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Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) To Hit 6,124 First, Then 8,660SSE had a rally from 2005 to 2007 establishing the all-time high of CNY 6,124. After that, the price had built a weird corrective structure with ups and downs fading in magnitude over a very long period of time. It took 17 years to complete the giant contracting triangle (white ABCDE marks). The pattern was broken to the upside this summer. This is the first harbinger of possible reversal and potential rally. The confirmation we wait is the breakup of the peak of wave D beyond CNY 3,724 The conservative target for the upcoming rally is located at the all-time high of CNY 6,124 The ultimate target is set at the equal distance of blue wave (A) in blue wave (C) at CNY 8,660
SSE:000001Long
by aibek
IO Weekly Technicals Review [2024/42]: IO Reversal Deepens SGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) Index Futures (“SGX IO Futures”) fell last week for a second week in a row, closing USD 4.15/ton lower by Friday. SGX IO Futures opened at USD 105.85/ton on 14/Oct (Mon) and closed at USD 101.70/ton on 18/Oct (Fri). Prices briefly touched a weekly high of USD 109.05/ton on 14/Oct (Mon) and a low of USD 99.30/ton on 17/Oct (Thu). It traded in a range of USD 9.75/ton during the week, which was smaller than the prior week. Prices traded below the pivot point of USD 108.10/ton for the entire week but managed to hold support above the S1 pivot point at 101.15. Volume peaked on 17/Oct (Thu) as Iron Ore prices declined despite the announcement of expanded housing stimulus measures. SGX Iron Ore Futures Fundamentals in Summary Further measures to support the housing industry in China were announced on 17/Oct (Thu). The measures included widened support under the “white list” program to 4 trillion Yuan. PBoC started the week with a 25 bps cut to the 5-year loan prime rate and a 25 basis point cut to the 1-year loan prime rate offering additional easing measures. Despite an early rally, IO pared gains by the end of the day. China's GDP growth in Q3 was 0.9%, falling short of analyst expectations but exceeding the 0.5% growth recorded in Q2, which was revised downward. Annual GDP growth reached 4.6%, significantly below the 5% target. IO China Portside inventories rose by 1.89M tons to 149.73 million tons last week. The increase was driven by significantly higher arrivals and low pace of pickup due to slower restocking. Based on seasonality, SGX IO Futures Nov contract trades 3.5% below its last 5-year average (USD 105.58/ton). Seasonal performance also suggests there could be a price dip with a low in the next couple of weeks. Short-Term Moving Averages Signal Reversal of Bullish Trend The 9-day moving average is continuing its downward trend and marked a bearish crossover on 21/Oct (Mon). Last week, the price held support above the S1 pivot point but faced rejection at the P pivot point on 21/Oct (Mon). Long-Term Averages Signal Bearish Trend Price fell below the 100-day moving average on 17/Oct (Thu). Despite reaching highs above this level, price has failed to close above the MA. MACD Points to Downturn, RSI Flat MACD signals an ongoing bearish trend since 16/Oct (Wed) with the distance between long and short-term MA continuing to expand as of 21/Oct (Mon). RSI is at the mid-point level of 49.5 signaling neutral trend. Volatility Eases, Fibonacci 50% Maintained Support Last Week Volatility briefly edged up in the middle of last week but now continues to decline and has reached the lowest level in October. The 50% Fibonacci level was tested last week but managed to maintain support. With a continued downward trend, the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 97.55 is the next major support level to watch if price declined below 50%. Selling Pressure Dominates, Price Gap Likely to be Tested This Week Heavy selling pressure dominates IO trading according to the Accumulation/Distribution indicator (A/D). Price trades at a high volume node which was dominated by sell volume and below a low volume valley which could be tested during the week. The bullish flag failed to maintain last week as prices fell further instead of consolidating. Hypothetical Trade Setup Iron Ore prices continued to decline last week as the expanded stimulus measures disappointed market expectations once again. Bearish trend in IO continues as fundamentals signal more pain in store and short-term MA signaled a bearish crossover. We propose a hypothetical trade set up of selling SGX IO November Futures Contract at USD 101.2/ton with a stop at USD 104.05/ton and target at USD 97.5/ton resulting in reward-to-risk ratio of 1.30x. Entry: USD 101.2/ton Target: USD 104.05/ton Stop Loss: USD 97.5/ton Profit at Target: USD 370/lot ((101.2-97.5) x 100) Loss at Stop: USD 285/lot ((101.2-104.05) x 100) Reward to Risk: 1.30x This calculation excludes transaction costs comprising of clearing broker fees and exchange clearing fees. The SGX requires a minimum initial margin of USD 1,232/lot and a maintenance margin of USD 1,120/lot. DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
SGX:FEF2!Short
by MintBulkCommods
2
$CNGDPYY - China's GDP (Q3/2024)ECONOMICS:CNGDPYY Q3/2024 source: National Bureau of Statistics of China -The Chinese economy expanded 4.6% YoY in Q3 of 2024, compared with market forecasts of 4.5% and a 4.7% rise in Q2. It marked the slowest annual growth rate since Q1 2023, amid persistent property weakness, shaky domestic demand, deflation risks, and trade frictions with the West. The latest figures came as Beijing had intensified stimulus measures to boost economic recovery and rebuild confidence. In September alone, there were some positive signs: industrial output and retail sales both saw their largest increases in four months, and the urban jobless rate fell to a three-month low of 5.1%. On the trade front, however, exports rose the least in five months while imports were sluggish. In the first three quarters of the year, the economy grew by 4.8%, compared with China’s full-year target of around 5%. During the period, fixed investment rose by 3.4% yoy, topping consensus of 3.3%.
ECONOMICS:CNGDPYY
by Mr_J__fx
XAUUSD | Market outlookGold Reserve Diversification: At the LBMA conference, central bank representatives shared that gold purchases are driven by financial and strategic goals. US Election Impact: Uncertainty over the upcoming presidential elections, with Trump and Harris closely tied in polls, is prompting banks to hedge risks. Geopolitical Risks: Tensions in the Middle East are also boosting gold, with Israel expressing readiness to target Iran's military infrastructure. Price Trends: Long-term trend: Upward, aiming to break the historical high of 2685.00 . Potential targets: 2750.00 and 2810.00 if consolidation succeeds. Support and Correction: If the price drops to 2602.00 , long positions toward 2685.00 are favourable. A breakout below 2602.00 could trigger a correction targeting 2546.00 and 2471.00 . Medium-term trend: Correction: Last week’s correction did not reach key support at 2575.61–2564.61 . If a reversal occurs, the price could rise to 2685.61 and potentially 2712.70–2701.70 . Correction Scenario: If another correction develops, the price may revisit 2575.61–2564.61 , followed by growth toward 2625.00 and 2685.00 .
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by DynamicCapital-FX
$CNIRYY -China's CPI (September/2024)ECONOMICS:CNIRYY Inflation Data (September/2024) source: National Bureau of Statistics of China -China’s annual inflation rate stood at 0.4% in September 2024, below market forecasts and August’s figure of 0.6%. This was the 8th month of consumer inflation but was the lowest print since June, highlighting the need for more policy support from Beijing to address growing deflation risks. Non-food prices declined by 0.2%, following a 0.2% rise in August as the cost of transport shrank further (-4.1% vs -2.7%) due to lower crude oil prices. Also, housing prices edged down (-0.1% vs flat reading) amid government efforts to further regulate the property market. Meanwhile, cost slowed for health (1.2% vs 1.3%) and education (0.6% vs 1.3%). On the food side, prices rose for the second month, with the rate of increase the fastest in 20 months (3.3% vs 2.8%). Core consumer prices, excluding food and energy costs, increased 0.1% yoy, the smallest rise since February 2021, after a 0.3% gain in August. Monthly, the CPI was unchanged, compared with consensus and August’s print of a 0.4% rise.
ECONOMICS:CNIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
FXI Still Time to Capitalize on the China Stimulus RallyThe recent surge in Chinese stocks following China’s central bank stimulus announcement signals a promising opportunity for those looking at the iShares China Large-Cap ETF. The stimulus package, part of a series of aggressive moves from Chinese policymakers, reflects a significant shift in their approach to economic management. For years, China hesitated to implement large-scale stimulus measures, fearing the long-term risks. However, the latest actions show that this cautious mindset has been abandoned, with the government now prioritizing immediate economic recovery. This newfound willingness to deploy powerful monetary tools suggests that China’s central bank is prepared to act decisively to combat the economic pressures the country is facing. With this level of commitment, it’s reasonable to expect that the stimulus will have a meaningful impact, potentially accelerating growth in key sectors. The iShares China Large-Cap ETF, which tracks some of the largest Chinese companies, stands to benefit significantly from this shift. As these companies often reflect the broader health of China’s economy, investors could see strong gains in the near term as the effects of the stimulus ripple through the markets. Given the central bank's proactive measures and the potential for further interventions, the iShares China Large-Cap ETF presents a compelling opportunity for bullish investors who want to capitalize on China's economic rebound.
AMEX:FXILong
by TopgOptions
Copper Pulls Back as China Optimism FadesCopper extended the August rebound into autumn and reached three-month highs, helped by the Fed’s jumbo rate cut and massive stimulus from Chinese authorities aiming to prop the economy and the property sector. However the measures do little to address the structural problems and the real estate market is unlikely to return to its former glory, while the lack of follow through on the fiscal front this week caused prior optimism to subside. Furthermore, the Fed has struck a more cautious approach towards further easing and Friday’s strong jobs report supported the reserved commentary. Markets have now priced out previous aggressive bets for 75 bps of cuts this year, aligning with the Fed’s 50 bps projections. Copper pulls back as a result, threatening the EMA200 (black line) and the 50% Fibonacci of the recent recovery. A breach would pause the upside bias, send the non-ferrous metal into the daily Ichimoku Cloud and expose it to the ascending trend line from the August lows. Deeper correction however does not look easy under the current technical and fundamental backdrop. There are still hopes for additional Chinese stimulus (potentially within the weekend), while prospects of US soft-landing and easier monetary policies in major economies can support higher prices. So do the AI boom and the green energy transition. Copper tries to defend the EMA200 that maintains its recovery momentum. This will allow it to push again towards 4.791, but we are cautious around further strength at this stage. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”) (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
FX:COPPERLong
by FXCM
JD.com (JD): Massive 97% Rally—What's Next?We mentioned Chinese stocks a while ago, and finally, they're starting to pay off—big time. We bought shares of JD.com back in July, and after a small dip, the stock soared an impressive 97% in just 65 days. Shares of U.S.-listed Chinese companies are gaining momentum, fueled by continued stimulus efforts. September's PMI data beat expectations despite a decline in factory activity, which has further bolstered hopes for increased stimulus. Over the past week, JD.com's stock surged following the People’s Bank of China's aggressive monetary easing measures. The central bank reduced the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 50 basis points, bringing it down to 9.5%. This move will inject around 1 trillion yuan (approximately $140 billion) into the financial system. The increased liquidity gives banks more capital to lend, easing financial pressures on businesses like JD.com that rely heavily on consumer spending and economic confidence. JD.com, often considered a barometer for China’s domestic consumption, has benefited significantly from this shift in sentiment, with investors betting that further stimulus measures could lead to increased consumer spending on e-commerce platforms. From a technical perspective, there's not much left to say—we took some profits on JD.com, as this parabolic rise could either continue or see a pullback before another leg higher. All indications point towards further gains for JD.com, as it has smashed through all resistance and trend channels with remarkable strength. Our stop loss is set at break even, and we’re letting this trade continue to run.
NASDAQ:JDLong
by freeguy_by_wmc
3
Who Gets Rich in China's Market Rally?On September 24th, China announced an unprecedented fiscal stimulus, aiming to rescue its ailing economy. As soon as the news got out, China’s stock market staged a huge rally. The Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) index moved from below 2,800 on September 24th to close at 3,336.5 on September 30th, up 19% in a week. One-month return for the SSE and notable Chinese stocks are listed here: • SSE: +17.5% • Yonghui Supermarkets: +59.9% • JD: +51.3% • BABA: +32.5% • BIDU: +25.5% China's stock market is closed on October 1-7 to observe the National Day holiday. Social media is floating a lot of fairytales about who made a big fortune in the last week of September. Here are two of the stories: The first one is about MINISO, a boutique Chinese department store chain with over 5,000 stores worldwide. It is listed on the NYSE under the stock symbol $MNSO. On September 23rd, MINISO announced that it would acquire 2.67 billion shares of troubled supermarket chain Yonghui Supermarkets (601933.SH), at RMB 2.25 per share. The next day, China announced the stimulus package, and all stock prices shot up. On September 30th, Yonghui closed at RMB 3.63, up 1.38 yuan or 61.3% from a week ago. With the acquisition of 2.67 billion shares, MINISO stands to make a profit of RMB 3.68 billion, equivalent to US$200 million (at USD/RMB exchange rate of 7.09). MINISO could sit on the nice profit for three months and do nothing. It does not have to remit payment for the acquisition until Q1 2025. Is this just good luck or what? The second story is about Michael Burry of Scion Capital, a Wall Street outcast made famous by Michael Lewis’ bestseller, the Big Short, and the hit movie with the same title, with Christian Bale portraying Burry. Recent SEC filing shows that as of the end of Q2 2024, Scion’s largest stock holding is BABA, accounting for 22% of its fund. JD and BIDU are its fourth and fifth holding, respectively. Each is for about a 12.5% share. For an unknown reason, the Big Short turned into a Big Long with nearly half of its investment concentrating on Chinese stocks. With a timing precision, Burry scooped them up cheap just before they popped. Is this superb stock picking skill, or just luck? Would the China rally continue when the market resumes trading on Tuesday? Goldman Sachs just released a research note, saying: Unless China does QE now, the current market rally will crash and burn, and the economy will be a crater. If China does do QE, oil will soar, and gold and bitcoin will be orders of magnitude higher. While this is presented as two alternative paths, there is only one way to go, in all practical purpose. After going all out last month with unprecedented fiscal stimulus, the Chinese government could not afford to see the stock market and the housing market to tank again. It really needs to finish the job by injecting financial stimulus into the economy. Now that the market sensation has already turned positive, government spending would trigger consumer spending as well as investment from the private sector. Such a multiplier effect could lift the Chinese economy higher. Happy Trading!
SSE:000001Long
by JimHuangChicago
CNH: Chinese Currency Could Return to the 6.3-6.9 LevelCME: USD/Offshore RMB Futures ( CME:CNH1! ) Last week, I discussed how China’s huge stimulus package, coupled with the Fed’s supersized rate cut, could improve global energy demand and lift crude oil higher. As soon as the stimulus was announced, China’s stock market staged a huge rally. The Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) index moved from below 2,800 on September 24th to close at 3,336.5 on September 30th, up 19% in a week. One-month return for the SSE and notable Chinese stocks are listed here: • SSE: +17.5% • Yonghui Supermarkets: +59.9% • JD: +51.3% • BABA: +32.5% • BIDU: +25.5% China's stock market is closed on October 1st-7th for observation of the National Day holiday. Would the China rally continue when the market resumes trading on Tuesday? Goldman Sachs just released a research note, saying: Unless China does QE now, the current market rally will crash and burn, and the economy will be a crater. If China does do QE, oil will soar, and gold and bitcoin will be orders of magnitude higher. While this is presented as two alternative paths, there is only one way to go, in all practical purpose. After going all out last month with unprecedented fiscal stimulus, the Chinese government could not afford to see the stock market and the housing market to tank again. It really needs to finish the job by injecting fiscal stimulus into the economy. Now that the market sensation has already turned positive, government spending would trigger consumer spending as well as investment from the private sector. Such a multiplier effect could lift the Chinese economy higher. Everything looks bright, with one small problem: China-listed stocks are off-limited to most foreign investors due to financial regulations and the foreign currency control regime. China’s currency could strengthen as its economy recovers I hold the view that the China’s currency could appreciate as its economy improves. Outside of China, investors could invest in USD/RMB futures to hitch the economic hike. To start the discussion, let’s first make some clarification to the confusing terms in the FX market. The USD/RMB exchange rate is quoted as the number of RMB per dollar. The current USD/RMB rate is 7.09, meaning each dollar could exchange for 7.09 RMB. When the RMB appreciates against the dollar, the price quote would get lower, not higher. For example, the rate 6.50 means you now need 6.50 RMB to get one USD dollar. In RMB terms, this is 0.59 Yuan less than the current USD/RMB rate 7.09. In this scenario, the RMB gains value relative to the dollar. While the RMB appreciation equates to the dollar depreciation, in charts, the lines representing USD/RMB and the dollar index should move in the same direction. • For dollar index, the line moving up means dollar gaining value. • For the USD/RMB, the line moving up means the dollar appreciating against the RMB. • These two things usually occur at the same time. In 2023, as China’s economy did not rebound after the end of the pandemic closedown, the RMB depreciated more than 10% against the dollar, sending the rate from 6.69 to 7.37. In 2024, the two lines diverged due to different economic forces. • Dollar index moves down with the market expectation of the Fed cutting rates, reducing the interest earned from holding dollar asset. • The USD/RMB quote moves up because of the slowdown in China’s economy. In my opinion, the two lines will converge again, both moving down in Q4. Dollar index will get lower as the Fed continues rate cuts. The USD/RMB quote will also go lower, as improvement in China’s economy would strengthen the country’s currency. For someone with a bullish view of RMB, he could establish a short position in CME USD/Offshore RMB Futures ( NYSE:CNH ). Remember, shorting means the expectation of the quote to go lower, which actually means RMB appreciating against the dollar. The contract has a notional value of $100,000. At Friday closing price of 7.061, each December contract (CNHZ4) is worth RMB 706,100. CME Group requires an initial margin of RMB 14,000 for each CNH contract, long or short, at the time of writing. Hypothetically, if CNH bounced back to 6.70, its previous high in January 2023, the quote difference of 361 pips (=7061-6700) would produce a gain of RMB 36,100 (=0.361x100,000) for a short position. The risk of shorting the CNH is that the Chinese government did not follow through with a fiscal stimulus, and the market rally is short lived. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME:CNH1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
CSIQ bullish over multiyear period, Battery Energy Storage upsidCSIQ may be weak in the short term, but the price leave plenty of potenial upside for a multiyear period. -deep below tangible book value. price under 20 now and tangible book value near 40. -2.87 eps next year '25 expected, and 10.00 potential over next 5 years on a under 20$ stock -62% ownership in CSI solar subsidiary which trades in china , offsets all or most of csiq debt 5 year price target potentials -tangible book level, stock could initially spike to at least tangible book level (deepvalue) -as EPS rises, stock could trade at some multiple of earnings , 20-30 multiple on 10 eps? On BESS and CSI/CSIQ",credit perplexity.ai search Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) are becoming increasingly important in the renewable energy sector, and Canadian Solar Inc. (CSIQ) along with its subsidiary CSI Solar are well-positioned to benefit from the industry's growth over the next 5 years. Here's an overview of the situation: ## BESS Industry Growth The battery energy storage market is experiencing rapid expansion due to several factors: - Increasing adoption of renewable energy sources - Growing need for grid stability and peak demand management - Declining costs of battery technology - Supportive government policies and incentives ## Canadian Solar's Position Canadian Solar, through its subsidiary CSI Energy Storage, has made significant strides in the BESS market: 1. **Product Development**: In 2022, the company launched its proprietary battery storage product called SolBank for utility-scale applications . 2. **Manufacturing Capacity**: CSI Energy Storage announced plans to expand its battery manufacturing capacity from 2.5 GWh to 10 GWh by the end of 2023 . 3. **Project Pipeline**: As of Q2 2022, CSI Energy Storage's system integration pipeline reached 11 GWh, including 861 MWh under long-term service agreements and 1.9 GWh under construction or contracted . ## Benefits for CSIQ and CSI Solar Over the next 5 years, CSIQ and CSI Solar are likely to benefit from the BESS industry growth in several ways: 1. **Increased Revenue**: The company expects strong growth in its battery energy storage solutions, with shipments anticipated to increase by 500% compared to the previous year . 2. **Market Expansion**: CSI Solar is expanding into new markets, including residential energy storage and power electronics, which will help diversify its revenue streams . 3. **Synergies**: The growth in battery storage solutions will enhance synergies with the company's battery storage project development business . 4. **Competitive Advantage**: The SolBank product is positioned as one of the most bankable and competitive integrated battery storage solutions in the market . 5. **Long-term Contracts**: CSI Energy Storage's pipeline includes long-term service agreements, providing stable revenue streams . 6. **Industry Leadership**: Continuous R&D investment and technological innovation are helping CSI Solar maintain its leading position in the market . 7. **Financial Performance**: CSI Solar projects strong profitability, with net profits expected to reach up to RMB 1.40 billion in the first half of 2024, marking two consecutive quarters of growth . As the solar-plus-storage market continues to grow, Canadian Solar and CSI Solar are well-positioned to capitalize on this trend. The company's integrated approach, combining solar panel manufacturing with energy storage solutions, provides a competitive edge in the evolving renewable energy landscape. Citations: www.cpuc.ca.gov www.tipranks.com www.pvtime.org investors.canadiansolar.com seia.org sistinesolar.com www.csisolar.com www.sap.com
NASDAQ:CSIQLong
by ValuePig
9
China Stocks: What to Expect When Markets Reopen Stocks in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong took off last week and continued their climb on Monday, posting their best single-day rally in 16 years. This surge came after several announcements from Beijing aimed at boosting the country’s economy. But now, The Shanghai Stock Exchange will be closed from Oct. 1 to Oct. 7 for China’s National Day celebrations, and Hong Kong’s market will also shut on Oct. 1. However, U.S.-listed China ETFs will still be trading, so when the Chinese exchanges reopen on Oct. 7, we could see big moves as global investors get ahead of the Chinese market. China’s stock market is known for its wild swings, mainly because retail investors make up about two-thirds of the trading. That means we might see some significant volatility once the markets open back up.
NASDAQ:HXC
by BlackBull_Markets
CNY/USD Trend since 06 2007. Channel. Reversal zone.Logarithm. Time frame 1 week. At the moment, the currency is stronger than the dollar. The main trend is a descending channel. The price is in it now. Secondary trend — breakout of the descending trend line. Price growth to the median of the channel, and in case of its breakthrough, to the resistance. If not, then a pullback to the lower zone of the channel. Local trend — The nearest events and news background, which can affect (not necessarily) locally (movements to the median of the channel, i.e., the middle, if it is positive) on the yuan rate. This, in less than 1 month, namely from October 22 to 24, 2024 will be held 7.16 XVI BRICS summit (short for Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) in Russia in Kazan. Line graph for visualization.
Long
by SpartaBTC
2
MCL: One-Two Punch Could Lift Crude Oil to Higher GroundNYMEX: Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures ( NYMEX:MCL1! ) On September 18th, the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rate by a supersized 50 basis points, ushering a long-awaited monetary easing cycle. Six days later, on September 24th, China introduced a broad stimulus package to revive its economy. It includes cutting interest rates, reducing bank reserve requirements, supporting the property sector, and injecting liquidity into the stock market. Specifically, • The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, cut its 7-day reverse repurchase rate to 1.5% from 1.7% • The PBOC slashed the reserve requirement ratio of financial institutions by 0.5% • The PBOC lowered home mortgage downpayment requirements to 15%; previously, those buying houses other than primary residence were required to put down 25% • Separately, the PBOC would advise banks to lower mortgage interest rate by 0.5% • The PBOC also announced a new RMB $1 trillion long-term credit facility (equivalent to US$143 billion). It allows financial institutions to use their stocks, bonds and ETF funds as collateral to obtain funding from the PBOC. The use of fund is specifically earmarked for credit lending to publicly traded companies for stock buyback Each of these policies is a major stimulus measure. Putting together, they have the potential to reshape the economic outlook for China, and for the rest of the world as well. Following the announcement, Chinese stock markets clocked their best week in 16 years as the CSI 300 rallied 15.7%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index recorded a weekly gain of 12.75%. On Friday, the CSI 300 climbed 4.47% to close at 3,703.68, its highest level in a year, while the HSI rose 3.32% to 20,586.94, its highest since February 2023. On Monday, September 30th, China’s SSE Composite Index rallied 8.06%, closing at 3,336.50. This marks a nine-day winning streak, its best day since September 2008 and its highest point since August 2023. In 2024, China’s economy has slowed significantly. Last week, China released its industrial profit data for August, which saw a 17.8% plunge year on year. On a year-to-date basis, profits at large industrial firms grew at 0.5% to 4.65 trillion yuan ($663.47 billion) for the first eight months, down from 3.6%. However, China’s supersized monetary policies could help its economy turn a corner. It is highly expected that China’s Ministry of Finance will follow suit to announce new fiscal stimulus and add more ammunition to fuel economic growth. Together, the extraordinary measures installed by the Top 2 economies, which account for 40% of global GDP, could help improve the global economy in a meaningful way. WTI Crude Oil: Higher Demand from Economic Growth While it is still too early to quantify how much the global economy would benefit from these stimulus measures, we could expect higher industrial output from the government credit extension and the lower business cost of capital. The potential impact could be huge for stocks, bonds, foreign exchange and commodities. Today, my analysis concentrates on crude oil. The Fed rate cut and China Stimulus package both exceeded market expectations. These are game changers big enough to reverse the declining trend of crude oil prices. Recent escalation of Middle East conflict would only add to the uncertainty of oil supply. In my opinion, WTI could reclaim the previous levels of $76, $83 and $89, consequently. The expected stimulus from China’s Ministry of Finance and the November 6th FOMC rate cut could support the upward trend if they meet or exceed market expectations. The recent CFTC Commitment of Traders report confirms a shift to the long positions: • As of September 24th, total open interest (OI) of WTI futures was 2,242,432 contracts • Managed Money held 210,469 long and 48,541 short, a 4.3-to-1 ratio • Compared to the previous week, the long positions increased by 24,734, while the shorts decreased by 3,969 contracts; this shows a bullish view building up For someone with a bullish view of crude oil, he could establish a long position in NYMEX Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures ( GETTEX:MCL ). The contract has a notional value of 100 barrels. At 1/10 the size of benchmark WTI Crude Oil contracts, Micro WTI futures offer the same robust trading transparency and price discovery with smaller margin requirements. At Friday closing price of $68.63, each November contract (MCLX) is worth $6,863. CME Group requires an initial margin of $596 for each MCL contract, long or short. Hypothetically, if WTI bounced back to $76.88, its previous high on August 5th, the price increase of $8.25 would produce a gain of $825 (=8.25x100) for a long position. The risk of buying crude oil is that the follow-up government stimulus packages were less than market expectations, which could undermine the growth forecast. To hedge the downside risk, an experienced trader could consider the use of put options on WTI crude oil futures. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
1
Technical Analysis on JD.comJD.com has experienced a strong bearish trend since February 2021, reaching its lowest point in 2024, near the support area of $20, with an overall loss of about 80% of its value. By conducting a volume analysis using the Volume Profile of the entire history, we can see that JD.com was recently rejected from a significant support level, POC 1, around the $25 price zone, also breaking the descending trendline. This provides a strong signal for a potential reversal. In a short time, the stock has reached another important volumetric area, POC 2, which could act as the first resistance level. At this point, we might observe the first reaction of price rejection. Considering the broader momentum, particularly the economic situation in China, the stock may quickly overcome this resistance. If JD.com moves above POC 2, it would likely face few obstacles in reaching the next resistance level (R1) just below $70, given the low trading volume in this price range.
NASDAQ:JD
by Giovanni_Bandini
2
BTC breaks above 65,000On the back of a larger than expected FED rate cut of .50 risk assets breathe a sigh of relief long held in since the rate cut rumors of Q2 2024. The gains were cemented by a cooler than expected PCE of .1% as opposed to the expected .2% this is the FED’s preferred measure of inflation putting some level of ease to risk asset investor that the FED may turn face on the easing of monetary policies. If this continues a fear people have a of 70’s style inflation issue will be put to rest. China also joined the party will an AGGRESSIVE stimulus packages direct to the people and promises to do more if need be. They also encouraged stock buy backs, if you know anything about the investment market in China the options for quality investment are very limited as the Real Estate market was the main choice but since the Evergrande collapse Chinese investor have had little to no choice. This makes a scenario for crypto investment as an alternative to stocks but the CCP obviously like control so we will if that plays out. How this affect Crypto bros the short of it is when global liquidity goes up so do assets especially when people get cash in hand example 2020-2021 when everyone and their dog was investing. Now while stimulus direct to consumers is like throwing gas on the fire the FED rate cuts are like throwing a log on embers. The rate cuts take about a year to affect the general economy but the immediate effect is bank to bank loan rate i.e it’s cheaper to take on debt. Now with the rise of NASDAQ:MSTR strategy with other companies this will make it cheaper for companies to take on debt so companies like Metaplanet and other yet to disclose will find the “BTC Yield” more significant to offset loan cost. And lastly all risk assets benefit from low rate environments. In sum NFA but I would buy CRYPTOCAP:BTC as always and load up on alts while BTC out perform my mix ideally 75% BTC 15% alts and 10% cash for dippy dips
Long
by TradeBroInc
Alibaba (BABA): Stagnation Phase or Momentum Boost?We are currently experiencing a phase of stagnation with Alibaba, as the stock remains in a new accumulation phase after breaking out of the previous one. The price might retest the Point-of-Control along with the trendline that was broken during the breakout, potentially providing a good momentum boost. Despite the sideways movement, our position remains profitable. From a long-term perspective, our entry looks strong, with a 10% stop-loss from our entry point. The upside potential for Alibaba is significant, given how far the stock is from its historical highs. The main concern with Alibaba is the jurisdiction risk, as it is a Chinese stock and subject to influences from China, which adds a layer of risk not present with American stocks. Nevertheless, as long as the price stays above $72.38, the outlook remains positive. Losing this level would be unfavorable and could indicate further downside risk. In summary, we remain optimistic about Alibaba's potential, keeping a close watch on the key support levels to manage risk effectively.
NYSE:BABALong
by freeguy_by_wmc
CN50USD to continue in the rally?CHN50 - 24h expiry There is no indication that the rally is coming to an end. Although we remain bullish overall, a correction is possible with plenty of room to move lower without impacting the trend higher. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels. A move through 13200 will confirm the bullish momentum. The measured move target is 13500. We look to Buy at 12900 (stop at 12740) Our profit targets will be 13300 and 13500 Resistance: 13200 / 13300 / 13500 Support: 13000 / 12900 / 12750 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:CN50USDLong
by OANDA
CHINA GOING FOR IT! Until Christmas? #BlowoffTop and Recession!Breakout and retest for RSI, China breakingout after 6 long years. This will have implications on every market, they were waiting for the FED to pull the trigger and now they can go. Game on! #JD is going, Commoditties will go for it, except #oil maybe. But more important, #Bitcoin will have the #BLOWOFFTOP I was looking for. That´s the News GOODS... The BAD News is, Recession or Crisis after it. December or March 25´as late.
HSI:HSILong
by PickleBiit
Bullish IQ , online video streaming in chinaIQ has been drowned and punished for a light q2 june earning report. seasonally/historically q2 has been the lightest quarter for past 3 years. the best quarters are toward the winter holidays. Current valuation is very attractive low PE, low price to sales. Balance sheet has some debt, so its not excessively cheap in the balance sheet. its all about the earnings growth potential. This year forward earnings is expected to be .24 cents, which is fantastic for a once 2.00 stock recently. 5 year potential eps is over 1.00, so for me this is a keep for long time. Hard to say what a growing online streamer could be worth when bullishness kicks in and future growth starts to be anticipated. 20 pe? 30 pe? one can never predict this. All we control is buying value when we get a lot of weight for money paid. RISKs- continued deflation in china, more competition. Currency devaluation and geopolitics still a major cloud. Yuan is rising now, but if real estate remains a burden, currency devaluation and increased stimulus might hurt the currency and total net returns to foreign investors. Not advice for you, but I like the stock for me. Stands out on my ranking sheets.
NASDAQ:IQLong
by ValuePig