Xiamen Changelight Soars 108% in Just 16 Days!Xiamen Changelight Analysis:
Xiamen Changelight has seen a phenomenal rally, achieving a stunning 108% gain over the past 16 days. The recent bullish momentum has allowed the stock to achieve all target levels, with each level surpassed in quick succession.
Trade Setup:
Entry Point: $8.11
Stop Loss: $7.86
Target Levels:
TP 1: $8.41
TP 2: $8.90
TP 3: $9.38
TP 4: $9.69
Technical Indicators:
The stock has trended strongly above the Risological dotted trend line, showing a clear uptrend and sustained buying pressure. The price action’s alignment with this trend suggests confidence among buyers and the potential for continuation if volume remains supportive.
Market Sentiment:
The sharp rise in share price reflects strong interest in Xiamen Changelight, potentially driven by fundamental catalysts or broader market trends in its industry. With robust volume supporting the upward movement, the momentum appears sustainable, although some consolidation might occur after such a large gain.
Outlook:
With all targets reached, traders should monitor for any pullback or consolidation phase as new support levels are established. The strong trend could attract further interest, especially if broader sentiment remains positive. Keep an eye on volume and price stability to assess if another leg up is likely in the coming sessions.
Chinese
CSI 300 [Weekly Chart]The similarities of market movement in the CSI 300:
1. 2006-2007
2. 2014-2015
3. 2020-2021
After which we see a crash in the CSI 300 following a 8 months to 1 year (est.) rally.
The rally leading up to the crash also comes generally in 2 stages.
"History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes"
NIO SHORT to $5.70, then $4.0 NIO - Chinese automaker
Fundamental
According to carnewschina.com in Q1 2023 year NIO sold 31,041 EVs - 2.46% only.
"Nio is currently having difficult times in China. Because of the price war, its sales declined, resulting in a noticeable revenue decrease. So, Nio was forced to also join the price war by cutting the cost of every model by 30,000 yuan (4,200 USD). They are obviously in need of keeping the customers’ demand high. The newly launched ET5 Touring can help them for a short period. But station wagons don’t sell hot in China. So, Nio has to push its international deliveries to start as soon as possible."
read NIO to hit the Europe soon. - I can't believe it. European market is not empty. Volkswagen, BMW, Tesla, Toyota, Honda, Hyundai and many others sell a lot right now. Top EU Electric Cars
I watched a lot of presentations, reviews. Nio EV's are really good. But the prices..
Y/Y
Gross Margin % 7.73
Operating Margin % -37.06
Net Margin % -35.01
Income -2463.40M
Sales 7.03B
Cash is melting, debt is growing.
Technical
NIO's chart goes down in the channel.
Just now price is
- near the top level of downtrend channel - Resistance $10.5
- RSI 23 is 63% (bounced from 70%). Always when RSI is on this level the price falls 30% min.
- next strong support level is $5.70
Conclusion
NIO chart is going down in the channel.
Buy for $5.70, then $4.0 and keep for 2-3 years.
Build Your Dreams (BYD): Moving Higher!Build Your Dreams (BYD): HKEX:285
After closely examining the Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer BYD, we've concluded that there is a very appealing and interesting opportunity to start building positions. We are currently in an overarching Wave III. Wave II concluded at the low of 13.20 HKD, and the all-time high is currently at 63.10 HKD. We are now likely in a Wave 5, which should coincide with the completion of Wave (1). Subsequently, a deeper correction to Wave (2) is expected, where we aim to place our next long-term entries, but we also want to place a short-term entry now.
We have successfully completed Wave 4 and since developed Waves ((i)) and ((ii)). This Wave ((ii)) held precisely at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 28.19 HKD, and we should not fall below this before completing the overarching Wave 5 or Wave (1). We should also surpass the Wave 3 high of 40.40 HKD.
China's NIO & CATL Collaborates to Create Longer Life BatteriesIn a strategic move to drive innovation and lower the overall costs of electric vehicles (EVs), Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer Nio ( NYSE:NIO ) has partnered with battery giant CATL to develop longer-lasting batteries. This collaboration aims to address the critical challenge of extending the lifespan of EV batteries, ultimately enhancing the affordability and sustainability of Nio's electric fleet.
Pioneering Battery Technology for Enhanced Efficiency:
Nio's founder and CEO, William Li, emphasized the significance of addressing the longevity of EV batteries, highlighting it as a critical issue facing the entire industry. By leveraging the expertise and resources of both companies, Nio and CATL are poised to pioneer advancements in battery technology that will significantly impact the "full life cycle" costs of EVs. This collaborative effort underscores a shared commitment to driving innovation and sustainability in the automotive sector.
Extending Battery Lifespan and Lowering Operating Costs:
With warranties typically covering EV batteries for eight years, Nio recognizes the urgency of extending battery lifespan to maximize the value for customers. By extending the lifespan of swappable batteries and reducing monthly rental fees, Nio aims to lower the overall costs of EV ownership, making electric vehicles more accessible to a broader range of consumers. This strategic approach aligns with Nio's commitment to delivering exceptional value and driving widespread adoption of sustainable transportation solutions.
Investing in Core Technologies and Infrastructure:
Despite external investments and strategic partnerships, Nio remains dedicated to investing in developing core technologies such as batteries. The company's focus on commercializing advanced battery technologies, including semi-solid-state batteries with a range of up to 1,000 km, underscores its commitment to innovation and leadership in the EV market. Additionally, Nio's investment in infrastructure for battery charging and swapping reflects its commitment to providing convenient and efficient charging solutions for EV drivers.
Driving Towards a Sustainable Future:
As Nio ( NYSE:NIO ) continues to expand its footprint in the electric vehicle market, the company remains committed to driving sustainable transportation solutions. With plans to unveil its second brand, Ledao, Nio aims to target a wider range of consumers and further solidify its position as a leader in the EV industry. By forging strategic partnerships, investing in innovative technologies, and prioritizing sustainability, Nio ( NYSE:NIO ) is poised to drive the future of electric mobility and contribute to a cleaner, greener future for generations to come.
JD.com Resurgence: Surpassing Expectations JD.com (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:JD ), the Chinese e-commerce giant, has emerged victorious in the face of economic headwinds, defying expectations with impressive fourth-quarter revenue figures that have ignited a surge in investor confidence. With shares soaring 15% , JD.com's strategic maneuvers and resilience in a challenging market landscape have captured the attention of analysts and stakeholders alike.
The company's success in the final quarter of 2023, buoyed by aggressive price cuts and heavy discounts during China's renowned Singles Day shopping festival, underscores its ability to adapt and thrive amidst economic turbulence. Despite China's shaky economic growth and concerns surrounding youth unemployment and stagnant wages, JD.com's ( NASDAQ:JD ) innovative approach to stimulating consumer demand has yielded remarkable results.
Chief Executive Sandy Xu Ran's announcement of plans to expand JD.com's international presence marks a pivotal moment in the company's trajectory. With a keen focus on supply chain optimization, JD.com ( NASDAQ:JD ) aims to establish itself as a global powerhouse, leveraging its distinct business model and competitive advantages to penetrate new markets.
The prospect of JD.com's ( NASDAQ:JD ) potential acquisition of UK electronics retailer Currys further underscores its commitment to international expansion. As the company seeks to diversify its revenue streams and mitigate risks associated with domestic market fluctuations, analysts anticipate a strategic move that could bolster JD.com's ( NASDAQ:JD ) global footprint and drive long-term growth.
JD.com's ( NASDAQ:JD ) stellar quarterly performance, with net revenue surpassing analyst estimates at 306.1 billion yuan ($42.52 billion), reflects its enduring popularity among cost-conscious consumers. Despite concerns stemming from an internal audit of its Dada Nexus unit, JD.com's overall revenue remains robust, alleviating investor apprehensions and reaffirming confidence in the company's resilience.
Moreover, JD.com's ( NASDAQ:JD ) announcement of a $3 billion share repurchase program underscores its commitment to enhancing shareholder value and capitalizing on market opportunities. With its U.S.-listed shares experiencing a recent downturn, JD.com's proactive measures signal a strategic pivot towards revitalizing investor sentiment and unlocking future growth potential.
As JD.com ( NASDAQ:JD ) reports a net income attributable to shareholders of 3.4 billion yuan, marking a significant increase from the previous year, the company's trajectory appears poised for further success. With a steadfast focus on innovation, expansion, and shareholder value, JD.com ( NASDAQ:JD ) continues to navigate the complexities of the global market with confidence and determination.
NIO - Will Rise From Ashes 🦅Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 NIO has been overall bearish, trading within the falling wedge pattern in red.
Currently, NIO is hovering around the lower bound of the wedge acting as a non-horizontal support.
Moreover, it is retesting a strong support zone at 5.0 marked in green.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted red circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the green support and lower red trendline.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #NIO is around the red circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
MOMO LongI don't usually post trade setups that include eliott waves, however this one is really captivating.
MOMO completed a 5 wave Impulse from its low before recently completing an ABC correction where the second wave completed at a perfect bearish bat, and then the wave hit its measured move below the key support level. The correction waves bottomed out at a key level from history that coincides with the 0.618 fib retracement level from the low to high of the Impulse phase. This potentially signals a wave 2 completion of a larger 5 Wave Impulse up
One of the strongest setups we look for is a spring backtest, where an asset falls below a key level, before springing back above that key level and backtesting it as support. In this case we are yet to backtest it as support. However, we have sprung and are showing lots of bullish divergence, so within the community we have started to layer in from this level.
First target at a key resistance already gives us a 38% return against a potential 8% loss.
Xiaomi: Still some Room! ⬆️Xiaomi stock has retreated somewhat in recent days. Nonetheless, we are sticking to our primary assumption that the price is likely to surpass the highs from November once again as part of the magenta wave (B) in order to form the high a good deal further north. Accordingly, we expect a return to this short-term bullish path in the near future. It is important to note, however, that the 33% probable alternative would already allow the high to be in place. We would favor this scenario in the event of significant declines. A far-reaching descent is also on the agenda in our primary scenario after the current (corrective) wave (B) has ended. The price should only finalize the big wave II in grey and thus the big correction below the support at HK$8.31.
A few trends in China's economyToday, we would like to briefly discuss a few underlying trends in China's economy, touching on the subject of unemployment, demographics, and deflation.
Youth unemployment
While the unemployment situation has improved in 2023, youth unemployment (for those aged between 16 and 24) has been a longtime issue in China. Indeed, it has steadily risen since 2018 (back then, it stood at around 10%), with government programs promoting a higher level of education contributing to the problem. As a matter of fact, this year, in June, the youth unemployment rate hit a staggering 21.3%, prompting the Chinese government to stop reporting the number.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of China’s unemployment rate.
Demographics and fertility
Another big issue in China is the country’s aging population and declining fertility among women. The median age has risen from 28.9 years in 2000 to 34.1 years in 2010 and 37.4 years in 2020. On the other hand, the average number of births per woman stood at 1.6 in 2000; in 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2017, the average rose to 1.8. But since 2018, the rate has been rapidly collapsing. In 2021, the number stood at 1.2, representing approximately 33% decline since 2018.
China’s deflation
As much of the Western world grapples with inflation, China has the opposite problem. For November 2023, the country recorded -0.5% deflation compared to the previous year. With that said, there were three periods when China experienced deflation (annually) since the 1990s. The first period occurred between 1998 and 1999, when the annual inflation rate was -0.8% and -1.4%. The second instance took place in 2002, and the third in 2007. For the eleven months of 2023, the inflation rate averages about 0.3%, the lowest figure since 2009.
Housing prices
Amid the ongoing property crisis in China, house prices have been sliding down this year. Actually, there were only two prints when the year-over-year change was not negative, particularly in June 2023 (coming in at 0.1%) and July 2023 (coming in at 0%).
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Xiaomi: Take a breath 😮💨Xiaomi stock struggled to continue its uptrend last week and is currently trading slightly lower. However, we see this as a normal counter-reaction to the strong price gains and part of the substructure of the magenta wave (y), whose top and thus the end of the same-colored wave (B) should be in sight further north. Therefore, we expect that the bulls will soon regain the upper hand and push the price a bit higher. The high should initiate a change in direction and start a significant downward movement.
LI Auto Options Ahead of Earnings If you haven`t sold LI when they reduced the delivery outlook:
Or on this Earnings Release:
Then Analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of LI Auto prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 20usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2024-5-17,
for a premium of approximately $0.60.
I think there is still some upside momentum left, followed by a big selloff by the end of the year.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
XPEV XPeng Options Ahead Of EarningsIf you haven`t bought XPEV here:
Then Analyzing the options chain of XPEV XPeng prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 10usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-7-21,
for a premium of approximately $0.68
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
BABA Alibaba Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold BABA here:
and bought it here:
Now Analyzing the options chain of BABA Alibaba prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 90usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-6-16,
for a premium of approximately $4.45
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
'Can China’s Long-Term Growth Rate Exceed 2–3 Percent?' SummaryThis is a summary of Michael Pettis' 'Can China’s Long-Term Growth Rate Exceed 2–3 Percent?' carnegieendowment.org
As the text was quite long, this summarizes some critical points.
China's high investment share of GDP and growing debt burden are interrelated, stemming from an investment-driven growth model that began in the 1980s when the country needed significant investment in infrastructure, urban property development, and manufacturing facilities. High domestic investment required high domestic savings, leading to a rapid savings increase by constraining household consumption and income growth. Policymakers now recognize the need to rebalance China's economy towards domestic consumption.
High investment levels initially benefited the Chinese economy, as productive investment grew at the fastest pace in history. However, a successful development model should make itself obsolete, and China has closed the gap between its actual investment level and the level its businesses and workers can productively absorb. As productivity benefits of additional investment decline, more investment begins to generate less economic value than the value of employed resources. This can be observed in China's increasing debt numbers.
Countries that followed this growth model experienced a period of rapid, sustainable growth with stable debt levels, followed by a period of rapid, unsustainable growth driven by a surging debt burden. China entered this phase around fifteen years ago. Therefore, the investment share of China's GDP must decline sharply in the next few years, as the conditions that made high investment levels sustainable no longer exist. Historical precedents suggest that reducing the investment share of GDP to a sustainable level is better for the economy's long-term health, growth, and stability.
In this context, rebalancing the Chinese economy will require significant adjustments in its economic structure. Beijing must focus on boosting domestic consumption, though this would likely result in a decline in China's annual GDP growth to around 2-3 percent for many years. The current investment share of GDP is extraordinarily high, making it difficult to reduce it without significantly affecting overall economic activity.
Policymakers in Beijing have increasingly called for an expansion in the role of consumption, but there are significant political constraints in implementing such policies. Rebalancing would require consumption to grow faster than GDP and GDP to grow faster than investment. This implies transferring income from governments and businesses to households, a process that has not yet seen concrete proposals.
The decline in growth will be unevenly distributed, with local governments bearing the brunt of the adjustment while ordinary Chinese people experience less impact. This also means that sectors of the global economy that depend on Chinese investment growth will be more affected, while those reliant on Chinese consumption will be less impacted.
China's investment share of GDP currently stands at around 42-44 percent, which is unsustainable in the long run. For the purposes of this analysis, it is assumed that China should reduce its investment share to 30 percent over ten years, a level typical of rapidly developing economies. As investment declines, the consumption share of GDP must rise.
Michael presents five scenarios under which China can rebalance its economy:
A. Rebalance with a surge in consumption: China's consumption would need to grow by 6-7% annually, while investment grows by 0-1% annually, resulting in a GDP growth rate of 4% over ten years. However, this requires politically difficult income transfers from local governments and wealthy individuals to households.
B. Rebalance while maintaining current consumption growth rates: Consumption growth would remain at 3-4%, with investment contracting by 1-2% annually. This would lead to an average annual GDP growth rate of 1.5% over ten years.
C. Rebalance with a sharp decline in consumption growth: If consumption growth drops to 1-2% annually, the investment must decline by nearly 3% annually, leading to flat GDP growth.
D. Rebalance with a sharp contraction in GDP: This scenario involves a short-term, severe GDP contraction but is considered politically disruptive and unlikely.
E. Rebalance over a much extended period: If China takes 15-20 years to rebalance, with consumption growth at 3-4% annually, GDP growth will drop to 2% and 2.5%, respectively.
Key points include the limited ways China can rebalance, the difficulty in maintaining a high investment share indefinitely, and the necessity of a surge in consumption growth for a more balanced economy. Rebalancing will involve slower GDP growth without faster consumption growth, driven by significant and politically challenging income transfers.
In conclusion, China's rebalancing process will require significant adjustments in its economic structure. The country must reduce its reliance on investment and increase the role of consumption in driving growth. However, the political constraints and the impact on various sectors of the economy make this a challenging task for policymakers. The five scenarios presented illustrate the complexities of the rebalancing process and emphasize the need for a well-thought-out and carefully executed strategy.
China's future economic health depends on its ability to navigate these challenges and transition to a more sustainable growth model. Beijing must strike a delicate balance between addressing political constraints and implementing policies that promote consumption growth while minimizing the negative impacts on various sectors and local governments.
Moreover, the global economy is intricately connected to China's growth trajectory. As China undertakes the rebalancing process, the repercussions will be felt in sectors reliant on Chinese investment and consumption. Businesses and governments worldwide must closely monitor the situation and adapt to these changes.
This analysis highlights the importance of understanding the complexities of China's rebalancing process and its implications for the Chinese and global economies. As China grapples with these challenges, the world must brace itself for the changes arising from this monumental shift in the world's second-largest economy. Only time will tell if China's rebalancing efforts will successfully pave the way for a more stable and sustainable economic future.
TOP CHINESE PUMP ASSETSLet's take a look at the basic metrics of the most interesting assets of the market, which gave a profit of 4x-5x of the investment only on the spot. These assets are considered to be Chinese tokens, which pump the current market
Conflux ($CFX)
1. L1 blockchain
2. Price: $0.2
3. ATH Price: $1.5
4. Market.cap: $586m
5. FDMC: $1.4b
6. Changes in the last three months: +1000%
Alchemy Pay ($ACH)
Solution for payments
1. Price: $0.39
2. ATH Price: $0.12
3. Market.cap: $201m
4. FDMC: $396m
5. Changes in the last three months:: +400%
OAX ($OAX)
Crypto Foundation
1. Price: $0.23
2. ATH Price: $2.2
3. Market.cap: $18m
4. FDMC: $23m
5. Changes in the last three months:: +250%
OKB ($OKB)
Native token of the Okex exchange
1. Price: $49.72
2. ATH Price: $50
3. Market.cap: $2.9b
4. FDMC: $14.8b
5. Changes in the last three months:: +300%
TRON ($TRX)
L1 blockchain
1. Price: $0.068
2. ATH Price: $0.22
3. Market.cap: $6.3b
4. FDMC: $6.3b
5. Changes in the last three months:: +60%
What can we do now?
Search for new unknown tokens that can be connected to the Chinese metaverse.
Search for new narratives.
What do you think about these tokens? Share your opinion with us and check our links below.
Tell us about other top tokens of the current pump if you have some in mind. Thanks for reading!
$NIO earnings play 👁🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks*
*My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences*
*Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management
Entry: $21.31
Take profit: $27.50
Stop loss: $20
If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
NIO CARSif you don't like Tesla, Here Nio, the chinese version.
- Like Tesla, Nio makes luxury electric vehicles. Unlike Tesla, Nio does not make its own EVs, instead partnering with a state-owned auto manufacturer. Nio, Xpeng (XPEV) and Li Auto (LI) are startup rivals to Tesla in China, the world's fastest-growing EV market.
- Nio's great advantage is that its owners have the luxury of using both battery-swap and charging, reducing battery and range anxiety some might have with electric vehicles. In 2021, the founder, Li Bin, announced that Nio plans to expand to 25 different countries and regions by 2025.
Trading Parts :
- Notice the GAP in October 2022, around 10$. Then NIO started his first bullrun to 66$+.
- Right now the Gap has already been taken back in October 2022.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Buy Zones :
---------------------------------------------------------------
- Buy breakout around 13$
or
- Buy Retracement around 10$
TP : 26$ ish. ( at GAP zone )
SL : 5.8$
---------------------------------------------------------------
- Trading is Trading but i consider NIO as good long term investment, but it's just my humble opinion.
Happy Tr4Ding !
FXP | Chinese Stocks will Fall | LONGThe fund invests in financial instruments that ProShare Advisors believes, in combination, should produce daily returns consistent with the fund's investment objective. The index comprises 50 of the largest and most liquid Chinese stocks (H Shares, Red Chips and P Chips) listed and trading on the Hong Kong Exchange (HKEx). The fund is non-diversified.
YINN | Chinese 3X Bull ETF | LONGThe fund invests at least 80% of its total assets in equity securities of the index and in depositary receipts representing such securities. The index is designed to measure the equity market performance of investable publicly traded "China-based companies" whose primary business or businesses are in the Internet and Internet-related sectors, and are listed outside of Mainland China, as determined by the index provider. The fund is non-diversified.
Update on the Chinese YuanA few months ago, I proposed USDCNH/USDCNY consolidating for a bit and then going higher, as such strong moves usually follow through. The Chinese economy looks extremely weak for multiple reasons, and I see no way that the CNH/CNY won't lose much of its value relative to the dollar. Technically it is ready for another strong move higher, and the fact that Pelosi is visiting Taiwan could be the catalyst for a breakout.
Of course, I could be wrong, and the market has a pullback first. However, I think that would be a buy-the-dip opportunity. Going down to 6.6 would be a gift, and that's where I'd want to add to my long positions (short CNY). In my opinion, the market will take out the double top at 7.2$ first, maybe pull back, and then move significantly higher. However, my first target is a bit lower because I do some resistance there, as there was a breakdown that was never retested. Regardless of what your target is, the R/R here is tremendous.