Chips
AMB BULLISH SCENARIOThe tech market suffered some losses while the USD gained against the major currency basket, last few weeks we can observe good catalysts on the hawkish Fed moves and future stability backed by again the Fed backing off the interest rate hike button, this might help make some more cash available. The rally is projected for the entire sector as well.
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Looks very strongPrice is oversold in the weekly timeframe and has already bounced off twice the strong support with lots of volume the two times. Is very early to tell if is forming a double bottom, but it looks that market doesn't want the price to go lower under the support. This a long term holding, maybe a couple of years but the risk reward is too good to ignore it. On the other hand, check my previous post lines below on AVGO, another chip maker.
Visa - Potential technical rebound1. Fortune_TD, Fortune Banker trend :
Fortune TD 9, TD 13and Force 9 (from 25 Sep) show the trend exhaustion range, the green bar shows this is a potential share pull back. .
Fortune Banker trend, green line shows the banker chips flow in at the bottom, red lines show the profit money at bottom as well, then short money cross its 5 days average, potentially an uptrend begin.
2. First Up and Retrace :
03 Oct 2022, short money trend line gold cross, followed by the bottom exhaustion range signal TD 9, 13 and Force 9
First up happened followed by a the retrace as indicated by TD and share pull back signal.
3. Diverge:
Fortune Crown, red dot shows the share price is at bottom, and there is a bottom divergence today, the green bar momentum shows a positive momentum, potential uptrend after divergence.
Fortune Banker trend, short money trend line shows the bottom divergence, potential uptrend begin.
4. Summary:
Based on above analysis, there is a potential of technical rebound after a mid term down trend, cut loss 184.66.
CVX - Short term support and resistance1. Fortune_TD, Fortune Banker trend, Fortune Crown stage:
28 Sep 2022, Fortune TD 9 and Force 9 show the trend exhaustion range, the green bar on the previous day shows this is a potential share pull back. .
03 Oct 2022, Fortune Crown red dot reverse from bottom
03 Oct 2022, Fortune Banker trend, green line shows the banker chips flow in from 26 Sep 2022, then short money cross its 5 days average on 03 Oct 2022, potentially a reversal at the bottom.
2. Support and resistance:
the support is the lower price of share pull back signal (green bar), at 140.46.
The 1st resistance is the gap down on 10 Jun 2022, at 173.65.
4. Summary:
Based on above analysis, if the share price hit the resistance 173, and the buy point is 152, short term profit is approximate 11%. If there is no sell signal at the resistance level , then it will develop into main wave.
Disclaimer : no recommendation of buy/sell, purely for TA learning and sharing.
TSM ShortTSM has created gap galore on its rally up. with the vix down at 20, indices at resistance, the 4 gaps created, RSI over cooked at 80 and a wedge created, id say a breakdown below wedge trend line around 80 and you'll see the first gap fill at least at 77then 72. big sell volume come at the top of this last run too.
CSCO - Weekly chart in exhaustion range1. Fortune_TD, Fortune Banker trend, Fortune Crown stage:
Analysis on weekly chart
03 Oct 2022, Fortune TD 13 show the trend exhaustion range, the green bar shows this is a potential share pull back.
03 Oct 2022, Fortune Crown security line is at bottom, still going down, there is no red dot yet.
03 Oct 2022, Fortune Banker trend, green line shows the banker chips flow in, but the short money still not yet gold cross its 5 days average.
2. Potential opportunity:
waiting for the share price break out the green bar high 42.25.
3. Summary:
Based on above analysis, the share price is downtrend in daily and weekly chart, so using weekly chart to identify the bottom area instead of using weekly chart.
Disclaimer : no recommendation of buy/sell, purely for TA learning and sharing.
DJI - Rebound1. Youda_Potential, Fortune_TD, Fortune Banker trend, Fortune Crown stage:
Analysis on weekly chart
10 Oct 2022 Youda Potential shows the midterm (brown line) is going downward, but the DJI index hit the green band, potential to be supported.
03 Oct 2022, Fortune TD show the green bar, there is a potential share pull back, if break out the high of green bar, rebound on weekly chart will be confirmed, the resistance is around 32278
03 Oct 2022, Fortune Crown security line is at bottom, still going down, there is no red dot yet.
03 Oct 2022, Fortune Banker trend, green line shows the banker chips flow in, but the short money still not yet gold cross its 5 days average. The red lines crossed above the green line, this is a positive signal for rebound.
Analysis on daily chart
Since the index potential be supported as shown in weekly chart, change the timeframe to daily chart for potential bottom catch oppurtunity.
13 Oct 2022, Youda Potential shows the midterm (brown line) is going down, and also the long term (red bad) downward trend. Thus, if index rise, this is considered as rebound in daily timeframe only.
Fortune TD green bar (share pull back signal) shows that its high was broken out on 13 Oct, this is a positive signal of the rebound.
Fortune Crown security (red dot) is rising from bottom, green candle (positive momentum) is going upward as well. The rebound is still ongoing unless the red dot disappear and green candle turn red.
Fortune Banker trend, red line is above green line and the short money gold cross its 5 days average. There is a bottom diverge on 13 Oct as well
2. Potential opportunity:
daily chart still in downtrend, but potential a rebound is in the progress. support 28855.
3. Summary:
Based on above analysis, the index is downtrend in daily timeframe, so weekly chart to identify the bottom area and support strength, instead of using daily chart for support and resistance.
Disclaimer : no recommendation of buy/sell, purely for TA learning and sharing.
The world no longer needs chips! LOLThis is in my opinion like buying oil stocks in the march 2020 crash. Semis to technology is like oil to transport. The world will not survive without either. So I place my long here today confidently regardless of the next few weeks or months. I will hold this until we re-reach our previous ATH which will be sooner than most anticipate. I expect by 2025 this will rereach those highs and achieve a much higher value by 2030. This is a serious chance to change your wealth status. Buy red sale green as always this is not financial advice. Do not be short-sided with this dip. Get in front of big money. Retail is gone from the markets, now all that is left is big money to choose their picks... high probability this bounces soon major.
INTEL OversoldIntel testing critical channel support.
RSI has never been this over sold.
Accumulating between $20 - $27 in my ROTH IRA for long term hold.
NFA
NVDA Bearish Bias Technically ans Nibbling PersonallyNVDA is 65% from its All Time Highs of 346.10. Granted that doesn't mean because it is so far down from the highs that it warrants a 'buy signal'; nevertheless, it is not a lager stock in my opinion. It's just being beaten down with the rest of the market in a unified order. After-all, it is the Futures Markets and Major Indexes that carry the stocks with it.
The weight of the evidence is also important as the 52 week lows continue to accumulate, thus, bring down more and more stocks with is. You cannot expect the market to go up if you have 3,000 stocks making new lows each and every day.
NVDA is an AI driver and soon enough that will be the game changer. Not to mention Chips are in just about everything we use today. While the pundits trash the Chips in the media (while nibbling) they'll soon reverse those comments (like many others) after everyone is finished accumulating and the rotation of the market trickles upwards.
ALL Futures Markets have now (today) his their June lows, so we will see if the markets go into a free fall or build off those levels (once back above them).
Horizontal Lines provide levels for support / resistance and the yellow Targets provide (either direction) potential. You can also trade within the horizontal lines or use those as triggers for entries, etc. The White horizontal levels in the upper part of the chart are where major supply areas are houses. Eventually, we'd expect price to challenge those.
I continue to nibble at NVDA since late Friday.
Nvidia draws attention back to Pelosi's stock picks Stock investments by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her husband, venture capitalist Paul Pelosi, are again in the spotlight after shares of Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) declined again after the pair reduced their interest in the semiconductor company.
Pelosi is the first female Speaker of the US House of Representatives and second in line to the presidency (after Vice President Kamala Harris). Considering her very public position, her financial matters and by extension, her husband's, always attract attention.
In July, the couple sold 25,000 Nvidia shares in a transaction valued between $1 million and $5 million. The shares were sold at $165.05 apiece, reflecting a loss of $340,000. On Sept. 1, Nvidia fell 18.3%, and if not for the July transaction, the Pelosis would have lost $753,000, the news platform added.
While the decision may have just been due to good investor instinct, it is being marred by controversies. The filing of a bill in Congress, as well as a visit in Taiwan are making it harder to simply brush some of the controversies under the rug.
Semiconductor Boost
Paul Pelosi invested in Nvidia on June 17 with the exercise of 200 call options for shares in the company at a price of $100 per share. The transaction was also valued between $1 million and $5 million..
It came at a time when the CHIPS Act is tabled for approval in Congress. The bill, which President Biden signed into law in August, aims to strengthen domestic semiconductor manufacturing, design and research. According to TechRepublic, the law will provide $52 billion for semiconductor manufacturing incentives and research investments, as well as a 25% investment tax credit for semiconductor manufacturing, which would be a great help to companies like Nvidia.
New York Post columnist Charles Gasparino labelled the investment the "latest home run" for Pelosi, who Gasparino wrote, "has been killing it in the stock market in recent years," winning with companies that benefit from governmental legislation.
Congresswoman Pelosi supported the CHIPS Act. Following the July sale, people have started singing a different tune that the transaction may have been done to alleviate conflict of interest concerns.
Or it could be another smart investment move. Nvidia fell nearly 3% at close of trading Sept. 2. It has been on the red that week, likely due to the US government's restriction of the company's sales to China.
Another event connecting the House Speaker to the semiconductor industry is her visit to Taiwan on Aug. 2. The visit, which according to BBC was "strongly condemned" by China, involved a meeting with Mark Liu, chairman of the world's biggest chipmaker, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. or TSMC (TPE: 2330).
Other Investments
Aside from Nvidia, the Pelosis have other investments in public companies. Business Insider reported in July that they have shares in companies including:
AllianceBernstein (NYSE: AB),
the class A (NASDAQ: GOOGL) and C stocks (NASDAQ: GOOG) of Alphabet,
Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN),
American Express (NYSE: AXP),
Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL),
Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU),
Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT),
Paypal (NASDAQ: PYPL),
Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM),
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), Visa (NYSE: V),
Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS),
and Warner Bros. Discovery Series A (WNASDAQ: WBD).
Speaker Pelosi's involvement in these companies prompted a legislation that would prohibit members of the US Congress from trading stocks. After months of resistance, Pelosi dropped opposition of the proposed legislation.
Insider included the House Speaker in its list of 25 richest members of Congress, with a net worth of at least $46.1 million. Amid insinuations that this may have something to do with information she passes on to help her husband with his investment decisions, the congresswoman told reporters in July that this was never the case.
$AMD Inverse Head & Shoulder - Bring the dip ill buy the chips!Semi-conductors/chip stocks took a big dip this week after more negative earnings reported.
I am watching this inverse head & Shoulder pattern for a reversal with huge upside potential.
Declining selling volume.
Near oversold RSI
High risk (manage risk) as we are at a major support level. If we lose this level, the weight could get really heavy back into the 70's range.. are you catching my drift?
NVDA Continued Downside RisksThe chip sector has been riding high on assumed strong demand for chips around EV and common goods. I'm not a firm believer this sector will be as bullish and as 'in demand' going into the winter months as countries are starting to experience expansions of higher inflation, company layoffs, and tighter budgets by both companies and consumers. Eventually there will be a time and place for chip demand; however, I don't believe that time is now.
Keep in mind NVDA reports earnings in two days.
SHORT SEMICONDUCTORS ON NEWS- SOXSAMEX:SOXS
Semiconductors have been giving some cautious guidance suggesting a market downturn,
supply chain issues and the recession fears. Vehcicles are being shipped to dealers lacking
some "chips" ; in the meanwhile, the CHIP acts hopes to stabilize things.
SOXS a ETF shorting the semiconductor industry #X leverage as the inverse of SOXL
The 4H chart of SOXS shows an EMA ribbon divergence, a market low with a Double or
Triple Bottom and an Asymmetrical Inverse Head and Shoulders with a neckline trendline
Marking a breakout just above the current market price.
This appears to be a good swing long trade setup or call option entry ripe for the taking.
SOXS to SOXL ratio DAILY CHARTAMEX:SOXL
This chart strives to setup a trading plan where the SOXS and SOXL
are oscillated. They are 3X leveraged ETFs with great range.
SOXS was up 400% YTD at its peak. The new CHIPS
ACT is a catalyst for US semiconductor manufactures
Right now the ratio is on a downtrend, meaning Sell SOXS
or BUY SOXL or a combination of each.
I believe that this strategy could yield 5X annually
to investors or long-term swing traders with little effort
especially if an alert is employed to notify the ratio
is changing trend direction at a pivot.
The timeframe could be lower but then the number
of trades is likely to increase as is the amount
of profit. This could be backtested by those
familiar with the mechanics of doing so.
AMD to retest 80 on a c wave sell off?I'm currently short tech via $tecs.. AMD showing a possible c wave sell off to a D leg buy which I have an inverted head and shoulders pattern forming
Double whammy of demand contraction and political leverageSummary
The semiconductor sector is expected to enter a difficult period with demand contraction due to recession and crypto winter. As the US government is increasing the effort to use semiconductors as a leverage to put pressure on China, companies in the sector might be forced to prioritize the national political agenda against profit and growth , which further amplifies the negative impact from slowing demand.
Demand contraction
The US economy officially entered a technical recession as the GDP figure announced this week unexpectedly shrank again by 0.9% , making a 2 quarters consecutive decline. Large employers such as Amazon are also announcing their layoff plan to better weather the worsening economic outlook. Companies downsizing will reduce the demand for office electronics such as laptops and work phones.
Although the commonly reported U3 unemployment rate remains stable at 3.6%, the U6 unemployment rate has actually increased for 2 consecutive months from 6.6% to 7% . With states continuing to pair back the covid unemployment benefit, more people are forced to re-enter the job market which in some cases the pay are not even as good as the unemployment benefit they have been receiving. The reducing disposable income of the US consumers is likely to negatively impact the demand for goods, especially for the non-essential durable consumer product such as electronics. High food and energy prices also contribute to such change in spending allocation.
Political leverage
Semiconductor chips are one of the most critical building blocks for most electronic products. The new product trend such as electric vehicles further push up the demand for chips. To put it into perspective, a Ford Focus uses roughly 300 semiconductor chips, whereas the electric Mach-e utilizes almost 3,000 semiconductor chips. The US government has been using national security reasons to block companies from selling gears for fabricating advanced chips (<10nm) to China since the Trump era. This week, the Biden administration has notified equipment suppliers such as NASDAQ:KLAC and NASDAQ:LRCX that the restriction is further tightened to <14nm , and it will also cover fabrication plants run by non-Chinese companies such as NYSE:TSM in China. Semiconductors will continue serve as a tool to slow Chinese growth at the cost of industry profitability.
Earlier this week the US Congress had passed the chips act and approved $52 billion in funding for domestic semiconductor manufacturing. While there is definitely a strategic necessity to rebuild the US fabrication ability given the political tension between China and Taiwan , the difficulty to establish a fabrication facility should not be underestimated, if you look at how hard even for Samsung to catch up TSM on defect rate especially for the <7nm advanced chips. For most semiconductor companies it is not just about the funding but also if there is a profitable way out for domestic production, or it is going to be a capital blackhole that keeps sucking investment without meaningful outcome.
Technical discussion
The US equity market is currently rebounding as rate expectation cooled off due to increasing risk of recession. S&P500 and Nasdaq100 have already broken through the 50 days moving average and are now challenging the Jun rebound peak. The 20 days moving average is also catching up and is about to sit on top of the 50 days moving average. In fact, the sustainability of this rebound will depend on how long can the 20 days stay above the 50 days moving average, as (1) upward pointing 20 days and 50 days moving average, with (2) 20 days higher than the 50 days moving average are the basic forms of a bull market.
S&P500
NASDAQ100
In this regard, by comparing SOXX and QQQ, one can visualize the sector discount due to the double whammy discussed above. Although SOXX has also broken through the 50 days moving average, the 20 days moving average is still further away from the 50 days moving average , which makes it a better short candidate compared to QQQ for those who believe the recent uptrend is a bear rebound but not the beginning of a bull.
Here are the levels SOXX trader should pay attention to:
Downside Resistance
370 - 385: 20 days and 50 days moving average levels
326.7: Jul-05 52 weeks low
270-280: Post-covid bull breakout level in 2020-Jun
Upside Resistance
433.99: Jun-02 rebound peak
455-465: 250 days moving average level
501.09: Mar-29 rebound peak
While our view toward the semiconductor sector remains bearish, shorting too early in a rebound can be very costly to traders. It is recommended to scale in the position either when SOXX itself, or at least until the border markets show sign of momentum decline (e.g. reverse hammer candlestick pattern)
Note: For traders who wish to trade leveraged ETF such as AMEX:SOXL (3x bullish) or AMEX:SOXS (3x bearish), it is still recommended to use the non leverage version SOXX for technical analysis purposes. As the daily 3x process sometimes will shift the resistance level and make the reading less accurate.
my view on the (tech) marketI still don't think it is over and it can get very bloody. There are a lot of companies affected by the still not perfect again working supply chain on one side and decreasing demand because of cost of living. This will affect the whole hardware and software industrie IMO, even cloud and advertisers (will happen later) and we can alright read that some manufacturers of consumer products have full stocks (graphic card manufacturers for example which get supplied by NV). I think this can take up to one year before we see this everywhere in the tech market. This little dip does not reflect the real impact. Just my point of view, no financial advice.
Taiwanese Semiconductors: Piercing Line Visible on the WeeklyWe have a Textbook Confirmed Piercing Line Visible on the Weekly on the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company I was made aware of this a few days ago but opted to wait for the earnings report before taking action. We got a positive report so I am now taking action and my Bullish Target for TSMC will be around $100-$110 to fill the Gap Visible on the Daily Timeframe.
$TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing WYCKOFF$TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. completed a clear as day WYCKOFF distribution TOP.
Currently it is sitting on major support. Losing this $76 area would be bearish to $60 because there isn't much support below $76 to hold it up.
$TSM is GAP city (Gaps are marked in Red), big gap below Support and many gaps above.
So far, this stock has not shown any signs of reversal, however $TSM is a giant in chip manufacturing. TSM makes $aapl chips and with ongoing shortages they are well positioned for advantage as these tech giants add autonomous driving to their business plans. Financially they are well positioned for growth in the years to come.
AMD - Quick analyses Short TermI hope everyone had a great weekend.
AMD. Here is a quick review of a few possibilities and ideas.
I have been tracking this very large ascending channel (black line)
Last Friday, price broke down below the trendline, we can consider a quick retest on smaller time frames (not a strong retest) and price kept on moving lower.
One of my rules to trade breakouts / breakdowns is to wait a full candle close outside a trendline and use that candle's top/bottom as an entry. AMD has not yet done that. (94.30 which would be my entry)
For this week, I will favor the downside as long as price is below this channel.
If you look left, there is some immediate support at around 93.85 (5/12) so this would be the first target. Below that 91.70 and 89.45
If price breaks below 88.40 there is a big chance we test the lows at 82 / 80.
AMD daytrade ideaDespite market weakness, AMD has been holding and battling the psychological $100 level.
Also, I can see that a possible symmetrical triangle (a little wonky) black lines.
My plan into tomorrow is watching the direction of this move.
Upside scenario: Above $93.83 would long it targeting $96 and above that $100
Downside scenario: I would wait to see if price will break the bottom of the triangle, if it does i will enter short below the break and target $90 and $88.70
There is no need to have a bias in this market, just play what the day brings.
Good luck.
