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Brent could trade higher only if...Energy prices climbed on Friday as Brent reached the 92.60 price level and WTI climbed a high of 98.75. This move higher was due to the weakness of the DXY and the anticipation that China was ready to reopen borders, spurring demand for oil. However, as China reiterates its intention to maintain its current Covid policy, both Brent and WTI are retracing lower from last week’s climb higher. Look for the completion of the retracement before a continuation of the uptrend. The prices could test the key resistance level of 97.00 for WTI and 102.00 for Brent, if prices clear above the immediate resistance of 94.00 and 100 respectively.
TVC:USOILLong
by JinDao_Tai
Strong Reversal SPY/SPX IHFundamentals: Slowing growth from Google and Microsoft continued our confirmation of a slowing macro environment. Microsoft reporting slowing growth in cloud revenue. Google even said their strongest ad flow of "search" saw a decline in revenue. Ad spend being the canary in the coal mine indicates the market is ready to continue it's collapse. META continues to blow through cash to build the metaverse. -3 month/10 year yields inverted -Yields/Dollar continue their climb - taking a break the last couple of days. -BOJ intervention -Canadian central bank increasing just .5 -Chinese Xi reigns again and this time with complete dominance - Speaks of a great challenge ahead - Taiwan in the crosshairs -Russians talking nuclear attacks Technical Analysis: The low from Sept 6th, the downward sloping trendline from August 26th, the 50 day MA, combined with the upward trend line from the recent lows created a strong resistance after a 3.5 day run up. ES1! futures stopping a few ticks below 3900. 3 day pumps are the norm. -Gap at 408.6, 200 MA and downward trend line from the ATH creating the next target to the upside. Outlook: I definitely believe there is more downside ahead for the markets into 2023. Although today's price action and macro indicators are pointing down that does not guarantee we have seen the end of this rally. Upside gap to 408.6 is being eyed by the bulls. Perhaps by no coincidence the 200 MA is closing in on that price. Those combined with the downward trend line point to a mid November rally adjourning. Bulls looking to load back up around 375 SPY. Breaking through 375 shows the bears have gained control and we have entered into a longer correction formation or new wave down.
AMEX:SPYShort
by ZaphodBeebz
HSCEI DOWNTREND EXTENSIFIESHang Seng China Enterprises Index was already trading on a downtrend due to the real estate problems and COVID lockdowns that were plaguing the country, but the reelection of President Xi and the concerns that more emphasis will be put on political ideology rather than economic growth led to investors selling off their assets, not willing to deal with the uncertainty. The HSCEI October futures broke the support line of the channel they were trading in and gained even more steam for their downtrend. MACD indicator is confirming the downtrend, while RSI is deep in the oversold area with no prospects to move out of it soon. If the current downtrend continues, the instrument might try to test levels of around 4300. In the opposite scenario, the price might return to its previous local resistance at 5700. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
HKEX:HHI1!Short
by legacyFXofficial
BABA MOMENTUM POSITIVEWeekly Chart - BABA I am taking an interest in BABA here. It has been in a steep correction for well over a year and appears to have made a bullish wedge. What really has my attention is not only the price breakout above but also the momentum break. I may leave myself a little room and time here but I personally may take a heavier interest if it stays this cheap or drags sideways. These patterns are great for trading the spikes but there are no guarantees. It's not uncommon to see a large spike up (15-30%) only to correct and go nowhere for weeks or months. A breakout does not guarantee profit.. but for me the reward outweighs the risk in this zone. Let's see what happens.
NYSE:BABALong
by gghsusa
1
Did $BABA stock BOTTOM?My experience I owned shares of Alibaba for the last 10 months. I started buying when it dropped to $140 in November 2021, and then I started averaging costing during the downtrend, my average price was around $110 and I completely closed my position at the beginning of July 2022 when it traded at $120. In conclusion, made a small 10% during this period, assuming a lot of risks, having money stuck in there creating an opportunity cost for other investments. My first lesson here was "Never try to catch a falling knife" . I've read this quote many times, but I got pushed by the FOMO back in 2021, when I should have waited for some consolidation or lateral movements of the price, to show me some kind of demand at this level before jumping in. I'm sharing my experience in this situation with the idea to help someone with making better investment decisions. The truth is, you must always learn from your own mistakes. But learning from others' mistakes will save you time, stress and money. However, this is where experience lays, funny isn't it? Long-Term Forecast Alibaba is a very interesting business model, with incredible growth in the past. I think that the chart reflects an evolution from a Growth Company to a Stable Company , that's why the P/E valuation went from 30x in the past to 15x nowadays. The market included the growth slowdown to its market cap. Of course, there are many other risks related to Alibaba that also impacted its price during the last year. Some of them are: - Uncertainty Risk is related to the political pressure between the USA and China. - Delisting Risk from NYSE. - Monopoly fines from China. Changes in Chinese state policy regarding publicly traded enterprises , the warming of relations between the US and China, as well as current geopolitical developments where China is implied have created uncertainty for investors. This results in a negative impact on the price of the stock. There are factors that could influence the Chinese government to be tolerant and lower the pressure on publicly traded enterprises, particularly if they choose to give a higher priority to stronger GDP development . Taking everything into account, this could be a fantastic buying opportunity if China is becoming the next world's superpower. However, from my personal point of view, I would rather have companies like Alphabet, Amazon, Apple and Microsoft in my portfolio. I see better potential returns in them. Short-Term Forecast The price is showing consolidation in the zone between $80-$120, the lower part of the channel reflects a strong demand, which is easily spotted by the strong bounces that it has from there. You can also try to trade it by buying near the bottom of the lateral channel and selling it at the top. $BABA released good quarterly earnings, beating expectations in sales and EPS. We should also take into account that when your revenue stays flat in an inflationary environment, probably your income from operations is going to decrease, and that's what happened here. Bullish Scenario If the momentum stays and the market breaks and maintains the $4300 level we can see a significant upside in this stock. Taking it to 120-160 dollars per share. Which in my humble opinion is less likely due to the market conditions and economic challenges that we are facing. The RECESSION is here, and the INFLATION has to go straight down from these levels to prevent a crash in the financial markets. Bearish Scenario If the INFLATION is unstoppable at these interest rates, the market is going to be severely punished. Less consumer demand due to the recession will impact companies' margins. Profit warnings from companies will accelerate the crash. If we find ourselves in this situation, get your cash ready, many investment opportunities will be out there waiting for us. In this case, I would adapt my strategy, and I could consider buying some $BABA at $60 for sure. Alibaba is having strong buybacks from the management. The company has plenty of cash which is going to be used to reduce the outstanding amount of shares and to undertake investment projects. The Debt-Equity Ratio is around 15%, and the company has a healthy balance sheet. The Cloud Segment is getting bigger and it can also be a very important stream of income in the future for the firm. The company is actually trading at 10X Price / Cash Flow, which historically has meant that it is a good buy at this level. From a financial perspective, I think that $BABA is undervalued. The above mentioned characteristics made me start buying the stock at $140, my mistake was that I didn't properly analyse the risks this investment had. Not everything is in the accounting books! Keep your eyes open! I stand SHORT for the next 6-12 months and LONG for the next 3-5 years. Don't forget, I'm a random guy on the internet that is just sharing his point of view. Do not take my reflections as financial advice.
NYSE:BABAShort
by GenadiYankov
2
YANG - China Bear Fund 3x leverageThere are numerous headwinds to the Chinese economy and normally I would say the CCP would be able to manipulate the mechanisms needed to keep stability, but not this time. This time it is different due to conflicting policies and factors outside of their control. You have their 0 Cov policy which is causing widespread business disruption as the Chinese vaccine dose not seem effective against omicron and B.A2 variant. You have them needing to strengthen the yuan due to the dollar ripping higher by selling USD but, they need the dollars to service debts and there is a dollar liquidity crisis which means they need to hold on to every dollar they can. You have the ag sector not fully recovered from decimating their swine herd due to Swine Fever and crops disrupted due to last year's flooding plus a global fertilizer shortage. Finally you have it as a bet that an autocratic regime, governed by a single man who has a record of shooting the messenger, to not respond to economic crisis nimbly, imaginatively and effectively. Entry over the week of 4/25, averaged in at 20.40. Good luck and god speed.
AMEX:YANGShort
by SloppySeconds
3
Copper analysis and ideas: Will bears come back?Copper prices may remain under pressure in the coming months due to investors' apprehension about China's growth prospects in the wake of the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, which disappointed the market. Since September, copper prices have fluctuated within a relatively narrow range (3.2-3.6) after the earlier sharp declines occurred this year. The long-term case for copper remains strong, as it is a key metal for the energy transition and global inventories are currently very low. However, one of the main challenges it faces in the near future is its dependence on China’s economic growth. The brown metal will remain under pressure unless China announces new growth-friendly economic policies to counteract the predicted slowdown in the country’s economy. However, the latest China Party Congress appears to prefer fostering sustainable growth and giving more importance to inequality, national security, and ideological matters. Copper bull markets have historically coincided with periods of extraordinary global growth, driven primarily by China. We have now reached a crossroads in that regard, and if China is unable to maintain high and consistent economic growth, copper will have to wait for a new global wave of coordinated investments toward the development of renewables and green energy. However, given the issues with inflation and rising interest rates that we are currently facing, it may still be years before the transition fully takes hold on a global scale. This could take the price of copper subdued for longer. When we look at the daily chart, we can see that some bearish pressure was forming near the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the 2022 range. Also the 50-day moving average has been a quite strong dynamic resistance later. The technical picture remains overall on the bearish foot, and copper needs to clear the 2022 trendline at around $3.75 and then cross the psychological $4.00 mark before materially inverting the downtrend.
CAPITALCOM:COPPER
by Capitalcom
BILI/USD LONGBILI has had a very rough last couple of months, and has finally reached a point where long trade makes sense base on RISK/REWARD potential from current support. It is currently at MA100*0.236 support line, as well as 0.943 Fib Support level (based on log scale). Also Drawdown of 93% seems like an overdue to find some sort of local bottom, unless you anticipate the stock to go down to 0. Being "Youtube of China", I think it's quiet an unlikely event to take place within next couple of months. I will be deciding on TAKE PROFIT points, based on SPX chart. As of right now, SPX is likely to experience a decent support, and in short/mid term is very likely to see some upside. Once its mini rally will be coming to end, I will then look for exit points.
NASDAQ:BILILong
by kix_
1
Jackson impacting USDAfter an important Jackson, Powell consistent attempt at persuading (or forcing) equities higher is coming to an end and it is time for a round of chart updates across the board. This sort of tendency, which toys with the idea of tapering and rolling up purchases should be seen as such; USD shorts are increasingly less appropriate; but here the dominating factor between the two currencies is the transition to CBDCs and a race to the bottom. The well being and woes of China who are already miles ahead in their fourth beta test, will determine effectively who cancels the currency first. A very plausible move throughout 2020 since buyers remained hesitant to play the safety leg. I was hesitant to play the leg higher but this decision made things a lot easier. The correct course now is switching to a new course, this time an ABC sequence towards 7.31x (+13% from current levels) into 2022 to offer lasting protection, invalidation for this move will come below March 2018 lows (-3% from current levels).
Long
by ridethepig
10
AUD/USD eyes job dataAUD/USD is considerably lower today, trading at 0.6273, down 0.57%. Australia releases employment data on Thursday, with the markets expecting that the report will show that the labour market remains robust. The economy is forecast to have created 25,000 jobs in September, following the 35,000 gain in August. Unemployment is expected to remain at 3.5%. The strong labour market has enabled the RBA to continue its sharp rate-tightening cycle, with the cash rate currently at 2.60%. The central bank plans to continue raising rates, as the focus is on curbing inflation, which came in at 6.8% in August. The October inflation report will be especially significant, as it will be released just days before the RBA meeting on November 1st (in addition to the quarterly CPI report, Australia has started releasing a monthly inflation release, but it covers only 70% of goods and services). Higher rates will curb inflation eventually, but the cost could be an economic recession. Already, households are straining their budgets as inflation remains red-hot and higher interest rates are increasing borrowing repayments. This will likely dampen consumer spending, a key driver of economic growth. The Australian dollar has hit hard times. Since August 1st, AUD/USD has plunged 550 points, as risk sentiment has taken a beating and the Federal Reserve's aggressive tightening has boosted the US dollar. China's economy has been struggling and the escalation of the Ukraine conflict, with no end in sight, has sapped the appetite for risk-related currencies like the Australian dollar. With the Fed likely to deliver more oversize rate hikes and China and Ukraine likely to remain hotspots, the outlook does not look bright for the Aussie. AUD/USD faces resistance at 0.6331 and 0.6460 0.6250 is under pressure in support. Below, there is support at 0.6121
by OANDA
Another leg up for crude oil? To answer this question, we need to look at the following: 1) US Strategic Petroleum Reserve The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is currently at its lowest level since 1984, while the absolute level is worrisome, the speed of the drawdown on the reserve over the past year is more concerning. In an effort to combat rising prices and possibly secure the midterm elections, President Biden has continually announced release from the reserve, depleting close to a third of the reserve since the start of 2022. If and when this extra supply is cut off, oil prices will likely head higher. 2) OPEC Production Cuts With the OPEC announcement to cut production by 2 million barrels per day, the world is yet under more energy supply stress. While the cut is only about 2% of global supply, it does signify a shift in stance from OPEC, clashing with the West as the US condemns OPEC’s actions. With the next OPEC+ meeting taking place in December, we will closely monitor if further production tightening continues. 3) Crude Oil and DXY As Crude Oil is quoted in USD, the dollar’s performance has a great impact on oil prices. The chart above shows the dollar (inverted) against Crude Oil. The 2 generally move together, up until the start of 2022, when dollar strengthened significantly alongside oil. As this relationship stretches further away from the normal, we fear a ‘snap’ may occur should a pivot in the Fed’s policies occur. That would greatly weaken the USD, and push oil prices significantly higher. 4) China’s turn With China still essentially closed from the rest of the world, any shift towards opening the Chinese economy could awaken the world’s 2nd largest consumer of oil. Looking at the Crude Oil Chart, we see a continued uptrend since the negative oil prices fiasco in May 2022. With a stalled attempt to break lower in September, and prices now back in line with the uptrend, we could potentially see higher oil prices from here. We also note the 90$ handle as a significant level, where 2 previous attempts to break past were rejected. But with a clear and decisive break past the 90$ mark, are the bulls in control now? In our opinion, crude oil is like the stone on a slingshot, stretched further and further back by multiple macro factors. If any were to snap, oil could be slingshot higher… Entry at 92.25, stops at 85. Target at 100. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify any trading set-ups in real-time and react accordingly. To find out more, visit www.tradingview.com under the CME Group exchange to view the real-time data plans available. Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by inspirante
11
Forecast CNYRUB #FOREX #CNYRUB Good Saturday night to everyone! What's happening now? The Central Bank of the Russian Federation continues to keep the ruble exchange rate in manual control, which is why we are observing a protracted lateral movement. But now we will not dive into the fundamental wilds of why, why and who benefits from it, but just see what our trading system says. Especially yesterday we were all very emotionally stressed:) So there are still two key magnets on the system at the top - on ~ 11.3 and ~ 13.3 Before that, it is likely that there may be a decrease in the green zone by 6.5-7.3, where you can rebalance the foreign exchange portfolio, that is, add more yuan. At the same time, you need to understand that markets, like a world device, are now staggering and moving extremely high frequency, so any deal now is a risk! Calculate the risks in advance so that the psyche is intact in cases where everything does not go according to plan. * This post is not investment advice
Long
by airstels
AUD/CAD 700 Pips Bargain: AUSSIE's Plight Deteriorates FurtherFundamentals : The China Factor : Australia's economy is intimately linked to trade with China. (1) China's lack of demand for iron ore as their economy undergoes a recession. " Disaster looming in Australian economy as iron ore demand falls " (Daily Telegraph: www.dailytelegraph.com.au ) www.imf.org fred.stlouisfed.org markets.businessinsider.com (2) Deterioration of China's economy due to a zero-covid strategy (3) China's property sector is cooling (4) Aussie's Housing data becomes " haunting ": stockhead.com.au Technicals : Past support becoming future resistance Weekly BBT Monthly BBT Hit Bollinger Band 2nd Deviation in a slightly ranging market with a downward slope Medium-term trend direction is downward dHd
Short
by Rocketman
Many Megatrends Depend on Semiconductors. Governments are competing with each other to ensure stable future supplies The phrase ‘chip shortage’ has made quite an impression1. - The US has earmarked an enormous one-time sum, $77 billion, in subsidies and tax credits to boost chip production within the US - China is prepared to spend more than $150 billion through 2030 - South Korea is poised to offer an array of incentives over the coming five years, valued at roughly $260 billion - The European Union (EU) is seeking to spend $40 billion - Japan is seeking to spend $6 billion In 2021, revenues in semiconductors were $553 billion, and are expected to grow to $1.35 trillion by 2030. Roughly three-quarters of chip-making capacity is in China, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan. The US only sits at about 13%, whereas the EU sits at roughly 9%2. All chips are not the same The Covid-19 Pandemic has shown different economies the importance of securing the supply of semiconductors. One thing to note is that there is a wide variety of semiconductors, and some countries are seeking to secure one type of supply over another. China’s push is aimed less at the cutting edge and more at being a higher volume player in the essential part of the market for lower priced but still important chips3. Some necessary chips that inhibit the production of automobiles, for example, could be valued at $1 dollar or less on a per-unit basis4, far from the most cutting edge in the space. Company results are showcasing both successes and failures Intel reported that Q2 earnings that received a bleak reception, with revenue falling 17% relative to Q1 of 2022. This was the worst sequential quarter-to-quarter revenue performance going back to the year 2000. Intel also noted a delay to its next generation server chip, Sapphire Rapids, and that its data centre chip business would grow slower than the overall data centre market for two years5. This compares to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) growing revenue 37% and profit by 76% year-over-year6. Earlier in 2022, Samsung reportedly lost its two biggest foundry customers, Qualcomm and Nvidia, to TSMC. Reports indicate that they were not satisfied with Samsung’s capability in the 4 and 5-nanometre space, which represents the current cutting-edge in semiconductor manufacturing. TSMC captures greater than 50% of foundry market share, operating at a market share level roughly three times that of Samsung. Still, Samsung did hold a recent ceremony to celebrate its first shipment of 3-nanometre chips, hitting this milestone faster than TSMC7. In contrast, it is estimated that roughly 25% of TSMC’s business is from Apple, and then Nvidia, Qualcomm and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) are estimated to provide about another 5% each8. Capital expenditures set companies up for future growth TSMC is also investing at an incredible clip, aiming to spend up to $44 billion in 2022 compared to Samsung’s $12 billion, even if Samsung has announced a spending plan to total $151 billion between now and 20309. Intel has announced in its most recent, admittedly tough, quarterly results a plan to cut planned capital expenditures in 2022 by 15% to a level of $23 billion10. Samsung is also facing competition in the dynamic random access memory (DRAM) business, as Micron and SK Hynix have introduced some of the most advanced chips for these purposes. Still, even amidst the competitive onslaught, Samsung’s DRAM market shares sit at about 40%. In the smartphone application processor market, Samsung’s market share was 6.6%, compared with Qualcomm at 37.7%, MediaTek at 26.3% and Apple at 26%11. Time to invest? Semiconductor companies tend to follow a particular rhythm, seeing strong demand, making investments, increasing supply, hitting levels of oversupply in certain types of chips, then waiting for the market to re-attain something closer to equilibrium. Today, we may be at the tail-end of the ‘chip shortage’ and it may not, at least in the short run, be the time to expect an immediate performance pop in the share prices of most semiconductor companies. However, any megatrend that touches technology in any way requires semiconductors to function—in a sense if any of them grow, the demand for necessary semiconductors will also grow. Having a multi-year time horizon could be of greater interest, in our view. Since not all semiconductors are the same, it is also worth recognising that different companies may be more associated with different megatrends—for instance, certain companies are doing more in Artificial Intelligence (AI) model training space, whereas others are doing more in the industrial and automobile space. The supply/demand balance within different types of semiconductors will not necessarily be the same. Sources 1 Source: Sohn, Jiyoung. “The U.S. Is Investing Big in Chips. So Is the Rest of the World.” Wall Street Journal. 31 July 2022. 2 Source: Sohn, 31 July 2022. 3 Source: Strumpf, Dan & Liza Lin. “China Bets Big on Basic Chips in Self-Sufficiency Push.” Wall Street Journal. 24 July 2022. 4 Source: Gallagher, Dan. “No Quick Fix for Auto Chip Shortage.” Wall Street Journal. 9 February 2021. 5 Source: Kim, Tae. “Intel Stock Will Plunge Further, Analyst Says, after ‘Worst’ Quarter He Has Ever Seen.” Barron’s. 29 July 2022. 6 Mellow, Craig. “Taiwan Semi’s Spending Spree Will Pay Off Big in the Long Term.” Barron’s. 29 July 2022. 7 Source: Jung-a, Song & Christian Davies. “Samsung seeks to reassure markets over semiconductor competitiveness.” Financial Times. 30 July 2022. 8 Source: Craig, 29 July 2022. 9 Source: Jung-a, 30 July 2022. 10 Source: Gallagher, Dan. “Intel Shows Limits of Chips Act.” Wall Street Journal. 29 July 2022. 11 Source: Jung-a, 30 July 2022. This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
NASDAQ:NXPI
by aneekaguptaWTE
1