China
USD/JPY Bullish Reversal Setup: Key Levels and TargetsThe USD/JPY chart on the 4-hour timeframe indicates a potential bullish setup. Here's a breakdown of the analysis:
1. Support Zone & Trendline Confluence**
- Price is currently reacting to a strong demand zone** around 149.000–149.500, marked in green.
- There's also a visible ascending trendline acting as dynamic support, reinforcing the bullish outlook.
2. Change of Character (ChoCH) & Break of Structure (BOS)
- A series of **bearish BOS and ChoCH confirm the prior downtrend.
- However, the most recent ChoCH to the upside signals a potential shift in market direction.
3. Target Zone & Resistance Area
- The next resistance zone** is marked around 152.000, aligning with a supply area.
- This is also the short-term bullish target, as indicated on the chart.
4. Potential Trade Setup
- If the price holds above the demand zone and breaks the minor resistance at 150.000, bullish momentum could push it toward 152.000.
- A higher low formation** would further confirm bullish continuation.
5. Risk Factors
- A break below the **strong low (148.800–149.000) could invalidate the bullish setup and signal further downside.
Conclusion
USD/JPY is showing signs of a potential bullish reversal. If price respects the support and trendline, it could rally toward 152.000. However, a breakdown below 149.000 would invalidate the bullish bias.
$NIO Will a similar OBV and Volume pattern lead to a rally?Pay attention to the recent OBV structure (blue). Declining and forming a flat bottom.
The volume in pink displays the same characteristics during each stage of the Inverse H&S pattern: forming an initial peak during the left shoulder, a higher one during the formation of the head (although the head of the current pattern is accompanied by lower volume, but I have an explanation for it), and then peaking during the formation of the second touch of the base, at the start of the right shoulder. Finally, the volume dives along with the last peak of the structure before leaving the pattern altogether.
Additionally, notice how the Weinstein 30-week indicator is finding a bottom here.
During the 'head' or second dip, NIO's price declined on lower volume than in 2019. I can see it as a change of character. It looks like NIO didn't take this dip seriously this time.
Alibaba - This Chart Is Pretty Beautiful!Alibaba ( NYSE:BABA ) is perfectly respecting structure:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
With a rally of about +80% within a couple of weeks, Alibaba is clearly showing signs of bulls completely taking over. This pressure was not unexpected though after we perfectly witnessed the major trendline breakout a couple of months ago and a retest of the confluence of support.
Levels to watch: $140, $110
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
The algos have awoken. $NIO Short term squeeze?As soon as the Weinstein 30-week indicator trended up on the 1-minute chart (first time since the start of January), price rallied by 1% and heavy call buying pushed the options premium to the bullish territory.
As a result, the indicator is trending up on the 30-minute chart for the first time since last November. I think that a squeeze is highly likely to occur over the next few days.
IO Weekly Technicals Review [2025/08]: IO Prices Extend UptrendSGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) Index Futures (“SGX IO Futures”) rose last week, closing USD 1.30/ton higher by 21/Feb (Fri).
SGX IO Futures opened at USD 105.95/ton on 17/Feb (Mon) and closed at USD 107.25/ton on 21/Feb (Fri).
Prices briefly touched a weekly high of USD 109.30/ton on 21/Feb (Fri) and a low of USD 104.20/ton on 17/Feb (Mon). It traded in a range of USD 5.10/ton during the week, which was wider than the prior week.
Prices crossed the pivot point of USD 106.85/ton and R1 point of USD 108.10/ton during the week, closing between the R1 point and the pivot point at USD 107.25/ton.
Volume peaked on 20/Feb (Thu) as investor sentiment improved amid signs of recovery in China’s property sector.
Iron Ore Fundamentals in Summary
Prices climbed to their highest levels in more than four months as steel consumption recovery signs brightened demand outlook in top consumer China, where stimulus hopes have revived.
Prices also surged as supply tightened after an Australian cyclone Zelia likely disrupted seven million tons of shipments.
BHP and Rio Tinto reported weaker earnings due to falling iron ore prices but emphasized their strong position in the energy transition, particularly through copper assets. While the recent price rally provides temporary relief for major miners like Rio Tinto, BHP, Fortescue, and Vale, they face significant short- and long-term risks.
China's port IO stockpiles dropped by 0.78 million tons (-0.52%) WoW to 149.18 million tons for the week ending 21/Feb as per MMI data.
Based on seasonality, SGX IO Futures Mar contract trades 16.33% below its last 5-year average (USD 129.66/ton).
Short-Term MA Sustains Bullishness amid Strong Industrial Outlook
Formation of a golden cross on 17/ Jan (Fri) triggered a rally in iron ore with prices rising 5.2% over three weeks before losing steam on 14/Feb. Following tentative signs of China's property sector recovery, iron ore prices regained upward momentum this week.
Prices Trend Upwards Amid Potential Long-term Moving Average Convergence
IO prices are trading well above 100-day & 200-day DMAs. The narrowing gap between the long-term moving averages suggests a high possibility of convergence which could further confirm the uptrend. Will prices revert towards longer-term averages or sustain their upward trajectory?
MACD Signals Weakening Bullish Momentum, RSI Cross Portends Bears Ahead
The MACD line is near the signal line suggesting weakening momentum of the bullish trend. Meanwhile, the RSI is at 57.59, at neutral levels as it hovers around the midpoint, with its RSI-based moving average at 59.65. RSI MA forming a death-cross portends bearishness ahead.
Volatility Steady & IO Prices Closed Below 61.8% Fibonacci Level Amid Uptrend
Volatility remained steady this week. Prices traded between the 61.8% Fibonacci level (USD 107.65/ton) and the 50% level (USD 105.40/ton), closing below the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Going forward, 61.8% Fibonacci level (USD 107.65/ton) may act as resistance, with 50.0% Fibonacci level (USD 105.40/ton) as support.
Buying Pressure Softened & IO Prices Trade Below Upper Bollinger Band Levels
Buying pressure softened during second half of last week based on A/D indicator. IO prices climbed from the basis band to the upper band during the week and closed within the range at USD 107.25.
China’s Two Sessions: A Key Catalyst for Iron Ore Market Swings?
China's Two Sessions (Lianghui) is an annual political gathering in China where key economic and industrial policies are set. This can significantly impact China linked assets including iron ore. Over the past four years (2021-2024), prices have shown a pattern of pre-meeting speculation-driven gains, followed by declines due to policy interventions or cautious economic targets. While 2021 and 2022 saw initial optimism fueling price spikes before corrections, 2023 and 2024 featured steady declines amid weak demand and rising inventories. This trend underscores China's policy direction as a key driver of iron ore market fluctuations.
Source: SGX
IO Futures Only Aggregate Exposure
Financial Institutions (FIs) and Managed Money participants are net long with 101.6k lots and 81.4k across all futures expiries. Physicals participants and Others are net short with 142.7k and 40.3k lots respectively across all futures expires. Managed Money increased net long positions, Physicals increased net short positions while FIs decreased net long positions last week. Overall futures open interest was 1,101,024 lots as of 14/Feb, while it was 984,935 lots as of 07/Feb.
Source: SGX
IO Futures & Options Aggregate Exposure
Financial Institutions (FIs) and Managed Money participants are net long with 102.3k lots and 90.9k across all futures and options expiries. Physicals participants and Others are net short with 145.8k and 47.4k lots respectively across all futures and options expires. Managed Money increased net long positions, Physicals increased net short positions while FIs decreased net long positions last week. Overall futures and options open interest was 1,370,376 lots as of 14/Feb, while it was 1,234,295 lots as of 07/Feb.
Source: SGX
Historical Futures Aggregate Exposure by Market Participants
Physical participants have switched from net long to net short over the past month. Managed Money participants have switched from net short to being net long in the last two weeks. Financial Institutions continue to hold net long positions since the second quarter of last year.
Source: SGX
Hypothetical Trade Setup
IO prices surged to a four-month high, driven by a brighter China steel demand outlook amid renewed stimulus hopes. This mirrors past trends where economic support hopes drove pre-session gains in 2021 & 2022. Current rally signals renewed optimism of stronger policy support from Two Sessions.
IO prices sustained uptrend last week save a pull back on Friday T+1 session. The MACD signals weakening bullishness while the RSI MA formed a death-cross portending bearishness ahead. IO prices rose from above 50% Fibonacci levels to close marginally below 61.8% levels indicating signaling bullishness.
Against this backdrop, this paper posits a long position in SGX Iron Ore Futures expiring on 28th March 2025 (FEFH2025) with an entry at USD 106.20/ton combined with a take profit level at USD 111.60/ton and a stop-loss at USD 101.70/ton resulting in a reward-to-risk ratio of 1.2x.
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This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
BABA Weekly Chart: Massive Breakout with Strong VolumeThe BABA weekly chart showcases a powerful breakout, accompanied by substantial volume, signaling strong bullish momentum. The price has decisively broken through key structural resistance and surged above the IPO AVWAP, reinforcing the strength of this move. However, the RSI is approaching overbought territory, and there’s a potential for a double top formation. Should this scenario unfold, a retest of the IPO AVWAP around the $130 level would be a healthy sign, potentially providing a strong entry point for bulls. The immediate resistance stands at $159.20, and a successful flip of this level could pave the way for targets at $174 and $197. Additionally, the significant volume increase could indicate institutional participation, adding credibility to the breakout. Keeping an eye on the volume trend during any pullback will be crucial to assess whether sellers are stepping in or if the bulls remain in control.
Military Metals - Possible Head & Shoulders with a 2X potential Antimony is a buzz in the mining space. Military Metals is looking to capitalize on China’s market dominance by developing new antimony mines in North America. The chart suggests that the $5 million dollar market cap exploration company could be on the verge of a 2X move. I believe that any purchase under $0.35 would be a good buy for a move up to $0.65 and possibly beyond. Good luck.
Pinduoduo $220PDD has a lot of potential to rise to $220 and above. China has been battered and this stock trades with a 12 PE ratio. That's about as cheap of a stock with revenue growth like this you're going to find.
The CSI 300 index has finished it's 2022 correction and is in a uptrend likely supporting PDD rising.
Good luck!
China's money supply explodes.China's revision of its M1 money supply calculation in January 2025, which now encompasses individual checking accounts and assets held in non-bank financial institutions, seeks to deliver a clearer understanding of liquidity within its economy. The reported surge from $67 trillion in December 2024 to $112 trillion in January 2025 has ignited discussions, with some viewing it as a strategy to obscure underlying economic issues, such as a potential deflationary debt spiral.
The People's Bank of China has declared a "moderately loose" monetary policy for 2025, aiming to boost the money supply and lower interest rates to foster economic growth, a move that may be connected to the M1 recalibration. This shift takes place against a backdrop of broader macroeconomic adjustments, including a 5% GDP growth target and initiatives to stabilize the real estate sector, as detailed in China's 14th Five-Year Plan for 2025.
$NIO Triple dives, a repeat of 2020-2021. Bears in hibernation.During the first dive, volume is at its lowest. It dips slightly during the formation of the second dive in the middle, then gradually rises as the final shake-off takes shape, eventually reaching a high point.
Observe what's happening, a divergence between price and the On Balance Volume.
2020 // While the stock formed lower lows, the OBV stayed near the same level. During the first dive (part of a triple dive pattern), NIO’s On-Balance Volume kept declining until the second dive formed, after which it began to rise.
2025 // The OBV forms higher highs with each dive. While the price is making lower lows against a descending resistance line, the OBV is trending higher. Why is the price dropping when the OBV has reached the same level? I’m sensing a reversal is on the horizon.
The OBV is acting up.
What do you think? I'm very bullish.
Alibaba Group | BABA | Long at $80.00Alibaba Group NYSE:BABA has the potential for massive growth. From a technical analysis perspective (and using my selected simply moving averages (SMAs)), the price of NYSE:BABA is reconnecting with its primary SMA. It could ride this area for a while as it consolidates further, but this often means a future reversal of the downward trend. Thus, at $80.00, NYSE:BABA is in a personal buy zone.
Target #1 = $89.00
Target #2 = $94.00
Target #3 = $107.00
Target #4 = $116.00
Target #5 = $305.00 (very long-term view...)
$NIO Fibonacci Analysis. Reversal is coming.Placing the fib-retracement tool on the top of the chart and the recent bottom, I see that many level coincide with the support and resistance areas on NIO's chart.
Short-term, I see NYSE:NIO breaking out of this falling wedge:
It takes ~140 days for the third dive to play out. (Inverse H&S pattern, IMO).
See my previous post for a more in-depth explanation:
CHINA50 to find support near market price?CHN50 - 24h expiry
Trend line support is located at 13265.
RSI (relative strength indicator) is flat and reading close to 50 (mid-point) highlighting the fact that we are non- trending.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels.
A move through 13350 will confirm the bullish momentum.
The measured move target is 13500.
We look to Buy at 13265 (stop at 13165)
Our profit targets will be 13465 and 13500
Resistance: 13250 / 13400 / 13500
Support: 13300 / 13265 / 13250
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Can Soybeans Survive the Global Trade Chessboard?In the intricate game of international trade politics, soybeans have emerged as pivotal pieces on the global economic chessboard. The soybean industry faces a critical juncture as nations like the European Union and China implement protectionist strategies in response to US policies. This article delves into how these geopolitical moves are reshaping the future of one of America's most significant agricultural exports, challenging readers to consider the resilience and adaptability required in today's volatile trade environment.
The European Union's decision to restrict US soybean imports due to the use of banned pesticides highlights a growing trend towards sustainability and consumer health in global trade. This move impacts American farmers and invites us to ponder the broader implications of agricultural practices on international commerce. As we witness these shifts, the question arises: How can the soybean industry innovate to meet global standards while maintaining its economic stronghold?
China's strategic response, which targets influential American companies like PVH Corp., adds complexity to the global trade narrative. The placement of a major U.S. brand on China's 'unreliable entity' list highlights the power dynamics involved in international commerce. This situation prompts us to consider the interconnectedness of economies and the potential for unforeseen alliances or conflicts. What strategies can businesses implement to navigate these challenging circumstances?
Ultimately, the soybean saga is more than a tale of trade disputes; it's a call to action for innovation, sustainability, and strategic foresight in the agricultural sector. As we watch this unfold, we are inspired to question not just the survival of soybeans but the very nature of global economic relationships in an era where every move on the trade chessboard can alter the game. How will the soybean industry, and indeed, international trade, evolve in response to these challenges?
$NIO is looking very explosive.Nio has seen a long period of consolidation and the sentiment is at all time lows, it seems.
I think that the stock is in the 'depressive' phase where holders are exhausted, and accumulation is taking place. I'm betting on a breakout to $10, and then $40 on a long-term rally.
$NIO Price will see a rally to $30 during the coming China rallyNYSE:NIO is an EV maker in China, that moves close to AMEX:KWEB and other ETFs.
We didn't see the stock price move like during this TVC:HSI or NYSE:BABA rally, where the large Chinese equities were bid up this week. Instead, NIO has stayed flat.
Looking at the historic structure, and NIO's pattern today, I compare them and form a conclusion that this marks the beginning of the rally.
I think that the bottom is in, and that this 'triple dives' pattern represents a large reversal pattern, dating back 1 year. Just come back to this chart 12 months from now, and tell me what you think.
Update:
Look at the tilt of the support lines and compare them to each other.
$NTES NETEASE to benefit from Chinese stimulus.NetEase, Inc. is a prominent Chinese internet technology firm established by Ding Lei in June 1997. The company offers a diverse range of online services encompassing content, community engagement, communication, and commerce. It specializes in the development and operation of online games for both PC and mobile platforms, alongside advertising, email services, and e-commerce solutions within China. As one of the largest players in the global internet and video game industry, NetEase also manages several pig farms. Additionally, it features an on-demand music streaming service. Notable video game titles from NetEase include Fantasy Westward Journey, Tianxia III, Heroes of Tang Dynasty Zero, and Ghost II. From 2008 to 2023, the company was responsible for the Chinese versions of popular Blizzard Entertainment games, including World of Warcraft, StarCraft II, and Overwatch. In August 2023, NetEase unveiled a new American studio, spearheaded by veterans from Bethesda and BioWare.
Chinese Internet Stocks on the Edge: KWEB vs. FXI Introduction:
The Chinese internet sector AMEX:KWEB is at a critical juncture when compared to large-cap Chinese stocks AMEX:FXI . The ratio between these two reflects sector leadership—if KWEB outperforms, it signals renewed strength in internet stocks and suggests the sector is leading.
Current Market Context:
Potential Breakdown: The KWEB-to-FXI ratio is teetering near key support. A breakdown here would be a bearish signal for Chinese internet stocks.
Bullish Outlook: However, bulls are closely watching for signs of outperformance from KWEB, which could indicate the start of a new bullish trend.
Higher-Low Formation: If the ratio forms a higher low relative to its long-term trend, it would be a sign of potential strength in the internet sector.
Key Levels to Watch:
Support: Monitor the ratio’s current support level closely. A breakdown below this could lead to increased selling pressure on KWEB.
Resistance: A breakout above recent highs would indicate renewed outperformance and signal a bullish rotation into internet stocks.
Conclusion:
KWEB is at a make-or-break point, and the coming days could determine its fate. If the sector can establish a higher low and break above resistance, it could signal a bullish shift for Chinese internet stocks. Will KWEB lead, or will large-cap Chinese stocks maintain their dominance? Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
Charts:
(Include a chart showing the KWEB-to-FXI ratio, marking key support, resistance, and any signs of higher-low formations.)
Tags: #KWEB #FXI #ChineseStocks #InternetSector #SectorLeadership #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketTrends #China
IO Weekly Technicals Review [2025/06]: Correction Looms SGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) Index Futures (“SGX IO Futures”) rose last week, closing USD 2.25/ton higher by 07/Feb (Fri).
SGX IO Futures opened at USD 105.05/ton on 03/Feb (Mon) and closed at USD 107.30/ton on 07/Feb (Fri).
Prices briefly touched a weekly high of USD 107.50/ton on 07/Feb (Fri) and a low of USD 102.00/ton on 03/Feb (Mon). It traded in a range of USD 5.50/ton during the week, which was wider than the prior week.
Prices traded between the pivot point of USD 105.35 and S1 point of 103.85 throughout the week, crossing the R1 point of USD 107.20/ton on Fri and closing above it.
Volume peaked on 07/Jan (Fri) with volume increasing significantly compared to the previous week levels.
Iron Ore Fundamentals in Summary
Dalian iron ore futures reached a four-month high, posting strong weekly gains. The recovery was driven by steel mills resuming production, increased activity in the property sector, and rising Chinese equities after the Lunar New Year.
China filed a WTO complaint against new U.S. tariffs and urged dialogue. While trade tensions remain a concern, steel-related commodities continued to rise, with steelmaking ingredients and Shanghai Futures Exchange benchmarks posting strong gains.
Iron ore futures rebounded as a softer U.S. dollar (-0.4%) made commodities more affordable for global buyers. Additionally, Rio Tinto cleared ships from Western Australian ports due to cyclone threats, adding a risk premium to prices.
China's port IO stockpiles rose by 4.63 million tons (+3.19%) WoW to 149.91 million tons for the week ending 07/Feb per MMI data.
Based on seasonality, SGX IO Futures Mar contract trades 17.3% below its last 5-year average (USD 125.16/ton).
Short-Term Moving Averages Signal Bullish Trend, But Correction Looms
Formation of a golden cross on 17/ Jan (Fri) followed by upward trend for three weeks indicating that the bullishness may sustain in the near term. Prices are trading above both the short-term moving averages.
Long-Term Averages Indicate Convergence of Moving Averages
IO prices crossed and closed significantly above the 200-day DMA. Signaling a strengthening bullish trend as prices beats the 200-day DMA, with a probability of convergence between long-term moving averages.
MACD Signals Bullish Momentum; RSI Inching Towards Overbought Zone
The MACD signals a positive momentum starting from 14/Jan with growing bullishness observed last week. Meanwhile, the RSI is at 65.08, is inching towards the overbought zone and it hovers above the midpoint, with its RSI-based moving average at 60.97.
Volatility Rose, Price Closed Above 50% Fibonacci Level
Volatility gained upward momentum late in the week. Prices traded between the 38.2% Fibonacci level (USD 103.10/ton) and the 61.8% level (USD 107.62/ton), closing below the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Going forward, 61.8% Fibonacci level (USD 107.62/ton) may act as resistance, with 50.0% Fibonacci level (USD 105.36/ton) as support.
Buying Pressure Intensified, Price Trading Near the Upper-Bollinger Bands
Buying pressure has intensified in the later part of the week according to the Accumulation/Distribution (A/D) indicator. The price is trading between the upper-volume node and basis-volume node, closing the week near the upper-volume node.
IO Prices Rise Towards CNY & Then Decline Thereafter
Between 2021 & 2024, SGX IO futures prices have risen leading up to the Chinese New Year before tapering off ten trading days after the holiday. Prices declined before & after CNY holidays only in 2024 while prices continued to rise even after CNY before falling sharply in 2021 & 2022.
A similar trend was observed in the ten-day period leading up to CNY 2025.
IO Futures Only Aggregate Exposure
Financial Institutions (FIs) are net long with 136.6k lots across all futures expiries. Managed Money participants, Physicals participants and Others are net short with 15.5k, 103.5k and 17.3k lots respectively across all futures expires. Managed Money decreased net short positions, Physicals increased net short positions while FIs decreased net long positions last week. Overall futures open interest was 1,179,418 lots as of 31/Jan stood at lots (-3.5%) while it was 1,222,981 lots as of 24/Jan.
Source: SGX
IO Futures & Options Aggregate Exposure
Financial Institutions (FIs) are net long with 133.2k lots across all futures & options expiries. Managed Money participants, Physicals participants and Others are net short with 7.0k, 106.9k and 19.2k lots respectively across all futures and options expires. Managed Money decreased net short positions, Physicals increased net short positions while FIs decreased net long positions last week. Overall futures and options open interest was 1,421,263 as of 31/Jan stood at lots (-5.2%) while it was 1,499,318 lots as of 24/Jan.
Source: SGX
Historical Futures Aggregate Exposure by Market Participants
Physical participants have switched from net long to net short over the last three weeks. Managed Money participants have maintained net short positions for the past month. Financial Institutions continue to hold net long positions since the second quarter of this year.
Source: SGX
Hypothetical Trade Setup
Prices are currently trading above short-term moving averages and significantly above both long-term moving averages, hovering near the upper Bollinger Band, which suggests potential resistance at these levels. Historical trends indicate a pattern of price declines in the last three days of the 10-day period following the Chinese Lunar New Year, a movement that could potentially repeat this year. While managed money participants have reduced their short positions over the past two weeks, signaling a more optimistic outlook, we take a contrarian view and recommend a short position strategy this week, anticipating a potential price correction from current levels.
The hypothetical trade setup involves entering a short position at USD 107.6/ton with a take profit level at USD 104.3/ton combined with a stop loss at USD 109.0/ton resulting in a 2.35x reward-to-risk ratio.
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
$CNIRYY -China Inflation Rate Hits 5-Month PeakECONOMICS:CNIRYY 0.5%
(January/2025)
source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
- China’s annual inflation rate surged to 0.5% in January 2025 from 0.1% in the prior month, above consensus of 0.4%.
This was the highest figure since August 2024, driven by seasonal effects from the Lunar New Year.
Meantime, producer prices fell by 2.3% yoy, keeping the same pace as in December while declining for the 28th month.
China - U.S. Tariff Trade War!🩸China has slapped the U.S. with 10% tariffs on Energy products & automobiles as a retaliation🩸
China’s tariffs on U.S. energy & cars will hurt American exporters by reducing demand & pushing down prices, affecting profitability. Energy producers may struggle with oversupply, while automakers like Tesla and Ford face declining sales in China.
The move escalates U.S.-China trade tensions, discouraging investment and increasing market volatility. While lower energy prices could help inflation, job losses in key industries may offset any benefits.
U.S. policymakers might respond with countermeasures. If tensions rise further, a broader trade conflict could emerge, increasing risks for the global economy.