China: Back to the Grind (SHORT)China:
Morgan Stanley scenario:
Chinese stock indexes could plunge by another 20% from current levels over the next six to 12 months — and potentially remain lower for much longer if the hypothetical stress scenario persists.
China’s GDP could slow drastically, averaging 2% growth in 2023.
More than 11 million people could lose their jobs, likely sending the urban unemployment rate above 7%. Construction, accommodation and catering would see the most job cuts.
China50
Buying CN50 at trend of higher lows.CHN50 - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 13540 (stop at 13470)
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
The trend of higher lows is located at 13455.
This is positive for short term sentiment and we look to set longs at good risk/reward levels for a further correction higher.
The hourly chart technicals suggests further downside before the uptrend returns.
We look to buy dips.
Our profit targets will be 13740 and 14235
Resistance: 14235 / 15080 / 16150
Support: 13110 / 12645 / 12070
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
MARKETS: DebtCeiling 2013& What FollowsHi Traders, Investors and Speculators of the Charts 📈📉
I am passionate about economics and history. Together, these two can tell a compelling story of ow interlinked everything is, and give a glimpse into the future should certain events repeat itself.
That is the core of my argument today as we look at the previous time he US Government hit a debt ceiling, and what happened after.
It would be great if you could watch the video , but if you can't spare 10min here's the summary:
📈 VTI : Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF
I love using the VTI as a general overview of the trend on stocks. You could also use the S&P, it's just a personal preference considering they have interest and hold 50% plus shares of nearly EVERYTHING.
The VTI mostly consolidates and sees some downward price action for three years after USA announces debt crisis. VTI recovers in Jan 2016, three years later.
In other words, in the stock market you may see some down, some up. A near equal amount of buyers and sellers to balance out the total environment. China50 seems to be a precursor of what is about to happen on VTI.
📉 Look for buy opportunities during this time, prepare to hold long term.
📈 GOLD
Gold starts declining before the debt crisis is officially announced. A multiyear bear market follows, one of the worst. Continues up until 2016.
📉 Seems like a good idea to take note of the above and get out of gold, enter again during new lows
📈 BTCUSD / Crypto
We didn't have an overwhelming amount of alts during that time, so only the Bitcoin USD chart can give an idea of what may happen to crypto after a debt ceiling is announced. Interesting to note that BTC rallies almost parabolically and reaches it's first ATH. Then, at the same time the debt crisis is announced. Bitcoin continues into a multi year bear market, only to recover in Jan 2016.
📉 Do I really need to share my unpopular opinion here ... It all depends on how much you believe in history repeating itself.
📈 USOIL / OIL Industry
The oil industry sees the second worst bear market yet, only recovers in Jan 2016 but does not make a higher high until 2020.
📉 Oil saw a sharp v Shape recovery after the announcement of Covid. Oil is still in higher demand than usual considering scarcities so I believe there is another push upwards towards the 3.618 Fibonacci Extension, also the next immediate resistance zone around 200.
📈 EURUSD / strength of the Euro
The announcement of the 2013 debt ceiling sends the Euro into a bear trend against the dollar, bottoming out at 0.76 three years later, again only in 2016.
📉 Euro recently saw a strong V Shaped recovery, but considering the next point you may want to rethink holding Euros:
📈 DXY / Dollar Strength Index
In comparison by percentage, the DXY surpasses every other market. The DXY increases nearly parabolically over this period of time all the way until November 2016. Which naturally ames sense because when there is talks of an economic crises, people tend to sell their assets for CASH which would explain why markets dropped but DXY increases due to higher demand.
📉 Dollars gain against all in Forex markets.
Here's more info on the debt ceiling and what happens if a country defaults:
What are your thoughts on this?
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CryptoCheck
A50 ready to test 15k To celebrate the new year, here some TA on the China A50 index:
The breakout of the descending triangle led to a powerful rally that is still in full place and will most likely bring us to 15k. The golden cross (50 SMA crossing 200 SMA from below) could be the fuel to propel us there. 15k represents a major resistance, if broken on the first attempt (unlikely), it will bring us to Valhalla.
Most likely we will get a retracement and form a nice shoulder for an inverse head&shoulders formation (bullish pattern). From there we will start to raise and visit the moon once the neck (likely 15k) is broken.
Selling CHINA50 into trend of higher highs.CHN50 - 22h expiry - We look to Sell at 13310 (stop at 13445)
Buying pressure from 12917 resulted in prices rejecting the dip.
The current move higher is expected to continue.
Previous resistance located at 13304.
This is negative for short term sentiment and we look to set shorts at good risk/reward levels for a further correction lower.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
Although the anticipated move lower is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today.
Our profit targets will be 12920 and 12660
Resistance: 13140 / 13615 / 14200
Support: 12660 / 12075 / 11120
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
ChinaA50 - Bias for higher levels.CHN50 - Intraday - We look to Buy at 12540 (stop at 12380)
Selling pressure from 13067 resulted in all the initial daily gains being overturned. The current move lower is expected to continue. The bias is still for higher levels and we look for any dips to be limited. We, therefore, prefer to fade into the dip with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back higher.
Our profit targets will be 13005 and 13140
Resistance: 13140 / 13615 / 14200
Support: 12660 / 12075 / 11120
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Chinese SSE300 Index ETF: Bearish Dragon with 1.618 TargetThis is an extension to the Bearish SSE50 setup that I posted not so long ago; I found a tradable US Listed ETF that tracks the movement of the SSE300 and the situation on this chart is pretty much the same as the one for the SSE50 where we are breaking a logarithmic trendline, the moving averages, and looking to make a minimum 61.8% retrace. However, I believe it will go much deeper and my targets will be the 88.6% retrace at $17.31 and then the 1.618 Fibonacci Extension below at $7.72
LU Lufax Most Undervalued Chinese StockFor the China reopening thesis i think LU Lufax Holding is the one of the most undervalued stocks you can own right now! And i will tell you why!
LU Lufax Holding has a ridiculous PE Ratio (TTM) of only 1.81!
The Forward Dividend & Yield is 0.51 (21.79%)!
Last year the stock was $18.30. It has lost most than 90% of its value, while the business is growing and pays dividends.
The yield alone is a big gain, even if the price stays flat.
Last year Morgan Stanley had a price target for LU of $13 while JPMorgan Chase of $15.
3rd biggest shareholder is BlackRock, with an estimated average of $6.11.
You can but the stock now 3 times cheaper than BlackRock.
The average daily volume in the past 3 months is high, more than $10Mil daily (i think someone is accumulating).
My price target is the $7.10 resistance. I believe LU is a premium call.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
Selling CN50 into rallies.CHN50 - 21h expiry - We look to Sell at 12765 (stop at 13010)
Buying pressure from 12189 resulted in prices rejecting the dip.
The current move higher is expected to continue. Trading within a Bullish Channel formation.
Our expectation now is for this swing higher to continue towards the top of the trend channel, to complete a correction before sellers return.
We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower.
Although the anticipated move lower is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today.
Our profit targets will be 12065 and 11120
Resistance: 12660 / 13140 / 13610
Support: 12075 / 11120 / 10490
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Selling CN50 previous support.CHN50 - 21h expiry - We look to Sell at 12340 (stop at 12570)
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
A higher correction is expected.
The bias is still for lower levels and we look for any gains to be limited.
We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower.
Our profit targets will be 11685 and 11485
Resistance: 12270 / 12950 / 13370
Support: 11485 / 11000 / 10490
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Chinese SSE 50 Index Bearish Dragon with 1.618 TargetThe top 50 stocks in the Shanghai Composite Index look to be collectively forming a Bearish Chinese Dragon which if it breaks down could very well send it straight down to the 1.618 Extension given that there's is only one little Support Zone Below us after the trendline is broken. Given this very great Potential Danger that is visible on the chart i will be Avoiding Investment into Chinese Assets in the foreseeable future.
Jamie Gun2Head Trade - Selling China50 Trade Idea: Selling China50
Reasoning: Reaction from major support level . Interim support at 1713 in front of FED meeting later today.
Entry Level: 13943
Take Profit Level: 13630
Stop Loss: 14078
Risk/Reward: 2.32:1
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Chinese stocks have incredible surprise for youChina is number one, huh? Are you really afraid of communistic party going mad and destroying everything they've earned with hard work last 20 years?
They already spread covid and use their russian doll to harm West and that will be enough for them to continue going forward and building more trading routes in South America, Africa and Asia. China is here to stay no matter you like it or not, but they are working hard and providing value.
Long your longs before FED change it's policy in September-November and revaluate food and energy weight in CPI indexes or else...
Also most covid noob plebs already out of stonks and crypto and done with investing, rooting in a crisis.
Would you buy the blood and fear here or sell with normies is the question?!
Dollar value is still going down since the day it was born no matter what.
China50 Finally Time to Buy? Major positive announcements from the CCP today say Chinese stocks soar and the big picture outlook improve dramatically.
Covid stimulus for those companies affected by the lockdowns, cheaper share trading fees, but the big one is the end of the clampdown on the Chinese Tech sector.
Alibaba and Tencent the two biggest tech companies soared and if the government war on Tech computers is over the the chance of a sustained recovery very good.