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USD/CHF Retreats Amidst Positive US Data and Trade TensionsUSD/CHF Retreats Amidst Positive US Data and Trade Tensions Introduction The USD/CHF currency pair is currently trading lower around 0.8910 during the Asian session on Friday, marking a retreat from its recent winning streak that commenced on Tuesday. This reversal comes despite the pair receiving upward support from robust US job data released on Thursday. In this article, we will dissect the factors contributing to the pair's recent movements and the broader economic landscape. Positive US Job Data One of the key drivers of the recent USD/CHF gains was the release of encouraging US job data. US Initial Jobless Claims as of September 1 dipped to 216K, falling below the expected 234K and the previous reading of 229K. Additionally, US Unit Labor Costs improved to 2.2% in the second quarter, up from the previous figure of 1.6%, a development that was expected to remain steady. The Strength of the US Dollar The recent surge in the strength of the US Dollar (USD) can be attributed to growing investor confidence in a more hawkish stance from the US Federal Reserve (Fed). This optimism is fueled by a consistent stream of positive economic data from the United States, reflecting the country's robust economic health. Market Expectations Market participants are now factoring in the likelihood of a 25 basis point (bps) interest rate hike during the November and December Fed meetings, along with the possibility of maintaining interest rates at elevated levels for an extended duration. These expectations have played a significant role in bolstering the USD's position in recent trading sessions. Trade Tensions and Safe-Haven Appeal Despite the positive economic developments in the US, investor confidence remains tempered by concerns regarding China's deteriorating economic situation and the persistent trade tensions between China and the United States. These factors continue to pose risks to the global economic landscape. In times of uncertainty, the Swiss Franc (CHF) often garners appeal as a traditional safe-haven currency, which could explain the recent resurgence in demand for the CHF. Focus on Upcoming Speeches With no significant economic releases expected to impact the market from either the United States or Switzerland in the near term, traders are likely to keep a close eye on forthcoming speeches from Fed members. These speeches have the potential to provide further insights into the central bank's monetary policy stance and may influence currency market dynamics. Conclusion The USD/CHF currency pair's recent retreat, despite positive US job data, underscores the impact of global economic uncertainties, particularly related to China's economic condition and ongoing trade tensions. While the US Dollar has enjoyed a recent surge in strength due to robust economic indicators and expectations of a more hawkish Fed, the Swiss Franc's safe-haven appeal remains intact. Traders should remain vigilant and adaptable as they navigate a forex landscape influenced by a delicate balance of economic factors and geopolitical tensions.
Long
by FOREXN1
17
AUDCHF Hit our bullish target. Now time to sell the Channel DownThe AUDCHF pair has hit the 0.58200 target (0.382 Fibonacci level) we set on our last buy call (see idea below) and is resting today at the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down pattern since the January 27 2023 High: The price price is now on the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and just below the 0.5 Fibonacci level. There is also a chance that the dotted Channel Down will be materialized, so the technical Lower High max extension is a little higher. The sell confirmation typically comes when the 1D MACD makes a Bearish Cross. Our target is a potential -9.10% extension at 0.54000. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
USDCHF, Massive Broadening-Wedge, BREAKOUT Incoming, Targets!Hello There! Welcome to my new analysis about USDCHF on the 2-Day Timeframe Perspective. In the recent times, as I have spotted, USDCHF is converting more and more into a determining structure that is setting up a much larger price-action volatility-breakout than already seen before. Therfore, the next finalization-steps need to be confirmed for the major determinations to emerge. Especially once the volume and momentum is aligned into this direction it is going to transform the whole chart-development into a major breakout determination. In this case I have spotted the most important parts of this whole considerations and what to expect in the upcoming times. Formational Structure: As when looking at my chart now USDCHF continued forming this gigantic Descending-Broadening-Wedge-Bottoming-Formation in which it formed a coherent Wave-Count within the structure to continue gradually bouncing within the lower boundary to now aim higher and test the upper boundary for a final breakout. Especially as USDCHF is building up above the 35-EMA this is offering an strong support within this whole structure and is actually forming the structure for the final breakout to emerge. Once the breakout above the upper-boundary emerged as it is seen within my chart this is going to be the first Breakout-Confirmation in a series of further continuation developments. Upcoming Indications and Prospects: Once the initial Breakout-Confirmation has shown up this is going to activate the target-zones as they are marked within this whole formational structure. Once the second Breakout-Confirmation has been validated it is going to increase the odds for the second target to be reached within the schedule and especially with a strong trend-acceleration those targets are likely to be reached faster than setup. The next times will be extremely important here as they are going to determine the final breakout and completion of the whole wedge-formation. According to this further assumptions to consider for the next alignments can be derived. This paramount formation and the upcoming developments are factors why we are keeping USDCHF on the watchlist and re-evaluate the situation once changes in the chart have emerged. In this manner, thank you everybody for watching the analysis, support from your side is greatly appreciated. VP
by VincePrince
2
CHFJPY, DOOMSDAY BEAR-MARKET Scenario, Wedge-TRIGGER-Setup!Hello There! Welcome to my new analysis about CHFJPY on several timeframe perspectives. The CHFJPY conditions have accelerated to an unnatural dynamic recently as the pair moved into new highs instead of the massive overbought condition and the fact that this main reversal into the bearish direction should have setup already long times before especially considering the deficit of capital flows in CHF against the JPY there is a lot of bearish pressure present for CHF. On the broader perspective the pair is forming this gigantic ascending-wedge-formation in which it already penetrated the lower boundaries with crucial bearish momentum spikes into the lower direction. This means that once a huge bearish pressure spike below the lower boundary has setup this will lead to many long liquidation triggers down the road and will lead to further continuations into this perspective. When the bearish pressure accelerates heavily this will also lead to the massive head-shoulder-formation to be completed triggering further bearish liquidations and momentum. Especially with a further increase of the deficit in capital flows between CHF and JPY this will lead to the main market momentum to convert into a bearish dynamic and will lead to the underlying bearish scenario perspective to be confirmed by traders and investors moving into a more bearish sentiment consideration. Once the whole head-shoulder-formation has completed the momentum is likely to accelerate to the target-zones mentioned. In this manner, thank you everybody for watching the analysis, support from your side is greatly appreciated. VP
by VincePrince
10
USDCHF Extremely overbought. Start selling. Sharp correction.The USDCHF pair is seeing a dramatic price surge in September. The pattern post late 2022 is basically very similar to the previous Bear Cycle of 2019-2020. The bottom fractals in particular seem identical and the price is approaching the 0.5 Fibonacci rejection level. Trading Plan: 1. Sell on the current market price and another on the 0.5 Fibonacci level. Targets: 1. 0.8800 (the symmetricl low of May 4th 2023). Tips: 1. The RSI (1d) is overbought, marginally over even 83.50 Overbought Resistance. This RSI Resistance has seen sharp declines after every touch (May 3rd 2018, March 4th 2021, May 11th 2022). That is why start shorting now is advised. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
Short
by TradingBrokersView
USDCHF 24/9/23UC is our last pair for this week, as it stands we have a clear bullish range but as we have said on nearly all of our pairs we do expect the current moves that have ran over the last few weeks, until we actually break out of this trend we will keep following it until it does then we will change our bias and follow price as it moves. Remember to always read order flow and follow what price is showing you instead of trading based on your desired direction. And, as always, stick to your risk and your plan. We'll be closely monitoring market openings and price action throughout the week. If you find this analysis useful, let us know in the comments below and hit the boost button to show your support. Here's to a successful week of trading!
by PipSurfingSociety
AUDCHF: Short term strength expectedExpecting the recent retracement to continue at least to 0.586 support, just crossing the mid point of my descending channel. Overall I'm still bearish on this pair (just), I am expecting the reversal at some point soon, either from here, or around the ATL marked on the chart. I see AUD gaining in strength as China wakes up. There's a big interest rate decision this Thursday from the SNB which will be big news I feel. I see this as a great pair to trade once a reversal is confirmed, there's a long way to go up!!
Long
by Finchcliffe