Chinastocks
CHINA MARKET COLLAPSED 2019 - MORTGAGE DOOMSDAYYep, you heard it and seen it right.
CHINA50 one of the world most important economy and the stock market is likely to head for DOOMSDAY once again.
It's not just another correction, it is a melt-down a 30% shave off from the current value and 50% to 60% from the all-time high.
Technical we can see a DOUBLE TOP, and ironically CHINA STOCK MARKET RALLIED IN JAN 2015 when the global market was declining during that time.
This was the TECH BUBBLE IN CHINA as well as MORTGAGE LOANS which is bound for DOOMSDAY. HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF!
This is a no-brainer, CHINA was simply over-leveraging during the last 10 years. GHOST TOWN EVERYWHERE AND CONSUMER NO LONGER CAN PAY THEIR MORTGAGE DEBTS in an ENVIRONMENT WHERE
Interest rates are higher, YIELDS are LOWER, and VALUATION no longer keeps up with rising DEBTS. It's just another repeat of LEHMAN CRISIS AND THIS SHOULD GET BIGGER.
The Government is tightening things internally to slow down the imminent meltdown and to cushion this crazy non-existence of money that was borrowed ahead to create artificial assets so every CHINA can be rich selling their LAND AND PROPERTY! With money harder to be transferred out, and clamming down on corruptions and an SKY NET that watches every single cent moving within the country's merchant. More and more developments, as well as projects, are heading for defaults and crashes. Nobody is going to live in a ghost-town anyway.
Here we go again!
#Disclaimer, this is just a forecast. Happy Trading and Good luck folks. - FTD
Shanghai Index Testing Key Resistance LevelThe Shanghai index set a new low this year bottomed out at 2443.00 last Monday. Where price has surged nicely last week, ending the week with 5.5% gain. Now price has been trading just underneath key resistance for just a day now. With US election coming out bullish for the US market, the only major concern now in the global market is trade war.
Trade Step-ups:
Bearish Reversal : Price rejects a break from current resistance level. Profit levels to look for are 2580.00 & 2550.00 respectively.
Bullish breakout : Price breaks current resistance level, look for consolidation above 2680.00.
I figured out the Stock Market Future ProjectionI finally cracked the projection of where the stock market is heading with the China Vs USA trade war.
YY - Increasing volumeChinese cellphone platforms:
Y Inc. (YY) is a social platform that engages users in real-time online group activities through voice, video and text on personal computers and mobile devices. The Company's segments include YY IVAS and others, Huya broadcasting, and 100 Education. YY enables users to create and organize groups of varying sizes to discover and participate in a range of online activities, including music shows, online games, dating shows, live game broadcasting and e-learning. YY offers users an entertainment experience through its social community. It owns the domain names of YY.com, Duowan.com, 100.com, Huya.com, Edu24ol.com and Zhiniu8.com. The Company's YY platform, including YY.com, is jointly operated by personnel from Guangzhou Huaduo and Zhuhai Duowan. Its product, YY Client, enables users to engage in live interactions online. Its Web-based YY enables users to conduct real-time interactions through Web browsers without requiring any downloads or installations.
Full retracement, when will Cboe VIX drop below 15-16?
YY
AMEX:CBOE
LONG TKAT @ $.6954 for Chinese Internet (KWEB) UpsideTechnical Analysis:
1. KWEB (Chinese Internet ETF): Expect a relief bounce here for Chinese Internet stocks ( BABA BIDU JD ) with a Hong Kong ( HKDOW ) & Shanghai ( DJSH ) market rally.
a. Holding 200weekSMA and 50monthSMA support here at $44 with record volume twitter.com
b. Very oversold on weekly timeframe
c. Strong price support at $41.00
d. 4/24/18 gap filled at $43.53
e. Possible reversion to mean: 2018 Chinese Internet % Total Returns (negative) very divergent from US Internet % Total Returns (positive)
2. TKAT (Takung Art Co) showing strong correlation with KWEB with more volatility, conveying a higher beta to Chinese markets. This will result in exceeding KWEB’s % gains on upside price movement.
a. Potential price double bottom $.63-$.68
b. Extremely oversold on weekly/monthly timeframes
c. Daily RSI uptrend from 29 (8/9/18) to 34 (10/11/18)
d. Large accumulation volume on 10/2 and 10/12
e. Testing 10dayEMA @ $.75
Fundamental Analysis: TKAT - Takung Art Company:
1. Takung Art Company fundamentals convey undervaluation and thus provides great risk/reward for China Internet/Software market rally
a. Price to Book = .49
b. Price to Sales = .61
c. Net Current Asset Value = 1.24
d. Cash to Debt = 1.43 – Strong cash position to outlast market downturn
e. Poor 2018Q2 and 2018Q3 earnings coupled with an overall bearish Chinese investor sentiment already priced into stock price
f. Company is expected to resume Listing Revenue (primary revenue stream) end of October – temporarily loss of revenue could be short-lived
g. Company plans to reduce G&A expenses by 10% in 2018Q3
LNVGY (Lenovo Group LTD) --> place BUY ORDERS in the Green Box!LNVGY (Lenovo Group LTD) --> place BUY ORDERS in the Green Box!
Long on SSCCombination news and technical analysis play. Buy could have been earlier. But buying opportunities still exist.
butterfly pattern needs to clear .618 stalking entry waiting for clearance of .618 for future tgt of 192
Prev. bearish AB-CD pattern, C leg now resistancesI have no buying interest until a close above 48.50 on watch
China A 50 TARGET HITChinaA50 has gaied 760 points after the call i made to BUY at 11000. I still se upside for another potential 250/500 points up in the coming days.
NIO, IPO, Tesla Competitor? Huge Potential Gains!This was released under IPO price. Im long @ 5.99.
Tesla competitor and much more involved with this company, just no need to go into much detail.
Cant beat under IPO price, and huge long term possibilities with this company.
They may be the first producers of an affordable electric car to start.
This is high risk, as noone knows what could happen.
I have a 100% success rate with IPOs this year so far, just mentioning.
Happy trading , debating, and speculating!
ALIBABA.....TURNING AROUND?As you can see Alibaba moved up on Wednesday just before the support at $164.20. Mainly because of the news that Alibaba launched an Amazon Prime-like concept called 88VIP.
The day before that it was announced that Kroger would partner up with Alibaba to sell their products in China. Such partnership wouldn't be only good for Kroger it would possibly generate more traffic for Alibaba which could result in more revenue in other departments of the E-commerce company.
Most eyes will be focused on the 23rd when the earnings release is due. With the last 4 reports beating estimates I'm fairly confident this one is no exception.
In my opinion Alibaba is set to return to it's previous high's with the "oversold" 10-day RSI in the back of my mind and the recent positive developments on the fundamental side.
First target is set at around $192.30 the second target would be close to $200.
I will follow up if the targets get hit or when it breaks support.
P.S. I'm not telling you what to do always cross-reference with your own analysis. I'm not responsible for your loss.
China/Asia crashes through support - look out below.China/Asia break support and head lower as the debt contagion continues to spread in SE Asia. Watch how this debt/credit issue expands across SE Asia, South America and across the One Road project countries. My assumption is that China is using every resource possible to prevent this type of contagion event from happening now with it having "fingers in every country" and enacting a very bold and expansive initiative to expand trade and other infrastructure projects across the developing world.
My opinion is that this contagion is just beginning to take root and once the true damage is known, it could be complete chaos while these other foreign nations and China attempt to restore some order and function to these lofty plans.
There is an old saying in China that goes "How do you know a Chinaman is greedy? He will have one finger in every pot at the dinner table - but never eat". This saying it, literally, exactly what is happening in China at the moment. The greedy Chinaman has one finger in every pot to try to control (for himself) everything on the table, but with one finger in every pot (all the time), he can never really eat and enjoy the food. He is too busy trying to control everything and keep his fingers into everything.
Watch how this plays out and visit my web sites if you want to know more about what I do and how I can help you navigate these global markets. We are going to see many huge swings in the financial markets over the next 10~20 years. You better be ready for it or have a solid team of people backing up you.
1810 - Xiaomi HKEX basic setup
Xiaomi shows some signs of reverse / end of correction / around listing price. However locally Xiaomi is on the downtrend side.
Reasons to be bullish include an expected surge in revenue and earnings, driven by Xiaomi’s focus on Internet services and its increasing share of the hardware market in China, according to notes seen by Bloomberg. In a 63-page note to clients titled “Building a mountain one grain at a time,” Goldman Sachs analysts including Piyush Mubayi estimate Xiaomi has as many as 190 million users worldwide.
CICC predicts Xiaomi will grow revenue by 45 percent and earnings by 60 percent at a compound annual growth rate in 2018-2020. Morgan Stanley predicts a 61 percent growth rate for net profit in that period. Xiaomi is expected to release earnings on Aug. 22.
Analysts now predict Xiaomi will rise 22 percent from Wednesday’s close, according to the average 12-month target price compiled by Bloomberg.
www.bloomberg.com
China's/Asia's DO OR DIE support level is hereMy custom China/Asia index shows, very clearly, the support near 7200 is critical at this time. The continued weakness originating out of China and the efforts to contain the current rout as well as contain an economic crisis are clearly generating concern throughout the globe. China has it's fingers in many other global nations. A collapse in China would directly influence dozens of foreign nations in terms of expectations and long term infrastructure projects.
The one thing that concerns me the most is the abilities of the Chinese consumer and middle-class to continue their lifestyles while the Chinese economy appears to be contracting. At some point, we have to consider that the Chinese consumer may capitulate with this economic crisis and begin to pull away from speculating/investing in ways that the Chinese have not experienced since 1994-95. A prolonged decline in consumer activity is NOT what China wants in an attempt to recover.
Watch this 7200 level over the next few weeks as this is likely going to be a temporary floor before a breakdown begins.
70 pips more to drop or 2.5% more on the downsideChina SH composite is approaching 2016 low at 2638.
Adding the background the BOC raised the forward reserve requirement for foreign exchange and RMB surged.
If look at the down side, 70 pips to drop/-2.5%, will possibly see a resistance showed at the 2016 retracement low @ 2638.
Personally also considered it as the psychological support of investors.
Hope the index can stop there and enter into a new rebound. goldtrader666
Ignore the manipulation, play the Chinese Trump card on BTCAll explained in detail on the graph but the simplification of the economic dynamic:
Major world market index over the last 12 Months have been highly correlated with BTC (exceptions do take place).
On Friday the 3rd August 2018 Chinese stocks ceded their ranking as the second-largest equity market in the world amid an elevation in trade tensions after the Trump administration said it was considering increasing the initial proposed tariff. Given China and Asian markets are major contributors to the value that BTC holds, BTC has taken a tumble despite US equity markets being on the rise.
Chinese markets will open in a few hours. One would hope considering they are at almost a one year low and under a temporary trade war that a knee jerk reaction will cause an influx of capital across the markets (US markets could be an exception).
In my opinion an exponential recovery of Bitcoin is imminent. The suppression of BTCUSD is from a number of temporary factors. I would consider this another buy opportunity.
Chinas bear market correlates to NEO, buy the trade war dipAll explained in detail on this graph:
But the simplification of a complex economic dynamic:
Certain major world market index over the last 12 months highly correlated with with regional digital assets.
Overnight, Chinese stocks ceded their ranking as the second-largest equity market in the world amid an elevation in trade tensions after the Trump administration
said it was considering increasing the initial proposed tariff. Given China and Asian markets are major contributors to the value that NEO (and BTC) holds, NEO (and BTC) have taken a tumble. This is despite US equity markets being on the rise.
In my opinion an exponential recovery of BTC, NEO and GAS is imminent. The suppression CHINAA50, BTCUSD NEOUSD and GASUSD from a temporary trade war is an opportunity to buy these assets at an already discounted price. Given that NEO is a Chinese based blockchain its not overly surprising that NEO and its utility token GAS has had an amplified price deterioration making then even more of a buying opportunity.
A-Share dilemma - break of trend or meteroic rise?Looking at the long-term trend, the Chinese A-shares are trading within a pretty well defined range since the mid 1990's. This includes two meteroic bubbles that have risen as quickly as they've crashed. Despite these bubbles forming, they haven't caused any massive damage to the Chinese economy such as what we saw when other large bubbles broke down (such as Japan's 1980's bubble, or the US dotcom bubble).
Interestingly, each time the trend hit the lower end of the range, we've seen the a-shares shoot up meteroically. Fundamentally, I'm rather bearish on the Chinese market right now. They have an insane debt bubble combined with the news events coming from "trade war" problems. Most of the bubbles in the Shanghai Composite have come as a result of the Chinese govt's constant injections of liquidity and easing. This provides a window into a view of the debt bubble.
Recently, the lower end of the range was once again just hit, and we also have come to learn that the Chinese gov't is already back to monetary easing through various means. Based on history, you would think we may see another meteoric rise in the Shanghai composite index, but I'm not sure that will happen this time around. China is painted into a more difficult corner this time around, and they are more wary about stock bubbles like this nowadays. I think given the fundamental picture, we're more likely to break the long-term trend downward. If the debt bubble does in fact burst, this will certainly be the case. With that said, I think it may be prudent to buy some deep OTM leap calls on the Shanghai Composite (you can use the ETF $ASHR) to capitalize on a potential blowoff bubble formed from more easing once again.
FXI Long IdeaLong the Chinese Large Cap stocks with this ETF. Product is super volatile do your dd on investing in International Markets. With the weakness of the yuan against the US dollar, equities should be a good buying opportunity..buying the next day after this reversal could be a chance of collecting the move up to in the air pockets above.
