Citigroup
Cash money, but just how much?For those following the Financial Sector two big dates are coming up fast for Citigroup ($C): The 26th of September next week, when the Fed decides rate raising (decreasing/no hike) and mid October when $C and other banks report earnings.
The Sept 21 - $72 strike was just too tempting at $0.20/contract. Now that Citigroup, $XLF and the market in general is heading north, should gains be cut and collected today, tomorrow or are we gliding to the weekend on the wings of euphoria? $C beaten down MACD converged bullish, and the buy rumor sell news still has about 5 more days before expiration (unlike the Sept 21 contracts). The resistance at the $71.5 strike seems to be the only remaining obstacle before a short-term run on $73.
As always, do your own due diligence.
-Bayarizard
Citigroup is a sleeping GIANTI would like to present you the 6month TF, this card shows a slow uptrend, bc the price is trading above the 7EMA line and step to step will reach new highs. Citigroup is a really long run stock, if you want to made a quick profit don't look at it.
I choose this TF merely because it shows that these future months is a stage of accumulation, with 60% upside. Let's answer the question, what's showing indicators.
The RSI has the strong uptrend, and I feel the price will break through the 50 at July 2019, which lead the price to the target $90 p/s. The MACD has made a crossover with its signal line and has the centerline resistance level, but to reach it we need more than 18 months.
How to invest in C?
Simple strategy. If you have some profit from your swing trade take from it 30% to buy some C shares. I'm sure at the end of 2019 you will be happy with your diversified portfolio which will have some percent of C shares.
Good Luck!
ENTER: $65-75
CLOSE: $110 and higher
Likes/Comments, Yes please! :)
Trading Strategy for Parabolic Markets [Part 3]In part 1 I outlined an approach that I have been working on that is aimed towards trading parabolic markets. In part 2 I outlined 4 trades with entries, stop losses and risk:reward calculations. The best position (in terms of risk:reward) has been saved for last.
Notes: Tyler Jenks says, “All hyperwaves are bubbles but not all bubbles are hyperwaves.” This looks much more like a legit bubble than a hyper wave. Weekly chart has been included to illustrate that. | 200 MA > 10 MA > 50 MA | ADX is getting ready to cross 20 in confluence with the bull flag breakout | Weekly ADX getting ready to cross below 20 | Price is currently below 200 day MA and is acting as resistance | 50 week MA is also acting as resistance | Daily RSI = 56.81 and weekly RSI = 53 | Visible Range Volume Profile shows all of the volume at $19 - $50 and very little resistance at higher prices. Since this is not a hyperwave the VRPR and FIB Retracement levels will be very important. The profit targets are also much easier to recognize/calculate.
Q-2 Earnings Report: Deposits: Expected earnings per share: $1.54 vs $1.62 actual earnings per share for a +5.19% surprise. $996.7B vs Projection: $1.009T | Fixed income trading revenue: $308B vs Projection: $3.11B' | Sales from consumer banking and institutional clients: $8.25B & 9.691B for a growth of 2% & 3% respectively.
Time Analysis: Could see it gapping over the 200 day MA on Monday, could also see months of consolidation to follow death cross from 4/26 and ADX falling below 25 on weekly chart.
Possible Entries: Breakout above 200 day MA and 50 week MA - I have set a price alert at $75.59 | Breakout above local high of $81.54 (second price alert) | 50 and 200 day MA golden cross
Risk: Need new low to be established on the weekly after breaking through the 200 MA. If use current low then the risk is 21.25%.
Profit Targets: $125 (+56%) | $236 (+195%) | $399 (+398%)
Risk:Reward: Depends on how much is profit is capitalized at each target and where the next weekly low comes in. Suffice it to say this is the best r:r out of all the positions listed. When there are too many good opportunities for an entry then I like to use the risk:reward ratio to determine the best entry.
Part 1
Part 2
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Citi Is In For a Technically Bumpy RideI did this analysis really elucidate what an "extended ceiling" looks like. The annotations are pretty straight forward AND if you look well enough you'll see an upside-down cup and handle forming and if you squint just right you'll see a head and shoulders forming. I would've shown it on the diagram but the drawing would've become too busy to make sense. Notice too, that the 21-day moving average is working well as a support and as a resistance. Admittedly, I haven't done any fundamental analysis but preliminary, doing things in reverse, we see that Citi, technically, is in for a rough ride. If there's a stock you're fixing to take a position, put the ticker in comments section also what position, long or short, you want to take.
Break out or Break down - $C - CitigroupShort-term call?
After a quick drop and sharp earnings reversal, Citigroup seems to be ready to break out of the "Head and Shoulders" pattern it has been setting for a year. In the past two years especially, the second half of the year has typically been a boon to the Financial Sector. Due to the lack of resistance, if Citigroup does resume it's trend, it's clear skies until $73 or 8 strikes from it's Monday (7/16/18) close of $69.47. MACD & RSI divergence, higher lows & highs, hint it's break out time; although $C tends to test support when closing below a mid-dollar strike (e.g. $68.5, $69.5 ... ) many signs seem bullish.
Short-term Put?
Since the 100-day MA hasn't been traversed quite yet and dimming global outlook for a very globally diverse financial institution are pertinent concerns: a resumption of $C's breakdown toward $67.50 is still plausible; Less likely after $66.50 was touched and multiple lines of support drawn there after during the post-earnings fire-sell, but still plausible all the same. Having a complete collapse like the "Head & Shoulders" suggests, and a fall straight through $66 is more of a longer term trend that is unlikely, but still possible. Caution would be to start with a strangle or straddle around the $69.50 strike, with the call focusing on the resistance-turn-support of $69 (firmly in the money) and roll the dice with the put's placement, with one's choice on potential gains.
At the end of the day:
Financial deregulation, tactical global divestment, Citigroup's 10% share buyback, increase in dividend payouts and a solid beat on it's Q2 earnings (despite the sell-off) all point toward a brighter future. Old allies and Old foes becoming the opposite, nationalistic rhetoric and new Middle-Eastern oil deals all are obstacles, but whether they are insurmountable is up to your short-term hypothesis because only time tells; and time is always money.
JP Morgan in the spotlight before earnings report on 13/07/2018This Friday 13/07/2018 three of the main USA Banks are releasing quarterly results #JPM #C #WFC,
The Banking sector is experiencing positive fundamentals that have been driving the spike of their stocks in recent months:
1. USA Interest rate hikes : according to Bloomberg research, for each 1% that USA increases the interest rate level Banks like Bank of America will be benefited with extra revenue of USD 5,6 Bn.
2. Corporate tax cuts : Donald Trumps´s December 2017 corporate tax cut approval down to 21% is boosting USA Banks tax savings, according to Associated press those savings are reaching USD 3,6 Bn.
3. Deregulation : Donald Trump is willing to continue softening USA Banks regulation, such as the Volcker rule. USA Regulators already started rewriting one of the most debated Dodd Frank´s rule.
• JP Morgan is expected to release USD 2,24 EPS (Nasdaq.com), +23,07% compared to the previous results of USD 1,82 EPS.
• On the April´s 2018 quarterly result the volatility increased up to 603 pips.
Key point:
Now as shown in the chart, JP Morgan is facing a great technical momentum trading above the USD 102-104 range support as well as above two FIBO 0,382 & 0,236.
If the earnings market mover is not able to drive JPM stock clearly below the USD 102-104, I see JP Morgan with a technical bullish momentum above USD 102.
Adrian Lopez de Armentia - EFA
Citigroup still says buy Trade the trend with bullish bias until proven wrong, It bounced nicely off the last safety net of 66, price area around 72 should be interesting to see if bears will keep the ball rolling or let the trend continue to flow. Trend says buy so I buy. Stop loss below 65 if that breaks it will show bears are gaining momentum.
Earnings season for the US banking sector is openingEarnings season for the US banking sector is turning into an active phase tomorrow. Two largest banks - JPMorgan and CitiGroup – will publish their financial statements for the second quarter. This will happen on Friday July 13, 2018 before the market open.
Our expectations for the stock market from the current earnings season are quite optimistic, and as for the US banking sector, they are doubly optimistic.
Let's start with the fact that recently the financial results of corporation act as a catalyst for the growth of American stocks. Here are just a few of the most typical examples: after the publication of the previous financial quarterly report, Apple shares went up by 5% in just one day and increased by 10% during the next week. On the shares of Facebook, everything was even more dynamic - shares during one (!) day grew by 10% (!). Shares of Amazon grew by 15% in just 3 (!) days.
As for the banking sector in general and JPMorgan and CitiGroup in particular, despite the negative reaction of the markets to the quarterly results last time (the results, by the way, were better than the forecasts), we consider the existing conditions to be almost ideal for qualitative and quantitative growth of financial indicators of these banks. This is primarily about the growth of US interest rates, which allow banks to increase their margins and, accordingly, to increase earnings. In addition, Trump's tax reform and the general economic state of the US allow us to expect another excess of expert forecasts from JPMorgan and CitiGroup.
We also note that both banks are characterized by an aggressive dividend policy. And if JPMorgan has long been yielding dividends at 2% per annum, CitiGroup has intensified only recently. But how they became much more active. The growth of dividend payments amounted to almost 200% (!). All this is a serious additional argument in favor of buying shares of JPMorgan and CitiGroup.
Given that the financial results will be published tomorrow BEFORE the opening of the market, the decision on the trade must be taken now. Both shares are near the lower boundaries of their medium-term ranges. So, the prices for purchases are ideal. As for the growth prospects, in both cases we are talking about +/-10% returns (without the leverage). So, in our opinion, these trades (buy JPMorgan and CitiGroup shares) are extremely attractive from all positions, both technical and fundamental. Our recommendation is the purchase of shares of JPMorgan and CitiGroup today from the current prices. Because tomorrow it may be too late.
XLF Has Its Pre Financial Crisis High In SightsThe popular ETF, XLF follows the financial sector and after weeks of selling, it looks to have found support and be gearing up for a big move indicated by the Weekly Squeeze coiling for the past 8 weeks, with the momentum shifting to bullish this week. If you take a look at C (Citigroup), it too has a Weekly Squeeze. If you take a look at it on a Daily it also has a Squeeze which looks like it will fire long. If this move for the financial sector plays out long, I would expect a retest of its high back from January (30.33) then a retest of it's high of 30.84. This high (30.84 - May 28, 2007 - 11+ year ago) is an important one because this was the peak of the financial sector ETF ( XLF ) before the financial crisis of 2008.
A Bad Year For US Financials Looking Even WorseMorgan Stanley, Bank Of America, Citigroup and JPMorgan - all exhibiting similar year to date behaviour. The whole sector is rolling over, reversing the 2017 rallies as the yield curve remains flat, and possibly set to invert. JPMorgan and Bank Of American look particularly bad.. notice both are just managing to hold up above a clear 6 month support. I would bet on break lower in the coming weeks, possibly days. BAC, JPM, C, MS, XLF.
Citigroup Support & PredictionI believe the market support is going to be around $67 for the next few weeks, and a short call of it going to reach a $70 market price within a timely manner is reasonable. The negative correlations and left skewed spread though seems unattractive to investors, but it is still not considered a high risk stock. Overall Citigroup is investable for a conservative portfolio and both an expectancy of it surpassing the $70 price, as well as strong market support trailing at $67 in the meantime, is a reasonable analysis.
The "Cheap" Bank w/ Short Term Trading Gains (PT $75.40)Who couldn't love Citi when it had dropped to $68? Given both the long term and "2017 Hotness" trend lines, the stock has been knocked down between a reasonable to weak area where it can rebound back up to a comfortable "median" position that has been previously held. Reading between the fib lines and the somewhat consistent range of $70-77, it wouldn't be unreasonable for the stock to climb back to around the midpoint of $75. Its earnings call was great, though some will argue with how fantastic it should have been given the current climate and what's priced in.
If the stock reaches $78, absolutely sell and don't be greedy trying to wait for that magic $80 mark. I'm sure everyone will be watching and waiting for it, but without proper volume, it will be a short lived rally up as everyone else takes their gains. I love Citi as a company and believe it to be strong and stable moving forward the rest of this year. Any price point close to $70 is great for a small position and for technical trading to get some ranged gains.
THE WEEK AHEAD: JPM, C, WFC, SMH, AND XBILater in the week, we kick off earnings season with a trio of financials: JPM, C, and WFC,* all of which announce on Friday before market open.
Generally speaking, I haven't played a lot of financials in the past, since their background implied volatility never seems to bump up significantly enough. Here, however, with JPM's implied at 32, C's at 33, and WFC's at 33 -- all toward the upper end of their 52-week ranges, I figured I'd take a look to see whether "this time is different." It looks like it is ... .
The April 20th 23 delta 104/114 short strangle in JPM is paying 1.47 at the mid with break evens at the one standard deviation line, and the corresponding defined risk setup (an iron condor) with strikes at 101/104/114/117 is nearly paying one-third the width of the wings -- a .96/contract credit, with break evens between the expected and a one standard deviation move.
The C April 20th 65/72.5 20 delta short strangle is paying 1.00 even with break evens at the one standard deviation line, implying that a defined risk setup isn't going to pay at least one-third the width of the wings. Moreover, the longs clear of the 20's go 2 1/2 wide ... .
In WFC, the April 20th 49.5/55 22-delta short strangle pays .87/contract with expected move break evens ... .
Out of these three, I'd probably go with the JPM play because the defined risk setup is paying nearly one-third, and the strikes wide of the 20-delta strikes don't go all "wanky." Having strikes in one-wide increments basically everywhere generally leads to fewer rolling headaches. That being said, it's a long way between here and Thursday close, which is when you'd want to look at these underlyings again, adjust your setups accordingly, and see whether they're still worth your while.
On the exchange-traded fund front, the top five implied volatility wise are: OIH (37), SMH (36), XBI (36), XOP (35), and EWZ (32). I'm already in XOP and EWZ plays, so the only thing that makes personal sense for me out of that group are potential plays in SMH or XBI, although I'm sure there's still juice to be had in just short strangling XOP (the May 25th 31.5/38's paying 1.00).
The SMH May 18th 90/108 short strangle (20 delta) pays 2.55 with expected move break evens; its defined risk counterpart, the 87/90/108/111 pays .93, slightly short of the one-third I normally look for, but probably good enough for a less than 40 day until opex setup.
The XBI 75/91 pays 1.98 with expected move break evens; the 72/75/91/94 pays .85 ... .
* -- Given that this trio is closely correlated, it may also be worth taking a look at XLF, although with a background implied of 28, that isn't looking all that juicy at the moment ... .