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CHINA: End of a 17 Year Consolidation - Epic Breakout next? Regardless of your political bias, here's the bullish case - Pandemic, regulatory clampdown, China-fear mongering has driven stocks down - Broke down from pennant in April 2022 but recovered and closed within pennant - bear trap? - Structural shift in new world order (see Ray Dahlio's animated explanation www.youtube.com) - Curious timing where the major investment banks have gotten majority control of their China business in 2020 - US coming to an end of a 40 year major cycle and a 90 year mega cycle - have printed money out of their problems for the last decade or more. End of low interest rate environment. Funds have to flow somewhere!
SSE:000001Long
by fightingdragons
1
AUD/USD & AUD/JPY Analysis / Iron Ore & InflationThe Australian Dollar has weakened in recent weeks due to Iron Ore prices declining as China's zero covid policy has caused investors to fear a slowdown in the world's second-biggest economy. Australia exports 80% of Iron ore to China, so any slowdown in China will hit demand for Australia's commodity exports and put downward pressure on the currency. We also have Australian inflation data out tomorrow, which could surprise to the upside and beat economists' forecast, causing a rally higher in the Australian Dollar on rate hike expectations. In this video I break down what could play out and how to make money from the potential outcomes.
COMEX:TIO1!Long
by KayansMarkets
The Beginning of the Golden Dragons Collapse?China is struggling, Covid 3.0 or whatever version we are on now is taking a hold of the Chinese, Shanghai in lockdowns and Shipments struggling to dock. The Chinese Economy is in a very interesting position currently, with Companies like the Chinese Titanic 'Evergrande' defaulting. We are seeing China try to expand its influence in the SCS ( South China Sea). When we take a look at the currency pair USDCNH, we are seeing the USD start to gain some real ground and this weekly charts shows the potential for this rally to continue to the 7 area, we can look for a retest of volume before opening potential long positions.
Long
by ZenFlo
$BABA, $AMZN 's dirty little secret.NYSE:BABA Anyone paying attention to $BABA? Are you considering buying into the $AMZN stock split? Are you concerned about chinese stock delisting? Geopolitics, Index fund Managers, lobbying, market reset by the FED's and technical analysis (the psychology of the investor) have a lot to do with what happens in the future. Did you know that as of 2021, China-based sellers represented 75 percent of new sellers on Amazon, according to a report by Marketplace Pulse. This marks a significant increase from 47 percent in the previous year. This large segment of China-based sellers on Amazon has not yet impacted the gross merchandise volume (GMV) market share. Domestic sellers are responsible for most of the total sales. Three-quarters of new sellers in the top four core Amazon markets — U.S., UK, Germany, and Japan — are based in China. That percentage is the calculated average of the four marketplaces, according to Marketplace Pulse analysis of more than 40,000 sellers that joined those Amazon marketplaces so far in 2021. So what does this mean for the future of $AMZN prices? Simply, if BABA gets delisted; the revenge from the Chinese government will be major; you think logistical issues, trucker shortages, and inflation is affecting prices? You've not seen nothing yet! My assumption is that the market reset is going as planned with major impact on Chinese stocks to limit the momentum of Chinese GDP (#2) against the U.S. (#1). The U.S. needs China just as much China needs the U.S. so the lobbying power of $AMZN and the rest will ensure the continuity of Chinese presence in the U.S. (those max profits are critically needed). Oooh before I forget, technical analysis: Daily Chart EMA (Exponential Moving Average): 20/50/100/200 EMA (everyone and their mama) are pointing downwards ! This spells bad news, especially going into May (a slow market month) TTM Squeeze: Squeezing to the bottom; momentum to the downside for both $AMZN and $BABA. Fib Levels: $BABA - with the current red candle crossing below the .618, there is very high probability that the price action will aim for the 1 fib. This will take us to the previous support and low of $73.28 or a possibility of going below that. Candle Stick: Summary of last 5 candles equate to a bearish movement. The last pairs look like a Bearish engulfing Pattern: Down by the sea ... off to the Falling Wedge for both $BABA and $AMZN News: Do I need to add more to the above? Well, with $NFLX taking a whooping on recent price increase policy, do you think $AMZN may face the same fate? History: The last 2 earnings have resulted in a downward trend even with great numbers. Everyone and their mama is talking about this stock... Company is worth Trillions and the consumer base love them... hmm... I really need to be buying the bottom.
NYSE:BABALong
by STAKKNATION
6
DAILY GOLD ANALYSISAccording to Wall Street traders, they have reached their profit ******** And the Asian news that came out and the increase in interest rates could be the end of the gold climb ******** We are now in area 50 of Fibonacci who can approve the correction ********* And according to Elliott waves, we have entered phase 8 of the wave ******* My views are technical, if the United States wants to change the trend, it means there will be price manipulation. ******* Every market needs supply and demand. Now we have witnessed recklessness in gold trading. ******** Thank you for being with me so far
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ALIREZATR60
2
Aussie under pressure from Fed, ChinaThe Australian dollar has extended its losses today, as AUD/USD trades just above the 0.74 line in the European session. It has been a rough stretch for the currency, which has managed just one winning session since April 5th. The Australian dollar has been hurt by the Fed-powered US dollar as well as concerns about China's growth, as the country grapples with an outbreak of Covid. The Federal Reserve has embarked on a rate-tightening cycle, which began with a 0.25% hike at the March meeting. With US inflation soaring, the Fed has been criticized for falling behind the curve on inflation. There is growing pressure to take stronger action and Fed members, including doves such as Lael Brainard, have been telegraphing that one or more oversize rate hikes of 0.50% are on the table. The Fed traditionally adjusts rates by 0.25%, and there are concerns that if the Fed is overaggressive in its rate hikes, it will be difficult to ensure a soft landing for the economy, which could fall into a recession. The Fed is also tightening policy via quantitative tightening, as it will begin to trim its balance sheet shortly. US Treasury yields have climbed sharply as a result of the Fed's new hawkishness, with 10-year yields currently at 2.83%, a 52-week high. Investors remain concerned over the Covid-19 outbreaks in Shanghai and elsewhere. China has imposed a strict zero-Covid policy and has imposed harsh lockdowns. There are estimates that a staggering 375 million people are under full or partial lockdown, which is a huge slice of the country's GDP. Things could get worse if the government extends lockdowns to other manufacturing hubs, which would lead to massive disruptions in supply chains. China's Covid woes could weigh heavily on the Australian dollar, as the Asian giant is Australia's largest trade partner. The Aussie is struggling, and fell as low as 0.7391 earlier this week, its lowest level since March 22nd. AUD/USD faces resistance at 0.7605 and 0.7750 There is support at 0.7371 and 0.7282
by OANDA
How China’s zero-COVID policy is taking a toll on its economyThe more contagious omicron strain of COVID-19 is testing China’s zero-tolerance COVID-19 policy and while many signs underscore the strategy’s adverse impact on the country’s economic recovery, Beijing continues to stick to it, dismissing suggestions that China should learn to live with the virus as other nations do. Lockdowns in Shenzhen and Shanghai The resurgence of COVID-19 cases in Shenzhen, dubbed as China’s Silicon Valley, prompted authorities to impose a week-long lockdown of its 17.5 million residents in March. The curbs forced the closure of some factories including those of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) supplier Foxconn (TW:2317) and carmakers Toyota Motor (NYSE:TM) and Volkswagen (FRA:VOW). Shenzhen is also home to tech giants including Tencent (HKG:0700) and Huawei Technologies. While JP Morgan analysts do not expect the Shenzhen lockdown to have a big impact on iPhone production, some economists have delivered a grim warning on the lockdown in Shanghai. Authorities in China’s financial hub last week extended the lockdown of 26 million people as the city launched its largest public health response in the COVID-19 pandemic era. ING Bank’s Greater China chief economist Iris Pang warned that the cost of the lockdown in Shanghai and in other areas in China will have a “huge” cost to the country’s growth. Shanghai is tipped to suffer a 6% GDP loss if the lockdown persists in April, leading to a 2% GDP loss for the whole of China. The lockdown in Shanghai also affected the production of some known brands including Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), German auto parts giant Bosch, and Taiwan’s Pegatron (TW:4938), another iPhone assembler. Offshore Yuan and China H-shares After trending downward for the previous 7 months, news of the extreme lockdowns prompted the USDCNH to break upwards and out of its channel. The USDCNH, at this point, doesn’t have a clear path back to its previous territory. Conversely, the China H-shares index saw a reversal of fortune on March 16. The China H-shares index follows Chinese incorporated companies which are traded on exchanges outside the country. The boost may have come from investors realising that China would be unlikely to face sanction from the US after failing to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine more forcibly in the beginning. GDP slowdown The latest developments in China are widely expected to take a toll on the economy that is already battered by the slowdown in the real estate sector and other downward risks. Everbright Securities recently warned that Beijing’s move to cling to its zero-COVID strategy could knock 10 percentage points out of China’s GDP on a quarterly basis in the first quarter. Natixis, meanwhile, expects the lockdowns and transport restrictions to slash 1.8 percentage points from China’s first-quarter GDP. Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist at Capital Economics, in late March warned that "the economy is in the midst of its most abrupt downturn since early 2020.” China is set to release its quarterly GDP data on Monday, April 18.
C
by BlackBull_Markets
How China’s zero-COVID policy is taking a toll on its economyThe more contagious omicron strain of COVID-19 is testing China’s zero-tolerance COVID-19 policy and while many signs underscore the strategy’s adverse impact on the country’s economic recovery, Beijing continues to stick to it, dismissing suggestions that China should learn to live with the virus as other nations do. Lockdowns in Shenzhen and Shanghai The resurgence of COVID-19 cases in Shenzhen, dubbed as China’s Silicon Valley, prompted authorities to impose a week-long lockdown of its 17.5 million residents in March. The curbs forced the closure of some factories including those of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) supplier Foxconn (TW:2317) and carmakers Toyota Motor (NYSE:TM) and Volkswagen (FRA:VOW). Shenzhen is also home to tech giants including Tencent (HKG:0700) and Huawei Technologies. While JP Morgan analysts do not expect the Shenzhen lockdown to have a big impact on iPhone production, some economists have delivered a grim warning on the lockdown in Shanghai. Authorities in China’s financial hub last week extended the lockdown of 26 million people as the city launched its largest public health response in the COVID-19 pandemic era. ING Bank’s Greater China chief economist Iris Pang warned that the cost of the lockdown in Shanghai and in other areas in China will have a “huge” cost to the country’s growth. Shanghai is tipped to suffer a 6% GDP loss if the lockdown persists in April, leading to a 2% GDP loss for the whole of China. The lockdown in Shanghai also affected the production of some known brands including Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), German auto parts giant Bosch, and Taiwan’s Pegatron (TW:4938), another iPhone assembler. Offshore Yuan and China H-shares After trending downward for the previous 7 months, news of the extreme lockdowns prompted the USDCNH to break upwards and out of its channel. The USDCNH, at this point, doesn’t have a clear path back to its previous territory. Conversely, the China H-shares index saw a reversal of fortune on March 16. The China H-shares index follows Chinese incorporated companies which are traded on exchanges outside the country. The boost may have come from investors realising that China would be unlikely to face sanction from the US after failing to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine more forcibly in the beginning. GDP slowdown The latest developments in China are widely expected to take a toll on the economy that is already battered by the slowdown in the real estate sector and other downward risks. Everbright Securities recently warned that Beijing’s move to cling to its zero-COVID strategy could knock 10 percentage points out of China’s GDP on a quarterly basis in the first quarter. Natixis, meanwhile, expects the lockdowns and transport restrictions to slash 1.8 percentage points from China’s first-quarter GDP. Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist at Capital Economics, in late March warned that "the economy is in the midst of its most abrupt downturn since early 2020.” China is set to release its quarterly GDP data on Monday, April 18.
by BlackBull_Markets
Long Emerging Markets as the World DeDollarization BloomsAll the empires and dynasties I studied rose and declined in a classic Big Cycle that has clear markers that allow us to see where we are in it. This Big Cycle produces swings between 1) peaceful and prosperous periods of great creativity and productivity that raise living standards a lot and 2) depression, revolution, and war periods when there is a lot of fighting over wealth and power and a lot of destruction of wealth, life, and other things we cherish
AMEX:EEMLong
by noam_chom
2
Are investors bullish on Chinese stocks again?A raft of regulations targeting a number of sectors — from technology to real estate and education — have hammered Chinese stocks late last year and into 2022, and although many economists remain bullish on Chinese stocks’ potential, Beijing’s relationship with the Kremlin is now weighing on investor appetite for Chinese shares. On Friday, April 1, Shanghai’s SSE Composite Index tumbled 5.8% year on year, and is down 9.6% from the start of the year. The SZSE Component Index, the benchmark index of the tech-heavy Shenzhen Stock Exchange, is also down 13.2% year over year on Friday, and 17.3% lower year-to-date. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which tracks Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong, likewise tanked 31.9% from last year as of Friday, and down 8% year-to-date. 2021 in retrospect In 2021, Chinese companies were hit with regulatory changes as Beijing sought to weed out anti-competitive behavior, online gaming addiction, excessive childcare and education costs, and eliminate other risks in the private sector. Beijing’s crackdown on the tech and financial technology sector led to the record fine of over 18 billion yuan (around $3 billion) on Alibaba (NYSE:BABA), the transition of Alibaba’s mobile payments arm Ant Group into a financial holding company and a raft of rules aimed at data security and anti-monopoly, among others. The government also targeted the education sector last year, launching sweeping rules that upended for-profit tutoring companies. New rules aimed at protecting minors also took a toll on the operations and revenue of big gaming companies like Tencent Holdings (HKG:0700) and NetEase (NASDAQ:NTES). Towards the end of last year, the vulnerability of China’s property sector came to light as China Evergrande's (HKG:3333) massive debt pileup of more than $300 billion highlighted the risks of the country’s highly-leveraged real estate sector that many fear would lead to a wider contagion affecting the country's financial industry and the global markets. These factors led to a sell-off of Chinese stocks at home and in the US, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (INDEXNASDAQ: HXC), which tracks 98 of China's biggest US-listed firms, posting its sharpest drop since the financial crisis of 2008 in March after reaching an all-time high in February 2021. As of writing, the HXC is trading lower than its 2008 peak after retracing approximately 70% of the gains it made since its 2008 bottom. Booting Chinese stocks from US exchanges Geopolitical tensions and data security concerns prompted the US Securities and Exchange Commission to tighten its auditing rules on Chinese companies listed on US bourses. This threatens the US listing status of companies like KFC operator Yum China Holdings (NYSE:YUMC), Twitter-like Weibo (NASDAQ:WB), Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU), and iQIYI (NASDAQ:IQ). Even before these firms were added to the SEC’s “provisional list” of companies that are found to be violating the US Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act, the US has already booted several Chinese companies — including China’s big three telecommunications companies — over the past year, citing data security concerns and other alleged violations. Bullish on Chinese stocks Despite uncertainties over the outlook for China’s regulatory environment in the coming years, some global banks and economists including Bernstein, Credit Suisse and Goldman Sachs remain bullish on Chinese stocks. Credit Suisse upgraded its outlook on China, noting that values may be depressed, while Goldman Sachs underscored the investability of Chinese assets due to the liberalization and reform measures in the Chinese capital markets, which according to the bank backs its view that China equity is an asset class “that is too big, too growthy, and too vibrant to ignore.” Geopolitical woes, COVID-19 risks remain However, some economists are polarized on their outlook on Chinese stocks due to lingering geopolitical tensions and the resurgence of COVID-19 cases that recently prompted lockdowns in two of the country's most populous cities. Reports highlighting Beijing’s relationship with Russia might be reducing investor appetite for Chinese stocks. Beijing has refused to back a global condemnation of the Kremlin’s military actions against Ukraine, refusing to describe the attacks as an invasion. US-listed Chinese companies have lost over $1.1 trillion in market value in recent weeks due to these concerns and Asian Corporate Governance Association’s Jamie Allen told CNBC over a week ago that the delisting of US-listed Chinese firms could come in the next two to three years.
NASDAQ:HXC
by BlackBull_Markets
Interesting Tencent fractal repetitions This fractal is something I noticed back in Sept and at the time I just found the coincidence funny and didn't take it too seriously, I wish I had though, because it would have been a great short! Basically I took the rally starting from the bottom in Mar 2020 and then flipped it upside down and moved it over so now the peak in Feb 2021 is the current bottom. It was for these reasons I was getting bullish on China when Tencent hit 45 and I was shocked when it tanked to 38, thinking the whole pattern was now broken. I admit that the news they were pumping out a the time even got to me and I didn't take advantage of the wall street manipulation. Now going forward, it would again be funny if it follows the rally projection here. I think it is unlikely that it'll follow it exactly, but who knows at this point? If it does, watch out for that peak in the summer of 2023. This is just more proof to me though that fractals can be a very useful tool in predicting the movement of a stock and you have to experience it unfold before you to believe in this kind of analysis.
OTC:TCEHY
by Lynxys