CL - FridayCrude Oil is wandering in a Desert for Price once again, we Observed
the Pit over Close @ 66 vs 73 - A higher close.
Cl Traded Resistance during Globex, it is now Trading to Support.
Friday's are generally kind to CL, CL Friday's remove more Capital
from Traders than any other day of the week.
Trade the Range - Gaps have a nasty habit of filling on CL every
Friday.
Today, depending on the OVX could be unsettling...
Cl!
CL -Trading Sir EarlAmazing how many traders venture into the Bahama Banks of Trading - Crude Oil
Twice a day, the bellows of Open Outcry remnants begin.
CL has always used the .55 and .85 as PIT PIVOTS.
You can too.
The Salient Point here is this...
The 82.69 Pit Close is highly relevant in TREND...
8266 traded during the PIT this AM Session.
It completed 2 Objectives:
1. The Gap Fill - the NEXT SELL
2. The Tag of the Prior Pit Pivot when which confirmed the TREND.
It was missed by 3 Ticks, CONFIRMING Lower Price Objectives...
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Trading Involves WORK, if you are immune to doing it, please don't
ask me to explain.
It demonstrates a clear lack of congruent traing behaviors and overall
ignorance to what you are doing with your Capital.
If you don't respect it... don't anticipate I will.
Time, is never returned, don't waste it.
CL - Indicated a Weakening Structure Last Week85.10 was our Price Objective, it was met and dipped in by a Tick.
We have patiently traded the Front Runs of AM & PM Pit Opens
off the Lows, the AM Session was an amazing runup.
CL can pull back to 80.22 - 80.71.
Although the Wedge indicates Higher...
Wall Street always gets its Fill.
What can we learn from the previous 2 Bull Runs on Crude Oil? Today, we will look at the weekly chart on Crude Oil, one of my favorite assets to trade due to the astonishing technical behavior, and how reliable it is when a trend is confirmed.
First, we will analyze this from a technical perspective:
- The price has broken a triangle pattern (ABCDE)
- After reaching the first resistance zone, we saw a breakout of the zone. (which works as a long term confirmation of our bullish view)
- Currently, the price is above the previous resistance zone (this is a relevant level to think in terms of corrections. Let see why in a second)
- The next level on the Weekly chart as a major target is the next resistance zone at 110.00
What can we learn from the previous 2 bull runs?
First Bull run: OCT 2001 - JUN 2008 / The main concept I want to show here is the middle correction between the two impulsive waves we can see on the chart. 182 correction (JUL 2006 - JAN 2007)
Second Bull run: JAN 2009 - MAY 2011 / In this bull run, we also saw a clear middle correction from MAR 2010 to MAY 2010 before the beginning of the next bullish impulse
Third Bull Run: APR 2020 - UNTIL present / Based on the previous situations, we can see that it is standard to observe a correction before the continuation of the bullish movement. Also, it's important to see that we are in the exact same zone where all these corrections happened in the past (around 78.00)
Key Takeaway: The price tends to follow previous situations or structures. This is something you can see on any chart that you have enough historical data to see this concept. What I'm observing now is that Crude Oil has rallied since APR 2020 without making a significant correction. Based on the behavior of similar BullRuns on the past + The current level, I'm open to a corrective movement that may happen now or may happen after the price reaches 90.00 USD per barrel. I will develop bullish setups after that. At the moment, I'm not interested in opening new long positions.
Also, consider that this may not happen. And in that case, I should develop a new filter according to the changing conditions.
Thanks for reading!
CL - Incated Break of 77 Lit FuseWe indicated breaking and Closing above the 77 had the Potential
for an explosive move higher.
The Weekly High to High Extensions show the clear Trend and
ST Price Objectives.
The Channel, crystal clear.
104 / 107 / 114 remain the Longer Term Objectives unless the Weekly
Trend Line fails.
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CL is acting precisely as it should by Price.
CL - The Chase to 88 remains / Overextension aheadThe High to High Measured Move on the 4 Hr indicates it NEEDs
to continue to move Vertical.
CL adores Fridays...
So do the Chasers in CL.
It is a trade laden with Safety for some, they see it as a hedge, a necessity.
They are not wrong, the break from 77 gave us a clear indication we would
eventually Price Hunt 104 / 107 / 114 / 148 and far higher in time.
We traded a small sell from 83.36 to the .764 @ 83.03, it was front-run
and we flipped to Buy Side.
STO 8336 - BTC 8312
BTO 8314 - STC 8356
The wild child is primed for FRYday.
CL - Correction Probability Increasing Crude Oil often provides information as to where Equity Price will begin to Trade,
more often than not it Leads.
The DX is providing what little lift remains in the 80 - 85 Range.
EIA is out today @ 10:30 AM EST.
The reaction will be informative, bares close observation.
CL - Crude Oil 4HrThe Monthly CL Draw - 6.50 to 148.40 Draw provided clear guidance
as to the Break of 77 as we indicated on the Breakout.
If you followed the Trade, it has been solid, we're $6 over the break.
The Apex has a number of higher Targets, 85 - 88. We will see the
reaction @ the Zenith of the first, second, and third Apex.
The Price of many Soft Inputs - Canola, Soy, Oats, and a great many
others (excluding Rough Rice, of course) continue to suggest the
Transitory expectation for Food Prices remains in defienace.
Gold reversed all of its gains, we have an increasingly larger
range 1596 - 1909 / Yields are adding pressure, the momentary
rally appears to have concluded.
With the BTC ETF ahead, the distractions abound. Wall Street will
do precisely as they did with the launch of the BTC Futures Contract.
Let it breathe and then SELL it without remorse. We will follow riding
their Trench Coats as they will dig a rather large Trench for BTC.
TECH is hostage to EPS / Bond Yields / VXN / VX Curve.
PUT buying has been strong after Dr. Bury was buried in Tesla PUTS,
cashing out Thursday / Friday. We will begin to enter PUT Positions
for Tesla into EPS. @ 900-920 / 760 with 2% committed, as soon as prems
become more elevated, we will Strike.
Tulips abound, consolidation to higher into October 20/21 then Dump
once again until the FOMO Rally concludes.
Crude will provide plenty of Indications this week.
Trade Safe - HK
CL - Backtesting the BreakoutCL is testing Large Years-long Resistance and Support.
Patience will be required, the Run to the Price Objective
just shy of $80 @ $79.80 was a large Front Run.
It will be interesting to see how OPEC games this.
Supply is frankly not an issue, it is a matter of choke points
being used to disrupt.
CL +400 Ticks Bullish on Daily The CL one hour time frame was in an up channel.
The market has broken above the top of the
channel. It will be a good idea to look for low
prices above the top of the channel.
Entry: A closed candlestick above a counter trend
line break bullish above the top of the channel.
STOP: 73.88
LIMIT: 82.69
As long as the market stays above the top of the
channel. It will be a good idea to turn to the five
minute time frame and to look for tunnel trader
long / destination trader long opportunities
towards the daily up Fibonacci price point 82.69
CL - New HighWatch Crude Oil closely, it may be on the
verge of an explosive move.
It ALSO has a very Bad Habit of making
New Highs priors to selling off...
A quick Dip-In prior to reversal. One thing
does appear higher probability than usual,
Crude Oil will retest its Highs and Double
them...
Watch the reaction for a close over $77
as OPEC meeting.
A weekly close over $77... and this can get
Vertical Day after Day to 104.
CL futures. Good level practice 70$2 days since my last idea about Oil.It gave good trade with short stop loss .With risk 20 cent we earn more than 1 dollar.Our level 70 was placed right becouse we can se that price cinfirm this level many times , byers still trying to protect this level.The main now is look where price will close today, if it will close near 70$ its not good sign, becouse all who buy over 70 have stop loss under this price.
NQ - CPI / Yields + ES YM RTY - Structure SummaryIntra-Day setups remain our only trades as the VIX completes Settlement Tomorrow.
Puts are again becoming attractive as this weeks Gamma Squeeze is beginning to
become extended.
AAPL -150 CALLS * Apple claims they will be unaffected by Semi Shortages
TSLA - 750 Calls
AMC - 56 Calls
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20 Weeks SemiConductor lead times.
Q3 EPS warings begin next week
VXN Pullback
ZN broke the Long we are watching the 133.125 Level
TLT weakening in structure sub 150
***12735 is the Longer Term Price Objective into November
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ES YM RTY remain in a Micro Squeeze on VIX Settle and pullback potential to 19.20
ES - remains within its Series, Resisitance is holding for now, the Objective is a full 50%
retracement off the conter-trend long from lows.
ES PO - Larger Resistance 4492 - 4505
YM - 34993 -35035 Objective
RTY - Ranging between 2119 - 2335
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CL - 7161 breaks and we have the potential to return to the Weekly FHWB @ 77.00
CPI will have a large effect upon CL
Previous highs acting as support... mean higher for now.
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Food Prices rose 16% MOM... CPI Ex - Food/Energy
Energy Prices are up significantly MOM
Dollar / JPY is gaining strenght implies a clear flight to Safety and RISK OFF
109.83 sends it higher... far higher.
10Yr Yields remain just below a breakout at 1.417
Financials have failed at resitance repeatedly - 4521 the level of Micro Resistance
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The FED removes theor gloves next week ahead of important elections. Namely It Canada intially
as Treadeau is the Chimp to watch for the Green Agenda in North America... it is extreme in its
importance for the Agenda.
Europes selections will be followed closely as well as LaGarde has teed up her Chimps to advance
the Agenda.
California has the Governors recall which appear to be failing quietly. Gavin is a piece of work, little
HItler disguised as a Sunbeam.
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Geopolitics will have far more impact than has been priced in...
CL futures .Good opportunity to buy higher 70Oil stil having a bull trend, it accumulate energie more than a week, clean zone until price 74$.
I will by oil only when price will broke 70 and make retest so its confirm that our level is good and buyers trying to ceep price over this level.
Stopp loss not more than 10-15% from ATR (arround 20 cents). Take Profit minimum 60 cents .Enterin only with law volatility.
NQ - Fridays / ES YM RTY TLT ZN AMC TQQQ CLNQ is the last to break.
It's Friday.
The FED is providing $8.34 Billion in Coupon Purchases.
1/4 to 1/2 Size today.
We will be watching until 10AM EST, to see IF there is
support of any kind.
Selling pressure yesterday was significant, but
again... it's Friday.
Commentary from 2 prior Sessions does not change.
Have a good weekend - HK
CL - Wedging out for Break Crude Oil remains in a Weekly SELL, Resistance continues to hold
overhead after reaching our 7061 TGT.
With the DX gaining strength, CL will come under pressure.
Price Objective - 67.68
CL - IF we are to see a ReversalCrude Oil will provide indications a sign of the next decline.
Our Price Objective was met, typically CL will exceed these
PO's prior to a reversal.
We sill see it there is a 2nd test of the highs tomorrow.
The lower Price Objective in Trend is 57.
Monthly Draw is 6.50 to ATH @ 148.20.
Large, volatility should continue to build.