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Market comments #1Hello everyone. I tried to put out regular market updates in the past, but I failed to do so for different reasons. This time, my idea is to gather the best tweets, articles, charts, etc., and add some brief comments. I will post these out regularly as long as I have decent material. 1. Sentiment is still very bearish, which means more upside is still possible. twitter.com 2. Soft landing team seems to be doing well so far... Until it eventually won't be doing so. I believe a scenario like 1989 is possible for markets, though I am slightly less optimistic than Jared. www.bloomberg.com twitter.com 3. Valuations can get out of hand as multiple market forces drive stocks. Stocks could trade higher and higher despite bad earnings. twitter.com twitter.com 4. The US has low unemployment, but its labor market is nowhere near as strong as it was before Covid or before the 2008 GFC twitter.com twitter.com 5. Jobs are a lagging indicator; however, as the Fed is working with lagging data, they could hike more than they should. Good news now = bad news later; therefore, the market suffers now on good news, as it 'sees' the future. twitter.com twitter.com twitter.com 6. The yield curve inverting doesn't mean we will have a crash. A recession is guaranteed at this point, but remember that the recession comes many months after the inversion. twitter.com 7. So far, this is a worse situation than 2012, 2015, and 2018; however it is nowhere near as bad as 2008 or 2020. Could it get that bad? I doubt it for now. Of course, with new data, I am ready to change my mind if I have to. twitter.com 8. Some interesting comments by Jared Dillian with whom I agree: twitter.com twitter.com 9. My main worry is what happens between the US and China in the next few months, especially in October, as I think it would be tough to avoid an invasion. Heightened tensions alone can create a lot of problems... twitter.com 10. The Turkish Lira is heading yet for another collapse. No idea what could stop the Turkish economy from falling off a cliff in the next few years. www.zerohedge.com
by BitcoinMacro
⚡️ #BTCLIVE - 04.08 ⚡️⚡️ #BTCLIVE - 04.08 ⚡️ 60:40 Bullish:Bearish Current Status: At the bottom of a symmetrical triangle - bouncing twice recently with relatively level volume showing distinct signs of ranging. Longer term Bullish Divergence is now in play. Unfilled CME Gap sitting at 23.7k to 23.9k along with the POC, both bullish. On a more macro level currently sat in the middle of a longer term range that is effectively a bear flag with a high of $25.5k and a low of $21.5k. Expecting to see a break out of this consolidation triangle over the next 24hours - direction unconfirmed. News: - Coinbase X BlackRock Partner for institutional investment > Bullish on BTC & ETH - Coinbase starts Ethereum Staking > Bullish on BTC & ETH - META introduces Coinbse Wallets to platform > Bullish on BTC - Options Expiry Friday > Heavy Volatility - China x Taiwan FUD/Conflict > Bearish on all markets On-Chain Growing supply in older age bands - This signifies that both HODLers be HODLing, AND that they are not spending their cold storage coins. Declining supply in younger age bands - literally the equal and opposite reaction. Generally speaking - this is what we want and are starting to see for a bear market floor Bullish Scenario Breaking and retesting $23.4k will see a short term target of approx. $24k and a bigger term target of $25.5k Bearish Scenario A Break down and retest of $22.7k will likely start the descent to $21.5k at the lower range of the longer term - breaking down on that will spell major bloodshed.
by Kryptochristian
2
XAUUSD 4H TA : 08.03.22 (Update)As you can see the price reacted positively after it reached to its Bullish Breaker Block and now is consolidationg above 1760$ ! if the price can stablize above this price we can expect another bull run , but if the prie penetrates below 1752$ , we can expect another fall to 1720$ ! Let's See ... ! Follow us for more analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, we are here to help. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading 📅 08.03.2022 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
OANDA:XAUUSD
by ArmanShabanTrading
13
🥳 BTCUSD China will give rise to coin target 34,000 🥳 BTCUSD China will give rise to coin target 34,000 ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE predictions on TradingView . . . . . Please show your support . . . . . . . . Click the 👍 LIKE button . . . . . . . . . . . Leave your feedback below in the comments! ❤️ I use all my transactions in real trading in my account, my account has already reached Profitability: 1549.04%🙏!❤️ It's your turn! Be sure to leave a comment and let us know how you see this opportunity and prediction.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by QuantumLabSignals
Upside for Gold as rate expectation cooled by recession riskSummary The surge in energy and agricultural commodities in the past 6 months had materialized into serious inflation even down to the consumer end across the globe. To cope with inflation, the Fed has begun to raise rate at an accelerating pace. The rise in the interest rate of the USD causes dysfunction of traditional risk haven such as Japanese Yen FX:USDJPY and Gold COMEX:GC1! . However, with more evidence that the US is very close to a recession, the Fed might need to tune down to a more cautious approach to balance between taming inflation and speeding up recession due to higher borrowing cost (and debt repayment) for business. The stabilization in rate hike might soften the already strong dollar, hence providing room for traditional risk haven assets to rebound and restore some of their risk haven property . With still ongoing global political uncertainty (see appendix for more detail), there might be further upside potential beyond rebound. One should pay extra attention to the collective transition of power globally which is happening at a similar time coincidentally. Technical and trade planning Just like most commodities, the dominant force driving gold downward is the strength of the USD. The US Dollar Index TVC:DXY had reached a new high at 107.786, before retracing back to 106.895 to close lower last Friday, creating a reverse hammer candle. While the uptrend of the dollar index is still effective, however the bearish pattern hinted the peak might have reached (or at least the upside momentum is reducing) . Similar pattern in reverse was seen in many commodities including gold, which means opportunity for rebound trade. Note that gold currently is trading below most moving averages which means the downtrend is still in power. 20 days moving average trading below the 50 days, and both pointing downward double confirm the bearish view. In rebound trade it is very important to keep your cut loss and profit taking tight. One should also adopt strategies that allow more tolerance for error (e.g. longing call option with >30-60 days to expiration). Here are some technical levels trader of gold should be aware of: Downside support (to cut loss if dropped through) 1676.7: 2021-Aug hammer candle bottom 1721.8: 2021-Sep downside retest bottom Upside resistance (to take profit if fail to go further) 1785: May-16 bottom (broke on Jul-5) 1833: 250 days moving average 1878.6: Jul-3 rebound peak Appendix: Political events to keep an eye on Asia The former prime minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe was assassinated last Friday. Abe was seen as the de facto power of Japan. He initiated and was involved in lots of Japan economic policy and China-Japan relation issues. Close ties with global leaders, he was one of the early promoters of threat emerging from growing China, which later led to global boycott of China. He also showed his support to Taiwan as he saw the country as the first line of defense of Japan from China. One of his unaccomplished goals was to revise the country’s pacifist constitution to formalize the Japanese self-defense force as army, and broaden its military agenda outside of homeland defense, to be involved in regional security issues, such as Taiwan. The death of Shinzo Abe might help the constitutional revision to gain more supportive votes, which will worsen China-Japan existing tension. The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party will take place in November this year. One of the major topics is whether the current Chinese leader Xi Jinping will be re-elected for the next 5-years term. With lots of policy missteps that have caused material harm to the Chinese economy and financial stability, there are growing voices within the party that they might want a leader who can focus on reviving the Chinese economy instead of political ideals. At the same time, Xi is neutralizing the opposition force by revealing their evidence of misconduct and corruption (same strategy 10 years ago). The upcoming continuation or transition of power in China is going to be a very tricky one. Europe No end in sight for Russian invasion toward Ukraine, albeit increasing military support by the western powers. Inflation continues to make record highs in Europe with latest June CPI figures standing at 8.6%, energy talk with Russia is going to be very difficult especially for natural gas which is virtually impossible to get supply from other continents. The prime minister of the UK, Boris Johnson had resigned last week amid back-to-back scandals , with the Chris Pincher case became the last straw that broke the camel's back. The United States Recession risk, high gasoline price, baby formula shortage, the series of unfortunate events had taken a toll on the president Joe Biden approval rate, which dropped to just 30% in the new national poll. The negative sentiment toward democrats is likely to make the republicans take control of both the senate and the house. The democrats probably can take advantage of the recent Supreme Court’s decision of overturning Roe v. Wade, however the edge might not be enough to change much according to the latest forecast.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by geoffreyip523
Speculating on CNY .. from a "distance"Looking at the CNY and its highest probable and most immediate index levels that we can theorize and speculate (using fundamentals and reason) the currency reaching in the seemingly distant future. This is one, if not the most fascinating markets and charted data I have ever studied. As the most powerful and fastest growing economy on earth, market performance in China will play increasingly more influential roles in the global marketplace and its participants. As the post-world war II global economy continues its evolution in the early 21st century, I will certainly be keeping my eye on the Juan. On this publishing I am showing the theoretical levels on what would be a full retracement to the .618 of the already completed impulse down from the CNY's all-time high of 8.74. In order for this fibonacci retracement to be properly placed at these levels, the CNY would need to continue the monthly bullish uptrend to the golden pocket zone of around 7.7, where it would then need to break the trend or significantly consolidate. Its not my most traditional, or most immediately useful piece of work, but, hopefully this is interesting to you like it is to me. Happy trading, and good luck!
by Bobbyusesfib
So, I looked at the CNY (Chinese Yuan or Juan) more, and..Check out my most recent publishing(s) referring to this particular exchange rate in the "Related Ideas" section below if your interested in the USDCNY. I took a closer look at my in-depth analysis over the weekend and felt as though it needed some adjustments (additions*) + further complication.. but its for the better.. hear me out. Ive been spending the last month or so, and will be spending as much time as necessary to catch up and become more and more familiar with what's appearing to become an even more disastrous real estate market than what we know to be the worst recorded event (in relativity) in capitalism history. ("the 2008 financial crisis") This event could be worse, simply due to the fact that China is so powerful.. (which is good for us; the money managers!) As a trader, its important to consider the recent upturn regarding political and socioeconomic gossip. IYKYK There is plenty of public and freely available information on how to approach any market using fundamental risk management. Save this, be patient, and ask questions. Happy trading, and good luck!
by Bobbyusesfib
Aussie shrugs after inflation reportThe Australian dollar has edged higher on Wednesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6950 in European trade. Australia's inflation rate accelerated in the second quarter, but the market reaction was muted, as the 6.1% gain was a notch below the estimate of 6.2%. Inflation still remains the RBA's number one problem, as CPI jumped from 5.1% in Q1. With inflation coming in a bit less than forecast, RBA hiking expectations have been pared lower, which briefly sent the Australian dollar lower. The key question of "how much, how fast" the RBA will increase rates depends not just on how high inflation is running, but on the resilience of the economy to withstand ever higher rates. The labour market remains robust, with the unemployment rate falling to 3.5% in June, down from 3.8% in May. The trade surplus jumped in May and the manufacturing sector continues to show strong expansion. At the same time, the global growth outlook is uncertain and fears of a slowdown in China are weighing on risk sentiment which could prove to be a major headwind for the Australian dollar. The minutes of the RBA July meeting stated that policymakers discussed the neutral rate (which is neither expansionary nor contractionary) and the 1.35% cash rate was "well below" that. Governor Lowe has often quoted 2.5% as around neutral, leaving little doubt that the RBA plans more hikes in the second half of the year. All eyes are on the Federal Reserve meeting later today. The markets are expecting a 75bp move, but there is an outside chance of a massive 100bp, as the Fed continues its epic battle with inflation, which accelerated to 9.1% in June, up from 8.6% in May. If, as expected, the Fed delivers a second-straight 75bp move, it will be interesting to see if the US dollar gains any ground or will the reaction be muted. This will depend on what Fed Chair Powell has to say and the tone of his remarks. There is resistance at 0.7005 and 0.7085 0.6897 is providing support, followed by 0.6817
by OANDA
Jamie Gun2Head Trade - Selling China50 Trade Idea: Selling China50 Reasoning: Reaction from major support level . Interim support at 1713 in front of FED meeting later today. Entry Level: 13943 Take Profit Level: 13630 Stop Loss: 14078 Risk/Reward: 2.32:1 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
FOREXCOM:CHINA50Short
by Signal_Centre
$SPY the outlook 👁‍🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management Recap: Bitcoin along with the US market should take a decent hit sometime this week due to the continuation of strength in the US dollar. Bear-Index's, the dollar, and energy appear to be where the money will be flowing during this period if this does play out. This would lead to a temporary slowdown in the growing Chinese economy and allow it to retest support. What's neat about this chart is that everything besides the arrow and the text was done months ago. It's really neat whenever our previous works help us determine the possible trajectory of the market. !! This chart analysis is for reference purposes only !! If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
SP:SPXShort
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney
$TECS market hedge 👁‍🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management My team will be using $TECS to secure gains from the possible upcoming market downturn. Our portfolio as of 7/11/22: $TECS $CRK $MIRM OUR ENTRY: $45.50 TAKE PROFIT: $60 STOP LOSS: $43.50 If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
AMEX:TECSLong
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney
1
Chinese stocks have incredible surprise for youChina is number one, huh? Are you really afraid of communistic party going mad and destroying everything they've earned with hard work last 20 years? They already spread covid and use their russian doll to harm West and that will be enough for them to continue going forward and building more trading routes in South America, Africa and Asia. China is here to stay no matter you like it or not, but they are working hard and providing value. Long your longs before FED change it's policy in September-November and revaluate food and energy weight in CPI indexes or else... Also most covid noob plebs already out of stonks and crypto and done with investing, rooting in a crisis. Would you buy the blood and fear here or sell with normies is the question?! Dollar value is still going down since the day it was born no matter what.
NYSE:BABALong
by WagsCapital
4
$BTCM great risk to reward ratio 👁‍🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management Recap: My team took profit and ran away with a 34% gain from $BTCM just a few weeks ago. Price has dropped significantly since then and looks ready to pop. My team entered Bitcoin Mining Company $BTCM today at $.67 cent per share. Our first take profit is $1. We also have a stop loss set at $.615. This company is a standout from other Bitcoin mining companies. It doesn't exactly trade the same as the others due to China relations, but with investors now eyeing investments overseas this could become a goldmine soon. OUR ENTRY: $.67 FIRST TAKE PROFIT: $1 STOP LOSS: $.615 If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
NYSE:BTCMLong
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney
Aussie edges up after strong US retail salesThe week wrapped up on a high note, as June US retail sales beat expectations. The headline and core readings both accelerated in June, with solid gains of 1.0%. This indicates that US consumers are still spending despite the toll that higher inflation and higher rates are taking on disposable income. The strong retail sales report will raise expectations that the Fed will be content to raise rates "only" by 0.75%, rather than a full 1.00% at the next meeting. When the markets have a chance to digest the numbers on Monday, risk appetite will likely rise, which could push the US dollar lower. China's economy slowed down in the second quarter, which is no real surprise given the Covid-zero policy which resulted in mass lockdowns. The economy posted a small gain of 0.4% YoY, missing the estimate of 1.0% (4.8% prior). On an annualized basis, GDP contracted by 2.6%, worse than the forecast of -1.5% (+1.4% prior). These weak numbers were offset by a strong bounce in retail sales, which jumped 3.10% in June, crushing the estimate of -0.3% (-6.7% prior). If China can avoid further lockdowns in key cities such as Shanghai, we can expect GDP to rebound in Q3. The health of China's economy is critical for Australia, as China is its biggest trading partner. An excellent employment report earlier this week on Thursday has raised concerns that the RBA may need to accelerate its rate-tightening cycle and consider larger rate increases. The economy gained 88.8 thousand new jobs, blowing the estimate of 30.0 thousand out of the water. As well, the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, down from 3.9% and below the 3.8% estimate. The RBA has been raising rates aggressively, but even so, the cash rate is still at a low 1.35%, and clearly the RBA will have to hike sharply to make a dent in inflation, which is running at 5.1%. We'll get a look at CPI for the second quarter at the end of July. AUD/USD is putting pressure on resistance at 0.6782. Next, there is resistance at 0.6839 There is support at 0.6706 and 0.6649
by OANDA
KWEB: UNIQUE LONG TERM OPPORTUNITY?KWEB, Chinese internet ETF Chinese techs have been in a bear market since February 2021, with the price of KWEB unable to break above the long trend line (in blue). Kweb has found a bottom in March 2022. Is Kweb bullish? Is it the end of the bear market for Chinese tech stocks? Here is everything you need to know before making a decision: - Currently the price is trying to create a bottoming base as we have seen higher lows (light black line) since March and the bearish trend line (blue) was broken. - I see an ascending triangle with the top horizontal line of the triangle at 32.71. We tried to break this line 3 times but failed to maintain above. A sustainable break above 32.71 would be considered as bullish. - We could backtest the rising black line of the ascending triangle before starting a bullish trend, but not sure. - Mind the small gap around 28 that could also be filled. - We're above the ichimoku cloud, which shows that the trend is changing. The lagging span (in green) still have to confirm the change of trend by crossing the bearish blue trend line. - China in quantitative easing mode as western economies are tightening. I'm long KWEB with a long term view. My buying zone is between 30 and 27.74 with a stop at 26.40 . Trade safe.
AMEX:KWEBLong
by Elpidaldo