Citigroup
BanksLike the airline stocks, big banks have all formed similar patterns leading into Monday. Funding seems to have shifted to the banks and airlines. Many banks will be reporting earnings this coming week, including JPM, WFC, Citi (not shown) on Tues. 7/14, USB and GS Wed. 7/15, and BAC, MS, and First National Bank (not shown) Thurs. 7/16.
$C Citigroup Pennant Breakdown - Bearish Options Activity$C Citigroup Pennant Breakdown - Bearish Options Activity
$8M bearish options bet on $55.00 strike Jan 2022 puts traded yesterday.
Expecting this to breakdown further leading into earnings mid-July.
See chart for possible near term targets.
Note: Not investment advice.
Potentially Green Day Turned Red - Here's WHY - 06/10/20 RECAPHi traders,
Murphy says the very next time we decide to do something, it won't work. That's what happened to me on Wednesday as I re-entered Citigroup after missing a re-entry on Tuesday in PTON. Aaand ended with 2 losses. The day was even more painful because in UNFI I spotted 2 good opportunities - both of which worked - but did not get filled. A nice profit ended up in a loss. But all I can do is to readjust and try better next time!
Trades:
1) CSCO - SHORT @47.39, -0.14%
2) C - SHORT @56.98, -1.02%
3) C - SHORT @56.99, -1%
*In my ID trades, I risk 1% of the account per trade and go for 2% (2:1 RRR ). Sometimes I adapt a little bit as you can see in the trades' description.*
Total PnL for the day: -2.16%
Total PnL for the week: -2.05%
Good trades,
Tom | FINEIGHT
OPENING: C JULY 17TH 35 SHORT PUT... for a 1.22/contract credit.
Notes: Taking a small directional shot here in relatively high implied for a financial (42/53) that's been #CoronaHammered. Would also be fine with taking on shares and then proceeding to cover with a cost basis of 33.78, since it has dividends (4.4% yield).
CITIGROUP (C) IN A CLASSIC FLAG FORMATION
after a strong bearish wave, we see a steady recovery on CITI.
the price is steadily going up within a rising parallel channel called a bearish flag pattern.
its called bearish because even if the sentiment is locally bullish, on a long run stock is falling and we keep our bearish bias.
we don't know how long the price will be within, the only trigger for us is the breakout.
daily candle close below is the perfect signal to look for a short trade, expecting a continuation to current structure low
with a potential rally to the downside!
keep watching citi and try to catch a perfect swing short!
good luck!
One GREAT Trade a Day Is All You Need - DT RECAP 04/27/20Hi traders,
Today I kind of repeated Friday - only one trade, but a great winner! If you take a look at the ticker, I could've got +4% out of it. Am I mad? NO!! I already got way more than I aimed for. Greed will not make you profitable.
My trade:
1) NYSE:C - LONG @45.02 , I was cautious about the 45.60 area of the previous swing high, but seeing Citigroup's strength and overall markets upwards direction led me to hold it even further. +2.82%
*In my ID trades, I risk 1% of the account per trade and go for 2% (2:1 RRR ). Sometimes I adapt a little bit as you can see in the trades' description.*
Total PnL for the day: +2.82%
Total PnL for the week: +2.82%
Good trades,
Tom | FINEIGHT
THE WEEK AHEAD: WFC, C, JPM, BAC EARNINGS; XLF, IWM, XLU; /CLEARNINGS:
And ... we're back into earnings season, which ordinarily kicks off with a bunch of financials. Generally, I don't play these for volatility contraction, since they don't get all that frisky generally, but this environment is a tad different from quarters past, with the 30-day in WFC (45/76), C (44/91), JPM (41/63), and BAC (40/70) all greater than 50% and with the sector exchange-traded fund up there as well (XLF (47/58)).
Rather than play one of the single names, I've pondered what could be done in the sector exchange-traded fund, XLF, instead. Pictured here is a long-dated XLF call diagonal with the back month at the 90 delta in June of next year, the 30 delta-ish front month in June of this one. Ordinarily, I don't go that far out in time with the back month, but June '21 happens to one of the expiries with the lowest implied, so it will be one in which the 90 delta has a lower extrinsic value baked into it compared to expiries of shorter duration. Costing 8.36 at the mid price, it has a break even of 23.36 versus 23.38 spot, a debit paid/spread width ratio of .76, and delta/theta metrics of 58.64/.77, so it's neutral to bullish assumption with plenty of time to reduce cost basis via short call roll. You'd be paying 8.36 for an 11-wide, so have a max profit potential equal to the width of the spread (11.00) and what you paid (8.36) or 2.64 ($264) -- about 31.6% return on capital, assuming max profit.
Naturally, it would have been more awesome were one to have gotten in at the 3/22 17.50 lows.
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS WITH 30-DAY IMPLIED GREATER THAN 50%:
XLU (52/52)
XLE (47/75)
SMH (43/57)
GDXJ (41/81)
EWZ (40/74)
EWW (39/58)
SLV (34/50)
XOP (33/100)
USO (32/128)
GDX (28/62)
BROAD MARKET:
IWM (53/54)
TQQQ (47/122)
QQQ (40/42)
SPY (40/41)
EEM (35/40)
EFA (31/35)
FUTURES:
/NG (78/73)
/ZW (69/36)
/GC (41/31)
/ES (40/42)
/SI (34/48)
/CL (32/1555)
/ZC (29/32)
/ZS (21/20)
I reference /CL in the header, primarily due to the background implied, but also due to price action. Some of the volatility may piss out at futures open given a supposed agreement by OPEC+ to cut production by 10 million bpd or so, with the last holdout -- Mexico -- coming on board. If we revist $20/bbl., I will consider adding /CL out-of-the-money short puts.
VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES:
What's new ... . We're in a high volatility environment and in backwardation with VIX finishing the week at 41.67.
MUSINGS:
In The IRA: Things aren't looking all that great for me from an acquisition standpoint with the short put ladders I stuck out there for things on my shopping list -- at least for the April "rung" of them. That's okay, since if they expire worthless, I'll keep the premium associated with that rung. Naturally, if I don't pick up jack via assignment, I'll look at re-upping with a rung to replace the expiring worthless if that happens or just let the remaining rungs ride and look for opportunities going forward. A lot can happen in a week ... .