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Big weekend leading up to Jackson HoleWow! Markets are coming to a head fast! S&P futures have been low volume and ripe with volatility growth. Jackson Hole approaches and hedging / volatility futures have priced in movement to the downside. Bears are waking up from a long 1.5Y nap after feasting in March of 2020. China Tech sector continues to get pounded. Why is China Tech sector so important? Like the QQQ & Mega Caps led the S&P growth, so has the China's tech sector. The TVC:NI225 has been in decline since Feb as a result of several controversial decisions the Chinese Gov have made including the crack down on crypto and US listed companies. Last Friday the TVC:NI225 crossed over the 50/200MA death cross and a descending wedge breakout. Yesterdays close was the first close below the breakout line and last night the decline continued its breakout downward. This is important because of the gap that has formed between the S&P 500/QQQ/DIA and recently rejected the top of the TVC:NI225 descending wedge. I'm starting to think the bulls have ran out of steam and will continue to get pulled down by the declining Chinese tech sector and unwinding volatility into September that could put the markets into a 10-12% correction territory sooner than later.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SPYvsGME
BYD, China's Next Hardware GiantAccording to Wilson's report, the average price of BYD's vehicles has surpassed that of popular joint venture brand Volkswagen by about CNY 10,000. BYD is an automobile company that provides vehicles, EV batteries, semiconductors and electronics foundry services. We estimate its stock's value based on the sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) method. The company's EV and battery businesses account for most of the valuation. We consider BYD to be currently undervalued and expect a 22% upbeat. In 2020, the Chinese NEV market had a stellar performance – NIO, Xpeng and Li Auto all delivered considerable volumes of vehicles. Meanwhile, we spotlight BYD, a car maker once invested by Warren Buffett, as a best-in-class electric vehicle company. With its solid fundamentals, BYD is likely to become a major hardware conglomerate – much like Tencent or Alibaba in the consumer Internet sector. This article will examine the company's business segments, touch upon potential risks, and conduct an SOTP analysis to value its shares. Intro Wang Chuanfu incorporated BYD in 1995, inspired by the prospects of the Li-ion battery applications. Since then, he has led the company, building it into an agile manufacturing mammoth capable of starting new ventures and succeeding quickly across many fields. For one, BYD started to produce face masks in the first days of the COVID-19 outbreak and has now become the biggest mask producer worldwide. Its business segments remain the same though – those are internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, EVs, power batteries, auto semiconductors and electronics assembly services. Auto OEM BYD sells both ICE vehicles and EVs, primarily in China (but is getting more active abroad). In 2020, it sold 231,000 units of ICE cars, a year-on-year (YoY) increase of 3.8%. The parts sales accounted for a significant share of total revenue but remained less profitable. Now, BYD is full speed ahead to transform itself into an EV-based company. Because BYD didn't disclose its total ICE car sales revenue, we broke down its revenue streams and assumed the average selling price (ASP) was between CNY 100,000 to CNY 110,000. Therefore, ICE generated revenue of CNY 24 billion in 2020. We expect the ICE business will drop 10% in the next few years as the sales momentum will shift to EV. In 2022, the revenue will reach CNY 19.4 billion. With a 2x PS ratio based on Great Wall Motor and Geely Auto, the ICE business will be valued at CNY 38 billion. In the meantime, EV sales has become the most valuable business – last year, BYD sold 162,000 EVs, a YoY decrease of 12.5%. After upgrading the 'dynasty' EV series, BYD entered the middle-to-high-end market. The series adopts self-made 'blade batteries' to prevent EV from battery catching fire. The hit model 'Han,' a car somewhat similar to Tesla's Model 3 and Xpeng P7, sold 8,522 units in July, surpassing the sales volume of NIO and Xpeng. According to the 2020 financial report, BYD made CNY 24.4 billion in revenue from EV sales. We project the EV sales will increase by 100% (based on the fact that sales from January to July 2021 surpassed last year's figure) and by 25% in 2021 and 2022, respectively. We also assume the ASP will increase by 5% in 2021 and 2022 as more high-end models are delivered. For these two years, the revenue will hit CNY 51 billion and 67 billion. With a 10x 2022 PS ratio, the EV department is worth CNY 670 billion. Power battery sales is another core business for BYD alongside EVs. According to SNE research, BYD's installed capacity reached (link in Chinese) 7.8 GWh during the first half of 2021, ranking No.4 worldwide. This is 23% of CATL's installed capacity. Therefore, conservatively speaking, we estimate the market capitalization of BYD's battery division will be one-fifth of CATL's. Thus, the power battery business is worth CNY 240 billion, based on the fact that CATL's market cap had already reached CNY 1,200 billion as of August 9, 2021. BYD Semiconductors Semiconductor manufacturing is another important segment for BYD. It is set to be spun off from BYD to go public. It features auto semiconductors, which provide IGBT, smart control IC, sensors and optoelectronic semiconductors. BYD semiconductors can independently design, manufacture, package and test chips. It is the only company to achieve this in China. Based on our latest report, auto chips will be in high demand as more vehicles will be electrified in the future. As per BYD's 2020 report, the semiconductor business was valued at CNY 7.5 billion in May 2021. We believe the figure will triple while launching on the open market. It is estimated that BYD will deliver semiconductors worth up to CNY 20 billion. BYD Electronic Apart from providing high-end products, BYD also made CNY 60 billion toplines (38% of total 2020 revenue) from assembling smartphones, tablet computers and laptops. These products show low profitability similar to other electronics foundries like Hon Hai Precision. We refer to Hon Hai's 0.25x 2022 PS ratio and project 12% growth in the next two years. We calculated that BYD Electronic is valued at CNY 18 billion. To sum up, BYD is valued at CNY 988 billion. Even so, we think the estimation is a bit conservative as some assumptions aren't considered in it. BYD's EV will deploy more self-made batteries and chips, which will save a lot of costs for the company in the long term. What's more, rumors said BYD's battery had been tested by Tesla and would likely be equipped with Tesla's vehicles. This potential opportunity will significantly boost BYD's valuation in the battery division. Risks BYD's EV sales were affected by the industry's downslide in 2019 and 2020. Moreover, the EV market has been involved with intensified competition, as proved by the price slash of a few models and few companies leaving. BYD, with its comprehensive business mix, should have the means to face these challenges. Conclusion Viewed as part of the big picture, BYD is a company less profitable than some of its auto peers – one with a 2.6% net profit margin in 2020. We consider the company to have set margin improvement as a long-term goal, while also expanding in the EV battery and related battery segments. Although BYD just saw a market cap rally in the past few days, we believe it is still undervalued and has a 22% upbeat opportunity as of August 20, 2021.
OTC:BYDDFLong
by EqualOcean
$KXIN Ready for a Rally ? Merger Talk?!Scince the announcement of $KXIN that they will enter the "small Electro Vehicel" market shares are already going strong with high volume ... Now we have news about a merger and there are some rumors of possible partners in play .... technical we see some S/R flips in and we have just recently closed above another resistance ... in case we can break this resistance zone there are no doubt of a price around 5$ a share ,this is also our next bigger resistance level , after market is able to break that level we have open space all the way to 10$ a share ... Time will tell .... and always remember you are not married to the stock nor you wanna be a bag holder ;-) good luck and have a great week Trueman23
NASDAQ:KXINLong
by Trueman23
2
Niu Technologies Announces Q2 2021 Financial ResultsIn Q2 2021, the company generated CNY 944.7 million in revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 46.5%. According to Niu Technologies' Q2 2021 financial announcement: - Revenue rose by 46.5%, reaching CNY 944.7 million. - The gross profit margin was 22.7%, compared with 23.0% in the same period of 2020. - Net profit hit CNY 91.8 million, representing a 61.6% growth, and the net profit margin was 9.7%. - In Q2 2021, the company's sales volume hit 253,000 units (up 58.0%), with only 2.8% sales from overseas markets. - Among the firm's major business, the revenue of electric scooters in the domestic market recorded CNY 758 million, representing a growth of 44.9%; its overseas revenue from electric scooters hit CNY 57.7 million, increasing 1.2% compared with 2020. - The sales from low-priced models G0 and F0 represented 30.4% of total sales volume, declining from 38.2% in Q1 2021, with revenues pre scooter up 8.3% month-on-month. - At the same time, Niu Technologies' sales and marketing expenditure reached CNY 68.9 million, showing an increase of approximately 51.1%; its R&D expenses hit CNY 30.8 million, with a rise of about 28.7%. - By the end of August 16, 2021, the company's market capitalization was USD 1.7 billion (about CNY 11.0 billion), evaporating by CNY 15.4 billion.
NASDAQ:NIU
by EqualOcean
The worst is over for Chinese stocks BABAIf you are a long term investor I hope you used the panic to top up your holdings. If you are a momentum trader you still have the opportunity to ride the bounce or accumulate your position a bit later. Possible scenario for BABA but all names have something similar is as follows. I treat that panic as an exhaustion and behavioural pattern confirms that so I consider the worst is over. Personally, I played that dangerously catching falling knives and loosing hairs so my words bring some sort of hope, but from technical perspective the situation is as follows. Another option is to treat the current leg up as a retest of the previous support but usually when you have seen that sort of panic and all the papers writing the same thing - it is just over. I expect some turbulence at this resistance since bears will try to play down the move but final move is gonna be UP. The first arrow is my initial momentum play. I expect to see some kind see-saw after the first leg and the second arrow reflects my further expectations.
NYSE:BABALong
by crazywlst
The worst is over for Chinese names BIDUIf you are a long term investor I hope you used the panic to top up your holdings. If you are a momentum trader you still have the opportunity to ride the bounce or accumulate your position a bit later. Possible scenario for BIDU but all names have something similar is as follows. I treat that panic as an exhaustion and behavioural pattern confirms that so I consider the worst is over. Personally, I played that dangerously catching falling knives and loosing hairs so my words bring some sort of hope, but from technical perspective the situation is as follows. Another option is to treat the current leg up as a retest of the previous support but usually when you have seen that sort of panic and all the papers writing the same thing - it is just over. I expect some turbulence at this resistance since bears will try to play down the move but final move is gonna be UP.
NASDAQ:BIDULong
by crazywlst
2
Oil futures- Aneeka Gupta, Director, Research, WisdomTree Europe Why have declines accelerated in recent weeks? Oil price declines have been accelerated by concerns about the spread of the Delta variant in China its impact on oil demand. China being the second largest oil consumer and the largest oil importer plays a dominant role in the oil market. These concerns were fuelled by July activity data published overnight in China by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) which fell short of expectations across the board. Industrial production grew by 6.4% (1 National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) ) year-on-year (yoy), marking the lowest rate of growth in a year. Fixed asset investment excluding rural growth slowed to 10.3%1 yoy in July, from 12.6%1 in June, below the consensus 11.3%1 which also highlights lack of governmental support. Retail sales also pulled back significantly to 8.5%1 yoy in July from 12.1%1 in June below the consensus 10.9%1. Last week both the International Energy Agency (IEA) and Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) painted less optimistic outlook on the oil market in the monthly reports. The IEA lowered its demand forecast for the second half of 2021 by a considerable 600,000 (2 International Energy Agency (IEA)) barrels per day. The oil market would then only remain slightly undersupplied if OPEC+ kept its oil production below target. The IEA expects a sizeable surplus next year if OPEC+ sticks to its plans and fully reverses its production cuts. The monthly OPEC report shared a similar view to the IEA, that next year’s call on OPEC will be 1 million barrels per day lower than previously envisaged. This is due to noticeably higher non-OPEC supply in particular from Russia. According to the IEA, oil stocks in industrialised countries in June were 66mn barrels below the pre-pandemic five-year average. Another trigger for last week’s oil price slide was driven by headlines from the White House calling on OPEC+ to increase production to cool elevated oil prices. What can we expect from oil in the second half of the year? Oil prices appear to be struggling owing to the short-term impacts from the spread of the new variants of COVID-19. We expect oil prices to trade in a volatile range owing to the uncertainty stemming from the spread of the Delta variant in various parts of the globe. That being said the oil market is currently in a deficit. There is a ray of hope emerging from India, the world’s third largest oil importer, where fuel demand increased to a 16.8mn (3 Reuters) tons in July, a 3-month high after declining to a 9-month low owing to the coronavirus restrictions. Now that infections have abated and restrictions lifted in India, fuel demand in India is garnering momentum. This could also be the case in several parts of Asia as they re-emerge from the stringent containment measures currently in place. Investors currently appear to be overpricing the risk of a decline in demand and underestimating the possibility of geopolitical risks. We expect oil prices to end higher by year end. This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
TVC:USOIL
by aneekaguptaWTE
EO500 Tracker: Tencent Boost Overseas Sales Amid COVID-19Founded in 1998, Tencent is one of the oldest big tech companies in China. The tech giant has dominated the entertainment universe, focusing on integrating its digital ecosystem. With the acquisition of Riot Games, Tencent has amplified its global influence in the entertainment and game industries. In recent years, while its funding activity in some countries, like Korea, were entertainment-focused, the firm's M&A and investment in other regions, such as India, were more comprehensive, aiming to build an ecosystem. In 2020, the company invested more than CNY 275 billion (year-on-year growth of 84%) in overseas markets, focusing on North America, Asia and Europe. Meanwhile, its overseas revenue hit CNY 33.9 billion in 2020 compared with CNY 16.7 billion in the previous year.
HKEX:700Long
by EqualOcean
EO500 Tracker: BYD Boosts Overseas Sales Amid COVID-19 PandemicCOVID-19 has severely affected global markets. As per the recent IMF report, the world's GDP declined by 3.5% in 2020, with a significant increase in unemployment, disposable income reduction and lowered productivity in secondary and tertiary industries. At the same time, this period of turbulence separated the wheat from the chaff, filtering out uncompetitive companies. Adjusting their businesses, many firms have responded with localization strategies, while others have seized opportunities in overseas markets to reinforce their global influence. Among the 45 largest (by market cap) publicly-traded EO500 companies, 16 firms saw their overseas revenues increasing in 2020. In this regard, BYD, Xiaomi and Tencent were among the best performers, with year-on-year growth of 203%, 34% and 103% respectively. Founded in 1995 and swiftly known as a pioneer in battery technology, BYD (01211:HK) expanded its footprint worldwide, with operations in over 50 countries and regions. It has a strong market presence, principally participating in the automobile business, offering traditional fuel-engine vehicles and new energy vehicles, rechargeable batteries, handset components and other related products. With the strongest performance in the international market amid the pandemic and global economic uncertainty, the company's overseas revenue rocketed from CNY 19.5 billion to CNY 59.1 billion, establishing a leading position in the global new energy vehicles sector. Such a massive growth was driven mainly by the combination of improved product quality and growing demand. With a patent portfolio covering lithium iron phosphate batteries, control technologies in bidirectional converters and high-power charging systems, BYD continues building its high-tech prowess. Besides the firm's technological advancements, cost advantage is speeding up the process as well. In recent years, BYD tried to localize its production worldwide, establishing manufacturing plants in numerous countries like the US, Brazil, France and Hungary. This long-term development strategy helps the company minimize costs and avoid tariffs, providing advanced after-sale services.
OTC:BYDDFLong
by EqualOcean
EO500 Tracker: Xiaomi Boosts Overseas Sales Amid COVID-19Among the 45 largest (by market cap) publicly traded EO500 companies, 16 firms saw their overseas revenues increasing in 2020. In this regard, BYD, Xiaomi and Tencent were among the best performers, with year-on-year growth of 203%, 34% and 103% respectively. Xiaomi (01810:HK), established in 2010, has emerged as a top consumer electronics brand. The company offers numerous products like smartphones, laptops and smart home products, garnering support in more than 100 countries and regions around the world. With a large share of many European and Asian countries' markets, its overseas revenue increased steadily amid the epidemic from CNY 91.2 billion to CNY 122.4 billion, accounting for 49.8% of total revenue. In June 2021, the firm's global mobile phone market share rose to 17.1%, overtaking Samsung (15.7%) and Apple (14.3%). Meanwhile, its mobile phone sales grew by 26% on the back of Huawei's decline and prioritization of 4G and 5G-enabled smartphones, marking it the fastest-growing brand for the month.
OTC:XIACFLong
by EqualOcean
A Glance at Tencent's Insurance Technology VenturesTencent has also sped up its venture into the insurance industry. In 2016, Tencent invested in Waterdrop Inc, which turned out to be China's first Insurtech stock (WDH:NYSE), as one of the angel investors. In 2017, Tencent also received the admission ticket, which is an insurance license for its Weimin Insurance Agency Co., Ltd or WeSure issued by CBIRC. WeSure Launched in 2018, WeSure had attracted about 50 million clients as of November 2020. Meanwhile, the number of its registered users has exceeded 100 million. Benefiting from the powerful data networks of WeChat and Tencent's other platforms, WeSure has provided its partners with vital insurance-related technologies, including anti-fraud, risk identification and precision marketing. Users can make insurance purchases, inquiries and claims directly on the firm's vastly popular instant messaging and lifestyle platforms, WeChat and QQ. WeSure has its own edge competing with AntSure. AntSure focused on 'insurance supermarkets' and relied upon cost-effective products based on natural flow conversion from its ecosystem. On the other hand, the focal points of WeSure are its selective customized products and real-life consulting services, which can provide enhanced one-on-one services to help customers with insurance configuration, claims assistance and more. Besides, WeSure has always taken the initiative to partner with foreign insurers, such as AXA and MetLife, to further expand the scope it can reach. In the early stages of COVID-19, WeSure and AXA launched an insurance plan which protected more than 100,000 front-line medical service staff, and the total insured amount of people through WeSure is over 15 million since the outbreak. In addition, WeSure has actively explored charitable opportunities through the use of online insurance; for instance, WeSure established the 'WeSure Charity Fund' to enhance the effectiveness of insurance as a social stabilizer through leveraging the Internet and insurance to increase participation in philanthropy. Bottom line Despite the regulatory shakeups, WeSure and AntSure remain key tech-powered driving forces in China's insurance domain, embracing the potential to reshape the industry landscape. For the full article with the charts, please visit the original link.
OTC:TCEHYLong
by EqualOcean