CHFJPY: basic rules of trading in crossesEach pair in the foreign exchange market is unique. But if we carry out some conditional classification of currency pairs, then we can single out those that are prone to trend movements and those that gravitate toward movement within the the outlined range (flat). The second type includes most of the cross-rates: EURJPY, EURCHF, GBPCHF, CHFJPY, etc. And even among these, gravitating towards flat assets, we can distinguish those that are even more inclined to move in the range. It's about CHFJPY.
This cross consists of quite similar currencies. Similar in the sense that both the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc are classified as safe havens. Or they perform the role of safe-haven assets in the foreign exchange market. Accordingly, in case of uncertainty or panic in financial markets, when other assets begin to move in a directional and one-sided manner, this cross occupies a waiting position and fluctuates in a relatively narrow range. In addition, the ultra-soft monetary policies of the Bank of Switzerland and the Bank of Japan contribute to an increase in the level of "similarity" of these currencies in the eyes of investors and traders.
So, the cross CHFJPY is a very attractive instrument for range trading.
In this regard, we want to pay attention to the current dynamics of the pair. Quotes came close to the level of 112 - the upper limit of the local range. That is, we have an excellent opportunity to open a short position. Sell objectives: bottom of the 110, and optimally - area 109.
As additional arguments in favor of the pair's sales, we can cite quite significant divergences that have formed over the past month: the price is parallel to the X axis, but the indicators (RSI, MACD) clearly point to the “south”. Recall that in the case of discrepancies between the directions of movement of indicators and price charts, as a rule, the "truth" is on the side of the indicators. That is, they indicate the correct direction. In this case, we are talking about depreciation of the CHF relatively JPY.
Summarizing, we can note that in the pair CHFJPY there is an excellent technical signal for sale, which should be not passed by. The risk / profit ratio is better than 1 to 3, which makes the sales of the pair from the current prices very attractive. Our recommendation is the sale of CHFJPY in the area 112 with the targets 110.20 (pessimistic scenario) or 109 (optimistic scenario).
Chfjpyidea
CHFJPY: bet on yenThe current prices (the lower boundary of the medium-term range 110-118) are in themselves the reason for buying a pair CHFJPY. This is a very ordinary transaction within the strategy: "buy from the bottom of the range, sell from the top." In this case, the stops are placed below 109, and the profits are set either in the intermediate level (113 or 116.20) or near the upper boundary of the range 118.
But this time everything can go a little differently, namely the pair CHFJPY can break through the lower boundary of the range and in this case the potential for drop to the level of 103 is opened. This is another story in terms of the direction of the deal and the trading strategy. Which option to choose - the classic purchase from the lower boundary, or the sale in terms of breakdown and further decline in the pair?
A very serious reason is needed for a breakdown of the lower boundary. What can lead to such a radical change in the balance in the pair? On June 10, Switzerland will hold a referendum on so-called "living money". The answer "yes" in the referendum will mean the start of a radical reform in the Swiss banking system with extremely unclear results. This can seriously damage the status of the Swiss franc as a safe haven and given that only the Japanese yen has such a status in the foreign exchange market, it becomes clear that investors fleeing the franc will flee primarily in the direction of buying the yen. What for the pair CHFJPY will mean its sharp decline.
In total, in the light of the upcoming events, we recommend selling the pair. And short positions should be kept until the announcement of the results of the referendum in Switzerland, which will be held on June 10, 2018. Ideally, you should enter the position on the fact of the breakdown of 110, which greatly increases the probability of success. The minimum target is 103.
CHFJPY Double top pattern (Daily tf)I was looking at different FX charts last night when I found the Daily tf of the CHFJPY.I had a look at its chart to investigate the development of price action so far. What I found that jumped at me from the screen was this monster double top pattern.
The first top of the pattern formed on July 11, 2017 and what is interesting to see here is that the first top itself did form a tiny Head and should top pattern which I also labeled on the chart.
The second top of the double top pattern formed on February 2, 2018. The second top of the double top pattern by itself would be referred to as a V-top. The price close for the first top of the pattern was ~118.20 and that of the second was ~118.22 which is great because it is important to have the tops to finish close to each other and not have one of the tops be significantly higher than the other.
A price close of ~112.40 on March 7 2018 confirmed the double top pattern (i.e. close below the horizontal black line).
The best way to approach trading this is to wait for a bounce and the look to sell it and a possible way to look for a target area to take profit is to project the difference in price of the blue arrow below the horizontal line and use that as a possible point to take profit.
Buy CHFJPY Longterm Based on H1, H4 + D TimeframesThis research is for informational purposes and should not be construed as personal advice. Trading any financial market involves risk. Trading on leverage involves risk of losses greater than deposits.
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CHFJPY Short OpportunitySeems like bulls can't break through this resistance level and has made multiple tops as a result. The bullish momentum from which this came from has been made too intensely and the bulls seem exhausted (or some may already be taking profits at this level) as shown by the decreasing volume.
Several reversal candle signals are visible such as the Bearish Engulfing, Tweezer Tops, and on lower time frames, Dark Cloud Cover.
RSI is showing divergence as well. We wait either for a breakout of the trendlines or breakout of the neckline before entering trades.