July Seasonality Patterns For Index, Metals and ForexSeasonality can be a useful tool if used wisely (and in context) with current sentiment and news flows. Seasonality really is a backwards looking indicator that can easily be overpowered by key macro drivers. But its strength comes in to play when seasonality aligns with the macro landscape.
With that in mind, I share my seasonality matrix for indices, metals and USD FX pairs to highlight potential patterns for July, then wrap up with an update on my Nasdaq 100 analysis.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com.
Cityindex
ASX 200 Looks Set to BounceThe ASX 200 has drifted lower since its latest record high was set six days ago. 8500 held as support before doji formed on Tuesday to mark a false break of this key level. ASX 200 futures also tried but failed to break beneath it overnight.
Given the bullish divergence on the 1-hour RSI (14) and RSI (2), the bias is to seek dips towards 8500 for a cheeky long towards the December high.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forexc.com
A Contrarian View On the US DollarI don't recall the last bullish headline I saw for the US dollar, bearish sentiment may be stretched, and I'm seeing plenty of clues across the US dollar index and all FX majors that we could at least be looking at a minor bounce. Whether it can turn into a larger short-covering rally is likely down to Trump's trade deals. Either way, I'm, on guard for an inflection point for the dollar.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com