CHFJPY: Technically topped. Short opportunity.CHFJPY is on bullish 1D technicals (RSI = 59.579, MACD = 1.000, ADX = 53.750) but for the past 2 days have deen declining. This suggests that the top is has been priced and a technical pullback is to follow. The 1D MACD is on the verge of a Bearish Cross. All previous uptrend corrections hit or came close ot the 0.618 Fib. Consequently, we turn bearish on the short term (TP = 170.000).
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CHFJPY: Rising on the 1D MA200.CHFJPY is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 50.785, MACD = -0.360, ADX = 31.970) as the price action is ranged between the 1D MA50 and 1D MA200. The dominant pattern is a Channel Up however and with the price rebounding on the 1D MA200 (unbroken since March 29 2023) and the 1D MACD has formed a Bullish Cross, we expect the new HH leg to start. Our target is the R1 level (TP = 171.500).
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CHFJPY: The rally has only just startedCHFJPY is technically bullish on its 1D timeframe (RSI = 60.353, MACD = 0.670, ADX = 36.092) but the picture is more efficiently depicted on the 1W chart where it has already completed three straight green weeks. The 1W RSI points to a multimonth rally comparable to those that started in May 2022 and March 2023. Both peaked at a little over +18.00%. This time though the price is already near the top of the Channel Up so we will wait for it to break and validate the rally bias (TP = 185.000).
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CHFJPY: Is starting a long term declineCHFJPY reached the top of the 1 year Channel Up by exceeding the 2.618 Fibonacci extension and as the 1W technicals turned overbought the last two weeks (RSI = 69.506, MACD = 3.780, ADX = 64.451), it is an indication that we should start selling.
During the previous long term correction (September 14th - January 13th) inside this Channel Up, the price had a controlled decline inside a Channel Down pattern before bottoming more aggressively. As such, we take this opportunity to enter a comfortable long term sell, and target a possible 1D MA200 connection (TP = 152.250).
Prior idea:
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CHFJPY: Buy this pullback on the 1D MA50.CHFJPY is trading inside a Channel Up for the past 12 months and currently pulling back after touching the 2.0 Fibonacci level. With the 1D time frame technically neutral (RSI = 53.315, MACD = 1.420, ADX = 33.250), the closer the price gets to the 1D MA50, the stronger of a buy opportunity it becomes. The fractal of July-August 2022 indicates that the next HH of the Channel Up should be on the 2.618 Fibonacci level at 160.000.
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