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Is IBM's retreat from China a strategic gamble or a harbinger ofIBM's recent strategic decision to shutter its research and development center in China has sent ripples through the global tech industry. This move, coupled with the exodus of other American tech giants, has ignited a heated debate about the forces shaping the future of business in the world's second-largest economy. Is IBM's retreat a calculated response to changing market dynamics, or is it a canary in the coal mine, signaling a broader shift in the geopolitical landscape? As we delve deeper into the intricacies of this decision, a complex picture emerges, one that challenges our understanding of the delicate interplay between business, politics, and economics. IBM's withdrawal from China is not merely a corporate decision but a reflection of the evolving tensions between the world's two superpowers. The escalating trade wars, regulatory hurdles, and geopolitical uncertainties have created a challenging environment for foreign businesses, forcing them to reassess their strategies. However, IBM's decision is also a strategic one, driven by factors such as cost optimization and a desire to focus on core competencies. By relocating its operations to regions with lower labor costs, IBM can enhance its profitability and allocate resources more efficiently. As we navigate the complexities of this situation, it's imperative to recognize that IBM's retreat is not an isolated incident. It is a symptom of a broader trend, a reflection of the challenges faced by foreign companies operating in China. The economic slowdown, increased nationalism, and regulatory uncertainty have created a perfect storm that is forcing businesses to rethink their China strategies. The future of business in China remains uncertain. IBM's decision is a stark reminder of the delicate balance between economic opportunities and geopolitical risks. As the world continues to evolve, it is essential for businesses to remain agile, adaptable, and prepared to navigate the challenges and seize the opportunities that lie ahead.
NYSE:IBMLong
by MorMedia
$CNIRYY (August/2024)- China's annual inflation rate edged up to 0.6% in August 2024 from 0.5% in July, falling short of market forecasts of 0.7%. Still, it was the highest print since February, marking the 7th straight month of consumer inflation amid supply issues due to flaming heat and pouring rains. Food prices rose for the first time since June 2023, with their rate of increase the fastest in 19 months (2.8% vs flat reading in July) as fresh vegetables rebounded sharply. Meanwhile, non-food prices increased 0.2% yoy, much slower than the prior 0.7%, on softer rises in cost of clothing (1.4% vs 1.5%), housing (flat reading vs 0.1%), health (1.3% vs 1.4%), and education (1.3% vs 1.7%). At the same time, transport costs fell at a steeper rate (-2.7% vs -0.6%), with lower oil prices offsetting higher cost of utilities. Core consumer prices, deducting food and energy costs, increased 0.3% yoy, the least since March 2021. Monthly, the CPI rose 0.4%, the second month of gain but lower than consensus of 0.5%. source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
ECONOMICS:CNIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
US30 | Trade ideaKey Points: Tesla: Shares fell 1.6% after a report that the company plans to produce a six-seat Model Y in China by late 2025. Boeing: Dropped 7.3% following a downgrade from Wells Fargo to "underweight" from "equal weight." Nvidia: Slumped nearly 10%, wiping out a record $279 billion in market value, marking the largest single-day decline for a U.S. company. U.S. Manufacturing: Edged up in August from an eight-month low but remained subdued, according to ISM data. Market Performance: S&P 500 fell 2.1% Nasdaq dropped 3.3% Dow declined 1.5% This marks the biggest daily percentage decline for these indexes since early August. Nine out of 11 S&P 500 sectors fell, with technology, energy, communication services, and materials leading the decline. Market Sentiment: Weakened amid concerns about the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions, with September being historically one of the worst months for stock market performance. Volatility: The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) jumped 33.2% to 20.72, the highest close since early August. Trading Volume: Totaled 12.14 billion shares across U.S. exchanges, above the 20-day moving average of nearly 11 billion. Labor Market: Traders are awaiting labor market reports ahead of the August non-farm payrolls data. Fed Meeting: Scheduled for Sept. 17-18, with a 63% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut and a 37% chance of a 50-basis point cut, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Market Breadth: On the NYSE, declining issues outnumbered advancers by 2.52-to-1, while on the Nasdaq, decliners outnumbered advancers by 3.5-to-1.
PEPPERSTONE:US30Short
by DynamicCapital-FX
Can Japan Weather the Semiconductor Tempest?In the intricate landscape of global semiconductor trade, Japan's recent decision to restrict exports of chipmaking equipment to China has ignited a tempest of geopolitical tensions. The move, while intended to limit China's technological advancements, risks triggering severe economic retaliation from Beijing. As a leading player in the semiconductor industry, Tokyo Electron finds itself caught in the crossfire, grappling with the potential consequences of this escalating dispute. The semiconductor industry, a cornerstone of modern technology, is intricately intertwined with global economies. Disruptions to the supply of advanced chipmaking equipment could have far-reaching consequences, affecting industries from automotive manufacturing to artificial intelligence. The potential for economic retaliation from China, a major market for Japanese exports, further complicates the situation. Japan's decision to impose export controls is driven by a strategic imperative to limit China's technological capabilities. However, this strategy carries significant risks. China has responded with a strong warning, threatening severe economic retaliation. The broader geopolitical context further complicates the situation, as the United States and its allies have been working to limit China's technological advancements. The question remains: Can Japan successfully navigate this delicate balancing act, maintaining its economic interests while adhering to its strategic objectives? The answer to this enigma will likely shape the future of the semiconductor industry and the global technological landscape for years to come.
NYSE:TELShort
by MorMedia
Hongkong & China Gas: Do not let up!We stick to our primary assumption that the price should make another attempt to overcome the resistance at HK$6.77 and succeed this time. Finally, as part of the magenta wave (4), we expect the price to rise into our same colored Zone (between HK$8.44 and HK$9.19). Investors could open short positions within this range, with stops placed about 1% above the upper edge. The last leg of the beige wave II should then trigger larger sell-offs. However, we consider it 44% likely that the price is already on the home stretch of this correction. This scenario will be triggered by a fall below our grayed-out Zone. It calls for a fall into the southern Zone between HK$4.73 and HK$3.58 in turquoise.
HKEX:3
by MarketIntel
PDD is a strong buy after misunderstood earningsPDD (Temu) shares have fallen over 30% after recent earnings implied they have missed their targets by a massive margin, and a cautious comment indicating there might be macro issues going ahead. However, only revenue has missed targets - by only 3% - effectively meeting the markets sky-high expectations. Looking at the actual releases, EPS is 2.97 in Q2 2024, which actually beat the expectation. The company is still experiencing massive growth - even while, as outlined in the meeting notes around supply chain streamlining, they have simply had some short term costs in this regard. A 30% drop in share price is an extreme overreaction and I expect a quick and violent retrace once the market has cleared its head. "Buy when there is blood on the streets" - especially without reason. Disclaimer: This idea is not intended as investment advice and should not be interpreted as an offer to sell or a recommendation to purchase any asset. Any decisions made based on the information presented in this idea are the sole responsibility of the individual. All investment decisions should be made independently, taking into account your financial situation and objectives.
NASDAQ:PDDLong
by variable_not_defined
1
CN50 dips to continue attract buyers?CHN50 - 24h expiry Indecisive price action has resulted in sideways congestion on the intraday chart. RSI (relative strength indicator) is flat and reading close to 50 (mid-point) highlighting the fact that we are non- trending. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels. A move through 11850 will confirm the bullish momentum. The measured move target is 12000. We look to Buy at 11750 (stop at 11670) Our profit targets will be 11950 and 12000 Resistance: 11850 / 11950 / 12000 Support: 11750 / 11700 / 11650 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:CN50USDLong
by OANDA
PDD Holdings: A Strategic Pivot or a Tempestuous Trial?As PDD Holdings, the e-commerce titan behind Pinduoduo and Temu, confronts a landscape fraught with intensifying competition, economic challenges, and evolving consumer preferences, the question of its future trajectory becomes increasingly pressing. Can the company successfully navigate these turbulent waters, or will it succumb to the tempestuous forces at play? PDD Holdings, once a beacon of e-commerce growth in China, finds itself at a critical juncture. The company's recent second-quarter earnings report, marked by a revenue shortfall and cautious outlook, has sent shockwaves through the market. PDD's strategic pivot, prioritizing long-term value over short-term profitability, while commendable, may face significant challenges in the near term. As PDD grapples with domestic pressures, the company's international expansion strategy, spearheaded by Temu, presents both opportunities and risks. The potential for global growth is undeniable, but the competitive landscape is fiercely contested, with established players like Amazon and Shein vying for market share. The question of whether PDD can successfully navigate these challenges is a complex one. On the one hand, the company possesses a strong financial foundation, with a robust cash position that can provide a buffer during difficult times. Additionally, PDD's commitment to user acquisition beyond China could be a critical driver of future growth. On the other hand, the intensifying competition within the e-commerce sector, coupled with the economic uncertainties in China, pose significant headwinds. PDD's ability to adapt and innovate in such a rapidly evolving environment will be crucial to its long-term success. Investors are closely watching PDD's every move, with opinions on the company's future sharply divided. Some view the current low valuation as an attractive entry point, particularly considering Temu's potential for international expansion. Others, however, remain cautious, citing the ongoing challenges in China, management's tempered outlook, and the possibility of declining profitability. Ultimately, the fate of PDD Holdings hinges on its ability to successfully execute its strategic vision, adapt to changing market conditions, and deliver sustainable value to its investors. The road ahead is likely to be fraught with challenges, but with careful navigation and strategic decision-making, PDD may emerge as a resilient and thriving e-commerce powerhouse.
NASDAQ:PDDShort
by MorMedia
China's about to fly No more comments needed - weekly double bottomed, broke out of downtrend and retested breakout - I expect FXI > 35 by end of the year Disclaimer: This idea is not intended as investment advice and should not be interpreted as an offer to sell or a recommendation to purchase any asset. Any decisions made based on the information presented in this idea are the sole responsibility of the individual. All investment decisions should be made independently, taking into account your financial situation and objectives.
AMEX:FXILong
by variable_not_defined
2
Kraneshares China Internet ETF | KWEB | Long at $26.00The "beginnings" of a change in the downward trend of China's tech stock market may be starting to unfold. The price of Kraneshares China Internet ETF AMEX:KWEB has finally reconnected with my selected simple moving average (SMA) which often means further price consolidation or future price breakout from the overall mean. I'm not saying this will happen immediately and this particular SMA likes to be tested to "fake out" buyers and sellers (sometimes over months or years). Plus, there are price gaps in the low BER:20S on the daily chart that often get filled before a run. But for the early birds out there, like myself, AMEX:KWEB at $26.00 is in a personal buy zone as a starter position. Target #1 = $30.00 Target #2 = $37.00 Target #3 = $49.00 Target #4 = $100.00 (very long-term view...)
AMEX:KWEBLong
by WorthlessViews
1
CN50 rallies to continue attract sellers?CHN50 - 24h expiry Price action has continued to trend strongly higher and has stalled at the previous resistance near 11700. RSI (relative strength indicator) is flat and reading close to 50 (mid-point) highlighting the fact that we are non- trending. We expect a reversal in this move. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a sell from current levels. A move through 11650 will confirm the bearish momentum. We look to Sell at 11700 (stop at 11760) Our profit targets will be 11550 and 11450 Resistance: 11700 / 11750 / 11800 Support: 11600 / 11500 / 11450 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:CN50USDShort
by OANDA
CHINA A50 Rebound expected.The China A50 index (CN50) eventually closed below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) last time we looked into it (June 14, see chart below) and hit our 11800 downside Target: The long-term pattern remains bearish in the form of a Falling Wedge, but right now we expect a medium-term counter-trend rebound similar to the one that followed the May 30 2023 Low and reached the 0.236 Fibonacci extension. As a result, we turn bullish on this index, targeting 12350 (0.236 Fib and top of the Falling Wedge). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:CN50Long
by TradingShot
TSLA Bearish Pennant NASDAQ:TSLA I'm torn on Tesla (TSLA). While I believe Elon Musk is a visionary leader, the stock's short-term outlook appears challenging. Increased pressure from Chinese manufacturers like BYD and broader macroeconomic headwinds make a bullish picture difficult. Tesla is more than just an automaker, with tailwinds from its energy storage, self-driving, and robotics divisions. However, these aren't likely to materialize in the near term. Recent Developments: Broke below 200-day moving average (DMA). Retested and failed to break above the 200-DMA multiple times. Formed a bearish pennant pattern between the 200-DMA and 100-DMA. Bullish Case: TSLA recently broke above a downward trend line and is finding support on the 100-DMA. If this holds, we could see higher highs compared to the most recent run-up. Bearish Case: A break below the bearish pennant while below the 200-DMA could target the previous low this year. While there's a chance of a buying spree at that point, a continued decline is also possible.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by Average_Joe_Options