CHFJPY: Channel Down bottomed on oversold RSI.CHFJPY is almost oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 30.519, MACD = -1.120, ADX = 33.207) while the strong selling wave hit today the bottom of the October 31st 2024 High. The last time the 1D RSI was oversold was on the December 02 bottom. The bullish wave that followed, exceeded the 0.786 Fibonacci level. We anticipate an indentical rebound (TP = 173.500).
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CHFJPY: Bearish wave of Channel Down unfolding.CHFJPY is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 41.014, MACD = -1.180, ADX = 47.694) as it is more than halfway on the new bearish wave of the 5 month Channel Down. Having crossed under both the 1D MA50 and MA200, the 1D RSI appears to technically be on a level much like the July 25th rebound. This indicates that we are on an ideal sell entry. Short and target (TP = 164.300) the full -7.43% extension (the decline of the July-Aug bearish wave).
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CHFJPY: Technically topped. Short opportunity.CHFJPY is on bullish 1D technicals (RSI = 59.579, MACD = 1.000, ADX = 53.750) but for the past 2 days have deen declining. This suggests that the top is has been priced and a technical pullback is to follow. The 1D MACD is on the verge of a Bearish Cross. All previous uptrend corrections hit or came close ot the 0.618 Fib. Consequently, we turn bearish on the short term (TP = 170.000).
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CHFJPY: Rising on the 1D MA200.CHFJPY is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 50.785, MACD = -0.360, ADX = 31.970) as the price action is ranged between the 1D MA50 and 1D MA200. The dominant pattern is a Channel Up however and with the price rebounding on the 1D MA200 (unbroken since March 29 2023) and the 1D MACD has formed a Bullish Cross, we expect the new HH leg to start. Our target is the R1 level (TP = 171.500).
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CHFJPY: The rally has only just startedCHFJPY is technically bullish on its 1D timeframe (RSI = 60.353, MACD = 0.670, ADX = 36.092) but the picture is more efficiently depicted on the 1W chart where it has already completed three straight green weeks. The 1W RSI points to a multimonth rally comparable to those that started in May 2022 and March 2023. Both peaked at a little over +18.00%. This time though the price is already near the top of the Channel Up so we will wait for it to break and validate the rally bias (TP = 185.000).
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CHFJPY: Is starting a long term declineCHFJPY reached the top of the 1 year Channel Up by exceeding the 2.618 Fibonacci extension and as the 1W technicals turned overbought the last two weeks (RSI = 69.506, MACD = 3.780, ADX = 64.451), it is an indication that we should start selling.
During the previous long term correction (September 14th - January 13th) inside this Channel Up, the price had a controlled decline inside a Channel Down pattern before bottoming more aggressively. As such, we take this opportunity to enter a comfortable long term sell, and target a possible 1D MA200 connection (TP = 152.250).
Prior idea:
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CHFJPY: Buy this pullback on the 1D MA50.CHFJPY is trading inside a Channel Up for the past 12 months and currently pulling back after touching the 2.0 Fibonacci level. With the 1D time frame technically neutral (RSI = 53.315, MACD = 1.420, ADX = 33.250), the closer the price gets to the 1D MA50, the stronger of a buy opportunity it becomes. The fractal of July-August 2022 indicates that the next HH of the Channel Up should be on the 2.618 Fibonacci level at 160.000.
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