CN50 - Possible Head & Shoulder formationOANDA:CN50USD
Trade Idea
CHN50 - Intraday - We look to Sell at 13650 (stop at 13750)
Short term momentum is bearish. Price action has posted a Doji candle and is neutral for short-term sentiment. Bias is mildly bearish today but we need to see a break of 13300 to confirm the downward pressure. In line with the possible early stages of a head & shoulders pattern and the strong rejection of gains, we look to set shorts in anticipation of a swing lower.
Our profit targets will be 13350 and 13150
Resistance: 13600 / 13700 / 13800
Support: 13320 / 13250 / 13150
China50
China's Large Cap: Ready to test the 10 year Highs?With the U.S. - China trade deal developments ongoing and reportedly staying on positive grounds, the stock markets are globally on the rise in 2019. This is a good time to examine how the heavy Chinese companies are performing.
FXI is the index that tracks China's stocks with the largest capitalization. On the monthly (1M) chart we see that since the 2009 crash, it has been recovering on Higher Highs and Higher Lows, effectively constructing a Channel Up on 1M (RSI = 56.535, MACD = 0.600, Highs/Lows = 0.3822). These indicators show that it recently hit a low point and is on the early stages of a new bullish leg. On the chart this is evident by the January 2019 bounce on the inner lower Higher Low trend line (indicated in dash). What is also evident are the 1M Support Zone (28.20 - 28.70) and 1M Resistance Zone (52.90 - 54.00). The 1M Resistance Zone is our immediate target although the 10 year Channel Up suggests that it may break it and peak as high as 61.00.
In our opinion it is definitely a time to start looking at China's Large Cap more favorably.
We have already warned of this upcoming bullish leg on the Shanghai Composite Index on December 2018:
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CHINA MARKET COLLAPSED 2019 - MORTGAGE DOOMSDAYYep, you heard it and seen it right.
CHINA50 one of the world most important economy and the stock market is likely to head for DOOMSDAY once again.
It's not just another correction, it is a melt-down a 30% shave off from the current value and 50% to 60% from the all-time high.
Technical we can see a DOUBLE TOP, and ironically CHINA STOCK MARKET RALLIED IN JAN 2015 when the global market was declining during that time.
This was the TECH BUBBLE IN CHINA as well as MORTGAGE LOANS which is bound for DOOMSDAY. HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF!
This is a no-brainer, CHINA was simply over-leveraging during the last 10 years. GHOST TOWN EVERYWHERE AND CONSUMER NO LONGER CAN PAY THEIR MORTGAGE DEBTS in an ENVIRONMENT WHERE
Interest rates are higher, YIELDS are LOWER, and VALUATION no longer keeps up with rising DEBTS. It's just another repeat of LEHMAN CRISIS AND THIS SHOULD GET BIGGER.
The Government is tightening things internally to slow down the imminent meltdown and to cushion this crazy non-existence of money that was borrowed ahead to create artificial assets so every CHINA can be rich selling their LAND AND PROPERTY! With money harder to be transferred out, and clamming down on corruptions and an SKY NET that watches every single cent moving within the country's merchant. More and more developments, as well as projects, are heading for defaults and crashes. Nobody is going to live in a ghost-town anyway.
Here we go again!
#Disclaimer, this is just a forecast. Happy Trading and Good luck folks. - FTD
Short FXI along with SPY for a correction (Week of Sept 25)FXI had a strong week bounced off weekly cloud. The bounce is much due to USDHKD weakness as PBOC stepped in to intervene the weakening HKD. However, that costs foreign reserve and its not sustainable. With my idea of short SPY the next week. The bounce should fade away.
Weekly we can see a wide green bar but with volume lower than last week. This is either short covering or bears waiting to short at higher level. I suspect it will go down along with the falling widened wedge to test green cloud support. After that, just like SPY, a strong buying opportunity all the way to the top, where the peak will be set.
China and U.S trade news just came out this weekend. Suppose buy rumor sell the news. The rumor previously was bought and my thought is the news will be sold.
I linked to my previous short FXI idea. It is still in play, although a decent bounce.