CHWY Acting Well at Key Moving AveragesCHWY continues to find support at the 10 and 20-day EMAs. The breakout on 01/13 failed to get going and likely shook out a lot of longs. Today looks like it may be trying to extend out from this consolidation. Really easy spot to put on a position and manage risk with the stop around $98. It's possible that this one moves slowly at first as it grinds through supply. Hoping we get a handle near the highs to add to my current position. Long
CHWY
CHWY one last push? CHWY holding that support line nicely and bounced off 50 day EMA. Watching for a breakout of the downtrend for a clear reversal to retest ATH. Break of the support line this could be a nice short down to 94 under that I can see an overall move down to 87.
High Risk High Reward play
Playing options have a tight stop loss on this as its very overextended stock
Key Levels:
Support: 101.40, 98.60, 97, 94
Resistance: 104.20, 106.85, 110, 112
CHWY Ready for Breakout?Ticker $CHWY is forming a bull flag and is looking like it’s ready to breakout. Could be a huge breakout and also might see attempts to reach ATHs again. Riding the 20 and 50 SMA well with volume starting to pick up nice. RSI looks great however MACD could see a slightly lower number before it makes a bullish crossover.
CHWY new ATH? PT 110CHWY broke out and held above its bull pennant, i would look for entry near 103.05 or wait for break of 105.30 to retest ATH. If it can hold above 106.50 tomorrow we could see 110 by eow. I would be careful with Chwy as it is very extend and overbought on the higher time frames, correction is coming soon but I have high hopes for this to run during this Santa rally.
Woah... Hello CHWY! What an absolute bullish baller!
CHWY is overall up 160% in 2020, as it turned out to be a hot growth stock in 2020 thanks to the coronavirus pandemic that accelerated the shift toward online shopping for pet products. The company's revenue jumped 45% over the prior-year period to $1.78 billion, comfortably ahead of the $1.72 billion Wall Street estimate. Its gross margin increased 180 basis points year over year to 25.5%, helping the company reduce its adjusted net loss to $7.7 million during the quarter from $39.6 million a year ago.
Investors are eager to jump in the CHWY train, especially with the help of the fantastic earnings report they recently gave. Price jumped exponentially to an all-time high as a result.
I expect some natural retracement to occur. But just by looking at the overall chart on the 1D, the 50 MA has proven to be an excellent measurement of support. The plan is simple: patiently wait for retracement, and jump in as soon as it hits that 50 MA.
Happy trading!
Stocks to Watch 11/29/2020The Bull Market is strong, but many stocks are extended and sentiment seems to be extremely bullish. I am cautious with new buys until the sentiment cools off a little. This video is my watchlist. Most of these names are at or near all time highs or multi year highs. There are 28 total stocks on this list. Many of these have IPO'd in the last few years and still have a growth story ahead of them. There are also some "COVID" stocks which may be setting up again. . Know your time frame and risk tolerance, grab a pencil and paper and jot down the names that look interesting to you and then make the trade your own. Good Luck!
CHEWY 1D ASCENDING TRIANGLEAscending Triangle are repeatable trading chart patterns.
Ascending chart patterns will have a directional bias depending on the previous incoming trend.
Each chart pattern will have defining trendlines of the support/resistance levels creating the pattern.
What ever time frame you are trading this chart pattern, wait for a candle close outside of the trendline in the direction of the breakout candle. (Our time frame preference is the Daily chart).
Add volume indicator - Volume is the amount of $ that went into a particular candle or in Forex the # of trades that took place.
Add ATR indicator - Volatility is the amount of price movement that occurred. Use the ATR to measure the price movement.
When you see descending Volume bars and descending ATR line (which indicates volatility) this shows
a dis-interest in traders to invest in this pair creating consolidation which creates the chart pattern.
Trade Management after there is a breakout candle close.
1 - Position size (compare volume bar to volume ma line).
a - Breakout candle must be 100% of volume average for a full position size.
b - If 75% of volume average then ½ position size. (To find 75% of Volume
look at the charts volume settings – divide smaller # into larger # = 75%+)
If not 75% then stand aside from the trade.
2 – If candle breaks out of a trendline, 15m before the close of the day prepare your buy/sell order.
Enter two trades. 1st trade will have a SL & TP. It will close automatically when the 1st TP is hit. 2nd
trade only has a SL and will be allowed to run. When 1st TP is hit move the SL to breakeven. Look
at ATR and prepare SL at 1.5 of ATR. Prepare 1st trade TP at 1 of ATR.
3 - SL for both trades will be 1.5 x ATR.
4 - 1st trade TP will be 1 x ATR.
5 - No TP on 2nd trade – letting profit run and adjusting SL to follow price.
6 - When 1st TP hit – move 2nd trade SL to breakeven.
7 - Adjust the 2nd trade SL to follow price.
*8 – After Breakout candle – if price closes back into chart pattern close trade don't wait for SL to be hit.
*9 - When breakout candle is more than 1 ATR from breakout candle open.
a - Enter 1st trade at candle close with ½ position size.
b - Enter 2nd trade with a pending limit order that is 1 ATR of breakout candle open.
c – Price should pullback to that pending limit order for 2nd trade.
d – If Price returns back into chart pattern close trade before SL is hit.
CHWY Defensive Bullish inclined - 18 Sep ExpiryCHWY is an online retailer of pet food. Since the start of the year is has generally been on a bullish uptrend. I picked CHWY as it's price movement seems pretty predictable and not very volatile.
Price has recently hit a nice high 52 week high and now seems to be in a range and testing that key 52 week high price point. I feel that there is a higher probability of it moving downwards, especially with it's RSI leaning towards the higher band of 60.
As my defensive trade is focused on picking off premium. As such I have made it bullish inclined with a Max gain at strike 70 and breakeven at 71.23. So the scenario I aim for is a bearish price that so that my contracts can just expiry worthless.
I'm worried as Tradingview has pegged earnings at 21 Sep, but other sources has it at 8 Sep/15 Sep. I only realised this after the trade was entered and TOS showed a different earnings date.
Defensive Profit $1333
Bought 18 Sep @ Strike 60 Calls +1, $2.7
Sold 18 Sep @ Strick 70 Calls -20, $0.81
BP block: 12k
THE WEEK AHEAD: PLAY, ACB, PTON, CHWY, WORK, AEO, GDXJ, QQQ, EWZEARNINGS:
Some decent earnings on tap in terms of options liquidity and implied volatility metrics this coming week. Here they are, ranked by how much the at-the-money short straddle is paying as a function of stock price:
PLAY (33/136/35.5%):* Thursday after market close.
ACB (30/205/32.5%): Wednesday (time not specified).
PTON (66/125/32.4%): Thursday after market close.
CHWY (19/112/25.7%): Thursday after market close.
WORK (51/104/25.1%): Tuesday after market close.
AEO (36/108/22.6%): Wednesday before market open.
ORCL (42/47/10.8): Wednesday (time not specified).
Pictured here is an expected move short put in PLAY with a break even at 13.70, 9.5% ROC as a function of notional risk, 88.9% ROC annualized; 4.8% ROC at 50% max/44.5% annualized at 50% max. Look to take profit at 50% max or cover if assigned. Basically, another COVID-19 recovery play (along with airlines, cruise lines, and restaurant chains).
With ACB and AEO being under $20/share, my basic approach would be either short straddle or iron fly, with the latter set up to generate risk one to make one metrics.
Examples:
ACB October 16th 8/9 "skinny short strangle," 2.70 at the mid price.
ACB October 16th 3/8/9/14 "skinny" iron fly, 2.42 credit, 2.58 max loss.
AEO October 16th 13 short straddle, 2.90 at the mid price.
AEO October 16th 8/13/13/18 iron fly, 2.48 credit, 2.52, max loss.
With the remainder, I would generally just sell the 20-25 deltas:
Examples:
PTON October 16th 65/135 short strangle, 8.43 credit at the mid price.
PTON October 16th 65/105/110 Jade Lizard, 6.01 at the mid price (no upside risk, downside break even at 58.99).**
PTON October 16th 2 x 55/2 x 60/125/135 "double double" iron condor, 3.43 at the mid.***
CHWY October 16th 49/90 short strangle, 5.08 at the mid.
CHWY October 16th 45/50/85/90 iron condor, markets showing wide in the off hours, but would look to get at least one-third the width of the wings in credit.
WORK October 16th 24/41 short strangle, 2.52 at the mid.
WORK October 16th 21/24/41/44 iron condor, 1.00 at the mid (but also showing wide in the off hours).
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS RANKED BY PERCENTAGE OF STOCK PRICE THE OCTOBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING:
TQQQ (49/117/29.0%)
GDXJ (22/59/14.7%)
XOP (16/56/14.3%)
SLV (44/55/14.0%)
GDX (23/47/12.4%)
EWZ (21/48/12.4%)
XLE (27/43/11.6%)
USO (7/44/11.4%)
SMH (26/41/10.3%)
I don't usually play TQQQ because it's leveraged, but thought I'd keep an eye on it if it does a mid-March lather, rinse, repeat.
BROAD MARKET:
QQQ (44/38/10.2%)
IWM (34/37/8.5%)
SPY (26/30/6.3%)
EFA (23/24/6.3%)
IRA DIVIDEND PAYERS:
EWZ (21/48/12.4%)
EWA (27/30/7.7%)
IYR (24/29/6.9%)
SPY (26/30/6.3%)
GLD (31/23/5.3%)
TLT (17/19/4.3%)
HYG (23/16/3.3%)
EMB (13/13/2.7%)
* -- The first number is the implied volatility rank; the second, 30-day implied volatility; and the third, the percentage the next monthly at-the-money short straddle is paying in credit as a function of stock price.
** -- Currently, PTON is showing some horrible skew on the call side, which can be accommodated via ratio, Jade Lizard, or a "double double" iron condor.
*** -- Double the number of contracts on the put side with the short put at half the delta of the short call and the short call vertical aspect at double the width of the put side. Hence the term "double double."