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How much better can things get? Potential double-top.After reporting earnings earlier last week, shares of NVIDIA have been struggling to march higher, and if you wonder how this is possible despite astounding results, here is some food for thought. The tech giant has experienced an unprecedented rally of more than 360% since October 2022, and it is no secret that the revolution in the AI sector has highly contributed to this fact. It did not take long until the talk in the news was all about large corporations investing hundreds of billions of dollars to fund artificial intelligence research and about AI disrupting various fields and reshaping the world as we know it. With this narrative playing out, the tech giant delivered outstanding performance for the second quarter of fiscal year 2024. Its GAAP-calculated operating income was up by 1,263% YoY, net income by 843% YoY, and diluted earnings per share by 854% YoY; then, on top of that, in the third quarter of fiscal year 2024, operating income increased by another 53% QoQ, net income by 49% QoQ, and diluted earnings per share by 50% QoQ. While these are indeed incredible results, more often than not, when things are starting to be too good, the situation starts to beg the question of how much better they can get. Therefore, it is also important to consider the broader economic context. There is an apparent slowdown in multiple sectors outside of technology, like manufacturing, real estate, cargo transport, etc. These other sectors could eventually ripple into the tech industry, impacting overall economic growth and investment. Moreover, replicating the astonishing success of the last year indefinitely is improbable. Market saturation, increased competition, and potential regulatory changes are just a few other factors that could contribute to the normalization of growth rates. Regarding technicals, RSI, Stochastic, and MACD have started to decline in the past few days (on the daily chart), accompanied by the formation of a potential double-top pattern. As these developments are bearish in nature, we are growing increasingly suspicious about the upcoming move in the stock. Consequently, we will be attentive to NVIDIA’s performance in the following days and weeks. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of NVIDIA and simple support/resistance levels derived from peaks and troughs. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Slightly bearish Weekly time frame = Slightly bearish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by Tradersweekly
8
AMD - BULLISH SCENARIOAdvanced Micro Devices (AMD) has projected $2 billion in 2024 sales from a new chip designed to compete with Nvidia, helping their stock rebound after missing quarterly expectations. While their gaming and certain programmable chip segments faced challenges, AMD expects the MI300 chip to generate $400 million in Q4 revenue, with a 2024 sales forecast of $2 billion. AMD is preparing to launch the MI300X chip, aiming to rival Nvidia in the data center AI market. AMD's CEO, Lisa Su, mentioned that multiple large hyperscale customers have committed to using the MI300 chips. Despite these positive developments, other segments faced difficulties. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by legacyFXofficial
As NVIDIA faces more risks, questions remain unansweredNASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:GOOG NASDAQ:AMZN NASDAQ:INTC NASDAQ:AMD As the common market motion is embracing a recession, one of Bloomberg's Magnificent 7 fights hard to keep a stiff upper lip. But not only as the signs of the times currently stand, but also by their own decisions, NVIDIA will get in turmoil. Background In my view (working in IT for 15 years), the chip designer is overreaching its capacity with the following two factors. Planning not a new GPU, but a whole GPU architecture, for every year to release While GPUs became an essential part of many cutting edge technologies aside graphics, an architecture means to write drivers (computer software working as interpreter between devices) for the variety of operating systems currently at the market, which are, in this order, Linux, Android and Windows. Linux already despises the closed-source proprietary licensing model of drivers by NVIDIA, which can neither be changed nor get improved nor adapted to compatibility to Linux. An annual release of new architectures without more vertical integration of software development will result in a lack of support by the industry ecosystem, as the industry tends to adapt only to products which grow in relevance. Pick SQL, the database language. Every other year, a new complete ISO standard of SQL is released to implement, but as buying a whole single set of standard documents comes with high costs, 2.500 USD for paper, the market adoption of new and newest issues of the SQL standards are rare, even in enterprise software. Open source database software tends to implement whatever is available for either no or low cost, so they naturally would not implement the latest standard. The same dynamic will go on a new GPU architecture release every year, and NVIDIA, given the management is sane, will scrap that strategy after the first three or four cycles. Planning to challenge Intel, other CPU makers The most common processors, natural CPU chips built in every computing device, are coming from Intel or an Intel architecture, or ARM's RISCy architecture. Every successful processor ever made in the market had to either be made for a closed ecosystem of devices of their own (like the Zilog Z80 for Nintendo's Game Boy or any home computer of the 80's really, or any of Apple's devices) or it had to be compatible with Intel and its architecture and instruction set. Any other processor sold for general application in the past has failed to penetrate the market. And as Intel, as well as Intel-compatible processors from manufacturers like AMD, are widely common and available, NVIDIA faces the challenge to generate Unique Selling Points for its own CPU ambitions. What could that be? Lower prices? If NVIDIA thinks they could create the generations of CPUs to come in a much cheaper way, they would offer discounted hardware on the NVIDIA label, without holding to the promises everyone assumes with the brand: top-edge graphical calculation or AI. The margin would also challenge the stress-test of the ever-altering architecture leadership of Intel, giving Intel itself the opportunity to disrupt NVIDIA's development cycle by letting NVIDIA face the same challenges like Linux developers do when integrating NVIDIA's driver sets, with the additional risk that not every newly released architecture will sell. Additional features, AI? AI calculations are power-exhaustive, and delivering them on a CPU will add to the power consumption, and thereby energy costs, as much as overclocking already does. Heat development (and thereby fast aging) is a problem among the CPU industry of which sufficient and endurable solutions are rare. AI software runs in a cloud, preferrably, as the cloud would consist of multiple GPU cards which are cooled with means like heatpipes with chilled water or nitrogen, as well as a general A/C for the room. Describing all this already lets you picture any larger datacenter with its own powerplant, and if you can picture that, you know there is no consumer application for these kind of chips. AI-enhanced CPUs will eventually serve only a niche market, as datacenters would already have (matured and cheaper) GPUs to go for, which would by the way release annually and raise the cost, and as power grids worldwide are not ready to transport this kind of energy for a broad consumer approach. If any of that is true, what still goes for NVIDIA? NVIDIA will remain the most important infrastructure provider for datacenters, and by that extent, cloud providers. Neither Microsoft nor Google nor Amazon will be able to turn to other manufacturers, except they'd be successful in running ARM-driven datacenters , making the CPU strategy of NVIDIA even harder. Eventually datacenters will heterogenize in their inner structure to provide cost-effectively for different applications, from a homogenous set of almost equal hardware to a ring-like system for different classes of chips and applications. Many datacenters already either specialize for a certain kind of application or allow a general approach by heterogenizing their hardware, and this trend will continue and create more variety and diversification with coming hardware generations. NVIDIA, as a key infrastructure provider with a heavy foot in the AI field, will remain to be able to supply and influence the business of almost every other cloud-providing technology company, if NVIDIA only would reflect on its virtues, cap their endeavours and emphasize even more on its current strengths.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by Johnny_TV
1
The Semiconductor Industry and Texas Instruments Long TXN Company Overview: Texas Instruments (TXN) is a prominent and long-established semiconductor company headquartered in Dallas, Texas. Founded in 1930, TXN has evolved into a global leader in the semiconductor industry, with a diverse portfolio of analog and embedded processing products. Here are some key aspects of the company: Product Range: TXN specializes in analog and embedded processing semiconductors. Analog chips are designed to process real-world signals such as sound, light, temperature, and motion. They are used in a wide range of applications, from industrial and automotive systems to consumer electronics. As tensions between Taiwan and China continue to rise, it is a good idea to consider the semiconductor business as an industry to invest in. The largest chip manufacturer in Taiwan by far is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC). Although TSMC focuses on digital semiconductors, the hype alone could lead many investors to add TXN to their portfolio simply because they don't understand the difference. TXN is also in a unique position, where in the event of a China-Taiwan conflict, it could certainly garner increased government funding. We are currently watching three main price points. 1. $156.00 2. $167.00 3. $186.00 We are currently hitting the direct top of our Ichimoku cloud. If we bounce here i anticipate All targets being hit within 2 months. Especially if we see geopolitical events continue in their current manner.
NASDAQ:TXNLong
by Helios_Capital_Investment
1
Apple Inc. : Potential Harmonic; Bearish ConsolidationAAPL has been on the rise ever since it broke above the descending Bullish Dragon Trend Line and confirmed the middle of the Trading Range as support, but as it's risen, both the PPO and RSI have been consolidating tightly within the Overbought Zone which also aligns with the PCZ of a Bearish Deep Gartley on the PPO; just recently, price has hit the HOP level of a Potential Bearish Shark pattern. If we start to see the RSI and PPO come down sharply from the Overbought zones and closer to the 50 levels, then we could confirm a safer Bearish Entry with the stop marginally above the HOP level and target the 0.382 and 0.618 Fibonacci Retraces below.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by RizeSenpai
1
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) | Technically a Good Opportunity!Hi, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), have been waiting for that pullback and here it is. Advanced Micro Devices designs microprocessors for the computer and consumer electronics industries. The majority of its sales are in the personal computer and data center markets via CPUs and GPUs. Additionally, the firm supplies the chips found in prominent game consoles such as the Sony PlayStation and Microsoft Xbox. AMD acquired graphics processor and chipset maker ATI in 2006 in an effort to improve its positioning in the PC food chain. Technically the area around $100 is the key level for AMD. Again, this round number, this psychological number plays a big role on the stock charts. Technical analysis is not so hard just observe these nr's, and you should be okay ;) To the point, let's describe and count the criteria which make me think that this shown box can be a good spot to grab it: 1. The round number $100 is one of them in the list which can act as a good support level but around it has several quite good criteria which match with it... 2. The strong horizontal price zone. The strongest criterion and probably the strongest price range on the entire AMD chart. We have quite a few things which confirm it. Firstly, $90 to $105 has had multiple rejections in either direction since the end of 2020. It has worked as a support level, it has worked as a resistance level - 9 times this range has changed some direction on the chart. The second confirmation that it is a strong area is the breakouts. In July 2021 the price of AMD managed to break the first time above $100 and made a perfect retest after that which guides the price to ATH levels. The break was made with a strong and powerful candle. The power is needed to make this happen. This time we have two strong weekly candles smashing down the $100, so the power is there and currently we haven't seen a retest yet. We'll wait for it. So, the strong horizontal level is confirmed with strong breakouts and can act as a key support level to end the short-term correction. 3. Fibonacci retracement 38%. Fibo 38% retracement level is great when we have some sort of momentum involved in stocks. Currently, I can say and obviously, you can see, that there is momentum. Perfect match with other criteria and one extra confluence factor added to the optimal buying zone. 4. The trendline. There are two types of trendlines. One is drawn from bodies (dotted: from candle closes, from weekly closes) and the second one is drawn from wicks. Never try to draw from the wick to the body or vice versa. The trendline is the most subjective criterion considering technical analysis and the rules must have in place! Currently, the sweet spot should stay in the middle of these trendlines and it also matches this possible reversal box. 5. In general price action with new mid-term higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL). 2022 was full of new lows without a single higher high. 2023 is the opposite, since the beginning of 2023 we have seen a strong uptrend with clean and strong higher highs and higher lows. It will give us that needed confirmation that investors are interested in and we have to figure out from where we can jump in... - Considering technical analysis then the optimal buying zone should stay between $90 to $105. Good luck, Vaido
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by VaidoVeek
2
AMD: Beating Market Expectation, Bullish Bias Ahead?Hello Fellow Global Stock Trader, Here's a Technical outlook for AMD Stock! Price Action Analysis After Rebounding on the Fibonacci Golden Ratio Area, AMD has broken out of the bearish channeling pattern. The breakout could confirm a possible bullish trend ahead. The MACD Indicator made a golden cross, signifying a possible upside movement to the target area. Fundamental Drives - AMD Q4 Earning 2022 was beating the analyst expectations: Revenue: $5.6 Billion versus $5.5 Billion Expected Adjusted EPS: $0.69 versus $0.67 Expected -Lisa Su plans to release AI chips All other explanations are presented on the chart. The roadmap will be invalid after reaching the target/support area. Support the channel by smashing the rocket button and sharing your opinions in the comment below! "Disclaimer: The outlook is only for educational purposes, not a recommendation to put a long or short position on the AMD"
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by financialfreedomgoals101
AMD to resume ZIG ZAG UPSIDEAs we analyze the 4 hour chart of AMD we have continued to seem the same pattern inside the "macro" blue channel and I believe we continue to grind higher inside this channel. As you can see there are 3 other channels inside the blue channel (the white channels) which show a "bullish" correction then a push higher every time. I am looking for AMD to do the same thing until we see bearish signs (price heading out of the blue channel)... Until then I will continue to play the saying "trend is your friend"... Let's continue to look for upside on AMD.
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by UnknownUnicorn910751
When Chips Are Down, They Rebound Slowly But StronglyWhen Chips are down; invest if you can and hedge if you must. Having soared in 2020 & 2021, semiconductor shares tanked brutally as tremors from geopolitics, sinking consumer confidence and bloated inventory struck. Q4 overhang is dragging the industry down in the near term, which might have set a bearish outlook in the short-term, but times are changing. Structural forces and business cyclicality are now becoming robust tail winds for semiconductors, bringing a bullish outlook in the medium-to-long term for the sector. Therefore, this case study argues that an asynchronous time spread in CME E-Mini PHLX Semiconductor Sector Futures ("CME Semiconductor Futures") could potentially deliver a 2.8x reward to risk ratio by first taking a short position in futures expiring in March 2023 followed by a path-dependant long position in futures expiring in September 2023. INDUSTRY ON THE CUSP OF A SUPERCYCLE Chips everywhere. Semiconductors are ubiquitous as products become sophisticated. Rapid growth of mobile devices, emergence of EVs, and rising cloud adoption have created endless demand for higher processing speeds and larger memory. Chipmakers have benefited from this trend. Anticipated exponential growth in consumer durables, IoT, gaming, EVs, and AI/ML will translate into strong sustained demand for chips. Speaking at World Economic Forum, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella asserted that AI would go mainstream not in years but in months. Emergence of generative AI will form a fresh stream of demand for chips. EVs require twice as much chip content than traditional ones. Rising cloud usage will amplify demand from datacentres for graphics processing units (GPUs). In short, semiconductor industry is on the cusp of a demand super cycle. DEMYSTIFYING THE SEMICONDUCTOR INDEX The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ("SOX") is a market capitalization-weighted index comprising of the top thirty (30) semiconductor firms listed in the US. Top names include Nvidia, TSMC, and ASML forming 48% of SOX. The top ten comprise 80% of the SOX. SOX rallied 202% from its low in March 2020 to its high in November 2021. As monetary policy shifted from QE to QT, SOX plunged 46% in 2022 touching its lowest level in October 2022. Since then, it has bounced back 43%, outperforming both NASDAQ-100 and S&P 500 which are up merely 10% during the same period. A CYCLICAL INDUSTRY Semiconductors industry is inherently cyclical given the considerable time lapse between spotting fresh demand and matching them with new supply. In a recent report, JP Morgan cited that semiconductor stocks are close to a cyclical bottom. Each time the industry hits a bottom, it recovers impressively. In one-year and three-years following a cyclical dip, shares in this sector spike 40% and 95% on average, respectively. While short term demand looks bleak on waning consumer confidence, the USD 600-billion industry's long-term prospect looks resolutely bright. LET THE AI WARS BEGIN Revolutionary AI: ChatGPT made its debut in November. It sprinted to a million users in just five days. The excitement in generative AI is palpable. It will revolutionise content generation while delivering vast productivity gains in others. Inflection ahead: AI is approaching an inflection point. Its usage is going mainstream. Expect tech giants to invest heavily to outcompete. If this marks the start of AI wars, the semiconductor firms that make AI work will harvest outsized profits. Shovel makers hit jackpot: During the gold rush, it was the shovel makers that got rich more so than the diggers. In this AI gold rush, the shovel makers (i.e., the semiconductor stocks) are set to reap enormous gains. Nvidia already shining: Nvidia is the market leader in GPUs whose parallel processing capabilities form the core for delivering AI. ChatGPT adoption alone could bring incremental revenues of up to USD 11 billion over the next year, Citigroup estimates. TSMC & ASML well positioned: Nvidia GPU production depends on two firms - (a) the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (TSMC), and (b) ASML Holdings (ASML). Berkshire stake in TSMC: TSMC recently announced stunning Q4 earnings. Its net sales grew 42.8% YoY, while its net profits & EPS were up 78% YoY contributing to an ROE of 26.4%. Little wonder that TSMC was one of Warren Buffett's recent investments where his firm acquired USD four billion of TSMC shares last November. ASML dominance: Meanwhile ASML commands a monopoly on key tech (Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography or EUV). EUV is used in producing cutting-edge nano chips that AI requires. ASML is set to secure a windfall on rising AI adoption. CHIPS ACT TO RESHORE PRODUCTION Supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic exposed the vulnerability of over-reliance on globalisation. Russia-Ukraine conflict caused adverse impact with Russia being a major supplier of Palladium and Ukraine being a key source of Neon gas. To reduce over-reliance in a key industry, US last year legislated the CHIPS Act which is aimed at reshoring production on US soil supported by more than USD 150 billion of grants and tax incentives. NO PAIN, NO GAIN IN A V-SHAPED PATH AHEAD Supply ramped-up but a little too late: Clogged supply chains plus demand spike during the pandemic fuelled chip shortage. Ramped up production which always takes a long lead time arrived but at a time of pale consumer demand (PC demand down 28% YoY) late last year. Frail consumer sentiment: Persistent inflation, recession fears, and uncertain outlook, meant lower consumer durable sales. This has slashed demand for semiconductors resulting in one of the largest inventory corrections in the industry. The sector is cooling faster and getting colder than expected. Firms face a tough market saddled with excess inventory compounded by frail end-markets except for automotives. Downgraded chips: Intel reported a loss for Q4 last year and expects a weak first half this year with return to growth in second half. Earnings from other industry majors point to significant headwinds. Analysts have downgraded several chip stocks. Fund flows in ETFs: Fund flows into and out of leveraged ETFs this year show investor activity is moving in tandem with these macro shifts. The Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x ETF (3 times long exposure to SOX) suffered net outflows of $341 million while the Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3x ETF (3 times short exposure to SOX) gained net inflows of $1.1 billion. Insiders are Net Sellers: Insider Activity among majors show that they have been net sellers over the last three months except for Qualcomm, Intel and Applied Materials. Bullish Price Targets: In sharp contrast to this gloomy outlook, analysts covering the top stocks anticipate an average +15% price gain over the next 12-months. TRADE SET-UP This case study proposes a two-legged calendar spread as set out below. Each CME Semiconductor Futures contract provides exposure to twenty-five (25) index points approximating to USD 75,000 in notional with required margin of USD 5,900. TRADE LEG 1 : A short position in the contract expiring in March 2023 will provide exposure to the short-term correction. Entry: 2978 Target: 2571 Stop Loss: 3180 Profit At Target: $10,175 Loss At Stop: $5,050 TRADE LEG 2 : A long position in CME Semiconductor Futures expiring in September 2023 will provide exposure to recovery in the latter part of the year. Entry: 2710 Target: 3718 Stop Loss: 2410 Profit At Target: $25,200 Loss At Stop: $7,500 Aggregate Reward-Risk Ratio: 2.8x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. This material has been published for general education and circulation only. It does not offer or solicit to buy or sell and does not address specific investment or risk management objectives, financial situation, or needs of any person. Advice should be sought from a financial advisor regarding the suitability of any investment or risk management product before investing or adopting any investment or hedging strategies. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. All examples used in this workshop are hypothetical and are used for explanation purposes only. Contents in this material is not investment advice and/or may or may not be the results of actual market experience. Mint Finance does not endorse or shall not be liable for the content of information provided by third parties. Use of and/or reliance on such information is entirely at the reader’s own risk. These materials are not intended for distribution to, or for use by or to be acted on by any person or entity located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, use or action would be contrary to applicable laws or regulations or would subject Mint Finance to any registration or licensing requirement.
TVC:SOXLong
by mintdotfinance
2
Texas Instruments (TXN) - Is the stock overvalued?About Texas Instruments Texas Instruments (TXN) is a technology company that designs and manufactures a wide range of products, including analog and embedded processing chips. The company operates in two segments, Analog and Embedded Processing, and its products are used in various applications, including automotive, communication infrastructure, industrial, and personal electronics. Strong financial performance in recent years In recent years, Texas Instruments has seen strong financial performance, driven by strong demand for its products and increasing demand for its embedded processing solutions. The company has consistently delivered revenue and earnings growth, driven by its broad portfolio of products and its ability to continuously innovate and bring new products to market. Is Texas Instruments (TXN) stock overvalued? From a technical perspective, the stock price of Texas Instruments has been in an uptrend since the beginning of 2020, and has outperformed the S&P 500 index over that time period. The stock price has consistently made higher highs and higher lows, indicating strong bullish sentiment. In addition, the stock has consistently traded above its 200-day moving average, which is often used as a measure of long-term trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator that measures the strength of a stock's price action. The RSI for Texas Instruments is currently in bullish territory, indicating that the stock is overbought and may be due for a pullback. However, the RSI can remain in overbought territory for an extended period of time, so it is important to consider other technical indicators when making a trading decision. One potential area of concern for the stock is its valuation. Texas Instruments currently trades at a premium to its historical valuation, which could indicate that the market is pricing in high expectations for future growth. In addition, the stock's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is higher than the industry average, which could make it vulnerable to a pullback if the company's earnings growth slows or if the market becomes more cautious. Conclusion In conclusion, Texas Instruments has demonstrated strong financial performance and technical strength in recent years. However, investors should be aware of the stock's elevated valuation and consider other factors, such as the company's earnings growth and the overall market sentiment, when making a trading decision. It is always recommended to consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Disclaimer Norvestio AS only offers analysis based on analyst estimates and historical data, and our articles are never meant to be taken as financial advice. It doesn’t represent an advice to buy or sell any stock, and it doesn’t take into consideration your goals or financial position.
NASDAQ:TXN
by norvestio