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TERADYNE (TER) a AI / Chip Sector Stock SHORTTER shown here on a 30 minute chart has asended in a diverging channel to the resistance of January pivot high shown in the line and zone drawn onto the chart. My idea is to short it from here targeting first about 106 which is the line drawn from a pivot before the paradoxical fall with a decent earnings report. The lower target is the support trendline of the channel or about 103.5. This is about a 6% potential trade and more with margin or put options. I expect the trade to last two days as falling down is usually quick than rising.
NASDAQ:TERShort
by AwesomeAvani
MU breaks through ATHs Bullrun does not relent LONGMU on the monthly chart 4 weeks ago crossed above the previous ATHs of 2021-2022 and has risen without retesting. Adding $9 to the all time highs for 10% inflation since then would adjust them to $104 and price is now in that range and above. Price is in the uppermost anchored VWAP bands and thus prone to reversal. However, MU is not as overextended as NVDA. Its upside is likely there as it competes in the space. Growth will accelerate once the new chip plant in upstate NY comes online after the construction is completed. NVDA is reportedly looking at Vietnam. I already have a large sized position in MU. I will add to it now even if it may be overbought. There is good cause for the overbuying. I want to support the domestic economy and understand national security interests in chip manufacturing here in the USA consistent with the recent federal law and stimulus associated with it.
NASDAQ:MULong
by AwesomeAvani
10
Semiconductor Bull Run: more steam ahead, but take cautionSome industries are notoriously cyclical. Semiconductor is a prime example. It swings to the extreme on both bullish and bearish sides. While the industry is in a bull run, investors can still participate in its rise but with caution. The PHLX Semiconductor Index (“SOX”) is a modified market-cap weighted index. It is composed of semiconductor firms involved in the design, production, and distribution. This paper dives into the factor’s driving SOX performance. It expounds on the cyclical nature of the industry, and its outlook fuelled by AI frenzy. Finally, this note posits a hypothetical spread trade to gain from index outperformance relative to the broader market. The spread has been found to be more resilient that an outright position in SOX ETF or futures. UBIQUITOUS AI AI here. AI there. AI everywhere. AI by far is the single most driver of SOX outperformance. VANTAGE:NVIDIA , the AI darling commands ~10% of the SOX. Other AI majors include Broadcom (9.3% weight) and chip equipment maker ASML (4.5% weight). The strongest profit harvester of AI boost is Nvidia. Expectedly, it has strongly outperformed SOX. AI-driven demand is evident in its financials. In 2023, its revenues rose by 125% YoY while Net income spiked by a jaw-dropping 580%. Consistent earnings beat-and-raise has propelled its stock prices to more than 500% gain since the start of 2023. Outsized impact of Nvidia’s earnings is from AI data centre sales. AI NOW, AND MORE IN THE FUTURE. Nvidia is clearly benefiting in the near-term. Other majors are ramping up their AI offerings. Notable among them are NASDAQ:AMD (9.8% weight in SOX), VANTAGE:INTEL (6.75%), and $Qualcomm (7.5%). These firms are yet to witness a major AI driven boost. 2023 data centre revenue for these firms remained underwhelming relative to AI winners such as Nvidia and Broadcom. Broadcom’s AI driven demand for its networking solutions led to revenue of USD 2.3 billion in Q1 2024 which represents a four-fold increase YoY, reported MarketWatch. For 2024, they forecast AI-driven sales to reach USD 10 billion. Data Source: TradingView Meanwhile, Intel, AMD, and Qualcomm are in the process of launching their own AI offerings. Qualcomm’s updated Snapdragon X Elite chips runs on ARM architecture. These offer enhanced AI capabilities, energy efficiency & performance compared to current platforms from Intel and AMD. AMD updated its guidance for AI graphics offerings to USD 3.5 billion this year (v/s two billion previously). Although, below expectations, the raised outlook signals that sales ramp up is yet to materialize. Intel is planning to launch AI PCs. Uniquely, in such PCs, AI inference will be localized on the user’s machines rather than on the cloud. Like Qualcomm, Intel’s AI PCs may revive its faltering PC sales. NEXT TO AI, REBOUND IN MOBILE PHONE SALES IS HELPING THE INDUSTRY Beyond AI driven demand, rebound in smartphone sales highlighted by Counterpoint Research has helped change the fortunes of this industry. Final quarter of last year marked the first quarter of annual growth after 7 straight quarters of declining sales volume as per their report . Smartphone sales rebound benefits not just mobile chip makers like Qualcomm but also manufacturing service providers like TSMC. SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY IS NOTORIOUSLY CYCLICAL. FORTUNATELY, BULL CYCLE FOR NOW. Semiconductor industry is prone to cyclicality. It is impacted by idiosyncratic consumption patterns. As a result, industry runs into large inventory buildups resulting in gluts for outdated products and shortages for new ones. Due to the rapid innovation rate, production sizing is hard. Even harder is for manufacturing output to adjust to shifting demand dynamics. Cyclicality is on over-drive these few years. Pandemic disrupted chip production while demand remained robust. Subsequent shortage impacted not just semiconductor firms but also various other industries reliant on chips. Manufacturers ramped up production to meet high demand. Soaring inflation drove central banks to raise interest rates. This caused consumer spending, especially on discretionary electronic items to nose-dive. This dynamic rapidly drove chip inventories from a severe shortage to demand crushing glut. What followed was painful mark-downs and profit crushing unit sale declines. Cyclicality is ingrained in this industry due to its consumption, innovation, and growth cycles. As an example, consider VANTAGE:INTEL ’s revenue and profit. VANTAGE:INTEL derives majority of its revenue (54% in 2023) from its Client Computing division comprising of consumer-focused processors. The impact of seasonality is also palpable in the net income of memory manufacturer $Micron. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP Robust financial performance is evident for some stocks within SOX. Other names within SOX are yet to reap the harvest of top-line and bottom-line growth from AI. Notwithstanding, SOX continues to rise. It is up +100% relative to the start of 2023 when AI-driven hype came to the fore. Over exuberance and risks of a bubble are clear. A macro slowdown or industry-specific setback could drive a sharp reversal in SOX. Instead of an outright position in SOX ETF or Futures, spreads between SOX and other equity indices shows that SOX/S&P 500 spread makes for a compelling hypothetical trade setup. SOX/S&P 500 spread offers improved upside relative to SOX/Nasdaq-100 and SOX/XLK spread. It also offers resilient performance during sharp corrections (August to November 2023). The SOX/S&P 500 spread is 36% higher since the start of 2023 and close to its highest level seen during 1995 and 2000. For reference, the SOX index is up 80% from 2023 and soaring far above previous all-time-highs. This implies that much of the recent run-up in SOX has come alongside a broader rally in the S&P 500. SOX outperformance is likely to continue while SOX tailwinds remain intact. A hypothetical spread trade comprising of two lots of long CME E-Mini PHLX Semiconductor Sector Futures (“SOX Futures”) and short one lot of CME E-Mini S&P 500 Futures can offer a reward to risk ratio of 1.5x. Two contracts of SOX Futures are required to match the notional for one contract of E-Mini S&P 500 futures. • Entry: 0.927 • Target: 0.97275 • Stop Loss: 0.897 • Profit at Target: USD 11,783 (+4.9%) • Loss at Stop: - USD 7,893 (-3.3%) • Reward to Risk: 1.5x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME_MINI:SOX1!Long
by mintdotfinance
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) | Technically a Good Opportunity!Hi, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), have been waiting for that pullback and here it is. Advanced Micro Devices designs microprocessors for the computer and consumer electronics industries. The majority of its sales are in the personal computer and data center markets via CPUs and GPUs. Additionally, the firm supplies the chips found in prominent game consoles such as the Sony PlayStation and Microsoft Xbox. AMD acquired graphics processor and chipset maker ATI in 2006 in an effort to improve its positioning in the PC food chain. Technically the area around $100 is the key level for AMD. Again, this round number, this psychological number plays a big role on the stock charts. Technical analysis is not so hard just observe these nr's, and you should be okay ;) To the point, let's describe and count the criteria which make me think that this shown box can be a good spot to grab it: 1. The round number $100 is one of them in the list which can act as a good support level but around it has several quite good criteria which match with it... 2. The strong horizontal price zone. The strongest criterion and probably the strongest price range on the entire AMD chart. We have quite a few things which confirm it. Firstly, $90 to $105 has had multiple rejections in either direction since the end of 2020. It has worked as a support level, it has worked as a resistance level - 9 times this range has changed some direction on the chart. The second confirmation that it is a strong area is the breakouts. In July 2021 the price of AMD managed to break the first time above $100 and made a perfect retest after that which guides the price to ATH levels. The break was made with a strong and powerful candle. The power is needed to make this happen. This time we have two strong weekly candles smashing down the $100, so the power is there and currently we haven't seen a retest yet. We'll wait for it. So, the strong horizontal level is confirmed with strong breakouts and can act as a key support level to end the short-term correction. 3. Fibonacci retracement 38%. Fibo 38% retracement level is great when we have some sort of momentum involved in stocks. Currently, I can say and obviously, you can see, that there is momentum. Perfect match with other criteria and one extra confluence factor added to the optimal buying zone. 4. The trendline. There are two types of trendlines. One is drawn from bodies (dotted: from candle closes, from weekly closes) and the second one is drawn from wicks. Never try to draw from the wick to the body or vice versa. The trendline is the most subjective criterion considering technical analysis and the rules must have in place! Currently, the sweet spot should stay in the middle of these trendlines and it also matches this possible reversal box. 5. In general price action with new mid-term higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL). 2022 was full of new lows without a single higher high. 2023 is the opposite, since the beginning of 2023 we have seen a strong uptrend with clean and strong higher highs and higher lows. It will give us that needed confirmation that investors are interested in and we have to figure out from where we can jump in... - Considering technical analysis then the optimal buying zone should stay between $90 to $105. Good luck, Vaido
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by VaidoVeek
2
AMD: SUPPLY & DEMAND / MARKET MOVER / FORTY-FIVE MADESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided a MACRO to SEMI-MICRO analysis of AMD's price action. With a large amount of history backing AMD's price action and overall impact on economic factor I would personally consider AMD to be a MARKET MOVER. POINTS: 1. MACRO Deviation: 13.75, SEMI-MICRO Deviation: 6.8 2. Current Uptrend Channel 3. WATCH 45 MA SINCE THE START OF BEAR MARKET THIS IS THE SECOND TIME THE 45 MA RISES ABOVE THE 200 MA. 4. WIDER UPTREND CHANNEL has developed. IMPORTANT: IF PRICE ACTION FALLS BELOW 82.50 FURTHER DOWNWARD MOMENTUM CAN THEN BE ON THE WAY. SCENARIO BEARISH: Current RSI & MACD levels falls in tandem with overbought territory being shown where current price action stands in NEW CHANNEL. Watch for loss of 82.50 if this is the case it is crucial 68.75 does not break because this can signify an opening for a new downtrend channel. SCENARIO BULLISH: IF 82.50 is lost watch for strong bounce on 75.63 to PRESERVE BULLISH MOMENTUM OF MA's. FULL CHART LINK: www.tradingview.com NASDAQ:AMD
NASDAQ:AMD
by DGSTBROKERACC
SHORT Intel - Weak Performance - Target 30 near termBroke Below Moving averages - Intc followed the FIB lines down RETRACED to support and got Rejected STRONG BEARISH divergence on the Oscillators ANALYSTS just LOVE Intel.....Whoo Hoo Tech is going to retreat -- AMD and INTC will be First to go down Intel Corp. has been missing from a rebound in technology stocks that’s lifted almost every other member of the Nasdaq 100 since the index bottomed in June. Aug-02-22 Downgrade DZ Bank Hold → Sell $30 Jul-29-22 Downgrade Susquehanna Neutral → Negative $40 → $33 Jul-29-22 Downgrade Robert W. Baird Outperform → Neutral $60 → $40 Jul-13-22 Reiterated Susquehanna Neutral $50 → $42
NASDAQ:INTCShort
by CapeAfrican
Bitcoin Down.. NVDA DownThere has been such demand destruction of bitcoin over the past several months it's clear to see how it effects equities like Nvidia. To explain. High bitcoin prices drive demand for miners. more miners results in higher sales for NVDA. The reverse is also true. Lower bitcoin prices decreases demand for miners, thus lowering sales for NVDA. My idea for NVDA earnings is short. A Head & Shoulders pattern with a clear neckline opens up a good opportunity for a short position over NVDA earnings. NVDA is an international company. Rising USD means lower margins. Overall market is starting to signal a rollover from the recent short squeeze rally which also strengthens a put position on Tech.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by SPYvsGME
$TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing WYCKOFF$TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. completed a clear as day WYCKOFF distribution TOP. Currently it is sitting on major support. Losing this $76 area would be bearish to $60 because there isn't much support below $76 to hold it up. $TSM is GAP city (Gaps are marked in Red), big gap below Support and many gaps above. So far, this stock has not shown any signs of reversal, however $TSM is a giant in chip manufacturing. TSM makes $aapl chips and with ongoing shortages they are well positioned for advantage as these tech giants add autonomous driving to their business plans. Financially they are well positioned for growth in the years to come.
NYSE:TSM
by ChaldeaCode
$MU vs $AMD part 2*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management* My team has been covering $MU for the past few months. After consolidating in the $65-$75 range for the past couple of months we finally believe that $MU is ready to take its leap to go past $100. $MU is a semiconductor company much like $AMD. With this being said investors should expect these two to uptrend similarly short-term along with other semiconductor companies this winter due to a chip production increase. For long-term investors $AMD is the chip tyrant that will most likely dominate its competition, but that does not mean we can't still make money off $MU. My team entered $MU at $72.92 per share at market-close on Friday. Our first take profit is set at $92 per share. OUR ENTRY: $72.92 FIRST TAKE PROFIT: $92 2ND TAKE PROFIT: $103 If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
NASDAQ:MULong
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney
#TSM mid term AnalysisAs we all know TSM has amazing fundamentals, incredible advantages in their business model and benefitial political terms inside their country, right now their competitors are not close enough to compete with them at full scale. So we are not going to argue about value for this company. Not all day we have infront of us a company that represents value for half of the world chips manufacturer market. since the July spike the price of #TSM has been trading at a side chanel from 108 usd to 125 usd, in case of a breaking of the 125 resistance at the edge of the accumulation channel, we can expect the price to travel smoothly to a) level target and so on, but in case of breaking the 108 support level we may see bears will take control to the oranges mark supports. As expected due the economic enviroment right now, lets expect a lot of volatility but thats ok, dont forget you are sitting on a value stock, the stop loss is stretched due volatility.
NYSE:TSM
by dondanicorleoni
AEHR Test Systems Price PredictionBen Rabizadeh, founder of storytrading.com, said Aehr Test Systems is his largest position. Rabizadeh is targeting a short-term move to the mid-teens if the stock is able to break through $8 per share with high volume, which just did. Aehr Test Systems could reach $50 by the end of 2021, Rabizadeh said. The stock could trade as high as $100 per share in the next two to three years, he added. (benzinga.com) The volume today was 31Mil from an Average of 4,3Mil
NASDAQ:AEHRLong
by TopgOptions
Fib Levels On AEHR Going WAY BackHad to take the AEHR chart all the way back out to 2017 to find some levels to plot. Took the fib retracement and look what we found: high traffic area around the 236 level. Tested it for the first time since 2017 and failed to break & hold. After pulling back, AEHR came within testing distance of the 382 level. After such a huge extension it will be interesting to see if it ends up consolidating above this level or if it tests (or breaks below) it. "If we consider that the market for computer chips is extremely in demand right now, we see just why AEHR is getting so much attention. While it is not a producer of these chips, it does work as an ancillary company in the industry. In the past six months, shares of AEHR stock have rocketed higher by around 31%. Over the past twelve months, that number shoots up to over 45%... Only recently, Aehr Test Systems won a $2.9 million follow-on order for its FOX-XP Wafer Level Test and Burn-in system as well as multiple WaferPak Contactors from its lead silicon carbide customers. While this alone is not a be-all-end-all deal, it is a big step for the commercialization of its products. Additionally, large orders tend to help with the notoriety of a product and can lead to more orders in the future... ...While many gains with penny stocks occur without news, AEHR made an exciting announcement in the early morning on Monday. The company stated that it received a $10.8 million order for its silicon carbide test and a burn-in customer regarding its FOX-XP systems its WaferPak product... " Quote Sources: 7/12: 5 Top Penny Stocks on Robinhood That You Should Check Out in July 7/19: 3 Top Penny Stocks For Your Monday Morning Watchlist
NASDAQ:AEHR
by PennyStocks101