NVDA [Update]So far on NVDA we are still up nicely on our original idea and as we predicted NVDA is now putting all of our fib levels to the litmus test as it finds itself right in the middle zone of the entire fib retracement.
I expected the .383 to be properly tested before liftoff and so far it is holding up.
If it can continue to hold, NVDA will find itself breaking out once more as a bullish falling wedge is now being painted on the 4 hour timeframe.
One could debate if this is valid or not due to the breakdown out of its lower trendline, and that is fine. Because what we are most interested in is the upper trendline of the falling wedge as it appears to be serving as resistance on the price.
This is not something to ignore as supply lines like this can often be a warning of an impending bearish downtrend if price continues to fail when touching it.
So for this reason I am moving my stop losses up to around $189.79. The reason for this is because of not only the bearish trendline over our head, but because a breaking to the downside of the .382 fib level with a confirming candle on the 4 hour could mean a retest of much deeper levels at or around the bottom of the falling wedge or our .236 fibonacci level. So closing my position in profit and buying right back in at a discount is what I will be looking for in the near future.
In the meantime, however, I am still in my long but I am monitoring closely. NVDA will need to get moving and break the red trendline but ultimately put in a higher high in price by breaking the .618 fibonacci level over our head but that discussion will be kept reserve for a future post or update.
Chips
NVDA Buy Levels [Post-Stock Split]So things got a little weird today at the open with the stock split as many traders checked their holdings to see NVDA down -70% today.
Once it adjusted and all of the speculative traders jumped ship, Nvidia found itself spending most of the day battling at our .236 fib level, which is now $185 approximately. For now it has found itself above this level after bouncing beautifully off of the floor of the fib extension at around $178.
As always, I am waiting patient for a full body candle close above our .236 fib level on the 4 hour.
Keep an eye on the open tomorrow, as this asset is still most likely trying to regain its footing after what has been a very volatile past 2 weeks.
It is in my opinion that as long as we hold where we are currently, entries for a long is fair game. HOWEVER, beware that if you open below this level tomorrow, or confirm a 4 hour candle close below this level, all bets are off and you would be wise to keep patient and allow the price action to play out as risk below the .236 becomes difficult to size up.
If you are long, make sure you have either stops or at the very least price alerts set up for $185 incase it breaks.
Considering the wicks we had today both to the upside and downside on the 4 hour chart, things are very indecisive at the moment so I am ok with simply continuing to monitor.
Also, if this level does break down and confirm, a retest of $178 would be in store. From a trader perspective, if there is a retest it will be important that it bounces and does not come back to it again anytime soon. Too many retests of $178 would put this fib retracement at risk of being violated.
On the flipside, respect and support of the current fib near $185 (.236 fib) could be the buy opportunity patient traders have been waiting for.
Below you will find my price levels after the stock split I am looking at. This was found using the same method as in the pre-stock split idea.
The same buy ladder from that idea can be applied here as well. The beauty of this is that the buy ladder works better on the way up than it does when price is falling down.
$178
$185
$190
$194
$198
$203
$210
PLZ USE ALERTS AND OR STOP LOSSES
Fib Levels On AEHR Going WAY BackHad to take the AEHR chart all the way back out to 2017 to find some levels to plot. Took the fib retracement and look what we found: high traffic area around the 236 level. Tested it for the first time since 2017 and failed to break & hold. After pulling back, AEHR came within testing distance of the 382 level. After such a huge extension it will be interesting to see if it ends up consolidating above this level or if it tests (or breaks below) it.
"If we consider that the market for computer chips is extremely in demand right now, we see just why AEHR is getting so much attention. While it is not a producer of these chips, it does work as an ancillary company in the industry. In the past six months, shares of AEHR stock have rocketed higher by around 31%. Over the past twelve months, that number shoots up to over 45%... Only recently, Aehr Test Systems won a $2.9 million follow-on order for its FOX-XP Wafer Level Test and Burn-in system as well as multiple WaferPak Contactors from its lead silicon carbide customers. While this alone is not a be-all-end-all deal, it is a big step for the commercialization of its products. Additionally, large orders tend to help with the notoriety of a product and can lead to more orders in the future... ...While many gains with penny stocks occur without news, AEHR made an exciting announcement in the early morning on Monday. The company stated that it received a $10.8 million order for its silicon carbide test and a burn-in customer regarding its FOX-XP systems its WaferPak product... "
Quote Sources:
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AMD Buy?Its been a rough go for even the most bullish setups on equities lately due to the rocky nature of the macro with recent news of further inflation fears. Nonetheless we continue to hunt for the setups if not for the gains, then most definitely for the learning lessons that the markets can teach us.
For this asset, we keep things simple by keying in on an uptrend that has been supporting AMD since May.
It is expected that eventually this trend will break, but for now as long the price remains in the trend, buy opportunities exist at the green upward sloping trendline.
Once the green sloping line is broken, this will be our time to begin preparing for an exit.
The yellow line will be the first level of support should the trend be broken, but ultimately the bears will want to break the red line at $87.86 to confirm.
For the bullish case, continue to expect bounces at the green trendline of support until a full body candle closes outside of it on the daily and weekly time frames. A wise profit taking area will be around $93.50. If that level is broken and held as support, a retest of all time highs could be instore for AMD.
SMIC's R&D VP Resigns, Giving Up CNY 9.3 Mn in SharesOn July 4, Chinese chipmaking giant SMIC announced that the company's vice president of R&D and its core technician, Dr. Jingang Wu, has recently applied for resignation due to personal reasons. He will no longer hold any position in the company.
According to the recent statement of China's largest foundry SMIC (688981:SH, 00981:HK), the company's R&D work remains the same, and Dr. Wu's resignation has not imposed any significant adverse impact on the company's overall R&D strength.
Dr. Wu joined SMIC in 2001. Since then, he has successively served as assistant director, director and senior director. From 2014, he has been the vice president of R&D. During his tenure, Dr. Wu has mainly been in charge of the company's fin field-effect transistor (FinFET) advanced technology R&D and management, which is a critical enabler for furthering SMIC's 0.35-micron process technology to the nano-FinFET level.
Regarding confidentiality and competition restrictions, SMIC stated that Dr. Wu was required not to disclose any of the company's secrets or proprietary information and shall not work for any competitors within 12 months after his resignation.
Also, the 160,000 restricted stocks Dr. Wu has been granted for equity incentives in May, equivalent to the market value of CNY 9.3 million based on the current stock price, would become invalid after his resignation.
Time to Finally Sell NVDA?After a beautiful runup past all time highs weeks ago, NVDA has found itself in a similar position as the Nasdaq by hitting and getting rejected at the first fibonacci extension level.
I closed my long in this last week as I saw this level approaching and now it appears that a legit pullback may be coming into reality.
So I am bearish.. or am I?
Truth be told Nvidia is one of my favorite stocks, so I am aggressively watching for lower levels of re-entry and have been anticipating doing so for weeks now even as it ran up in price. I intend to load up and so I will be watching this closely over the coming days and weeks.
The best case scenario short term for Nvidia is that bulls can bullishly engulf and break above the key fib level and hold it as support on the weekly.
Until then, shorts or put options seem the most attractive bet in the immediate short term.
AMD potential 87-88 in 1-2 weeks. BULL FLAGWith the announcement of new chips, AMD is looking healthy for a comeback on an 87-88 level. Right now I see a BULL FLAG on the daily chart.
Break above 82 could lead to 86. After that, I hope to see some short consolidation before jumping to the 87-88 level.
$MU vs $AMD*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks*
*My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences*
*Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management*
My team has been analyzing $MU for the past few months. After consolidating in the $74-84 range for the past few weeks we finally believe that $MU is ready to take its leap to go past $100.
$MU is a semiconductor company much like $AMD. With this being said investors should expect these two to uptrend similarly short-term along with other semiconductor companies.
For long-term investors $AMD is the chip tyrant that will most likely dominate its competition, but that doesn't mean that we're not going to show $MU some love in the meantime.
We entered $MU this morning at $79.36 and plan to take profit 1-2 months from now at $104.
Entry: $79.36
Take profit: $104
Stop loss: $75
If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
$TSM descending triangle - what do you think? Up or down?Beautiful channel formation here but the time has come where descending triangle is forming, these are usually bearish.
TSM is having problems with production due to water shortage, $MU ceo yesterday talked about how NAND demand is not necessarily as high as the market thinks. Different industry, but is this company really worth 3x pre-covid?
I lean towards bullish as the 200ma approaches but the technicals on paper say otherwise.
QCOM - $165 PRICE TARGET QCOM - Current Price $130.48 Price Target $165
Qualcomm is set to benefit greatly not just from the chip shortage but the unexpected drop in supply of chips used for cellphones and handsets.Qualcomm’s Snapdragon 888, its new high-end chip with a 5G modem for Android phones. The newer chip which came out in Dec 2020 supports many types of 5G networks, the chip improved graphics rendering and improved artificial intelligence capabilities for things like facial and image recognition. Their 5G chip couldn’t come at a better time as tensions between the rest of the world and china continue, companies outside of China have started to avoid buying from Huawei. Back in 2019 Trump banned Huawei products in the US, and in July of 2020 the UK banned Huawei and their 5G chips and even said the companies existing equipment in the country will be removed by 2027. This is the perfect time to buy a trusted US chip maker that has a unique ability to steal significant market share in the 5G chip market. Great Value @ under 20x PE, 1.9% dividend!
Intel just popped through a resistance lineThere's some chatter in both the US and Europe about subsidizing chip manufacturing to help deal with the semiconductor shortage. That has sent chip stocks surging today, including Intel. I like Intel a lot, because it's quite reasonably valued for a chip company and has lots of plans for expanding its manufacturing capacity, which means it's poised to be a big beneficiary from any subsidies. Here are some vital statistics:
forward p/e: 12
forward p/s: 3
p/fcf: 12
forward div yield: 2.6%
patents per year per B$ market cap: 14
upside to median 4-year valuation: 8%
upside to average analyst price target: 20%
average S&P Global fundamentals rating: 70/100
average analyst score: 8/10
esg score: above average
put-call ratio: 0.9
Honestly, I think this is a long-term buy-and-hold. I had hoped for a dip to $52.20, but it looks like we may not get that low. Look for a close above resistance as confirmation of a breakout here. If we pull back and close below the resistance line, that's a signal that we may continue down to $52.20 after all.
flag formation in AMDBullish flag formed in AMD
As Intel rumors were confirmed, AMD took a beating. But these rumors are non-threatening, at least in the short-term. Intel has yet to finish their 7nm chip whereas AMD is already working on their 5nm chip. AMD is way ahead of the game, more involved with gaming than intel because of their additional console exposure. Intel's new Fab's won't be fully operational/have an effect on financials until 2023 or 2024.
In the meantime, AMD is crushing it. AMD may bounce here while the reality of the timeline sets in and causes INTC to sell-off after an incredible YTD run based on whispers of their plans.
AMD might bounce off the flag line or the resistance line (doubtful it breaks resistance) and mimic its recent impulse. "History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes". If it breaks the flag trendline the next support is at the $48 level; that scenario is highly unlikely.
Semiconductors ~ ascending triangle Technical Analysis
We have formed an ascending triangle (purple lines). If we make a measured move from the breakout, it takes us up to $275 target approximately.
21ema has been working very well as a trend following system.
OBV has been supportive of the trend.
Fundamental Analysis / News
1. Ongoing reports talking about demand for semiconductors outpacing supply, particularly from the auto makers.
2. A Reuters report that indicates CEOs of leading U.S. companies are urging the Biden administration to provide incentives to build more factories in the U.S. in order to win back market share and help mitigate risks to national security.