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Hedging Price Risk in Silver in a Pivotal Week This is a big week for financial markets, a long-anticipated election in the US is likely to have widely varying impacts across major asset classes. Safe haven assets such as silver stand to benefit from the uncertainty. There is also an FOMC meeting scheduled on 7/Nov (Thu) where the Fed is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points. A lower rate environment also serves as tailwind for silver. Finally, the Chinese parliament is expected to announce details of fiscal stimulus on 8/Nov (Fri). Fiscal stimulus in China also stands to benefit silver through higher investment demand as well as industrial demand. In what should fundamentally be a strong week for silver, prices have entered the week on a bearish note following a 3.4% decline last week. While fundamental outlook for Silver remains bullish, this eventful week may drive unwanted volatility. Indeed markets are expecting large moves in silver prices with silver options IV near a 1-year high. Source: CME Group CVOL Investors can strategically deploy CME silver weekly options along with a long position in silver to capitalize on the fundamental increase while remaining protected against volatility. BULLISH FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK FOR SILVER Mint Finance covered some of silver’s bullish fundamental drivers in a previous paper . In brief, robust growth from the photovoltaic (PV) sector is driving high demand. PV installations are surging, with global solar installations up 29% year-over-year, driven by aggressive climate policies and energy transition goals. This increase has directly boosted silver consumption, essential for PV production. At the same time, silver markets have stayed in a supply deficit for the past four years. Silver miners have struggled to keep pace with the rapidly increasing industrial demand. China’s massive stimulus package—its largest since the pandemic—also plays a crucial role, freeing up liquidity to revitalize its struggling economy. This stimulus supports sectors like PV and electronics, key industries for silver usage, while bolstering consumer confidence, which translates into heightened demand for silver in electronics and jewellery. Investment demand for silver has started to pick up pace. Since July, U.S.-listed silver ETFs have seen over $942 million in inflows, particularly after the Fed’s rate cuts, which makes non-yielding assets like silver more attractive. HIGHER SILVER JEWELLERY DEMAND IN INDIA The recent festival season in India saw high demand for silver as buyers opted for it over gold. Silver sales by volume are expected to have increased 30-35% YoY while gold sales fell by 15% according to data from the Indian Bullion & Jewellers Association. Rising investor interest in silver is partly due to its relative affordability compared to gold, which is trading at an all-time high. While high gold prices are dampening demand, especially for physical gold and jewellery, silver remains more accessible, supporting increased investment. Rising investment demand, particularly for jewellery, risks pushing silver further into deficit. While jewellery demand for silver had been modest in recent years, 2022 saw a significant increase. According to the Silver Institute, jewellery demand is projected to grow by 4% in 2024 (but below 2022 levels), with actual demand potentially exceeding this due to the strong seasonal trend. Increased demand would further tighten silver supplies, likely driving prices higher over the next year. UPCOMING FOMC MEETING AND CHINA STIMULUS TO DRIVE SENTIMENT China’s parliament has started it five-day meeting on 4/Nov (Mon) and is expected to announce the details of the fiscal support on 8/Nov (Fri). Analysts suggest the fiscal plan could reach 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion), with most funds likely allocated to refinancing local government debt. A substantial fiscal stimulus plan is likely to support silver prices. Recent economic data from China has also shown a recovering industrial sector as China’s manufacturing PMI rose from 49.8 to 50.1 in Oct as the manufacturing sector shifted into expansion after 5 months of contraction. In case the trend continues, stronger industrial demand also stands to push silver prices higher. SILVER IN THE MIDST OF CORRECTION DURING UPTREND Silver continued its bullish momentum from September into October but has corrected sharply over the past week. During the rally earlier this year, when silver prices corrected, they were able to find support at the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels. With Silver presently just above the 38.2% level, it may find support here. Silver’s performance in the past two months has closely aligned with monthly pivot points. In both September and October, prices tested these pivot levels before moving higher. However, recent tests have shown smaller deviations from the pivot compared to prior months, suggesting that volatility could push prices slightly lower during this month’s test. There is strong reason to believe that the general bullish trend is likely to continue into next year. According to a poll at the LBMA precious metal conference, delegates expect silver prices to rise to USD 45/oz over 2025, reflecting a 37% increase from present levels. Precious metal analysts were highly optimistic about silver, stating that higher industrial demand combined with continued supply deficit was likely to drive strong gains. SEASONALITY SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR LARGE GAINS IN NOVEMBER Silver prices closed out October with a 4.6% increase but are currently nearly flat for November. Historically, November has been a mixed month for silver, with an average price increase of 1.88% since 2000, though with high standard deviation. Notably, only 42% of Novembers have shown positive gains. Despite this variability, past performance shows periods where silver either consistently declined or consistently rallied over multiple Novembers. Over the last two years, November has seen significant growth in silver prices; if this recent trend persists, silver could experience strong gains this month. SILVER’S PERFORMANCE AROUND ELECTIONS Certain safe haven and risk assets (gold, silver, BTC) stand to benefit from a Trump presidency. Historically, elections have impacted silver prices in varying ways. Following the Trump victory, silver stands to benefit. Looking at silver’s historical performance in the two weeks following elections since 1980, prices increased by an average of 0.7% when a Republican replaced a Democrat president. The Democrat-to-Republican shift has led to price rallies in two-thirds of cases. SILVER’S PERFORMANCE AROUND FOMC MEETINGS As mentioned, lower rates have a positive impact on non-yielding investment assets such as silver while also boosting industrial demand during periods with loose monetary policy. During the Fed easing cycles in 2001, 2007, and 2019, silver reacted positively to Fed rate cuts in 68% of cases (performance measured 1 week after FOMC meeting with monetary easing) with an average of 0.9% appreciation on the CME Silver front month contract. Source: CME FedWatch CME FedWatch tool is suggesting that a 25-basis point rate cut is most likely at the upcoming meeting on 7/Nov with a probability of 98%. As the outcome is largely anticipated, the impact of the meeting on silver prices may be minimal. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP Silver remains bullish with strong fundamental drivers including the rapid growth in the PV industry and strong investment demand. This week, several major events are expected to drive significant volatility in the silver market. While these events are generally anticipated to boost silver demand, prices may remain unstable and could see short-term declines. Silver is currently trading near its support levels, but increased event-driven volatility this week could lead to significant price swings. In late October, for example, silver briefly surged nearly 4% above usual resistance levels during short bursts of volatility. Although trading volume remained concentrated near the support level, the risk of sudden, sharp moves remains. This could result in a long silver position being prematurely closed out. With a long position in silver futures at risk from near-term event risks, investors can deploy CME weekly options to hedge a long position from near-term volatility which increases tail risk. In the following hypothetical trade setup, investors can combine a long position in CME micro silver futures expiring in December (SILZ4) at an entry of 32 with a protective put using CME silver weekly options expiring on 8/Nov (Fri) (SO2X4) at a strike level of 31 (delta 20, premium of 0.087/oz or USD 435) offers a compelling trade setup while remaining hedged against near-term volatility. Using a delta-20 put option keeps the position fully delta-hedged for the week, as the delta of the long micro silver position aligns with the option’s delta at 20. Since each micro silver contract is one-fifth the size of a full contract, this setup effectively maintains the hedge. In case prices dip below 30.64 by Friday due to volatility from the election, FOMC meeting, and China parliamentary meeting, the put option would offset any losses from the futures leg. In the later part of the month, the outlook for silver is likely to be bullish given the fundamental factors highlighted above, in case prices rise, the position would become profitable above 32.44, offsetting the premium paid for the short-term option. The scenarios in which the position loses: 1) In case prices remain between 30.64 and 32.44 2) In case prices fall below 30.64 following the put option expiry on 8/Nov The scenarios in which the position profits: 1) In case prices fall below 30.64 before the put option expiry on 8/Nov 2) In case prices rise above 32.44 at any point It should be noted that it would be prudent to set a stop loss on the long futures position following options expiry at 31 to minimize losses in case of a decline after options expiry. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
COMEX_MINI:SIL1!Long
by mintdotfinance
IO Weekly Technicals Review [2024/44]: Set For Large Move SGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) Index Futures (“SGX IO Futures”) expiring in December rose last week, up by USD 0.54/ton on Friday, though prices gave up some gains by the end of the week. SGX IO Futures opened at USD 101.60/ton on 28/Oct (Mon) and closed at USD 102.14/ton on 01/Nov (Fri). Prices briefly touched a weekly high of USD 104.60/ton on 29/Oct (Tue) and a low of USD 101.30/ton on 28/Oct (Mon). It traded in a range of USD 3.30/ton during the week, which was smaller than the prior week. Prices traded just above the pivot point of USD 103.70/ton for most of the week before falling below it on Friday. Volumes were noticeably lower in the later part of the week. Highest volume was observed on 30/Oct (Wed). SGX Iron Ore Futures Fundamentals in Summary China’s parliament has started its five-day meeting on 4/Nov (Mon) and is expected to announce the details of the fiscal support on 8/Nov (Fri). Analysts suggest the fiscal plan could reach 10 trillion yuan (USD 1.4 trillion), with most funds likely allocated to refinancing local government debt. The outcome is likely to drive significant volatility during the week. China’s manufacturing PMI rose from 49.8 to 50.1 in Oct as the manufacturing sector shifted into expansion after 5 months of contraction. Non-manufacturing PMI also rose to 50.2 from 50.0. Steel industry PMI rose to 54.6 from 49 in prior month. The PMI reading was the highest since July 2018. The output index rose to 63.6 suggesting the stimulus helped boost steel production. Caxin’s China manufacturing PMI rose from 49.3 to 50.3 in October recovering from the dip in September. IO China Portside inventories rose by 770k tons to 150.1 million tons last week. The pickup volume declined further by 13k tons. Accumulating inventories pose a risk to IO demand. Based on seasonality, SGX IO Futures Dec contract trades 3.6% higher than its last 5-year average (USD 99.31/ton). Short-Term Moving Averages Signal Bearish Trend Prices recovered following the bearish MA crossover on 22/Oct but failed to rise above the 21-day moving average. The 21-day moving average served as a resistance level throughout last week. Long-Term Averages Provide Support Prices shot above the 100-day moving average on 28/Oct (Mon) and managed to hold above this level for the rest of the week. Price re-tested this support level on 4/Nov (Mon) but seems to be holding above it for now. MACD Points to Fading Decline The MACD suggests a weakening bearish trend, with the short-term MA positioned just below the long-term MA. However, both MAs are trending downward, making a bullish crossover unlikely without a sharp rally. The long-term MA may serve as support. The RSI is near a neutral level at 51.02. Fibonacci 38.2% Tested Last Week Following the retracement of the bearish trend since the start of October, prices rallied to the 38.2% Fib level but failed to surpass it. This could indicate a continuation of the bearish trend. Though, the USD 100/ton level may provide psychological support. Price Trading Just Below Volume Point of Control Sellers continued to dominate trading despite an uptick in buyers early last week. Price faced resistance at the volume point of control for October (USD 103.55/ton). There is another area of volume concentration at (USD 101.15/ton) which could provide near-term support. Bollinger Bands Narrowing with Low Volatility Bollinger Bands for IO futures are narrowing and their width is near the lowest contraction since August, increasing the likelihood of a sharp breakout. Price is currently at the mid-point of the Bollinger Bands. Historical Volatility also continued to decline last week and reached its lowest level since August. Iron Ore Options Favor Calls SGX IO options expiring in December have an OI put/call ratio of 0.86 as of 1/Nov which favors calls. Over the past week, trading in this contract was heavily skewed towards call with a volume put/call ratio of 0.38. Additionally, last week, near-term options expiring in November saw a large buildup of call options around the USD 105 strike suggesting bullish sentiment in the near-term. The delta-25 options skew for December options also shows a sharp increase in call IV alongside a narrowing skew suggesting high demand for calls. Hypothetical Trade Setup Iron Ore volatility has reached its lowest level since August. The rally last week failed to continue past the short-term moving average and the volume profile point of control and IO gave up substantial gains in the later part of the week despite the encouraging data from PMI releases. The results of the ongoing parliamentary meeting are expected on 9/Nov (Fri) and are likely to drive substantial moves in prices. Options activity over the last week showed a high concentration of activity for call options, especially at the strike level of USD 105/ton. The IV for IO options has also been rising unlike the historical volatility. A sharp upside move is likely, though, if the fiscal stimulus disappoints, prices may also decline sharply. Expressing the bullish view through a long futures exposes the position to higher risk if stimulus disappoints. Investors can instead express the bullish view using SGX IO options. A bullish call spread benefits from an increase in prices and offers a fixed upside and fixed downside along with a smaller premium cost than a long call position. Bullish call spread consists of long call at a lower strike and short call at a higher strike. A hypothetical trade setup consisting of USD 105/ton for the long call leg and USD 109/ton for the short call leg on the options contract expiring on 31/Dec offers a reward to risk ratio of 3x. The USD 109/ton level coincides with the peak during the last rally in mid-October and is close to the 200-day moving average, prices could face resistance above this level. This position offers a max profit of USD 299/lot and a max loss of USD 101/lot and breaks even when prices rise above USD 106.1/ton. DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
SGX:FEF2!Long
by MintBulkCommods
News Failure and Favorable Winds for Chinese StocksFundamentals & Sentiment CN50A: - PBOC has officially ramped up support for the stock market, relending facility launched - Couldn't hold lower after bad Industrial profits release USD: - De-escalation sentiment after the attack on Iran Technical & Other Setup: S(RTF) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 1h Medium-term: Sideways Long-term: Up Min target: Local high Stop loss: 0.9% Position size: 0.5 of the normal Risk Unit Buy Limit
OANDA:CN50USDLong
by Cherry94
1
Copper - The impact of China's support packagesCopper is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its descending channel. As long as copper is in the range, selling at the ceiling and buying at the bottom of the range will be recommended. If copper falls due to the release of today's economic data, we can see demand zone and buy within that zone with a suitable risk reward. If the upward trend starts and the ceiling of the range is broken, it is possible to sell copper in the specified supply zone. Chinese banks have recently reduced interest rates on existing mortgage loans, which amount to a total of 25.2 trillion yuan. This move aims to support the real estate market and bolster China’s economy. Meanwhile, the CEO of Maersk stated that they do not expect to navigate the Red Sea efficiently until 2025. Additionally, they see no signs of a decline in global demand or transaction volumes in the coming months. Maersk, one of the largest shipping companies in the world, was founded in Denmark in 1904 and is known for its extensive operations in maritime shipping, logistical services, transport, and financial services. On Tuesday, the World Bank reported that global commodity prices are projected to drop to their lowest in five years by 2025. In its latest Commodity Markets Outlook (CMO), the bank noted that despite this decline, overall commodity prices will remain 30% higher than five years before the COVID-19 pandemic. Although forecasts vary by commodity, improved supply conditions are cited as a key factor in the overall price reduction. A Reuters survey predicts that the global economy will grow by 3.1% in 2024 and 3.0% in 2025. These figures mark a change compared to the July survey, which projected 3.1% growth for both years. According to a recent analytical note from Bank of America, U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) for this month are expected to increase by around 100,000 jobs, a significant decrease from the 254,000 jobs added in September. This decline is primarily attributed to disruptions caused by Hurricane Milton and the Boeing workers’ strike, which likely reduced job opportunities and working hours.
CAPITALCOM:COPPER
by Ali_PSND
IO Weekly Technicals Review [2024/43]: Term Structure Divergence SGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) Index Futures (“SGX IO Futures”) closed nearly flat last week, down by just USD 0.10/ton on Friday after recovering from a mid-week decline. SGX IO Futures opened at USD 101.65/ton on 21/Oct (Mon) and closed at USD 101.55/ton on 25/Oct (Fri). Prices briefly touched a weekly high of USD 103.45/ton on 21/Oct (Mon) and a low of USD 98.10/ton on 24/Oct (Thu). It traded in a range of USD 5.35/ton during the week, which was smaller than the prior week. Prices traded below the pivot point of USD 103.35/ton for the entire week but managed to hold support above the S1 pivot point at 97.65. Volume peaked on 25/Oct (Fri) as Iron Ore prices rallied from near their low following the announcement of a parliamentary meeting to discuss the stimulus package between 4/Nov and 8/Nov. SGX Iron Ore Futures Fundamentals in Summary Iron Ore received support in the later part of the week from the announcement of a parliamentary meeting to discuss the stimulus package in China which will take place between 4/Nov and 8/Nov. The People's Bank of China also said in a statement it had activated the open market outright reverse repo operations facility to "maintain a reasonable abundance of liquidity in the banking system and further enrich the central bank's policy toolbox“ ahead of a significant loan expiry at the end of the year. IO China Portside inventories declined by 400k tons to 149.33 million tons last week. The decline was driven by slower arrivals as pickup volume declined week on week and steel mill’s restocking pace was below analyst expectations. Based on seasonality, SGX IO Futures Nov contract trades 2.6% below its last 5-year average (USD 105.58/ton). Seasonal Trend also suggests a price low is expected in the next few weeks. Short-Term Moving Averages Signal Reversal of Bullish Trend Prices began the week on a downward trend, marked by a bearish moving average (MA) crossover on 22/Oct (Tue). After the crossover, prices declined 3%, briefly dipping just above the S1 Pivot Point before recovering sharply on 25/Oct (Fri). On 28/Oct (Mon), prices are trading slightly below the 21-day moving average and the R1 Pivot Point for the week. Long-Term Averages Signal Bearish Trend Last week, the price traded below the 100-day moving average, closing just under this level. On 28/Oct (Mon), it rose sharply above the 100-day moving average but remains about 5% below the 200-day moving average. MACD Points to Fading Decline, RSI Trending Higher MACD indicates that the bearish trend is weakening, with the short-term MA beginning to curve upward toward the long-term MA. This suggests a potential consolidation around the long-term MA or a bullish crossover if momentum strengthens. Meanwhile, the RSI recently crossed above its 14-day average but remains near the midpoint at 53.84. Fibonacci 61.8% Maintained Support Last Week Volatility increased throughout the week but remains below early October levels. Last week, the price tested and held support at the 61.8% Fibonacci level from the prior uptrend. Fib levels from the recent downtrend suggest that the price may next retest the 38.2% level. The 61.8% level remains noteworthy, as it has previously acted as a key area of interest. Low-Volume Node May Drive Sharp Upward Move Despite ongoing selling pressure, buyers rebounded sharply in the latter part of the week. The price is currently at a low-volume node and could rise quickly toward the point of control, which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci level. Calendar Spread Shows Deviation from Backwardation The recent price movement has created a premium on the April 2025 contract compared to the second-month contract (Nov 2024). A return to the usual backwardation structure is expected. Additionally, speculation over the next two weeks, driven by the upcoming parliamentary meeting, will likely focus on the more liquid Nov 2024 contract, which should further support the spread. Hypothetical Trade Setup Iron Ore prices received some support from the announcement of further monetary easing and hopes of further stimulus at the parliamentary meeting next week. The rally has reversed the consistent decline in IO over the past 3 weeks but outlook remains bearish as the impact of stimulus on prices has weakened since early October. In the near-term, stimulus expectations may drive a rally clouding the outlook for a straightforward short position. We propose a hypothetical trade set up of buying SGX IO November Futures Contract at USD 102.90/ton and selling the SGX IO April 2025 Futures contract at USD 103.60/ton to capitalize on the normalization of the backwardated term structure. Presently the Nov/April ratio is at 0.99324. An increase to 1.025 presents a 3.25% increase in the spread which results in a gain of USD 321 to USD 330. A stop loss at the ratio of 0.975 protects in case of further decline with a potential loss of USD 189 to USD 194. This calculation excludes transaction costs comprising of clearing broker fees and exchange clearing fees. The SGX requires a minimum initial margin of USD 320/lot and a maintenance margin of USD 352/lot for this intra-commodity spread. DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
SGX:FEFX2024Long
by MintBulkCommods
Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) To Hit 6,124 First, Then 8,660SSE had a rally from 2005 to 2007 establishing the all-time high of CNY 6,124. After that, the price had built a weird corrective structure with ups and downs fading in magnitude over a very long period of time. It took 17 years to complete the giant contracting triangle (white ABCDE marks). The pattern was broken to the upside this summer. This is the first harbinger of possible reversal and potential rally. The confirmation we wait is the breakup of the peak of wave D beyond CNY 3,724 The conservative target for the upcoming rally is located at the all-time high of CNY 6,124 The ultimate target is set at the equal distance of blue wave (A) in blue wave (C) at CNY 8,660
SSE:000001Long
by aibek
IO Weekly Technicals Review [2024/42]: IO Reversal Deepens SGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) Index Futures (“SGX IO Futures”) fell last week for a second week in a row, closing USD 4.15/ton lower by Friday. SGX IO Futures opened at USD 105.85/ton on 14/Oct (Mon) and closed at USD 101.70/ton on 18/Oct (Fri). Prices briefly touched a weekly high of USD 109.05/ton on 14/Oct (Mon) and a low of USD 99.30/ton on 17/Oct (Thu). It traded in a range of USD 9.75/ton during the week, which was smaller than the prior week. Prices traded below the pivot point of USD 108.10/ton for the entire week but managed to hold support above the S1 pivot point at 101.15. Volume peaked on 17/Oct (Thu) as Iron Ore prices declined despite the announcement of expanded housing stimulus measures. SGX Iron Ore Futures Fundamentals in Summary Further measures to support the housing industry in China were announced on 17/Oct (Thu). The measures included widened support under the “white list” program to 4 trillion Yuan. PBoC started the week with a 25 bps cut to the 5-year loan prime rate and a 25 basis point cut to the 1-year loan prime rate offering additional easing measures. Despite an early rally, IO pared gains by the end of the day. China's GDP growth in Q3 was 0.9%, falling short of analyst expectations but exceeding the 0.5% growth recorded in Q2, which was revised downward. Annual GDP growth reached 4.6%, significantly below the 5% target. IO China Portside inventories rose by 1.89M tons to 149.73 million tons last week. The increase was driven by significantly higher arrivals and low pace of pickup due to slower restocking. Based on seasonality, SGX IO Futures Nov contract trades 3.5% below its last 5-year average (USD 105.58/ton). Seasonal performance also suggests there could be a price dip with a low in the next couple of weeks. Short-Term Moving Averages Signal Reversal of Bullish Trend The 9-day moving average is continuing its downward trend and marked a bearish crossover on 21/Oct (Mon). Last week, the price held support above the S1 pivot point but faced rejection at the P pivot point on 21/Oct (Mon). Long-Term Averages Signal Bearish Trend Price fell below the 100-day moving average on 17/Oct (Thu). Despite reaching highs above this level, price has failed to close above the MA. MACD Points to Downturn, RSI Flat MACD signals an ongoing bearish trend since 16/Oct (Wed) with the distance between long and short-term MA continuing to expand as of 21/Oct (Mon). RSI is at the mid-point level of 49.5 signaling neutral trend. Volatility Eases, Fibonacci 50% Maintained Support Last Week Volatility briefly edged up in the middle of last week but now continues to decline and has reached the lowest level in October. The 50% Fibonacci level was tested last week but managed to maintain support. With a continued downward trend, the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 97.55 is the next major support level to watch if price declined below 50%. Selling Pressure Dominates, Price Gap Likely to be Tested This Week Heavy selling pressure dominates IO trading according to the Accumulation/Distribution indicator (A/D). Price trades at a high volume node which was dominated by sell volume and below a low volume valley which could be tested during the week. The bullish flag failed to maintain last week as prices fell further instead of consolidating. Hypothetical Trade Setup Iron Ore prices continued to decline last week as the expanded stimulus measures disappointed market expectations once again. Bearish trend in IO continues as fundamentals signal more pain in store and short-term MA signaled a bearish crossover. We propose a hypothetical trade set up of selling SGX IO November Futures Contract at USD 101.2/ton with a stop at USD 104.05/ton and target at USD 97.5/ton resulting in reward-to-risk ratio of 1.30x. Entry: USD 101.2/ton Target: USD 104.05/ton Stop Loss: USD 97.5/ton Profit at Target: USD 370/lot ((101.2-97.5) x 100) Loss at Stop: USD 285/lot ((101.2-104.05) x 100) Reward to Risk: 1.30x This calculation excludes transaction costs comprising of clearing broker fees and exchange clearing fees. The SGX requires a minimum initial margin of USD 1,232/lot and a maintenance margin of USD 1,120/lot. DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
SGX:FEF2!Short
by MintBulkCommods
2
$CNGDPYY - China's GDP (Q3/2024)ECONOMICS:CNGDPYY Q3/2024 source: National Bureau of Statistics of China -The Chinese economy expanded 4.6% YoY in Q3 of 2024, compared with market forecasts of 4.5% and a 4.7% rise in Q2. It marked the slowest annual growth rate since Q1 2023, amid persistent property weakness, shaky domestic demand, deflation risks, and trade frictions with the West. The latest figures came as Beijing had intensified stimulus measures to boost economic recovery and rebuild confidence. In September alone, there were some positive signs: industrial output and retail sales both saw their largest increases in four months, and the urban jobless rate fell to a three-month low of 5.1%. On the trade front, however, exports rose the least in five months while imports were sluggish. In the first three quarters of the year, the economy grew by 4.8%, compared with China’s full-year target of around 5%. During the period, fixed investment rose by 3.4% yoy, topping consensus of 3.3%.
ECONOMICS:CNGDPYY
by Mr_J__fx
XAUUSD | Market outlookGold Reserve Diversification: At the LBMA conference, central bank representatives shared that gold purchases are driven by financial and strategic goals. US Election Impact: Uncertainty over the upcoming presidential elections, with Trump and Harris closely tied in polls, is prompting banks to hedge risks. Geopolitical Risks: Tensions in the Middle East are also boosting gold, with Israel expressing readiness to target Iran's military infrastructure. Price Trends: Long-term trend: Upward, aiming to break the historical high of 2685.00 . Potential targets: 2750.00 and 2810.00 if consolidation succeeds. Support and Correction: If the price drops to 2602.00 , long positions toward 2685.00 are favourable. A breakout below 2602.00 could trigger a correction targeting 2546.00 and 2471.00 . Medium-term trend: Correction: Last week’s correction did not reach key support at 2575.61–2564.61 . If a reversal occurs, the price could rise to 2685.61 and potentially 2712.70–2701.70 . Correction Scenario: If another correction develops, the price may revisit 2575.61–2564.61 , followed by growth toward 2625.00 and 2685.00 .
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by DCFX-TA
$CNIRYY -China's CPI (September/2024)ECONOMICS:CNIRYY Inflation Data (September/2024) source: National Bureau of Statistics of China -China’s annual inflation rate stood at 0.4% in September 2024, below market forecasts and August’s figure of 0.6%. This was the 8th month of consumer inflation but was the lowest print since June, highlighting the need for more policy support from Beijing to address growing deflation risks. Non-food prices declined by 0.2%, following a 0.2% rise in August as the cost of transport shrank further (-4.1% vs -2.7%) due to lower crude oil prices. Also, housing prices edged down (-0.1% vs flat reading) amid government efforts to further regulate the property market. Meanwhile, cost slowed for health (1.2% vs 1.3%) and education (0.6% vs 1.3%). On the food side, prices rose for the second month, with the rate of increase the fastest in 20 months (3.3% vs 2.8%). Core consumer prices, excluding food and energy costs, increased 0.1% yoy, the smallest rise since February 2021, after a 0.3% gain in August. Monthly, the CPI was unchanged, compared with consensus and August’s print of a 0.4% rise.
ECONOMICS:CNIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
FXI Still Time to Capitalize on the China Stimulus RallyThe recent surge in Chinese stocks following China’s central bank stimulus announcement signals a promising opportunity for those looking at the iShares China Large-Cap ETF. The stimulus package, part of a series of aggressive moves from Chinese policymakers, reflects a significant shift in their approach to economic management. For years, China hesitated to implement large-scale stimulus measures, fearing the long-term risks. However, the latest actions show that this cautious mindset has been abandoned, with the government now prioritizing immediate economic recovery. This newfound willingness to deploy powerful monetary tools suggests that China’s central bank is prepared to act decisively to combat the economic pressures the country is facing. With this level of commitment, it’s reasonable to expect that the stimulus will have a meaningful impact, potentially accelerating growth in key sectors. The iShares China Large-Cap ETF, which tracks some of the largest Chinese companies, stands to benefit significantly from this shift. As these companies often reflect the broader health of China’s economy, investors could see strong gains in the near term as the effects of the stimulus ripple through the markets. Given the central bank's proactive measures and the potential for further interventions, the iShares China Large-Cap ETF presents a compelling opportunity for bullish investors who want to capitalize on China's economic rebound.
AMEX:FXILong
by TopgOptions
Copper Pulls Back as China Optimism FadesCopper extended the August rebound into autumn and reached three-month highs, helped by the Fed’s jumbo rate cut and massive stimulus from Chinese authorities aiming to prop the economy and the property sector. However the measures do little to address the structural problems and the real estate market is unlikely to return to its former glory, while the lack of follow through on the fiscal front this week caused prior optimism to subside. Furthermore, the Fed has struck a more cautious approach towards further easing and Friday’s strong jobs report supported the reserved commentary. Markets have now priced out previous aggressive bets for 75 bps of cuts this year, aligning with the Fed’s 50 bps projections. Copper pulls back as a result, threatening the EMA200 (black line) and the 50% Fibonacci of the recent recovery. A breach would pause the upside bias, send the non-ferrous metal into the daily Ichimoku Cloud and expose it to the ascending trend line from the August lows. Deeper correction however does not look easy under the current technical and fundamental backdrop. There are still hopes for additional Chinese stimulus (potentially within the weekend), while prospects of US soft-landing and easier monetary policies in major economies can support higher prices. So do the AI boom and the green energy transition. Copper tries to defend the EMA200 that maintains its recovery momentum. This will allow it to push again towards 4.791, but we are cautious around further strength at this stage. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”) (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
FX:COPPERLong
by FXCM
JD.com (JD): Massive 97% Rally—What's Next?We mentioned Chinese stocks a while ago, and finally, they're starting to pay off—big time. We bought shares of JD.com back in July, and after a small dip, the stock soared an impressive 97% in just 65 days. Shares of U.S.-listed Chinese companies are gaining momentum, fueled by continued stimulus efforts. September's PMI data beat expectations despite a decline in factory activity, which has further bolstered hopes for increased stimulus. Over the past week, JD.com's stock surged following the People’s Bank of China's aggressive monetary easing measures. The central bank reduced the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 50 basis points, bringing it down to 9.5%. This move will inject around 1 trillion yuan (approximately $140 billion) into the financial system. The increased liquidity gives banks more capital to lend, easing financial pressures on businesses like JD.com that rely heavily on consumer spending and economic confidence. JD.com, often considered a barometer for China’s domestic consumption, has benefited significantly from this shift in sentiment, with investors betting that further stimulus measures could lead to increased consumer spending on e-commerce platforms. From a technical perspective, there's not much left to say—we took some profits on JD.com, as this parabolic rise could either continue or see a pullback before another leg higher. All indications point towards further gains for JD.com, as it has smashed through all resistance and trend channels with remarkable strength. Our stop loss is set at break even, and we’re letting this trade continue to run.
NASDAQ:JDLong
by freeguy_by_wmc
3
Who Gets Rich in China's Market Rally?On September 24th, China announced an unprecedented fiscal stimulus, aiming to rescue its ailing economy. As soon as the news got out, China’s stock market staged a huge rally. The Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) index moved from below 2,800 on September 24th to close at 3,336.5 on September 30th, up 19% in a week. One-month return for the SSE and notable Chinese stocks are listed here: • SSE: +17.5% • Yonghui Supermarkets: +59.9% • JD: +51.3% • BABA: +32.5% • BIDU: +25.5% China's stock market is closed on October 1-7 to observe the National Day holiday. Social media is floating a lot of fairytales about who made a big fortune in the last week of September. Here are two of the stories: The first one is about MINISO, a boutique Chinese department store chain with over 5,000 stores worldwide. It is listed on the NYSE under the stock symbol $MNSO. On September 23rd, MINISO announced that it would acquire 2.67 billion shares of troubled supermarket chain Yonghui Supermarkets (601933.SH), at RMB 2.25 per share. The next day, China announced the stimulus package, and all stock prices shot up. On September 30th, Yonghui closed at RMB 3.63, up 1.38 yuan or 61.3% from a week ago. With the acquisition of 2.67 billion shares, MINISO stands to make a profit of RMB 3.68 billion, equivalent to US$200 million (at USD/RMB exchange rate of 7.09). MINISO could sit on the nice profit for three months and do nothing. It does not have to remit payment for the acquisition until Q1 2025. Is this just good luck or what? The second story is about Michael Burry of Scion Capital, a Wall Street outcast made famous by Michael Lewis’ bestseller, the Big Short, and the hit movie with the same title, with Christian Bale portraying Burry. Recent SEC filing shows that as of the end of Q2 2024, Scion’s largest stock holding is BABA, accounting for 22% of its fund. JD and BIDU are its fourth and fifth holding, respectively. Each is for about a 12.5% share. For an unknown reason, the Big Short turned into a Big Long with nearly half of its investment concentrating on Chinese stocks. With a timing precision, Burry scooped them up cheap just before they popped. Is this superb stock picking skill, or just luck? Would the China rally continue when the market resumes trading on Tuesday? Goldman Sachs just released a research note, saying: Unless China does QE now, the current market rally will crash and burn, and the economy will be a crater. If China does do QE, oil will soar, and gold and bitcoin will be orders of magnitude higher. While this is presented as two alternative paths, there is only one way to go, in all practical purpose. After going all out last month with unprecedented fiscal stimulus, the Chinese government could not afford to see the stock market and the housing market to tank again. It really needs to finish the job by injecting financial stimulus into the economy. Now that the market sensation has already turned positive, government spending would trigger consumer spending as well as investment from the private sector. Such a multiplier effect could lift the Chinese economy higher. Happy Trading!
SSE:000001Long
by JimHuangChicago
CNH: Chinese Currency Could Return to the 6.3-6.9 LevelCME: USD/Offshore RMB Futures ( CME:CNH1! ) Last week, I discussed how China’s huge stimulus package, coupled with the Fed’s supersized rate cut, could improve global energy demand and lift crude oil higher. As soon as the stimulus was announced, China’s stock market staged a huge rally. The Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) index moved from below 2,800 on September 24th to close at 3,336.5 on September 30th, up 19% in a week. One-month return for the SSE and notable Chinese stocks are listed here: • SSE: +17.5% • Yonghui Supermarkets: +59.9% • JD: +51.3% • BABA: +32.5% • BIDU: +25.5% China's stock market is closed on October 1st-7th for observation of the National Day holiday. Would the China rally continue when the market resumes trading on Tuesday? Goldman Sachs just released a research note, saying: Unless China does QE now, the current market rally will crash and burn, and the economy will be a crater. If China does do QE, oil will soar, and gold and bitcoin will be orders of magnitude higher. While this is presented as two alternative paths, there is only one way to go, in all practical purpose. After going all out last month with unprecedented fiscal stimulus, the Chinese government could not afford to see the stock market and the housing market to tank again. It really needs to finish the job by injecting fiscal stimulus into the economy. Now that the market sensation has already turned positive, government spending would trigger consumer spending as well as investment from the private sector. Such a multiplier effect could lift the Chinese economy higher. Everything looks bright, with one small problem: China-listed stocks are off-limited to most foreign investors due to financial regulations and the foreign currency control regime. China’s currency could strengthen as its economy recovers I hold the view that the China’s currency could appreciate as its economy improves. Outside of China, investors could invest in USD/RMB futures to hitch the economic hike. To start the discussion, let’s first make some clarification to the confusing terms in the FX market. The USD/RMB exchange rate is quoted as the number of RMB per dollar. The current USD/RMB rate is 7.09, meaning each dollar could exchange for 7.09 RMB. When the RMB appreciates against the dollar, the price quote would get lower, not higher. For example, the rate 6.50 means you now need 6.50 RMB to get one USD dollar. In RMB terms, this is 0.59 Yuan less than the current USD/RMB rate 7.09. In this scenario, the RMB gains value relative to the dollar. While the RMB appreciation equates to the dollar depreciation, in charts, the lines representing USD/RMB and the dollar index should move in the same direction. • For dollar index, the line moving up means dollar gaining value. • For the USD/RMB, the line moving up means the dollar appreciating against the RMB. • These two things usually occur at the same time. In 2023, as China’s economy did not rebound after the end of the pandemic closedown, the RMB depreciated more than 10% against the dollar, sending the rate from 6.69 to 7.37. In 2024, the two lines diverged due to different economic forces. • Dollar index moves down with the market expectation of the Fed cutting rates, reducing the interest earned from holding dollar asset. • The USD/RMB quote moves up because of the slowdown in China’s economy. In my opinion, the two lines will converge again, both moving down in Q4. Dollar index will get lower as the Fed continues rate cuts. The USD/RMB quote will also go lower, as improvement in China’s economy would strengthen the country’s currency. For someone with a bullish view of RMB, he could establish a short position in CME USD/Offshore RMB Futures ( NYSE:CNH ). Remember, shorting means the expectation of the quote to go lower, which actually means RMB appreciating against the dollar. The contract has a notional value of $100,000. At Friday closing price of 7.061, each December contract (CNHZ4) is worth RMB 706,100. CME Group requires an initial margin of RMB 14,000 for each CNH contract, long or short, at the time of writing. Hypothetically, if CNH bounced back to 6.70, its previous high in January 2023, the quote difference of 361 pips (=7061-6700) would produce a gain of RMB 36,100 (=0.361x100,000) for a short position. The risk of shorting the CNH is that the Chinese government did not follow through with a fiscal stimulus, and the market rally is short lived. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME:CNH1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
CSIQ bullish over multiyear period, Battery Energy Storage upsidCSIQ may be weak in the short term, but the price leave plenty of potenial upside for a multiyear period. -deep below tangible book value. price under 20 now and tangible book value near 40. -2.87 eps next year '25 expected, and 10.00 potential over next 5 years on a under 20$ stock -62% ownership in CSI solar subsidiary which trades in china , offsets all or most of csiq debt 5 year price target potentials -tangible book level, stock could initially spike to at least tangible book level (deepvalue) -as EPS rises, stock could trade at some multiple of earnings , 20-30 multiple on 10 eps? On BESS and CSI/CSIQ",credit perplexity.ai search Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) are becoming increasingly important in the renewable energy sector, and Canadian Solar Inc. (CSIQ) along with its subsidiary CSI Solar are well-positioned to benefit from the industry's growth over the next 5 years. Here's an overview of the situation: ## BESS Industry Growth The battery energy storage market is experiencing rapid expansion due to several factors: - Increasing adoption of renewable energy sources - Growing need for grid stability and peak demand management - Declining costs of battery technology - Supportive government policies and incentives ## Canadian Solar's Position Canadian Solar, through its subsidiary CSI Energy Storage, has made significant strides in the BESS market: 1. **Product Development**: In 2022, the company launched its proprietary battery storage product called SolBank for utility-scale applications . 2. **Manufacturing Capacity**: CSI Energy Storage announced plans to expand its battery manufacturing capacity from 2.5 GWh to 10 GWh by the end of 2023 . 3. **Project Pipeline**: As of Q2 2022, CSI Energy Storage's system integration pipeline reached 11 GWh, including 861 MWh under long-term service agreements and 1.9 GWh under construction or contracted . ## Benefits for CSIQ and CSI Solar Over the next 5 years, CSIQ and CSI Solar are likely to benefit from the BESS industry growth in several ways: 1. **Increased Revenue**: The company expects strong growth in its battery energy storage solutions, with shipments anticipated to increase by 500% compared to the previous year . 2. **Market Expansion**: CSI Solar is expanding into new markets, including residential energy storage and power electronics, which will help diversify its revenue streams . 3. **Synergies**: The growth in battery storage solutions will enhance synergies with the company's battery storage project development business . 4. **Competitive Advantage**: The SolBank product is positioned as one of the most bankable and competitive integrated battery storage solutions in the market . 5. **Long-term Contracts**: CSI Energy Storage's pipeline includes long-term service agreements, providing stable revenue streams . 6. **Industry Leadership**: Continuous R&D investment and technological innovation are helping CSI Solar maintain its leading position in the market . 7. **Financial Performance**: CSI Solar projects strong profitability, with net profits expected to reach up to RMB 1.40 billion in the first half of 2024, marking two consecutive quarters of growth . As the solar-plus-storage market continues to grow, Canadian Solar and CSI Solar are well-positioned to capitalize on this trend. The company's integrated approach, combining solar panel manufacturing with energy storage solutions, provides a competitive edge in the evolving renewable energy landscape. Citations: www.cpuc.ca.gov www.tipranks.com www.pvtime.org investors.canadiansolar.com seia.org sistinesolar.com www.csisolar.com www.sap.com
NASDAQ:CSIQLong
by optionfarmers
9
China Stocks: What to Expect When Markets Reopen Stocks in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong took off last week and continued their climb on Monday, posting their best single-day rally in 16 years. This surge came after several announcements from Beijing aimed at boosting the country’s economy. But now, The Shanghai Stock Exchange will be closed from Oct. 1 to Oct. 7 for China’s National Day celebrations, and Hong Kong’s market will also shut on Oct. 1. However, U.S.-listed China ETFs will still be trading, so when the Chinese exchanges reopen on Oct. 7, we could see big moves as global investors get ahead of the Chinese market. China’s stock market is known for its wild swings, mainly because retail investors make up about two-thirds of the trading. That means we might see some significant volatility once the markets open back up.
H
by BlackBull_Markets
CNY/USD Trend since 06 2007. Channel. Reversal zone.Logarithm. Time frame 1 week. At the moment, the currency is stronger than the dollar. The main trend is a descending channel. The price is in it now. Secondary trend — breakout of the descending trend line. Price growth to the median of the channel, and in case of its breakthrough, to the resistance. If not, then a pullback to the lower zone of the channel. Local trend — The nearest events and news background, which can affect (not necessarily) locally (movements to the median of the channel, i.e., the middle, if it is positive) on the yuan rate. This, in less than 1 month, namely from October 22 to 24, 2024 will be held 7.16 XVI BRICS summit (short for Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) in Russia in Kazan. Line graph for visualization.
Long
by SpartaBTC
2