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Quantum's KWEB Trading Guide 4/13/25Analysis: Post-Close Options Activity (April 11): Data: System reports 469.32K contracts traded on April 11, with puts at 10.99% (calls ~89%). High call volume at $31/$32 strikes suggests bullish bets. Interpretation: Call-heavy flow indicates retail/institutional optimism, likely targeting a sweep above $31.35 (weekly high). Potential for a liquidity sweep trapping longs, aligning with ICT/SMT reversal. RSI (14) Level and Trend: Estimate: Daily RSI ~55 (neutral-bullish), based on April 11 close ($30.52, +2.97% from $29.62). Uptrend from April 8 low ($27.95) but below March 17 peak ($38.401) avoids overbought. Interpretation: RSI supports bullish setups (above 50), with room for upside before resistance (~70). A sweep to $31.50 could push RSI higher, signaling OTE retracement. Anonymized X Post Insights (April 11–13): Summary: Posts highlight Chinese tech optimism (e.g., DeepSeek AI, consumer spending), tempered by tariff fears (Trump’s 125% threats). Some speculate on KWEB breaking $31, others note volatility risks. Interpretation: Mixed sentiment leans bullish, with chatter about AI and stimulus driving buy-side interest. Tariff uncertainty suggests potential sell-side sweeps if news escalates. Potential Reversals/Catalysts: Liquidity Sweeps: Call-heavy options and X speculation point to a buy-side sweep above $31.35 (W-High), trapping retail longs before an OTE reversal to $30.00 (HVN). Institutional Positioning: High call OI suggests dealers hedging bullish bets, but tariff risks could trigger smart money to fade retail. Catalysts: Retail Sales (April 15) or tariff relief news could spike KWEB, while escalation could drive sell-side volatility. Why: Sentiment aligns with ICT/SMT, where bullish retail chatter sets up sweeps, and smart money reverses at OTE. Neutral-bullish RSI and call volume support a setup. Action: Log sentiment as neutral-bullish, expect sweep above $31 or drop to $29 on tariff news. Highlight for video: “KWEB’s call-heavy buzz could trap retail—watch for a smart money reversal.” Tariff Impact Assessment: Severe Exposure: KWEB’s holdings (e.g., PDD, JD.com, Tencent) rely on China’s internet economy, with significant supply chain and consumer exposure to U.S.-China trade. Tariffs (e.g., 125% proposed) raise costs for e-commerce and tech exports, hurting revenues. Example: PDD (Temu) faces U.S. import duties, squeezing margins; JD.com’s logistics chain is tariff-sensitive. Current Policy (April 13): Context: Trump’s April 10 statement escalates tariffs to 125% on Chinese goods, with no relief confirmed by April 13. Web reports (Reuters, April 4) note market volatility from tariff fears, impacting KWEB’s April 8 low ($27.95). Impact: Severe, as KWEB’s ETF structure amplifies holdings’ tariff pain (e.g., Alibaba, Tencent ADRs). Sentiment sours on escalation, driving sell-side sweeps. Tariff Relief Potential: Scenario: A 90-day pause or negotiation (rumored on X, inconclusive) could lift KWEB +3–5% ($31.50–$32.00), as seen in past relief rallies (e.g., February 2025, +1.6% on pause news). Fundamentals: Relief boosts consumer spending on KWEB’s holdings, supporting bullish MSS. Without relief, bearish pressure persists. AMT Tie-In: Tariff news creates imbalances (LVN breaks), with price seeking HVNs (e.g., $30.00) post-volatility. Why: Severe tariff exposure makes KWEB sensitive to trade news, fueling sweeps (buy-side on relief, sell-side on escalation), per ICT/SMT. Action: Rate tariff impact severe, monitor April 14 for negotiation updates. Video: “Tariffs could sink KWEB, but relief might spark a sweep to $32—stay sharp.” News/Catalysts Current (April 11, 2025) Closing Price: System Data: KWEB closed at $30.52 (currentPrice), +2.97% from prevDayClose ($29.62). Verification: Matches April 11 high ($30.63), low ($29.41), open ($30.12). Drivers: Positive: Call-heavy options (89% calls) and AI buzz (DeepSeek, X posts) drove the rally. Web reports note Chinese tech resilience despite tariffs. Negative: Tariff fears capped gains, with X posts citing Trump’s 125% threat as a drag. Sector Trends: China ETFs rose (e.g., MCHI +2.1%, April 11), supporting KWEB’s move. Why: Options flow and AI speculation fueled bullish momentum, but tariffs restrained breakout above $31. Action: Highlight $30.52 close, +2.97%, driven by calls and AI. Video: “KWEB jumped 3% on AI hype, but tariffs loom large.” Upcoming (Week of April 14–18) Events: April 15, Retail Sales (8:30 AM): Measures U.S. consumer spending, impacting KWEB’s e-commerce holdings (PDD, JD.com). April 16–18, Tariff Talks: Potential U.S.-China negotiations, per X chatter (inconclusive). Ongoing, China Stimulus: Rumored fiscal measures could lift Chinese tech, no date confirmed. Predictions: Bullish (+3%, ~$31.50): Strong Retail Sales (+0.5% MoM) or stimulus news boosts e-commerce, sweeping buy-side liquidity ($31.35). Bearish (-3%, ~$29.50): Weak Retail Sales (-0.2% MoM) or tariff escalation triggers sell-side sweep ($29.41). Neutral (±1%, $30.20–$30.80): Mixed data or no tariff news keeps KWEB near $30.00 (HVN). Why: Catalysts drive displacement (sweeps to OHLC/LVNs), setting up OTE entries, per AMT/ICT. Action: Set alerts for Retail Sales (April 15), monitor X for tariff updates. Video: “Retail Sales could push KWEB to $32 or drop it to $29—big week ahead.” Technical Setup Multi-Timeframe Analysis (Adjusted to April 11 Close, $30.52) Weekly Chart HVN (High Volume Node): Level: $30.00 (POC, near W-Open $29.59, D-Close $30.52). Role: Support, price consolidated March 24–April 11 ($29–$31). Stance: Bullish (price above HVN, defending $30.00). LVN (Low Volume Node): Level: $31.50 (near W-High $31.35, April 4). Role: Fast-move zone, price dropped post-$31.35 (April 4–8). Stance: Neutral (price below LVN, potential sweep target). EMA Trend: Status: 8-week ($31.50) < 13-week ($32.00) < 48-week ($33.50), downtrend but flattening. Stance: Neutral (price below EMAs, but $30.52 tests 8-week). RSI (14): Level: ~55 (neutral-bullish, up from 45 at $27.95, April 8). Stance: Bullish (>50, room to 70). MACD: Status: Above signal, nearing zero (bullish crossover April 10). Stance: Bullish (gaining momentum). Bollinger Bands: Status: Price at midline ($30.50), bands narrowing. Stance: Neutral (breakout pending). Donchian Channels: Status: Above midline ($29.65, W-Low to W-High). Stance: Bullish (breakout potential). Williams %R: Level: ~-40 (neutral, not overbought). Stance: Bullish (>-50, rising). ADR (Average Daily Range): Status: Expanding (~3%, $0.90/day). Stance: Bullish (volatility supports moves). VWAP: Status: Above VWAP (~$30.20, April 11). Stance: Bullish (buyers control). ICT/SMC: MSS: Bearish (lower highs from $38.401, March 17, but higher low $27.95, April 8, signals potential shift). Trend: Neutral (consolidation $29–$31, testing W-High $31.35). Summary: Neutral-bullish, price at HVN ($30.00) with LVN ($31.50) as sweep target. Indicators favor upside, but MSS needs confirmation. 1-Hour Chart Support/Resistance: Support: $29.41 (D-Low, April 11), aligns with W-Open ($29.59), HVN ($30.00). Resistance: $30.63 (D-High, April 11), near LVN ($31.50), W-High ($31.35). Stance: Bullish (price above support, testing resistance). RSI (14): Level: ~60 (bullish, rising from 50 at $29.41). Stance: Bullish (>50, not overbought). MACD: Status: Above signal, positive histogram. Stance: Bullish (momentum building). Bollinger Bands: Status: Price near upper band ($30.60). Stance: Bullish (breakout potential). Donchian Channels: Status: Above midline ($30.02). Stance: Bullish (trend strength). Williams %R: Level: ~-30 (bullish, not overbought). Stance: Bullish (>-50). VWAP: Status: Above VWAP (~$30.30, intraday April 11). Stance: Bullish (buyers dominate). ICT/SMC: Buy-Side Liquidity: Above $30.63 (D-High), $31.35 (W-High), LVN ($31.50). Retail stops cluster here. Sell-Side Liquidity: Below $29.41 (D-Low), $27.95 (W-Low/M-Low). OB: Bullish OB at $29.80–$30.00 (April 10 consolidation, demand zone, near HVN $30.00). FVG: Bullish FVG at $30.00–$30.20 (April 11 gap, unfilled, aligns with D-Open $30.12). OTE: Fib 61.8%–78.6% from $29.41 (low) to $30.63 (high) = $30.05–$30.15 (overlaps OB/FVG/HVN). Displacement: Potential impulsive move to $31.50 (LVN) or $29.00 (below D-Low) on Retail Sales or tariff news. Summary: Bullish bias, with OTE ($30.05–$30.15) as entry zone post-sweep, supported by OB/FVG/HVN. 10-Minute Chart Closing Move (April 11): Status: Rallied to $30.52, closed near high ($30.63), strong volume. Stance: Bullish (buyers pushed close). EMA Direction: Status: 8-EMA ($30.45) > 13-EMA ($30.40) > 48-EMA ($30.30), uptrend. Stance: Bullish (EMAs rising). RSI (14): Level: ~65 (bullish, cooling from 70). Stance: Bullish (>50, not overbought). MACD: Status: Above zero, bullish crossover. Stance: Bullish (momentum intact). VWAP: Status: Above VWAP (~$30.40, late April 11). Stance: Bullish (buyers control). ICT/SMC: Liquidity Sweep: Wick to $30.63 (8:50 AM, April 11) tested buy-side, no clear rejection yet. Retracement: Potential retrace to $30.05–$30.15 (OTE) if sweep completes (e.g., April 14, 8:00 AM). Entry Signal: Pin bar or engulfing at OTE (e.g., $30.10, 10-minute candle). Summary: Bullish, awaiting sweep above $30.63 or $31.35, retrace to OTE for entry. Options Data Analysis: GEX (Gamma Exposure): Status: Positive GEX at $31 strike (high call OI), neutral at $30. Impact: Dealers buy stock to hedge calls, supporting $31 pin or slight lift to $31.50. Explanation: Positive GEX stabilizes price near high OI strikes, aligning with LVN ($31.50) sweep. Stance: Neutral-bullish (pinning likely, breakout possible). DEX (Delta Exposure): Status: High call delta (+0.3, 89% call volume). Impact: Bullish pressure, as dealers hedge calls by buying KWEB. Explanation: Call-heavy delta fuels upside momentum, supporting buy-side sweep. Stance: Bullish. IV (Implied Volatility): Status: Moderate (~25%, vs. 20–35% norm for KWEB). Impact: Steady swings ($0.50–$1.00/day), good for ATM/OTM calls. Explanation: Moderate IV balances premium cost and volatility, ideal for OTE entries. Stance: Bullish (volatility supports options). OI (Open Interest): Status: Call-heavy (65% calls at $31, 20% at $32, 15% puts at $30). Impact: Momentum toward $31–$32, potential pin at $31 (high OI). Explanation: High call OI marks targets (W-High $31.35, LVN $31.50), puts at $30 guard HVN. Stance: Bullish (calls drive upside). Cem Karsan’s Application and Weekly Trading Breakdown: Gamma: High at $31 (pinning risk), low at $32 (breakout potential). Vanna: Rising IV (25% to 30% on Retail Sales) lifts calls, dealers buy KWEB, pushing to $31.50. Charm: Near OPEX (April 18), $31 calls hold delta if ITM, spiking volatility April 17–18. Volatility Skew: Call skew (higher IV for $32 vs. $30) favors upside breakouts. Weekly OI (Exp. April 18): 65% calls at $31, 20% at $32. Pinning likely at $31 unless Retail Sales sparks breakout to $32. Options Strategy: Trade: Buy $31 calls at OTE ($30.10, April 14, 8:50 AM), premium ~$0.50. Exit: $31.50 (W-High/LVN, premium ~$0.90), profit $0.40. Stop: Below OB ($29.80, premium ~$0.20), risk $0.30. R:R: 1.33:1 (adjust to 2:1 with partial exit). ICT/SMC Tie-In: Enter post-sweep ($31.35), retrace to OTE ($30.10), target $31.50. Vanna: Status: IV rise (25% to 30%) amplifies calls, dealers buy KWEB. Impact: Bullish lift to $31–$31.50, aligns with LVN sweep. Explanation: Vanna boosts delta near high OI, supporting OTE reversal. Charm: Status: OPEX (April 18) nears, $31 calls gain delta if KWEB hits $31. Impact: Volatility spikes April 17–18, favors quick OTE trades. Explanation: Charm accelerates delta, amplifying sweep-to-OTE moves. Timeframe Analysis: Weekly (Exp. April 18): OI: 65% calls ($31), 20% ($32), 15% puts ($30). IV: Moderate (25%), rising on catalysts. Stance: Bullish (calls dominate, breakout risk). Monthly (Exp. May 2): OI: Balanced (50% calls $32, 50% puts $29). IV: Stable (~24%). Stance: Neutral (consolidation likely). 3-Month (Exp. July 7): OI: Call skew ($33–$35, 60% calls). IV: Low (~22%). Stance: Bullish (long-term upside). Directional Bias: Synthesis: Positive GEX ($31 pin), high call DEX (+0.3), moderate IV (25%), call-heavy OI (65% at $31), vanna (IV lift), charm (OPEX volatility), and ICT/SMC (buy-side sweep to $31.35, OTE at $30.10) suggest a bullish trend for April 14, with potential retracement post-sweep. Why: Options data aligns with ICT/SMT (call OI = buy-side liquidity, OTE = dealer hedging zone), per AMT (LVN sweep, HVN reversal). Action: Focus on $31 calls, highlight pinning vs. breakout. Video: “KWEB’s $31 call wall could pin or pop—perfect for an OTE play.” Sympathy Plays Correlated Assets: MCHI (iShares MSCI China ETF): Tracks broader Chinese equities, rises ~2–3% if KWEB rallies (e.g., $31.50), due to shared holdings (Alibaba, Tencent). BABA (Alibaba ADR): KWEB’s top holding, moves +3–4% on KWEB’s sweep to $31.35, driven by e-commerce/AI overlap. Opposite Mover: GLD (SPDR Gold ETF): Risk-off asset, fades ~1–2% if KWEB rallies (risk-on), as investors shift from safe havens to tech. Why: Sympathy plays confirm sector momentum (Chinese tech), while GLD hedges tariff fears, per ICT/SMT sentiment. Action: Monitor MCHI/BABA for confirmation, GLD for divergence. Video: “If KWEB pops, MCHI and BABA follow—watch gold for the flip side.” Sector Positioning with RRG Sector: Technology – Emerging Markets (China Internet). RRG Position: Improving (vs. MCHI ETF). Rationale: KWEB’s April 11 rally (+2.97%) outpaces MCHI (+2.1%), with RSI (~55) and call OI signaling strength. Tariff fears weaken absolute gains, but relative momentum grows. Tie-In: Improving quadrant supports bullish MSS, OTE entries at HVN ($30.00). Why: RRG aligns with sentiment (call-heavy) and technicals (above HVN), per AMT value area. Action: Highlight Improving RRG for video: “KWEB’s gaining steam in China tech—prime for a sweep setup.” Targets Bullish: Target: +3.5% to $31.60. Levels: W-High ($31.35), LVN ($31.50), next resistance ($32.00). Rationale: Buy-side sweep to $31.35 (W-High), breakout to LVN on Retail Sales or tariff relief, per ICT/SMC. Bearish: Target: -3.2% to $29.55. Levels: D-Low ($29.41), below W-Open ($29.59), HVN ($29.50). Rationale: Sell-side sweep below $29.41 on weak Retail Sales or tariff escalation, retracing to HVN, per AMT. Why: Targets tie to OHLC (W-High, D-Low), HVNs/LVNs, and catalysts, ensuring ICT/SMC alignment (liquidity to OTE).
AMEX:KWEB
by QuantumEdgeAnalytics
Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) Reports Strong Q125 ResultsMorgan Stanley (NYSE: NYSE:MS ) Beats Q1 estimates with record Equity Trading Revenue. The bank posted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.60, beating analyst expectations of $2.18. Revenue reached a record $17.74 billion, topping forecasts of $16.44 billion. The bank's equity trading revenue soared 45% year-over-year. It reached a new high of $4.13 billion as growth came across business lines and regions. Asia showed particularly strong performance. Prime brokerage and derivatives led gains, fueled by high client activity in volatile markets. Morgan Stanley shares dropped 1% after the earnings release. However, the stock remains up over 20% in the past year. Volatility in global markets helped trading desks outperform. Technical Analysis Morgan Stanley bounced sharply from the $95 support zone. Buyers stepped in near the previous breakout level. Volume increased and confirmed renewed interest. This was seen as Trump paused tariffs for the next 90 days as well. Current price action suggests a recovery trend. The RSI stands at 39, hinting at oversold conditions. A potential path points to $142.03, which acts as the immediate resistance level. If the price breaks $113 cleanly, momentum could carry it to $130 and beyond. If it fails, it is most likely to retest $95 support level. A strong break above recent highs would confirm bullish continuation. For now, Watch out the $113 and $142 levels closely.
NYSE:MSLong
by DEXWireNews
SPY Analysis: Navigating Tariff-Induced VolatilityContinuing from my last update, market volatility remains high due to Trump's unpredictable policy decisions. After initially folding and offering economic relief, Trump pivoted sharply with a sudden 145% tariff announcement. Today, China countered strongly with a 125% tariff. These escalating tariff exchanges continue to create significant uncertainty and market fluctuations, highlighting the critical need for careful analysis and precise trade management. Technical Breakdown (4-Hour Chart) Current Price Zone: Around $528.45 Key Resistance Levels: - Immediate Resistance: $536.50 (L.Vol ST 1b) - Critical Resistance: $549.33 - $549.60 (L.Vol ST 2b) - Major Resistance Zone (Liberation Day): Approximately $562.16 Support Levels: - Initial Support: $523.67 (Best Price Short) - Secondary Support: $510.84 (L.Vol ST 1a) - Important Lower Support: $498.01 (L.Vol ST 2a) - Strong Support Level (Trump Folded area): ~$485.18 Trading Scenarios Bullish Scenario (Potential Tariff Tension Relief): - Entry Trigger: Confirmed breakout and sustained hold above resistance at $536.50. Profit Targets: - Target 1: $549.33 (next strong resistance level) - Target 2: $562.16 (major resistance) - Stop Loss: Below immediate support at $523.67, carefully managing downside risk. Bearish Scenario (Ongoing Tariff Escalation or Increased Market Fear): Entry Trigger: Inability to reclaim $536.50, or a decisive breakdown below support at $523.67. Profit Targets: - Target 1: $510.84 (nearest significant support) - Target 2: $498.01 (secondary critical support) - Target 3: $485.18 (robust support area) - Stop Loss: Above resistance at $536.50 to protect against potential reversals. Thought Process & Final Thoughts The SPY currently trades within clearly defined resistance and support bands, heavily influenced by unpredictable tariff-driven headlines. Trump's volatile policy shifts and China's assertive retaliations amplify short-term market risks. Maintain flexible trading strategies, adhere strictly to established levels, and practice disciplined risk management. Continuous monitoring and swift response to evolving market sentiment will be essential for navigating this challenging environment effectively.
AMEX:SPY
by HispanicHedge
1
$CNIRYY -China's CPI (March/2025)ECONOMICS:CNIRYY March/2025 source: National Bureau of Statistics of China - China's consumer prices fell by 0.1% year-on-year in March 2025, missing market expectations of a 0.1% increase and marking the second consecutive month of drop, as the ongoing trade dispute with the U.S. threatens to exert further downward pressure on prices. Still, the latest drop was significantly milder than February’s 0.7% fall, supported by a smaller decline in food prices as pork prices accelerated and fresh fruit costs rebounded. Meanwhile, non-food prices rose by 0.2%, reversing a slight dip of 0.1% in February, driven by increases in housing (0.1% vs 0.1%), healthcare (0.1% vs 0.2%), and education (0.8% vs -0.5%), despite a continued decline in transport costs (-2.6% vs -2.5%). Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, rose 0.5% in March, rebounding from a 0.1% decrease in February. On a monthly basis, the CPI declined by 0.4%, a steeper fall than a 0.2% drop in February, marking the second straight month of contraction.
ECONOMICS:CNIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
US-China Trade War: Impacts on Financial Markets The trade war between the United States and China has reached unprecedented levels, with the imposition of reciprocal tariffs that are upsetting the global economic balance. China has recently increased tariffs on American products up to 50%, while President Trump has temporarily suspended tariffs for three months, trying to negotiate with other nations. This scenario is generating strong volatility in the financial markets and profoundly affecting the Forex market. Analysis of the Impacts on Financial Markets Stock Markets: The main world stock exchanges are recording significant fluctuations. Asian and European indices have suffered drastic drops, reflecting investor uncertainty. Raw Materials: The price of oil and precious metals shows instability, with oscillations that reflect global nervousness. Gold, considered a safe haven, is gaining ground, exceeding the threshold of 3,000 dollars. Economic Sectors: Sectors such as technology and agriculture are particularly hard hit, with export restrictions and rising production costs. Impact on Forex The trade war is directly impacting the currency market: US Dollar (USD): The dollar is coming under pressure due to economic uncertainty and recession fears in the United States. The Federal Reserve may be forced to cut interest rates further. Chinese Yuan (CNY): The yuan is under pressure, with the risk of lower exports to the US and a slowdown in Chinese economic growth. Safe Haven Currencies: The Swiss Franc (CHF) and the Japanese Yen (JPY) are gaining ground, as investors seek stability amid global volatility. Commodity Currencies: The Australian Dollar (AUD) and the Canadian Dollar (CAD) could be negatively impacted by fluctuations in international trade. Forex Strategies for Traders In a context of high volatility, traders must adopt targeted strategies: Constant Monitoring: Follow the developments of the trade war and the decisions of central banks. Diversification: Invest in safe haven currencies to reduce risk. Technical Analysis: Use analysis tools to identify trading opportunities based on market movements. Risk Management: Set stop-loss and take-profit to protect capital. This situation requires attention and flexibility from traders, who must adapt their strategies to the new market dynamics. If you need further insights or a specific analysis on a currency, I am here to help!
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
US-China Rift: India's Golden Hour?Heightened trade tensions between the United States and China, characterized by substantial US tariffs on Chinese goods, inadvertently create a favorable environment for India. The significant difference in tariff rates—considerably lower for Indian imports than Chinese ones—positions India as an attractive alternative manufacturing base for corporations seeking to mitigate costs and geopolitical risks when supplying the US market. This tariff advantage presents a unique strategic opening for the Indian economy. Evidence of this shift is already apparent, with major players like Apple reportedly exploring increased iPhone imports from India and even accelerating shipments ahead of tariff deadlines. This trend extends beyond Apple, as other global electronics manufacturers, including Samsung and potentially even some Chinese firms, evaluate shifting production or export routes through India. Such moves stand to significantly bolster India's "Make in India" initiative and enhance its role within global electronics value chains. The potential influx of manufacturing activity, investment, and exports translates into substantial tailwinds for India's benchmark Nifty 50 index. Increased economic growth, higher corporate earnings for constituent companies (especially in manufacturing and logistics), greater foreign investment, and positive market sentiment are all likely outcomes. However, realizing this potential requires India to address persistent challenges related to infrastructure, policy stability, and ease of doing business, while also navigating competition from other low-tariff nations and seeking favorable terms in ongoing trade negotiations with the US.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by UDIS_View
We’ve seen a solid correction in NVDA - Bullish?We’ve seen a solid correction in NVDA following its rally since early 2024. The stock has broken through key levels and managed to hold within the resistance zone between $80 and $90. We will most likely enter a sideways movement until the situation regarding tariffs becomes clearer. This could extend into June, after which we might expect an upward move toward the $132.95 zone. By early 2026, we are likely to see a new all-time high, especially if the trade tensions and tariffs between China and the US are resolved and overall uncertainty decreases.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by larsnicog
USDCNH Tests Key Pattern Resistance on PBOC’s Loose Yuan FixThe trade war between China and the U.S. is escalating, and the Chinese yuan is starting to feel the pressure. After the U.S. raised tariffs to a total of 54%, China responded with a 34% increase of its own. Now, Trump has threatened an additional 50% tariff hike if China doesn’t withdraw its retaliation. It appears unlikely that either side will back down at this stage, and the trade war is set to intensify further. In addition to retaliating, China is also preparing to defend its economy. According to several news reports, Beijing is planning to frontload stimulus measures aimed at boosting domestic consumption, subsidizing exporters to cushion the blow from reduced U.S. trade, and supporting stock market stability. The People’s Bank of China will likely play a central role in this effort, using tools such as rate adjustments and daily yuan fixings. The latest yuan fixing came in above 7.20, the highest level since 2023. With this looser fixing and ongoing trade war pressure, USDCNH is pushing higher. The ascending triangle formation which typically breaks to the upside is also supporting bearish bets on the yuan. If China proceeds with a small and controlled devaluation, as many expect, a breakout from this triangle pattern is likely. The potential target for the breakout could align with one of the parallel lines of the lower boundary of the formation, which are currently around 7.61 and 7.75, and gradually rising. With time, a move toward 7.80 is well within reach by the end of the year.
Long
by ftdsystem
Apple Inc. (NYSE:$ AAPL)Drops $300B+ in Tariff- Fueled Sell-OffApple Inc. (NYSE:$ AAPL) faced a massive sell-off on Thursday, April 4th 2025, with its stock closing at $188.38, down $14.81 (7.29%). This marked Apple’s worst trading day since March 2020. The steep drop came after former President Donald Trump announced a new set of tariffs targeting 185 countries, including major U.S. trading partners. As a result, Apple’s market capitalization fell by more than $310 billion in a single day. These newly imposed tariffs, effective April 9th, include a 10% blanket duty on all imports, with higher rates applied to specific countries. China, Apple’s primary manufacturing hub, will face a combined 54% tariff—34% newly imposed, added to an existing 20% rate. Other affected regions include the European Union (20%), Vietnam (46%), Taiwan (32%), and India (26%). Analysts consider Apple especially vulnerable to these policies due to its heavy reliance on overseas production, especially in China, where nearly 85% of iPhones are manufactured. According to Dan Ives of Wedbush, future exemptions to these tariffs may depend on Apple’s efforts to localize its operations within the U.S., a move hinted at by the company earlier this year. However, no details have been confirmed regarding whether Apple’s U.S. expansion plans will qualify for tariff relief. The timing of the policy combined with Apple’s exposure to international supply chains, led to a bear shift in market. Technical Analysis: Apple Breaks Below Key $197 Support Apple’s price action shows an impulsive breakdown below the key $197 strong support level. The price is currently trading around $188, trading towards next support at $167 as the immediate support. A drop below $167 could push the stock lower to a long-term support around $125, which was lastly retested in Dec 2022. On the upside, any recovery would first need to reclaim the broken support at $197, which now acts as resistance. The all-time high around $260 remains far away from reach unless the overall stock market sentiment improves. Looking ahead, the chart outlines two likely scenarios. In the bullish case, Apple may find support around $167, bounce back and attempt to break above $197, possibly re-establishing it as a support zone. In the bearish case, failure to hold $167 could push the stock lower to test $125, and if that level breaks, the price may continue downward. The current market outlook suggests a wait-and-see approach, to what happens at key level, as both macroeconomic news and technical levels continue to drive Apple stock lower.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by DEXWireNews
"CHINA 50" Index CFD Market Heist Plan (Scalping/Day Trade)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑💰✈️ Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the "CHINA 50" Index CFD Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the high-risk Green Zone. Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸Book Profits Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : "The vault is wide open! Swipe the Bearish loot at any price - the heist is on! however I advise to Place sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most nearest or swing, low or high level. Stop Loss 🛑: (13400) Thief SL placed at the nearest / swing high level Using the 8H timeframe swing / day trade basis. SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take. Target 🎯: 12950 (or) Escape Before the Target 🧲Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Short side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. "CHINA 50" Index CFD Market Heist Plan (Swing/Day) is currently experiencing a bearishness,., driven by several key factors. 📰🗞️Get & Read the Fundamental, Macro Economics, COT Report, Geopolitical and News Analysis, Sentimental Outlook, Intermarket Analysis, Index-Specific Analysis, Positioning and future trend targets... go ahead to check 👉👉👉🔗 ⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits 💖Supporting our robbery plan 💥Hit the Boost Button💥 will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱‍👤🤗🤩
FPMARKETS:CHINA50Short
by Thief_Trader
1
China: 34% Tariffs Against US, Impact on Forex Market Hello, I am Forex Trader Andrea Russo and today I want to talk to you about China's response to US Tariffs. China's recent decision to impose 34% counter-tariffs on US products represents a significant development in trade tensions between the world's two largest economies. This move, which will take effect on April 10, is a direct response to the 10% tariffs imposed by the United States. The announcement has already had repercussions on global markets, with stocks recording sharp declines. In this article, we will analyze the motivations behind this decision, its economic implications and the impact on the Forex market. Motivations Behind the Counter-Tariffs China's decision to impose counter-tariffs is a strategic response to the aggressive trade policies of the United States. The 10% tariffs imposed by the US are aimed at correcting what is perceived as an unfair trade deficit and protecting domestic industries. However, China sees these tariffs as a threat to its economic growth and the stability of its exports. The 34% counter-tariffs are therefore an attempt to rebalance the trade balance and put pressure on the United States to review its policies. Global Economic Implications The imposition of counter-tariffs has economic implications that go far beyond the two nations involved. Trade tensions can trigger a series of chain reactions that affect the global economy in various ways: Increased Production Costs: Companies that rely on imports of raw materials and components from the United States will see an increase in production costs, which could be passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices. Slower Economic Growth: Trade tensions can lead to a slowdown in global economic growth, as companies may reduce investment due to economic uncertainty. Inflation: Rising prices of imported goods can contribute to inflation, reducing the purchasing power of consumers and increasing costs for businesses. Forex Market Impact The Forex market, known for its sensitivity to geopolitical and economic events, is not immune to the effects of the trade tensions between China and the United States. Here are some of the main impacts: US Dollar Volatility: The increase in tariffs could weaken the US dollar, as trade tensions tend to reduce investor confidence. Demand for US goods could decrease, negatively impacting the value of the dollar. Strengthening of the Chinese Yuan: China could see a strengthening of the yuan, as its economy could be perceived as more stable than that of the United States in this context of trade tensions. Federal Reserve Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve could be forced to review its monetary policy, with possible interest rate cuts to mitigate the economic impact of the tariffs. This could further impact the Forex market, increasing volatility. Conclusion China's decision to impose counter-tariffs of 34% on US products represents a significant development in the trade tensions between the world's two largest economies. The economic implications of this move are vast and complex, affecting not only national economies but also the global Forex market. Investors and analysts will need to monitor these developments closely to fully understand their implications and adjust their strategies accordingly.
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
ChinaH Index – Mid-Term Technical OutlookThe ChinaH Index is currently trading at $8,390, after recently rejecting the key resistance level of $9,200, a historically significant zone last tested in 2021. Despite this rejection, the index remains well-positioned within a strong and intact bullish channel, signaling long-term upward momentum. Current Setup: We are now observing a short-term relief bounce from $8,390, with potential to retest the $8,700 area. This move is part of a broader technical structure that suggests a healthy pullback phase before resuming long-term growth. Pullback Scenario: Following the potential retest of $8,700, the index may enter a correction phase, targeting $7,600 as a core support level—this zone previously acted as resistance in 2022 and is likely to serve as strong structural support heading into mid-2025. Before reaching $7,600, the first interim support sits at $8,200, a level that previously served as support in 2020 and triggered the recent bounce. If $8,200 fails to hold during the retracement, a deeper correction toward $7,600 would allow for stronger consolidation and improved structural health within the overall bullish channel. Two Potential Bullish Scenarios After Pullback: Continuation within the Current Bullish Channel: A bounce from $7,600 would resume upward momentum. Primary upside target: $9,700 – a key multi-year resistance zone from 2017–2020. A clean breakout above $9,700 would confirm a long-term bullish breakout and shift market sentiment decisively. Formation of a New Bullish Channel: In the event of prolonged consolidation, price could range between $7,100–$8,700 from September to December 2025. A breakout in January 2026 would confirm a new ascending structure, offering a refreshed bullish path with long-term upside. Key Levels to Watch: Resistance: $8,700 → $9,200 → $9,700 (Major Breakout Zone) Support: $8,200 → $7,600 → $7,100 (Range Floor if prolonged consolidation) Summary: While short-term pullbacks may test market resilience, the underlying bullish structure remains intact. A correction to $7,600 could act as a launchpad for the next major leg higher. Whether through continuation in the current channel or the formation of a new one, the ChinaH Index presents multiple bullish pathways, with $9,700 being the key level that could signal a long-term shift in trend. Patience and disciplined positioning in the upcoming months will be crucial as we watch for confirmation of the next directional move.
FUSIONMARKETS:CHINAHShort
by QuantumFusionWave
2
Tencent Holdings LtdIs Tencent Stock a Buy Now? Tencent posted its third quarter earnings report on Nov. 16. The Chinese tech giant's revenue fell 2% year over year to 140.1 billion yuan ($19.8 billion), which represented its second consecutive quarter of declining revenue since its IPO in 2004. Its net profit rose 1% to 39.9 billion yuan ($5.6 billion). On an adjusted basis, which excludes its investments and other one-time items, its net profit grew 2% to 32.3 billion yuan ($4.5 billion). Those growth rates seem anemic, but Tencent's stock had already been cut in half over the past two years amid concerns about China's tightening regulations, slowing economic growth, and COVID19 lockdowns. So is it the right time to take the contrarian view and buy Tencent as a turnaround play? Let's review its core businesses and valuations to decide. Tencent generated 31% of its third quarter revenue from its video game business. Domestic games, which include its blockbuster game Honor of Kings, accounted for 73% of that total. The remaining 27% came from overseas hits like League of Legends, Valorant, and PUBG Mobile.Its domestic gaming revenue fell 7% year over year, representing its third consecutive quarter of shrinking revenue, as it grappled with tighter playtime restrictions for minors in China over the past year. Those restrictions also coincided with a temporary suspension on new video game approvals in China, which started last July and ended this April.Its international gaming revenue rose 3% year over year, accelerating from its 1% decline in the second quarter, as new games like Tower of Fantasy and Goddess of Victory: Nikke attracted new players. Unfortunately, its overseas growth still couldn't offset its declining domestic revenue. As a result, Tencent's total VAS (value-added service) revenue which includes its gaming divisions, social media platforms, and streaming media subscriptions -- declined by 3% in the third quarter but still accounted for more than half of its top line. This core business might gradually stabilize as Tencent expands its international gaming business, but it will likely remain under intense pressure as long as the Chinese government continues to scrutinize the gaming industry. 200$ was one of the biggest support and great opportunity to buying the dip. 300-320$ is a big resistance level for tencent and if bulls win that battle then 350$ is next but can we back 250 or even 200$ again? YES
HKEX:700
by moonypto
11
$BABA on its way to $120s into AprilI would honestly be surprised if it doesnt gap down this Monday before the open. The weekly imo, looks like a mess atm and could gap into $120s easy. If it doesn't, I would expect some consolidation for a fall into the First week of April. We're right at the golden pocket retrace at the .618, very common retracement level, if we look at Fibs with a bearish perspective and measure a retrace back to the lower golden pocket at 1.61 fib from highs, $112.30 would be my ultimate target if we can break $126. $126 opens the flood gates to our ultimate target at $112.
NYSE:BABAShort
by TazmanianTrader
CN50 to find sellers at previous support?CHN50 - 24h expiry Price action looks to be forming a top. There is no clear indication that the downward move is coming to an end. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a sell from current levels. A move through 13500 will confirm the bearish momentum. The measured move target is 13350. We look to Sell at 13600 (stop at 13700) Our profit targets will be 13400 and 13250 Resistance: 13600 / 13650 / 13700 Support: 13500 / 13400 / 13350 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:CN50USDShort
by OANDA
1
Bullish Play on (BABA) Ahead of Chinese Economic Data & Alibaba (BABA) is forming a triple top pattern near the $142-$145 resistance zone ahead of key economic data releases and potential positive stimulus measures from the Chinese Congress meeting. While a triple top is traditionally seen as a bearish formation, a breakout above resistance could signal strong bullish momentum, fueled by market optimism regarding Chinese economic support and potential tariff relief. Trade Setup: Long Position on BABA 📈 Entry Point: Breakout confirmation above $145 (previous resistance). If momentum is strong, consider scaling in at $143-$144 for an early entry. 🎯 Target Price: First Target: $155 (short-term resistance from early 2023). Second Target: $165 (next major psychological level if sentiment remains strong). 🛑 Stop-Loss: Below $138 (recent swing low and key support zone). Alternatively, a trailing stop-loss to secure profits as the price rises. Catalysts Supporting a Bullish Breakout: 1️⃣ China’s Economic Stimulus 🏦 The Chinese government is expected to announce new stimulus measures to support growth, which could boost investor confidence in Alibaba and other Chinese tech stocks. Potential fiscal easing & liquidity injections may drive funds into large-cap Chinese equities. 2️⃣ Positive Economic Data Expectations 📊 Retail Sales & Industrial Production (March 17, 2025) Strong numbers would indicate a rebound in consumer spending & manufacturing, benefiting Alibaba’s core e-commerce business. 3️⃣ Tariff Reduction Speculations 🌎 If the Chinese Congress signals progress on easing U.S.-China tariffs, Alibaba could see increased foreign investment & improved profitability. 4️⃣ Technical Breakout Potential 🔍 The triple-top pattern could turn into a breakout if volume surges past resistance ($145). A move above this level could trigger short-covering & FOMO buying, leading to a quick rally. What If the Data Disappoints? If economic data underwhelms, BABA could reject resistance and pull back toward $130-$135. In this case, waiting for a confirmed breakout before entering long positions is advisable. 📌 Final Thought: BABA is at a critical inflection point. If economic optimism and stimulus expectations materialize, a breakout past $145 could fuel a strong rally toward $155-$165. Traders should watch for volume confirmation and be prepared to ride the upside while managing risk carefully. 🚀💹 Check out my other ideas about chineese stocks and more:
NYSE:BABALong
by Elite_Forex
CHINA 50 Index Cash Market Bullish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰💸✈️ Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the "CHINA 50 Index Cash" market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk Red Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸Book Profits Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : "The vault is wide open! Swipe the Bullish loot at any price - the heist is on! however I advise to Place buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most recent or swing, low or high level. I Highly recommended you to put alert in your chart. Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL placed at the recent / nearest low level Using the 4H timeframe (13100) swing trade basis. SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take. Target 🎯: 14400 (or) Escape Before the Target 🧲Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. "CHINA 50 Index Cash" Market is currently experiencing a Neutral trend to Bearish., driven by several key factors. 📰🗞️Read the Fundamental, Macro Economics, COT Report, Seasonal Factors, Intermarket Analysis, Sentimental Outlook, Future trend predict. Before start the heist plan read it.👉👉👉 📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly. ⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits 💖Supporting our robbery plan 💥Hit the Boost Button💥 will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱‍👤🤗🤩
FPMARKETS:CHINA50Long
by Thief_Trader