Big Citibank Opportunity Citibank Opportunity - NYSE:C
Company Market Cap: $82.2 billion
Share Price Today: $42.68
Dividend: 0.53c per quarter (Annual Dividend of c.$2.06)
Annual Dividend Yield: 4.82%
Next Earnings Report: Friday 13th October 2023
Citibank (Citigroup) is the 20th largest bank in the world & a member of Global Systemically Important Financial Institutions (G-SIFIs) meaning it has stricter prudential regulation such as higher capital requirements and extra surcharges and more stringent stress tests. under the scheme deposits can be 100% guaranteed in the event of a crisis, which is not the case for smaller banks that are not considered systemically important. This additional security can add weight to a longer term hold for Citibank combined with a good 4.82% dividend yield.
Citibank has recently been in the headlines with negative news for completing a management re-org with substantial lay-offs. Whilst the news is interpreted as negative, the chart appears to reaching a point of exhaustion after 31 months of downward price pressure and a roughly 50% reduction in price from $81 down to $42. We may be forming a 3rd higher price cluster or price launch pad here at $42.
Earnings release is in a 4 and half weeks on 13thOctober and after 13 quarters of positive earnings the trend is green. Its worth noting that upon earnings release, the price can capitulate or ascend aggressively (historically this has been the way), this is why it is important to be placing bids or positions well in advance of the release (now) and on the day of the release we should be nimble and on our toes to capitalize or reduce risk with stop losses. Obviously for long term position players this is not all that important, we have our long term target and stop loss on the chart.
There is a long term trade opportunity with a stop loss at BASE 2 at $34.37. As you can see the trade has a Risk/Reward of 4:1. People who want to play it even safer could wait for a bounce off BASE 2 but for me a retracement this low could mean lower price momentum and a break of the RSI resistance. This is why I am inclined to take a position now off this base well in advance of the earnings release.
This is not my typical style of trade however I could not pass up the chart given the mid-term 31 month 50% reduction and exhaustion in price combined with the higher bases on the longer term trajectory, and to be honest the negative news really got me the contrarian in me rustled. If you look hard enough you can see a potential long term ascending triangle forming out into the 5 year time horizon. As a cherry to the trade, the dividend yield is considerably high at 4.82% for a systemically important institution – to big to fail.
In Summary
- Citigroup is one of the top 20 banks in the world
and is considered systemically important.
- Citigroup share price has been declining 31 months
with an approx. 50% reduction in price.
- Three Price Bases establishing higher lows are
reinforced by a rising RSI support line.
- To fully take advantage of the earnings release on
13th October 2023 positions need to be placed now
as the stock is extremely volatile on the day of
release.
- If the RSI support line fails to hold this could be a
warning signal of a break down into STRONG
SUPPORT ZONE (Red).
- The dividend yield is considerably high at 4.82% for
a systemically important institution offering a little
incentive for a longer term hold.
Citibank
Citigroup Faces Tough Times: 20,000 Job Cuts, $1.8 Billion Loss
Citigroup, one of the largest banks in the United States, is navigating through challenging times as it grapples with a $1.8 billion loss in the fourth quarter of 2023—the worst in 14 years. The bank's CEO, Jane Fraser, announced a bold restructuring plan, including a significant workforce reduction of at least 20,000 jobs, about 10% of its workforce, as part of a broader effort to streamline operations and enhance returns.
The Financial Struggles:
Citigroup's fourth-quarter results reveal a $1.8 billion loss, attributed to $4 billion in one-off charges and expenses. These charges include $800 million tied to the restructuring, substantial hits from its exposure to Russia, and the devaluation of Argentina's peso. The bank's quarterly performance is the weakest since the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, underscoring the magnitude of the challenges it faces.
CEO's Response and Restructuring Plan:
Jane Fraser, Citigroup's Chief Executive, acknowledged the disappointing performance but emphasized the progress made in simplifying the organization and executing their strategic vision. The restructuring plan aims to cut costs and streamline operations, with a focus on reorienting the bank around its lines of business rather than geographical reach. Fraser plans to eliminate five layers of management, reducing them from 13 to 8, with business unit heads reporting directly to her. The cost of these changes is estimated to be as high as $1.8 billion but is expected to yield annual savings of up to $2.5 billion by 2026.
Job Cuts and Organizational Simplification:
Citigroup anticipates reducing its overall headcount to as low as 180,000 by 2025 or 2026, down from 240,000 at the beginning of the previous year. The bank had only cut 1,000 roles by the end of December, and the remaining reductions are expected to follow the completion of organizational simplification by the end of the first quarter of this year. Beyond the restructuring process, Citigroup plans to shed an additional 40,000 workers through exits from its consumer banking business in Mexico and other regions.
Financial Impact and Market Reaction:
Despite the challenging quarter, shares in Citigroup remained flat in early afternoon trading in New York. The bank acknowledges that the unexpected resilience of the U.S. economy has provided some relief, with credit card spending and corporate expenditures boosting revenues in the consumer banking and treasury services divisions, respectively. However, challenges in the corporate lending division, with a 26% drop in revenues, and a 25% plunge in revenue from sales and trading of bonds, commodities, and currencies, underscore the broader economic headwinds.
Conclusion:
Citigroup's announcement of significant job cuts, coupled with its worst quarterly performance in over a decade, paints a challenging picture for the banking giant. The bold restructuring plan led by CEO Jane Fraser signals a commitment to adapting to changing market dynamics and improving the bank's overall performance. As Citigroup navigates these turbulent waters, eyes will be on its execution of the restructuring plan and its ability to emerge stronger in the post-restructuring era. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether 2024 will indeed be the turning point predicted by the bank's leadership.
Citi Group (C) might break out its rangeCitigroup has been trading in this range for 14 years.
Could it continue to keep going sideways? Yes.
I will take a jab at this for a long term investment
Invalidation: Monthly Close below $43.11
$C Citigroup catch upLooking at long term charts, the bank crisis has opened an opportunity to invest in bank stocks. Lowest risk is to go with the too big to fail banks. Citigroup is one of them. If you compare it to the other big bank stocks since 2008 you'll see that C has lagged behind while others recovered to pre-crisis levels. I think C can catch up in next few years. It is my choice to invest of the big banks.
CITI GROUP MAYBE MAYBEThis bank holds more cash around the world but we know that banks has no more cash at their vaults because of Federal reserve banking system. Interest rates kill them.
So we might see CITI group might go below or pump atleast there is a buyer.
Follow for more.
This year is interesting on banks......
Citi Bank - Breakout Citi bank is traveling towards the resistance @ 52.
Once it touches 52, we can expect a short pull down to 49 or 48.
Once it crosses 52/53, it will fly.
Interpreting the Silicon Valley Bank Incident
After the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the Federal Reserve used monetary policy to fight the pandemic, and household savings deposits reached about $1 trillion, with broad money M2 growing by over 25%. Many people were bullish on the US stock market, believing that these huge amounts of idle cash would one day enter the market as stocks. Obviously, many people forgot the double-entry accounting principle - for every credit, there must be a corresponding debit.
For Silicon Valley Bank, with deposits of over $100 billion, all of its depositors are the largest and bluest venture capital companies and technology newcomers in Silicon Valley, including Peter Thiel's Founder's Fund. Since the Federal Reserve interest rate is zero, they bought the world's safest assets - short-term US bonds, and even earned some interest. However, the good times did not last. By the end of 2021, US inflation began to soar, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy began to lose control, causing short-term US bond yields to soar, leading to the biggest US bond market crash in over 200 years in 2022. Suddenly, the world's safest asset became the storm's eye, and the US bond holdings in Silicon Valley Bank's account began to bleed. Even if they haven't sold yet, accounting requires mark-to-market valuation. The Silicon Valley market price loss has exceeded its total equity.
Rating agencies wasted no time in preparing to downgrade Silicon Valley Bank's rating. However, deposit rates remain close to zero. Americans don't want to be harvested like this, so they began to withdraw their bank deposits and buy money market funds that now yield nearly 4%. If Silicon Valley Bank significantly raises its deposit interest rates, its interest margin income will be reduced, and it will have to pay additional liquidity. At this time, Silicon Valley found itself in a dilemma. Investment bank Goldman Sachs saw commission opportunities and began to suggest that Silicon Valley sell part of its US bond portfolio and sell $2.25 billion of its stocks to replenish capital. This idea was really bad: data disclosed during the roadshow showed that Silicon Valley's customers were withdrawing large sums of money, causing a significant loss of deposits. If it weren't for the roadshow disclosure, the market wouldn't know the details. Now, the market believes that Silicon Valley is about to go bankrupt, accelerating the run on the bank. Since Silicon Valley's customers are all big clients with deposits far exceeding $250,000, more than 95% of Silicon Valley Bank's deposits are not covered by the US deposit insurance limit of $250,000.
There must be many other regional banks using similar methods for cash management. Today, they are bound to face the same risks as short-term US bond yields soar. This also explains why the market unilaterally believes that the Federal Reserve will soon stop raising interest rates. Their actions determine their fate. Of course, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy must now consider the impact on the US banking industry. Chairman Powell has recently been saying that he needs to "consider the totality of data." Last night, the market hid in the short-term US bonds out of safe haven demand, causing yields to plummet.
Many people continue to be indifferent to the historic inversion of the US bond yield curve. In fact, the inversion of the yield curve is a distortion of risk, which is not sustainable. Its reversal will cause a cataclysmic event. Although long-term risks are stable, short-term risks are high. We need to survive the short term to see the long term. "But such long-term predictions are of no use for the present. In the long term, we are all dead. Economists have it too easy, because their work is useless. At the onset of a storm, economists can only tell us that the storm will pass, and that the ocean will be calm again." - Keynes
Now, the global market is concerned: Will Silicon Valley Bank be rescued? Many experts believe that if the US regulatory authorities do not intervene, Silicon Valley will become the second Lehman, which will bring down the US financial system. The market needs to see three measures for rescue: 1) Small depositors with less than $250,000 should receive full payment; 2) Depositors with deposit insurance limits over $250,000 should receive partial payment, and it should be ensured that in the future, depending on the sale of Silicon Valley Bank assets, these large depositors can receive most of their payment (such as 80%); 3) Let one of the four major US banks take over Silicon Valley Bank.
The problem now is that less than 3% of Silicon Valley Bank deposit balances are below $250,000. Others are large and blue, including Silicon Valley venture capital companies such as Sequoia Capital, Paradigm, a16z, and GGV Capital. Many Silicon Valley companies involve funds ranging from hundreds of millions to tens of billions. No wonder Silicon Valley was squeezed for more than $40 billion before being taken over. Under such pressure, almost no bank can survive.
Unfortunately, US law may not allow it. If the Federal Reserve intervenes, the Silicon Valley crisis must meet the definition of "systemic risk" and there must be "broad-based" risks, and it cannot only benefit a particular company. At the same time, the Federal Reserve cannot intervene in bankrupt companies that have already been taken over. The US Treasury cannot use unlegislated funds without congressional approval, and now there is no money left.
In the end, it seems that FDIC has to bear the burden alone. The process of selling Silicon Valley assets to pay large depositors has already begun. It is reported that hedge funds have offered to buy Silicon Valley Bank's deposits at 60%-80% of their value. In times of crisis, Silicon Valley assets can be realized for 60%-80% of their value, and after the panic in the US market subsides, the price should be even higher. After all, US Treasury bonds trade up to $650 billion every day.
Will the Federal Reserve open the floodgates again because of Silicon Valley Bank? In fact, Silicon Valley's bankruptcy is precisely due to the Fed's unbridled printing of money, which caused a sharp drop in US bond yields and a surge in savings deposits. If money is printed again using Silicon Valley as an excuse, the Fed's only remaining credibility will be gone.
When Lehman collapsed, its assets were worth $640 billion, and its associated derivative contract amounted to trillions of dollars. It was indeed a decisive moment. However, the assets of Silicon Valley Bank this weekend were only $220 billion, and it still held a large number of highly liquid US Treasury bonds.
Previously, the market believed that the US economy would not decline, but the Federal Reserve's decision to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes, and even stop them soon, made the combination of economic and policy expectations logically hard to convince. During this cycle of rate hikes, Federal Reserve officials maintained a dovish stance until the end of 2021, believing that inflation would be a "transitory, temporary phenomenon." They then changed their tune in 2022, saying that this round of inflation will be "higher and longer." In both recent history and ancient times, the Federal Reserve's forecasting record seems to be lacking.
Overnight, the two-year US Treasury yield skyrocketed by more than 5%, the first time since 2007. The degree of inversion of the US Treasury yield curve is the most severe since 1981. Many people mistakenly believe that the inverted US Treasury yield curve is terrifying. In fact, it is more terrifying when the yield curve returns to normal from inversion because this is the moment when the US economy officially enters into a recession.
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$C: Citi has a nice weekly trend$C has a very strong trend signal here, interesting setup forming here in the daily as well, looks like a pretty low risk long with decent upside.
Interesting that banks act strong now as well, from an economic standpoint...
Best of luck!
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Citigroup: Low Risk Puts TradeRight now the Puts for Citi expiring months out are very cheap and if we look slightly OTM we can see a put option expiring Mar 17th at the strike of $42.5 trading at under 40 cents. I could easily buy a bunch of these at a low risk and just see how it goes and that's what i will be doing. On the other end of things i will be hedging against my overall bearish stance by buying 5% of the amount of puts i buy in calls in the form of the Mar 17th strike of $50 calls selling for under $1.71 a piece.
Citi - still downtrend - no signal for longhi
citi is my favorite bank to play. it is funny bank, when bankers can play how they want the money without any control, and then lost their job. I don't know what kind of procedure they got but it does not work ...
I think that this bank is manipulated a lot, lot of people - big fishes have got stocks in their pockets, bought roughly very cheap below 11 usd... they who knew that usa will help the bank, they became a rich men ...
right now, we know that fed is going to kick up the rates very sharply, 2023 is still negative year for spx... dolar is still being played hard long, yen down, all other minor currencies also. Everybody are right now playing bonds and rising costs of debts...
Please look on the chart. I think that we are moving 32 USD, and then level down can be 27 even. I think that scenario right now is 32 usd... it is going down, no signal for going up...
I wish you good luck.
My idea drinking coffee..
best regards for tradingview for their positive look on my work...
C - Movement Along Major Trend LineC dropped very sharply but recovered and has been moving consistently along this major trend line that formed in the beginning of price action
Circles in green are very similar points and should be treated the same
Safe buy along the strong trend line
Banks to crash in larger financial crisis than 08/09I am expecting economical-sensitive investments like banks to crash to far lower levels than they reached in march 2020 due to even worse economic circumstances ( Contraction + Inflation entrenched)
Citibank Head & Shoulders Tilted body looks to be indicating a move further to the downside. We are going to possibly see a retracement back down to the $66 / $64 area.
NYSE:C
CITY UNION BANK OF INDIAi have shared everything on charts, i am suggesting you to make a long position around 142 for the targets of 180 with small sl of 135
thanks
Financial Sector needs a pull backXLF is over-inflated (financial sector)
BlueWave will give a red dot sell signal soon.
Stochastic RSi is overbought.
Citi LongTrade price: 72.2
Target price: 90
SL: 72
R/R: 1 to 5
Citi is 1 of the banks Stock Picks to benefit from 'Goldilocks Inflation' Cycle... -Source: Wayne Duggan 5/11/2021 Bezinga
The GFC 2008. RECOVERY, GREEN SHOOTS, OBAMA, QE pt 2Second part of the look back in time
Ford
Citibank
Bank Of America
Micron Tech
MT steel
SPY
CThe current trend is moderately bullish and C is experiencing selling pressure, which indicates risk of future bearish movement.
C is currently trading in the 60-70% percentile range relative to its historical Stock Score levels.
Trade Update #stocksThe Chart: Price has fully reversed from the bottom of the large range (rectangle) and has now broken out of the top end of the range. Despite todays rough down day I am comfortable with my position as long as price can hold above the 59 area.
The Narrative: Banks are taking a bit hit on earnings but the quarterly results we not as bad as the price drop may seem. Given the run most including Citigroup have had, taking some profits into the quarterly results was some what expected. The recent move in interest rates, reopenings, and overall global growth should all be tailwinds for the sector. Unless there is a double dip recession, I think the banks have more room to run especially if we hold the 59 area for Citi specifically.
EURGBP H1 - Long Trade SetupEURGBP H1 - Start of a potential reversal, double bottom on our big D1 support raised my eyebrows. Looking to break above 0.89400 and then retest 0.89100.
This would be a perfect start to a 2 stage reversal, but this is required before any further consideration. D1 support zone, failed lower low, break above key level and previous high, retest support. Bullish positioning....
ALGO Bullish Trend and "Future of Global Payments" Report updateShwatup doe! Hope you are healthy, wealthy and blessed!
Here we take a closer look at ALGOUSD on the 4 hour chart!
ALGO has been ranging between $.36 and .47 over the past few days; gaining strong support at $0.38 and at the current level of .3950
Volume and Money Flow have been increasing dramatically...
If .47 is broken, we could see a quick move to the $.53 area, but we need to hold $.43 as support. I am bullish short term and long term, but cautious at this point as Bitcoin is in uncharted territory and the correlation is obvious.
DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging):
Look at fib levels for entry points at support and buy any dips at these levels. As price moves up and resistance becomes support, act accordingly. Use stop loss and take profit at resistance zones, and watch for breakouts that come back to test previous resistance as new support for entry signal as you don’t want to miss the move up!
I think a great entry is anything between .36 and .40 and a good entry is anything at or below .43 for the current price action, with stop loss just below support at .36 as to not get stopped out and miss the next move up! But that’s just my opinion.
Possible short term bearish scenario:
If $.47 cannot be broken on the next go at it and if we cannot hold the $.43 as support, AND If btc corrects and money doesn’t flow into Alts but Instead into fiat (which doesn’t really make sense to me because the US dollar is increasing in supply as I have already received my stimulus check as many of you have), it is possible that btc will take the whole market for a correction.
And as for “The Future of Global Payments” report, here is the link to download the 64 page report from ALGOrand.com —-
info.algorand.com
This report from the DMI (Digital Monetary Institute) and OMFIF - (the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum) , contains contributions from Algorand, who’s name and logo appears next to the likes of contributors:
MasterCard,
Citibank,
PayPal,
GrabPay,
Swift,
and more.
Notable quotes written by Steve Kokinos, chief executive officer of algorand:
"THE economy functions on complex systems that present challenges and opportunities when it comes to payment services for consumers, businesses, governments and financial markets. Legacy financial systems do not have the efficiency, trust or accessibility needed to advance global payments. Blockchains solve this by bringing trust to otherwise untrusted systems. (...)
Implementing trust through legacy methods and available technology is simply not feasible. The path to generating trust is through programmable systems and programmable money, or real money that is represented digitally. (...)
Blockchain offers a completely different way to organise and manage payments systems. It provides real-time, cross-border payments worldwide –
and even new ways to store value.
A platform like Algorand, paired with fintech’s latest developments and simplified developer toolkits, has the potential to take the lead in the race for payments innovation."
Thanks for reading and thanks for your support!
As always do your own research, I am not a financial advisor and this is not financial advice
and
ONE Love ❤️
Citigroup : quick lookThere were times when #C were the largest US bank and their share price was 10 times higher.
More than 12 years have passed since then and #C market cap now is just half of Bank of America's #BAC one and 3 times less than of JP Morgan #JPM.
2020 pandemic wasn't a financial industry crisis. Quite the contrary Banks are benefiting from the huge injection of liquidity, increase of the number of retail investors and IPO-mania.
Their own analysts predict a bright future for the long time undervalued financial sector in the months to come.
Sourcing inspiration from the #C share price dynamics in 2016-2018 we could mark some support-resistance levels for #C up until end of 2023: 63,50 - 53,50 - 83 - 72 - 100 - 90 - 120
