AEDT) – a data point the market could completely ignore or could be the trigger for a sizeable reaction – the consensus is we see manufacturing at 49.9 (from 49.8) and services at 49.9 (50.1). • BoC meeting Canada (26 Oct 01:00 AEDT) – the swaps market ascribes very little chance of a hike at this meeting, and only 6bp of hikes through to March 2024 – if the tone of the statement suggests a greater risk of hikes in the future, then the CAD should rally. • ECB meeting (26 Oct 23:15 AEDT) – the ECB won’t hike at this meeting, so the focus falls on their guidance on the economic outlook and hurdle for hikes in the future. There will also be a focus on the bank’s plans to increase QT, and even look at the timeline on sales from APP and PEPP bond purchase program – if this is brought forward from Jan 2025 the market would see this EUR positive. • US Core PCE inflation (27 Oct 23:30 AEDT) – US headline PCE inflation is eyed at 3.4% (from 3.5%) and core 3.7% (3.9%) – it would have to be a big number to put a hike at the Dec FOMC meeting on the table – a November hike is not up for debate and the market sees a hold as a full-gone conclusion. • Chile central bank meeting (27 Oct 08:00 AEDT) – The market looks for a 50bp rate cut, but there are risks for 75bp – can USDCLP print new cycle highs? Central bank speakers: Fed speakers – Powell (26 Oct 07:35 AEDT – unlikely to offer any new market intel). Waller (27 Oct 00:00 AEDT) and Barr BoE speakers – Cuncliffe (27 Oct 03:45) RBA speakers – Gov Bullock (24 Oct 19:00 AEDT) & Bullock and Kent both appearing at the Senate testimony (26 Oct 09:00 AEDT) Marquee US earnings and the implied move on the day of earnings (derived from options pricing) – on the week we see 43% of the S&P500 market cap reporting. Marquee names include - Alphabet (4.8%), Microsoft (4.1%), IBM (2.7%), Meta (8.6%), Amazon (6.4%), Intel (6.6%), Exxon (2.4%)
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Short
by Pepperstone
EURCHF - Now OverSold ↗️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. As per my last analysis, attached on the chart, we have been looking for sell setups around the upper bound of the red channel. EURCHF traded lower and it is now approaching the lower bound of the channel. Moreover, the zone 0.945 is a strong support. 🏹 So the highlighted red circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the green support and lower red trendline acting as a non-horizontal support. As per my trading style: As EURCHF is sitting around the lower red circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
by TheSignalyst
6
A Traders' Weekly Playbook - energy markets to direct sentimentWe look at the scheduled economic data and US earnings this week and question if given the fluid news flow from the Middle East, these events move the dial or if geopolitics consumes the full attention and direct sentiment. We saw a rush to hedge portfolios on Friday ahead of a darkening picture emerging in the Middle East. The situation is dynamic and it's too early to say if the hedges placed on Friday are unwarranted, but there have been pockets of positive news flow – for example, US Secretary of State Blinken saying aid will get to Gaza via the Egyptian border, and Israel opening water supply to Southern Gaza, with over 600k Gazans moving south. A call between US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Iranian officials is a development, with the US warning not to increase aggression. As Israel's ground offensive pushes into Gaza, risk and energy markets will look for headlines and actions from Iranian officials who have stated they have a duty to come to the aid of the Palestinians. Watching crude and Nat Gas The energy markets are the first derivative to drive broad market sentiment this week, with crude and Nat Gas leading investors to trade volatility (options), as well as classic hedges such as gold and Treasuries. Amid a backdrop of ‘higher for longer’, and the US CPI inflation gaining 0.4% in September, higher energy prices could deliver a one-way punch to sentiment. Given market participants are generally poor at pricing risk around geopolitical developments, it's no wonder most have looked to mitigate drawdown - but at this stage, while there is a growing wall of worry to potentially climb, the probability is traders will use strength in risky assets to reduce exposures. The probability of supply disruptions is one of the key aspects here – last week we saw the closure of Chevron’s Tamar gas field in Israel – the focus has been rerouting that gas from the Leviathan gas fields in the North of Israel – if the market feels this gas field could be impacted then could see a spike in EU NG. Many energy experts see the risk of a supply event here as fairly low, but should developments escalate on various fronts, then the market will increase the possibility of a disruption. The bear case for risk, given the potential for a significant rally in EU NG and crude, would be where the market increases the probability of Iran curtailing the movement of LNG through the Straits of Hormuz, where notably Qatar LNG supply (20% of the global LNG market) would be impacted. Again, this seems a low probability at this stage, but that will depend on Iran’s ongoing involvement and any new sanctions placed on them. Downside risk to the EUR If EU NG spikes higher in the near term, then talk of a renewed energy crisis in Europe will resurface and the EURUSD could be headed to parity. As said, this probability is a lower risk right now, but when considering the risks, this is the market concern that will be monitored. While sentiment will move around on each headline, we revisit the hedging flows seen on Friday, as traders de-risked ahead of potential gapping risk – It’s too hard to make a call on whether these hedges are partly unwound in Asia. Where did we see the hedging flows? • Gold rallied 3.4% on Friday - a 3-sigma move and the second biggest day since 2020. A massive 299k gold futures contracts traded, the highest since May. XAUUSD 1-month implied volatility has pushed to 15% and 1-week call volatility has increased to a 1.75 vol premium to puts – the most since March. • The XAUUSD price closed at a 2.8% premium to the 5-day moving average, which shows the sheer pace of the intraday rally, with limited intraday mean reversion – sellers just stood aside. • Brent crude closed 5% higher with our Brent price closing over $91 and eyeing a move back to the recent highs of $96 – WTI Crude futures saw the curve lift and go further into backwardation – this typically means the market sees a higher probability of a supply shock. • In equities, the VIX traded to a high of 20.78%, settling at 19.3% (+2.6 vols on the day) – a VIX index at 19.3% implies daily % changes in the S&P500 of 1.2% and 2.7% on the week. • S&P 1-month put implied vol now trades at a 5.46 vol premium to 1-month calls – This volatility ‘Skew’ is now the most bearish since May – traders are ramping up the demand for downside puts to protect in case of drawdown. • Market breadth was ok with 46% of S&P500 stocks closed higher – there was no blanket selling, but a rotation from tech and consumer names into energy and defensive sectors - staples, utilities, and healthcare. • While we saw some buying in petrocurrencies (NOK & CAD) but traders played defense buying into the CHF & JPY – short NZDCHF was the play of the day (-1.4%), with GBPCHF breaking the long-run range lows. • US Treasuries rallied with 10’s closing -8bp and 30’s -10bp. Marquee event risks for the week ahead: • NZ Q3 CPI (17 Oct 08:45 AEDT) – the market consensus is for 1.9% QoQ / 5.9% YoY (from 6%) – NZDCHF was the biggest percentage mover on Friday following the risk aversion flows – will the sellers follow through? • UK jobless claims/wage data (17 Oct 17:00 AEDT) – the consensus for wages sits at 7.8% (unchanged) – UK swaps place a 29% chance of a hike from the BoE at the 2 Nov BoE meeting, will the wage data influence that pricing? GBPCHF trades the weakest levels since Oct 2022 and looks likely to be sold on rallies • US retail sales (17 Oct 23:30 AEDT) – the advanced read is expected at 0.3% mom and the ‘control group’ element at -0.1%. The retail numbers could influence market sentiment, especially if we see a big miss to expectations, with USDJPY and USDCHF the pairs most sensitive to a weaker outcome. Gold could find further buyers on a downside surprise. • Canada CPI (23:30 AEDT) – headline CPI is expected at 4% yoy, with core CPI eyed at 4% yoy • Fed chair Jay Powell speaks at the Economic Club of NY (20 Oct 03:00 AEDT) – the highlight of the week. Expect Powell to focus on the view that moves in the bond market are mitigating the need for the Fed to hike further. • China Q3 GDP (18 Oct 13:00 AEDT) – consensus is 4.5% yoy (from 6.3%) – likely a trough in China’s GDP, with better levels ahead. • China Industrial production, fixed asset investment, retail sales (18 Oct 13:00 AEDT) • UK Sept CPI (18 Oct 17:00 AEDT) – the consensus for headline CPI is 6.6% yoy (from 6.7%) / core CPI at 6% yoy (6.2%) – a risk to manage for traders holding GBP exposures • EU CPI (18 Oct 20:00 AEDT) – no change expected in the revision, with headline CPI eyed at 4.3% /core CPI at 4.5%. Should be a non-event for the EUR and EU equities. • Australia employment report (19 Oct 11:30 AEDT) – the consensus estimate is for 20k jobs to have been created in September and the U/E rate unchanged at 3.7% - expect the impact from Aussie jobs to be short-lived – preference to work sell limits in AUDUSD on the day and sell into strength. • China new homes prices (19 Oct 12:30 AEDT) • China 1 & 5-year Prime Rate (20 Oct 12:15 AEDT) – the consensus is no change with the 1yr rate to stay at 5.2% & the 5yr rate at 3.45% US Earnings (with the implied move on earnings) – Goldman Sachs (3.7%), Bank of America (4.6%), Tesla (5.2%), Netflix (7.5%) Central bank speeches: BoE – Huw Pill, Sam Woods, Swati Dhingra ECB – Villeroy, Knot, Centeno, Guindos, Holzmann Fed – see schedule below
NYMEX:TTF1!Long
by Pepperstone
5