China A50 Index is ready for a huge moveThe China Index A50 holds huge potential for a massive trade.
The white fork projects the most likely direction the price will take. What supports this long idea is the fact that the market changed its downward behavior when it broke through the trend barrier on September 2, 2024.
The expected pullback has manifested right before our eyes, so we are now at a point that offers us a wonderful long entry.
China
baba stock is in a critical levelhello
i see if it breaks up this current level it will reachs 130 then it will decide if up more or reverse down because 130 is major historical level that tells several stories
keep eyes on my levels in order to know where the market can attract you
Remember that i am not using a crista ball ptredicting future but i try to be more efficient and more rational
good luck
Apple Surges 3% in Premarket Amid AI Optimism & Strong ForecastApple Inc. (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:AAPL ) has seen a notable 3.46% surge in premarket trading, defying concerns over declining China sales. The upward momentum follows an optimistic sales forecast, hinting at a resurgence in iPhone demand fueled by Apple's strategic adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) features.
Earnings Outlook
Apple’s latest earnings report revealed a nuanced performance, with robust overall revenue counterbalanced by a slight dip in iPhone sales. Despite a shortfall in China, where revenue declined 11% to $18.5 billion—falling short of the projected $21.57 billion—Apple’s services unit exhibited strong growth, climbing 14% year-over-year to $26.34 billion. This exceeded Wall Street expectations of $26.09 billion, reinforcing Apple’s ability to diversify revenue streams beyond hardware sales.
CEO Tim Cook emphasized that Apple Intelligence, the company’s AI-powered suite of features, is playing a crucial role in boosting iPhone sales where available. However, Apple’s cautious approach to AI investments, unlike its peers such as Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta (META), has insulated its stock from recent market turbulence. The restrained AI strategy aligns with Apple's focus on integrating AI within its hardware ecosystem, enhancing device functionality without excessive capital expenditure on data centers.
The company posted earnings of $2.42 per share on revenue of $124.3 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $2.36 EPS on $124.12 billion revenue. While iPhone sales, accounting for nearly half of Apple's revenue, declined to $69.14 billion from $69.70 billion year-over-year, the broader growth trajectory suggests a potential iPhone rebound in FY26.
Technical Outlook
From a technical standpoint, NASDAQ:AAPL is demonstrating strong bullish patterns. The stock is currently up 3.41%, benefiting from the renewed confidence in its growth trajectory. Prior to this recent rally, Apple shares had experienced a 15% decline since late December 2024. However, the current price action suggests a recovery, with NASDAQ:AAPL reclaiming 10% of its lost value, forming a falling wedge pattern—a historically bullish signal.
The premarket surge sets up the possibility of a gap-up pattern at market open, a strong bullish indicator that could further accelerate buying pressure. In the event of a pullback, immediate support lies at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, a key level that often dictates price reversals in technical analysis.
The China Factor and AI’s Role in Future Growth
While Apple’s sales slump in China remains a wildcard, analysts expect a recovery once Apple Intelligence is introduced in the region. The lack of AI features has been cited as a major reason for weaker-than-expected sales in the Chinese market. TD Cowen analysts predict that demand could rebound once Apple secures a local partner to facilitate AI integration, boosting sales in a highly competitive market.
Moreover, Apple's performance relative to its tech peers remains strong. In 2024, Apple stock surged 30.07%, outperforming Microsoft’s 12.09% increase but trailing Meta’s impressive 65.42% rise. Apple’s 12-month forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 31.12, compared to Microsoft’s 29.2 and Meta’s 26, indicating sustained investor confidence in Apple’s long-term growth potential.
AAPL Positioned for Further Gains
Apple’s ability to weather market challenges, coupled with its strategic AI rollout, positions it favorably for continued growth. The bullish technical setup, strong fundamentals, and AI-driven sales optimism indicate that AAPL could maintain its upward trajectory. Investors should monitor key support and resistance levels, as well as further developments regarding Apple Intelligence’s expansion into new markets.
With analysts raising price targets and market sentiment improving, Apple’s stock could be on track for a sustained rally in 2024 and beyond.
New ai Model QWEN 2.5 could be catalyst for BABA - Target 200Baba just released Qwen 2.5, an ai model that is rated to be as good or better as DeepSeek and Chat gpt. This might serve as an additionally revenue stream to an already cheap stock. More importantly, it can serve as a catalyst to ignite investor interest and stock demand.
Currently around 10 pe (seeking alpha data), multiple expansion and eps growth could boost BABA into the 200s or higher given a long term outlook. While the US seeks many ai stocks at high multiple of revenue and earnings, chinese stocks are way cheaper and in theory have less price risk. However, they still have geo political and currency risks.
Baba has a large cash pile. This not only makes it slightly less risky, it also serves as potential ammunition for further innovation, acquisitions, or worst case, cash returned to investors.
2000 $CSCO vs 2025 $NVDA, is the similar crash possible?🚨 Could Nvidia be the next Cisco? 🚨
In 2000, Cisco dominated networking with its own chips. But competitors used cheaper, nearly as effective chips, and the stock dropped from $82 to $8 in just 2 years. Is the same fate possible for Nvidia?
Cisco invested heavily in its IOS CLI and aggressively defended it.
Nvidia did the same with CUDA, taking action against anyone trying to make alternatives.
But now, competition is heating up.
DeepSeek and other companies could lead those who over-invested in Nvidia chips on borrowed money to offload them, flooding the second-hand market with GPUs.
Meanwhile, the Magnificent 7 might slow down orders since they already have tons of Nvidia chips stockpiled.
Just like Cisco switches were 80% off in 2001, could we see a similar scenario with Nvidia?
And let’s talk about the $2000 RTX 5090 — would you buy one today?
Nvidia has committed huge resources to TSMC for chip production. They could be facing an overstock issue, and slashing prices could hurt profit margins. 😬
We will soon know the direction it will go, next few quarters will show us all.
NVIDIA (NVDA): DeepSeek’s AI Shakeup Sends Nvidia PlummetingNvidia is down an astonishing 15% in just a few hours. The primary driver? Fundamentally, the announcement of Chinese startup DeepSeek has sent shockwaves through the market. This previously unknown company reportedly holds a significant number of Nvidia chips and claims to have developed an AI superior to ChatGPT with just a $6 million investment. This disrupts the entire tech landscape, as companies like Google and others are pouring billions into AI research and development. The news casts doubt on the competitive edge of industry giants, and Nvidia is caught in the crossfire, given its strong ties to AI development and chip demand.
From a technical perspective, Nvidia recently respected the upper boundary of its volume profile but failed to break above it—a likely factor contributing to this sell-off, though the DeepSeek announcement remains the major catalyst. The price has now dropped back to the Point of Control (POC) at $120, leaving a significant gap behind.
While a complete gap fill would be surprising in the short term, it’s not out of the question. However, we’re not looking to catch a falling knife here. Given the uncertainty around potential developments with DeepSeek, caution is important.
Our current plan is as follows: We are keeping the stop-loss for our first position at $114.50 to limit risk. A second entry is being considered in the range between $111 and $106.70, as this aligns well with both the wave ((ii)) structure and the volume profile.
This plan is not yet finalised, as we’re closely monitoring how the situation unfolds. For now, patience is key, given the volatility and the ongoing uncertainty.
AUD/USD slides on Trump tariff threatsThe Australian dollar is in negative territory on Tuesday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6252, down 0.62%.
Investors are keeping a closer eye on the third-quarter inflation report, which will be released early on Wednesday. CPI is expected to ease to 2.5% from 2.8%. This is the final tier-1 event prior to the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate meeting on Feb. 18 and could be the determining factor as to whether the RBA finally lowers interest rates. The markets have priced in about an 80% chance of a quarter-point cut at the February meeting. The RBA has maintained the cash rate at 4.35% since Nov. 2023 and has been an outlier among other major central banks, most of which have entered an easing cycle.
The US dollar is showing broad strength today, after US President Trump said on Monday that he would impose tariffs on steel, aluminum and copper imported to the U.S. Trump reiterated that he plans to levy a baseline universal tariff on all imports. Trump's tariff plans would likely raise inflation and could destabilize the financial markets, which displayed strong swings during Trump's first week in office.
China's services and manufacturing sectors both decelerated in January and missed expectations. The non-manufacturing PMI fell to 50.2, down from 52.2 in December and shy of the forecast of 51.8. With the exception of November, service activity has been stagnant, with readings barely above the 50 level, which separates expansion from contraction. Domestic demand weakened and the uncertainty surrounding Donald Trump's trade policies have dampened foreign sales.
The manufacturing sector is struggling and contracted in January, easing to 49.1, compared to 50.1 in December and missing the market estimate of 50.1. This was the first contraction since September 2024 and the sharpest decline in five months. Manufacturing output and foreign orders weakened in January and the weak global economy could mean further headwinds in 2025 for the manufacturing sector.
China's government has implemented stimulus measures in order to boost the economy and GDP hit 5% in 2024. Still, deflation has persisted and consumer spending remains weak. The government will have to inject further stimulus in order to boost domestic consumption, a key engine of economic growth.
AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6278. Below, there is support at 0.6225
0.6366 and 0.6419 are the next resistance lines
Nothing bad happendThe US markets fell sharply today. The S&P500 lost almost 2%. Many investors, especially on social media, are wondering whether the “Trump Rally” is now over. I think this is extremely unlikely. As is so often the case, markets tend to exaggerate, both upwards and downwards.
The price slide was triggered by news from China. Th AMEX:SPY ere, the start-up “DeepSeek” has announced that it has AI models that work just as well as their US counterparts at a much lower price and with less data.
This will certainly not have a lasting impact, but it should make us aware that the AI party will be over at some point.
AUD/USD slides on soft Chinese dataThe Australian dollar is in negative territory on Monday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6276, down 0.59%. The Australian dollar is coming off its best weekly performance since Nov. 2023, gaining 2% against the US dollar.
China's services and manufacturing sectors both decelerated in January and missed expectations. The non-manufacturing PMI fell to 50.2, down from 52.2 in December and shy of the forecast of 51.8. With the exception of November, service activity has been stagnant, with readings barely above the 50 level, which separates expansion from contraction. Domestic demand weakened and the uncertainty surrounding Donald Trump's trade policies have dampened foreign sales.
The manufacturing sector is struggling and contracted in January, easing to 49.1. compared to 50.1 in December and missing the market estimate of 50.1. This was the first contraction since September 2024 and the sharpest decline in five months. Manufacturing output and foreign orders weakened in January and the weak global economy could mean further headwinds in 2025 for the manufacturing sector.
China's government has implemented stimulus measures in order to boost the economy and GDP hit 5% in 2024. Still, deflation has persisted and consumer spending remains weak. The government will have to inject further stimulus in order to boost domestic consumption, a key engine of economic growth.
Australia releases the National Australia Bank business confidence index early on Tuesday. The index fell sharply to -3 in November, down sharply from 5 in October. The markets are expecting a rebound for December, with a forecast of 3 points. Investors are also keeping an eye on the third-quarter inflation report, which will be released on Wednesday. CPI is expected to ease to 2.5% from 2.8%. This is the final tier-1 event prior to the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate meeting on Feb. 18.
AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6284. Below, there is support at 0.6256
0.6308 and 0.6336 are the next resistance line
Bitcoin - Will Bitcoin continue its upward trend?Bitcoin is trading below the EMA50 and EMA200 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its descending channel. Capital outflows from Bitcoin ETFs or risk off sentiment in the US stock market will pave the way for Bitcoin to fall.
Bitcoin’s upward correction and its placement in the supply zone will allow us to resell it. It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important. If the downward trend continues, we can buy in the demand zone.
Donald Trump, the President of the United States, has signed an executive order establishing a task force on digital asset markets. The task force’s mission is to explore ways for the U.S. to lead in the cryptocurrency industry while evaluating the creation of a national strategic digital asset reserve.
Many who are familiar with cryptocurrencies recognize Bitcoin as “digital gold” due to its unique characteristics. According to a recent study, an increasing number of Americans now prefer Bitcoin over gold. ChainPlay, in collaboration with Storible, conducted a survey asking 1,428 Americans about their views and investments in cryptocurrencies.
The study reveals that over 68% of Americans currently own some form of cryptocurrency. Furthermore, 77% plan to increase their investments in the sector by 2025, while 60% believe the value of their assets will double by that year. Other sources indicate that only 13% of Americans owned cryptocurrency as of November 2024, though this discrepancy appears to depend on the methodology used.
Another survey revealed that Trump’s election victory significantly influenced public perception of cryptocurrencies, with 38% of respondents deciding to invest in crypto after the election results. Notably, 84% of these individuals made their first purchase following Trump’s win, viewing him as a pro-crypto candidate.
The idea of preferring Bitcoin over gold or stocks was once a marginal perspective during the bull market of 2017. Today, as governments worldwide announce plans to mine, store, or use Bitcoin for international payments, public opinion has shifted to view Bitcoin more favorably.
Additionally, statistics indicate that many investors have not only bought Bitcoin but have sold their traditional assets to allocate funds to the cryptocurrency. According to the survey, over 51% of these individuals are based in the U.S., reflecting unprecedented optimism toward Bitcoin as “digital gold.”
Mark Cuban, entrepreneur and TV personality, stated that Bitcoin has become a valuable asset and has reached a level of acceptance comparable to gold. Both he and Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy, emphasize that Bitcoin offers easier transportability and control compared to gold.
In the financial world, opinions on cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, remain divided. Some figures, like Warren Buffett, remain vocal critics of these assets.
Following Elon Musk’s advocacy, CZ, former CEO of Binance, also expressed support for the idea of recording government expenditures on blockchain. In a tweet, he said: “All governments should record their spending on blockchain, creating a public and immutable ledger. After all, government spending is public spending.”
According to a report from Street, Eric Trump, son of Donald Trump, recently stated that domestic cryptocurrency projects in the U.S., such as XRP and HBAR, will benefit from tax exemptions in the future, whereas foreign projects will face a 30% tax rate.
Additionally, Senator Cynthia Lummis, a Republican and Bitcoin advocate from Wyoming, has been appointed as the first chair of the Senate’s new Digital Assets Committee. Operating under the Senate Banking Committee, this new body aims to pass bipartisan legislation supporting the crypto industry and protecting investors.
Lummis announced that the committee will focus on three key areas:
1. Market Structure: Establishing a framework to improve the digital asset market structure.
2. Stablecoins: Regulating and supervising stablecoins as a crucial part of the crypto ecosystem.
3. Strategic Bitcoin Reserves: Strengthening the U.S. dollar by creating strategic Bitcoin reserves.
In a statement, Lummis said: “Digital assets are the future, and if the United States wants to maintain its position as a global leader in financial innovation, Congress must urgently pass comprehensive bipartisan laws to regulate this space and strengthen the U.S. dollar by creating strategic Bitcoin reserves.”
The committee will also oversee federal regulators to ensure compliance with laws and to prevent unjustified denial of banking services to legitimate participants.
Can the Yuan Dance to a New Tune?In the intricate ballet of global finance, the Chinese yuan performs a delicate maneuver. As Donald Trump's presidency introduces new variables with potential tariff hikes, the yuan faces depreciation pressures against a strengthening U.S. dollar. This dynamic challenges Beijing's economic strategists, who must balance the benefits of a weaker currency for exports against the risks of domestic economic instability and inflation.
The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is navigating this complex scenario with a focus on maintaining currency stability rather than aggressively stimulating growth through monetary policy easing. This cautious approach reflects a broader strategy to manage expectations and market reactions in an era where geopolitical shifts could dictate economic outcomes. The PBOC's recent moves, like suspending bond purchases and issuing warnings against speculative trades, illustrate a proactive stance in controlling the yuan's descent, aiming for an orderly adjustment rather than a chaotic fall.
This situation provokes thought on the resilience and adaptability of China's economic framework. How will Beijing reconcile its growth ambitions with the currency's stability, especially under the looming shadow of U.S. trade policies? The interplay between these two economic giants will shape their bilateral relations and influence global trade patterns, investment flows, and perhaps even the future of monetary policy worldwide. As we watch this economic dance unfold, one must ponder the implications for international markets and the strategic responses from other global players.
$CNGDPYY -China 2024 GDP Meets Official Target ECONOMICS:CNGDPYY
Q4/2024
- The Chinese economy expanded by 5.4% yoy in Q4 2024, topping estimates of 5.0% and accelerating from a 4.6% rise in Q3.
It was the strongest annual growth rate in 1-1/2 years, boosted by a series of stimulus measures introduced since September to boost recovery and regain confidence.
For full year, the GDP grew by 5.0%, aligning with Beijing's target of around 5% but falling short of a 5.2% rise in 2023.
America's 500 correct Trump inauguration and second termDonald Trump's inauguration for his second term will shake the market to adapt to his fringe trade policies. The upcoming Trump Administration already announced to impose tariffs which will advance the cause for more domestic production, but as the general cost of goods will rise, so will inflation. The first correction of the market will set S&P500 below its 200-day average. As it is unclear which role the most influential billionaire of the world, Elon Musk, will have on government policies, the market will at least frown on this uncertainty, if not react to his announcements, that "it needs to get worse before it gets better" with overall sellout.
Meanwhile, major trading counterparts in the world, namely Mexico and the EU prepared for a second term of the loathed-by-leaders protectionist. China, currently in unsettling nationwide economy cooldown, braces for upcoming conflicts with the sole remaining 20th century super-power, as the inevitable Battle for Taiwan would be the longed-for distraction and a cause to get the increasingly incredulous chinese people behind the ever-scrutinized leader Xi Jinping. The conflict will further impact the High Tech industry of the west, as despite measures to recess from dependencies with the powerful Chinese economy, certain resources and products are not yet available anywhere else. Leading analysts don't see a conflict with China happening for another 2 years, opening the chance for China's economy to recover and further depress the urge of its leading powers to find a unifying cause.
This China A50 bounce could have legsThe China A50 futures market topped in October after a near 50% surge in just three weeks. Yet as price action since appears to have been corrective, I'm seeking evidence that its retracement has ended. And that is why Tuesday's bounce from the 200-day SMA has grabbed my attention.
MS
BABA 150+, looking forward and here is whyGoldman Sachs Is Bullish on China’s Stimulus
I have selected BABA and want to consider buy the deep strategy and here is why.
Alibaba’s stock has occasionally been undervalued compared to its peers, offering opportunities for investors seeking growth at a reasonable price.
P/E = 11.6, which is one of my favorites ratios, when Amazons P/E higher 45 atm.
Investing in Alibaba Group can be attractive for several reasons.
First of all its still E-commerce Leadership in China. Alibaba is a dominant player in China’s massive e-commerce market (and not only in China), which has immense growth potential due to increasing internet penetration and consumer spending. Platforms like Taobao, Tmall, and Lazada position Alibaba as a market leader in both domestic and international markets.
Alibaba not just a e-commerce marketplace and Babas Cloud is the largest cloud service provider in China and one of the global leaders, competing with Amazon AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud. The cloud computing segment has been growing rapidly and has significant potential for profitability and scalability.
And the last and the most significant case from BABA - they invest heavily in AI, logistics automation, fintech, and consumer analytics, keeping it at the forefront of technological advancements in its industry.
Meantime geopolitical tensions, especially, U.S.-China trade tensions and potential delisting threats and slower economic growth in China could impact on stock prices.
CHN50 intraday rallies to continue attract sellers?CHN50 - 24h expiry
There is no clear indication that the downward move is coming to an end.
A higher correction is expected.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a sell from current levels.
A move through 13000 will confirm the bearish momentum.
The measured move target is 12750.
We look to Sell at 13200 (stop at 13400)
Our profit targets will be 12800 and 12750
Resistance: 13100 / 13200 / 13300
Support: 13000 / 12900 / 12750
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
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XIAOMI (1810): Another All-Time High Surpassed!A new all-time high has been reached 🎉
XIAOMI has been surging non-stop since August 2024, with our position now up 180% since our entry back in March. We are taking our next profit here and letting the rest run.
Xiaomi experienced significant growth in 2024, bolstered by China’s economic development and government support. The Chinese government implemented subsidies to stimulate demand for electronics, heavily favoring the stock. These policies aimed to strengthen domestic consumption and accelerate technological modernization.
In March 2024, Xiaomi introduced its first EV, the SU7 sedan. By November, the company exceeded its initial targets, raising its annual delivery forecast to 130,000 vehicles.
Technically, it is safe to say that we are trading in a wave 3, but the key question remains: for how long and what price level will it target? Analyzing the chart, it makes the most sense to anticipate a very large and sharp wave 3, with the same dynamics for wave ((3)). While the possibility of even higher surges exists, historical patterns suggest the likelihood of a rounding top formation as multiple waves come to an end.
We don’t believe our entry level will ever be retested, but we remain cautious with new entries for now, closely monitoring the chart for further developments.
China EV Market Weekly Update (W52) In the final week of December, NIO delivered 6,500 units, marking a 20% increase compared to the previous week and 14% YoY growth. For December, NIO's total registrations reached 20,000 units, with the ES6 (EL6 in Europe) and ET5 models dominating sales. Additionally, Onvo, NIO's sub-brand, registered 4,200 units of its L60 SUV (+101% WoW), contributing to a December total of 9,405 units.
Key insights:
Tesla posted 18,600 registrations (+6% WoW). Model Y remains the top seller, but Model 3 is gaining traction.
BYD led the market with 72,100 registrations, though this was down 18% WoW and 6% YoY.
Xpeng and Zeekr hit record numbers, with 10,100 and 8,900 registrations, respectively.
📈 Despite mixed signals across the EV sector, NIO’s growth is a promising indicator of its resilience in a competitive market. The rise in Onvo’s L60 SUV registrations further highlights potential in NIO's multi-brand strategy.
I'm back in the game. I sold my entire position at 7.47 on September 30, and people thought I was crazy. Anyway, I recently bought back around 4.55. This stock is playing yo-yo with our nerves, haha.
Next target? Early March 2025 (Fibonacci time extension) for a gain between +25% and +45%. Good luck to everyone!
sorry for all the drawings, this is my personal chart.
Long TIGR (Maybe Double Up)
NASDAQ:TIGR is a fintech company incorporated in Singapore and headquartered in Beijing. Think HOOD for asian markets, and having direct access to those equities. From the chart you can see they clearly align with the China trade and do get a huge boost if we see China's market pick up.
Current Position:
Average Share Price $5.87 and continuing to buy this up.
Options
$6 12/20/2024
$4 01/17/2024
$5.50 04/17/2025
$5.50 01/16/2026
$5.50 01/15/2027
Still adding. I think $10 is pretty likely even in the short term, but obviously taking some long plays as well, and just picking my spots to grab options when IV is reasonable and I can get some deals. If the China / Asia trade gets some legs, I don't think $20-$25 is out of the question.
My Reasoning
They just did a pretty sizeable offering Oct 23 at $6.25 of 15 million shares, with underwriters getting the opportunity to buy an additional 2.25 million in the 20 days after the offering. (Which they did). This caused approximately 10% dilution to existing share holders. Share price held up pretty well and already trading well above the offering, even while the rest of China continues to downtrend or chop.
2024 Q3
- Revenue: $101 million - record high (44.1% year-over-year increase).
- Net Revenue: $30.84 million - the highest in 3 years (15% year-over-year increase).
- Net Income Attrib. to Ordinary Shareholders: $17.8 million (34.0% year-over-year increase).
- Assets under management: $19.8 billion (115.9% year-over-year increase).
- Funded Accounts: 1,035,000 (19.3% year-over-year increase).
- Total Accounts: 2,370,000 (10.2% year-over-year increase).
- Trading Volume: $163 billion, (103.1% year-over-year increase).
- Net Profit Margin: 17.6% (-1.3% year-over-year decrease).
All while the Asia trade has been pretty much a no go.
In January 2024 they were issued a Type 1 license (Allowing crypto on the platform) and in July 2024 they got Type 9 license (Allowing client asset management services). Two other brokerages have also been given Type 1 licenses in 2024 FUTU and HKVAX (HKVAX also got type 7 for automated trading).
FUTU is a significant competitor with 12x the market cap of TIGR, 2x the assets under management (grew 40% year-over-year), and 4x the revenue (grew 29% year-over-year), and greater brand recognition. But with 12x the market cap and lower growth numbers, TIGR seems like the better play for now, although I might add some FUTU as well.
TIGR has not released specific geographic breakdowns but they have mentioned 75% of funded accounts are outside of mainland China (Q1 2024). Singapore, New Zealand, Australia, United States all mentioned as growth stories.
They have a sizeable user base now, and growing rapidly. If you are long enough term you also just have the cultural tides in your favor as Asia, India are seeing retail investor participation increase rapidly.
I look at this and see a double up just based on the companies growth story while Asia trade has been less than ideal . If we get an actual China pump 2.5x, 3x not out of the question.
Risks
I mean China right, TIGR is incorporated in Singapore which is slightly better and analysis would lead me to believe that a majority of their assets under management are in Singapore but we all know China could yank a license, attack Taiwan, or do some other bull and send the stock tumbling. It's a foreign company, the reporting requirements are different, more opaque, and harder to analyze. Other risks include just the history of the company, offerings are not super rare occurrences and the balance sheet historically is not pretty. This was not a well oiled machine from the beginning. Still a chance management blows it, you also have real competition with FUTU.
However, you can't just luck into the numbers above so things are changing. IMHO.