CL - Friday and still no Gap FillThe Operators got the Chase on in Globex, waited until Lunch to DUMP
per usual.
Just Stellar.
Gap Fill into Close perhaps.
Rude Crude
Cl!
CL - PO Hit during GlobexCrude crossed its Retracement Objective during Globex @ 67.16.
63.73 and 62.42 are now the Lower Range.
OPEC Wraps up today.
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Currently, the largest influence on Oil is the Equity Complex, it is tracking
the NQ closely.
Expect VX in CL as it's due for far more, they'll need to squeeze this back up
to 68.69 to prevent a waterfall decline.
A Break of the LT Trendline is now 64.45 - Price traded it yesterday.
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OPEC Meeting began @ 8 PM EST and should conclude this morning with
an announcement by 10:30 AM EST to 11:30 AM EST.
CL - 1 HourEIA @ 10:30 AM EST
Solid Range for Trading.
69.69 remains the Over / Under for Intra-Day.
A squeeze into Resistance should be considered.
CL - 57 - 92 Range Should this Lower Trend Line Hold...
We will buy it with both hands for 2022
as the 88-92 level could come back into
trade very quickly.
IT WILL NOT BE A SLOW GRIND-UP.
Not a chance of this occurring as Shut-Ins
are wrecking any chance of meeting the
weakest of Demand Globally.
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This could easily be the trade of 2022 for
the quickest and Outsized gains.
Patience, of course, but we have been
eyeballing this for a while now.
Cheers to it running to 57, if not... so be it,
MAR - JUN TFs for Contracts.
If you do not have the Capital to trade Full CTs
then use MCL the Crude Micro.
This trade will be one for the record books and
breaking 92 sets 104 107 114 122 134 141 148 in motion.
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Publishing Limit hits again.
Congratulations are in order to those who followed the
entry plans on Trade.
It was a very good day and more to arrive this week.
It's been extremely volatile and created immense doubt
which is completely understandable.
Patience and a plan work the Majority of the time.
Be well, Be Blessed everyone - HK
CL - Daily / Weakening Structure @ 377s Price ObjectiveCL continues to Lead Lower, we see the reaction @ 64.40 Price Objective
was a Front Run of 3 Ticks, quite small.
IN the end, the Objective was reached, we closed our SELLS again @ 56.
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What is important is the Potential for Crude Oil to now Ping Pong between
the 144 SMA and 377 SMA.
Should it not, then the SELL will amplify again.
The 57 to 62 Range would then come into the Trade.
________________________________________________________________
Frankly, we are excited about this Resolving into 2022.
M2 will continue to expand.
Russia and OPEC as well, the UAE have NO INCENTIVE to create supply
just yet. This is a Coordinated shove lower.
China is facing an enormous dislocation in Housing where 74.7% of the
average Chinese person's Savings reside... it is wreaking havoc on Global
Markets... a Contagion that simply gains traction every day.
EverGrande has defaulted... there are many sources in the US, Germany,
Canada, the UK, and a host of other Holders who has acknowledged there have
been no payments on Bonds.
They won't announce BK, it occurred over a month ago.
China's Real Estate Market is the 1987 Equiv of the German Bund, which kicked
things off then.
Confidence continues to power down, the FED and Admin will be required to do
something/anything to prevent a complete meltdown.
They will, the issue will be when.
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We should now see an RT in Crude Oil.
CL - 1 HourPrice Objective remains 64.40
Operators are able to use Globex for Fills
only to return to the SELL.
This hourly Draw perfectly illustrates what
is being done for Entry into the Trend.
We have Lower, Larger TF Objectives down
to 57 at present.
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We prefer to be Long CRUDE at lower levels,
the imbalances are going to end up irreparable
in 2022.
Lows will be Bought, the issue remains from where.
The lower the better clarity and the possibility
could see a full retracement.
This would be a spectacular offering for those who
understand the Energy Complex games being played.
CL - 1 HourCL was covered over the weekend.
As indicated we are Energy Buyers at levels, in particular - CL.
We believe it will ret-test its 148.20 Level and eventually exceed
it by $100.
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IF the recent Low was the Fill into a new Uptrend... oh my that would
be something surreal for Oil.
I've laid out the OIL Complex Strutuce Fundamentals, which Longer Term
are going to see Extreme Imbalances driving Price.
It is merely just the beginning of Oil's Trade.
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For now, we have Sold our Position and are now back to flat.
Waiting for further Price movements to decide based on how it reacts
at Levels.
CRUDE OIL remains in an enormous WEEKLY/MONTHLY SELL Setup.
CL is approaching Resistance @ 82.66 - We are watching intently...
It would be stunning to see it move up dramatically, completely unexpected
by Price Action...
It gets more interesting each and every day.
Hopefully far lower fills for 2021/2022 - but anything can happen when the
this breaks.
CL - Daily Range / Expanding / Global Oil Market Balance
The Leader Led.
Crude / NYSE Comp / YM / Bitcoin were in a 4/5 confirmation
as Leading Indices last week.
The ES completed 5/5 on the Break and close below 4678.25
and the NQ finally joined the Decline after weeks of Whipsaws,
Side-Steps and Gamma Squeezes.
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There is a great deal of Confusion surrounding the Oil Markets.
It is extremely well founded and entirely understandable.
We will attempt to provide some clarity and bring the OVX into the
Mix of Technical Analysis as well as the Underlying Fundamentals
for Global Energy Markets.
Energy remains a favorite Sector - once the juxtaposition of Operator
adjustments have been made. It's not that time, patience in Energy
will provide Extreme returns as we believe this is simply the beginning.
The Above Chart is self-explanatory. The Cross in SMAs, in particular the
34SMA which acts as a Catalyst in Selloffs in Crude is extreme in its
importance.
The Market Structure is - Terrible.
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Friday's Flash Mob Looting of the Oil Complex is founded in a number of
Cross Currents.
OPEC
OPEC has ZERO incentive to increase Production. None, Nada, Zero, Zip.
Chinese Growth imploded
Europe is considering expanding Lockdowns.
Higher Prices did not encourage OPEC to Invest in Expansion. Investors
and Traders in Crude Oil drive price based upon Greed and Fear of Supply
Shocks as claimed Short Term Structural Deficits did not materialize.
OPEC is in wait and see mode. Probability is they will reverse their decision
to increase production by 400K Bbls/Day.
OPEC is playing the Long Game.
Aggression will be to drain production as Price Declines.
OPEC goal is to Draw Down Inventories - 100%, this is their
strategy.
The only Cure to Lower Prices is Lower Prices.
Deficits will continue to mount as the UAE and Saudi reel in
Supply / Production.
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SPR
A release of 100MBbls is ! 1 Day of Global Consumption.
Within the US ~ 5 days of consumption at Stated Rates (Which are quite
High at 20.6MBbls/Day) - the Actual consumption Rate is likely far less,
perhaps by 40 - 50%.
No matter - at best, the releases equated to 5 to 10 Days of Supply
for the United States.
Further SPR releases from 600.6MBbls are possible.
Crude stored in the Salt Mines is of the Heavy Sour Variety, not desirable
for anything other than Road Tar and Export from the US Existing Refiners
Structure.
It is important to Note - Releases from the are in the form of SWAPs.
The SWAP is a replacement agreement - ie. Oil delivered, under Contract
will be replaced.
2 - 4MBbbls of deficit per week by the Math.
A Backwardated Forward Curve is Bullish - but only in the Longer Term...
Then and ONLY Then. Short Term it is another matter as there are far too
many cross-currents in the Wind.
The Curve suggests Oil Supply is declining now and Participants are placing
less importance on Future Prices.
Until premiums collapsed as they did Friday, which is indeed the WIND.
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US OIL Industry
Capital Investment - Current Projects / Future Projects are NON-EXISTENT.
US negotiations with Iran have all the wrong incentives again. A big nothing
as China buys Iran's OIL at a Large Discount to WTI. Late November is frankly
immaterial.
GASOLINE - RBOB - IS NOT PRICED OFF WTIC, BUT BRENT.
Pump Prices will follow Brent.
Short Cycle Supply - ie. Shale, Production is 77% shut-in. The primary
advantage the United States has over producing Nations - the ability to
quickly ramp production... the opposite is occurring.
What the Markets were Pricing in - a increase in Forward Demand, which
has short term - evaporated - as Short Term Supply is now out of Balance with
Demand.
The New Variant of COVID has a Risk Premium due South regardless of the Back
and Forth Intra-Day.
$10 down on new perceived imbalances.
Oil is a Structural Trade, it separates itself from NG, which is seasonal.
The real winner is GAZPROM, Putin is unwilling to release OIL, Natural Gas...
All the EU wants to purchase.
2008's Financial Crisis mirrors the Initial Speculation in 2021.
Unfortunately, the result will be a Molecule Crisis of Hydrocarbons in 2022.
Weekly Analysis 29th Nov - 4th Dec - horizon after Black FridayFriday's Black Friday introduced significant valuations also on the markets and we met with large anomalies also from the perspective of the Option flow, which we automatically analyze with our software. While we observe a strong directional movement already during the Globex session, it is not worth fighting the trend and it is much safer to try to join it wisely. Anyway, the Gamma Intraday strategy assumes that in the event of breaking the extreme level, we do not fight the trend but try to join the movement. Gamma -1 was broken in the markets during the Overnight / Globex session.
From a medium-term perspective, it's worth going back to the Virgin VPOC levels to assess the potential for moves. The market will try to retest them, the only question is when it will happen. Let's look at the situation on the main instruments:
DAX - a clear downward trend that was deepened during Friday's session. The price is close to the 14946 level, so it should be retested sooner rather than later. The remaining Virgin VPOC levels are above the current price, showing upside potential on the German index - starting at 15,909 with a potential to 16,158.
S & P500 - Friday's panic on the American stock market may only be the beginning of the sell-off. It has been known for a long time that the FED has been pumping sky-high amounts of money for a long time, which causes continuous increases in the S & P500. From the Virgin VPOCs perspective, there is a lot of potential for declines through 4471.50, 4310.25 and ending at 4234.25. This does not negate long-term gains, but it is definitely worth keeping an eye on the downside opportunities.
Gold - despite declines in the main stock exchange indices, we would expect gold to increase significantly in line with the inverse correlation. However, we saw a moderate drop in price on Friday's session and only the end showed the demand entry. Relatively close is the 1763 level, one of the Virgin VPOCs below the current gold price (at the time of writing). The growth potential of Gold looks much more interesting due to Virgin VPOC points at 1817.2 through 1863, 1875.7 with potential at 1885.2
Crude oil - a clear discount on "black gold" on Black Friday, which will surely please drivers at gas stations;) From the perspective of potential, there is a lot of room for growth, with the price reaching 81.37 and 84.22.
Energy - WTI Crude Oil ReversalIdea for USOIL:
- I find it difficult to believe in the energy crisis narrative. I trust the currencies more.
- DXY's rise will create a deflationary bust.
- In time series, seasonality dominates correlations. WTI facing headwinds of bearish seasonality .
Speculate a short term top at least and reversal. Going into next year or even earlier, we will see a shortage turn into a glut.
GLHF
CL - Daily / Weakening StructureCrude Oil has lost both Momentum and Trend.
Now that the 75.62 has broken, the 72.08 to 66.60 Range
is now Open to Trade.
Price had broken Momentum and Trending Clouds with an
outsized move Lower - Exceeding the 3%, 5% ranges.
A 7 - 8% Drop can be Anticipated after the Retracement.
OPEX Meetings - concluded without a great deal of Clarity
as Russia held firm in Output - refusing to Budge and holding
back Supply.
The US is in no position to quickly Ramp Production and with
clear Global contraction underway, there is no real need as
Supply remains plentiful.
The Accident waiting to happen... when Supply itself contracts
and Regional Conflicts begin to Escalate..,
These conflicts are arriving shortly and with it the Price of Oil
will rise again dramatically.
This is our preferred trade for outsized profits into 2022.
Crude Oil will exceed its prior Highs @ 148.60 within 30 Months.
high probality CL UP in next hours cl high probability to go up to 82 dollars
up volume
up rsi
breakout
CL USOIL (WTI OIL) Possible Bullish BatCL USOIL (WTI Oil) is forming what it looks like a possible bullish bat formation.
As more my liking, I do not like how high the C point is at however if the pattern is completed, the formation still valid. The price must test the zones after the 0.382 time zone in order for the pattern to be valid, if price does it before then a trade should not be considered.
Just because the price is forming the structure does not mean that the price will reach such area but if it does, and if it is after the 0.382 time zone, then it will be wise to look at price action to see if it provides with a valid entry opportunity to enter a long trade. If it does not provide a confirmation then a trade should not be entered.
Be patient, always wait for your trade set ups to be completed, wait for a confirmation, follow your rules!.
CL - Daily / Weakening StructureCrude Oil has declined ~$10 in a Choppy Down Trend.
The ALGOs are experts at shaking the Trader's Intr-Day.
The Pattern was interesting as AM Gaps were being Filled,
until they were not, then the Decline began in earnest.
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We have lower-Price Objectives from 67 to 73.
A Contertrend move for 1 to 2 Days is Anticipated this week.
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With China and the USA taking around releasing SPR reserves...
Interesting times ahead.
CL, NYSE COMP DOW the Leaders.
GUERRILLA TRADING - Major buy (OIL)I love this setup. It's pretty rare. It shows hidden massive bull power. And if we can sell oil higher it's great news isn't it?
So Here is the setup: if Oil goes > 78.873 I will be buying oil with a stop loss 25c bellow the low of the previous day (SL at 77.45).
Target is $6-$10 up or 3 daily green candles whichever comes first.
Let's rock n roll if this is confirmed.
OANDA:WTICOUSD
CL - LeadingCL and the DOW are presenting a clear picture as to the
underlying strength.
There is none.
ALGO Jam after Jam.
FED was $0 on the Spot today with Coupon Purchases.
IF that was a high for NQ, it was an extreme form run of 50 Handles.
Watch the $DXY for $CL_F #Oil The recent move in the dollar has put a lot of pressure on oil recently...as it has been skidding around $80 the past few days.
Yesterday's API report showed a small increase in oil inventories and the market is waiting for confirmation from EIA later today.
It looks as though a confirmation has already been priced in and only an unexpected increase well above +600k barrels would shock the market to further downside in the short term.
The structural market to watch is the dollar which has seen a 200 basis point move in a very short time frame. The DXY looks quite a bit extended. If we get a reversion to the mean in the dollar...oil should explode higher.
Today we have quite a few Fed speakers and a 20 year bond auction which could move the dollar.
So today may be a make or break day for oil.
CL - Glasgow Summit's Coal Boiler Room200 Nations struggles to find consensus, which is required.
Kill Coal was on the Agenda.
Meanwhile, the Co-Pilot in charge mused:
"If you buy an Electric Vehicle you can Drive Across America
on a Single Tank of Gas."
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Crude OIl Inventories after five weeks of builds - show a draw...
and are sold again.
It either gets up off the dirt or begins to plunge to the 60s.
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This week is pivotal.
expecting a breakout on USOIL.Now that we are back to about zero for our entry position and waited a deep pullback out. We did hedge some so made money's on dip and on rise back after. so overall money made, but entry position still at zero.
Now we expect breakout.
Price is getting squeezed in EMA's and horizontal resistant at 83.
If 83 is broke, than should go to new high at 85.4 with take some profit at 83.4 which be strong supply zone. once past here than watch out for more upside and money.
trade safe. spread kindness and love.
Ms Bunny
Because of the price decline, and according to my analysis Because of the price decline, and according to my analysis of modest art, I expect a sharp drop in the price
CL! - LONG trade ideaWe swept the lows on the 4H OB. Considering this might be an SFP, taking a LONG towards the FIB 0.79. There is also a bullish divergence present on the RSI which gives another impulse for a LONG.
#OIL: Huge uptrend potential in oil hereI think we are ready for the next big rally in oil, this will cause a dramatic effect on inflation and affect earnings negatively going forward long term. I think it could reach as high as over $100 a barrel by mid August here. If so, the impact on the economy would be very large, with a delay of 6 months according to research by my mentor, @timwest
With the Iran deal on the horizon, and the recent turn of events in the OPEC meeting, supply is going to be lower than demand and the US might be at risk of losing their energy independence that Trump had achieved during his tenure (also of note is the recent ESG activist shareholder movement, really concerning for the future of investment in increasing supply to meet demand from shale companies in the US).
Consider the return to normal in air travel as a factor here as well, no one is really prepared for a move like this, and most media talking heads are repeating like parrots that inflation will be transitory, as if they were under the govt's payroll. Nasty turn of events indeed, but a good opportunity for those long value and commodities.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
CL - Algos and the Range to 88.21 Price ObjectiveThis Friday is going to be one for the Books in Crude Oil.
We have API/EIA/RIGs Data ahead this week.
Participants are clearly positioned for the Measured Move.
Our Fills remain open at @ 82.15 to 82.69, backtesting the
Support Levels after Last week's Price Levels.
