WTI HIT STOPS AND DROP LOWER ?WTI is gathering stops above the range
Looking for CPI volatility (Dollar higher ?) to provide excuse to hit stops and drop lower
Daily imbalance in the current range as (first ?) downside target (75.00)
Cl!
usoil long 4h When trading crude oil using technical analysis, it is important to consider the following key factors:
Chart patterns: Understanding common chart patterns, such as head and shoulders, triangles, and trend lines, can help traders identify potential buying or selling opportunities in the market.
Technical indicators: Technical indicators, such as moving averages, Bollinger Bands, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI), can provide valuable information about market trends and help traders determine the strength of a trend.
Supply and demand: Traders should also consider supply and demand dynamics, such as changes in production levels, global economic conditions, and geopolitical events, which can greatly impact the price of crude oil.
Volatility: The crude oil market is known for its high volatility, and traders should be prepared for significant price movements. It is important to have a risk management strategy in place to limit potential losses.
Diversification: As with any investment, it is important to diversify one's portfolio to minimize risk. Crude oil should be just one component of a well-diversified investment portfolio.
Keep updated: Staying informed about market news and developments, such as changes in production levels, geopolitical events, and economic indicators, can help traders make informed investment decisions.
Patience and discipline: Successful trading in the crude oil market requires patience and discipline. Traders should not make hasty decisions based on emotions, and instead follow a well-thought-out trading plan.
In conclusion, technical analysis can provide valuable insights into the crude oil market, but it should be used in conjunction with other forms of analysis and a well-diversified investment portfolio. As with any investment, there are risks involved and traders should always approach the market with caution.
Crude Oil Weekly Forecast 30 Jan - 3 Feb 2023 Crude Oil Weekly Forecast 30 Jan - 3 Feb 2023
Based on the data from OVX we can see that currently the IV for this week is at 40.5%, equal to last week.
This can be translated in +/- 5.62% weekly movement from the open of the candle, which makes the next top/bot channel
TOP: 84.54
BOT: 75.54
If we were to make a more accurate statement, based on the current percentile of the OVX( from 0 to 10) , we can apply a condition in the filter
to look for scenarios when the volatility were lower than 50 percentile( bottom half). If we were to take this data we can see, that our numbers would be:
74% according to the last 20 years of data
50% according to the data since 2022( I would recommend the 72% instead)
So we can use this data instead for proper calculation of our trading plan
From the technical rating analysis point of view we can deduct the next information:
Currently there is a :
31.5% to touch the previous weekly high
66% to touch the previous weekly low(already hit)
At the same time if we are going to take a look at the moving average rating for different timeframes we can see :
4H Timeframe: -26% Bearish Trend
D Timeframe: 0% Bearish Trend
W Timeframe: -53% Bearish Trend
Lastly on average, based on the current percentile, we can expect that our asset is going to move:
4.65% from the open to the close candle for the bullish scenario
5.6% from the open to the close candle for the bearish scenario
Elliott Wave Outlook Suggests Oil (CL) Should Continue HigherOil shows a bullish sequence from 12.10.2022 low favoring further upside. Rally from there is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from 12.10.2022 low, wave 1 ended at 81.50 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 72.46. Internal subdivision of wave 2 took the form of a zigzag structure as the chart below shows. Down from wave 1, wave ((a)) ended at 76.6, wave ((b)) ended at 77.42, and wave ((c)) ended at 72.46. This completed wave 2 in higher degree. Wave 3 higher is in progress with internal subdivision as another impulse in lesser degree.
Up from wave 2, wave (i) ended at 74.91 and dips in wave (ii) ended at 73.25. Oil then extends higher in wave (iii) towards 81.23, and dips in wave (iv) ended at 79.25. Final leg higher wave (v) ended at 82.38 which completed wave ((i)). Wave ((ii)) pullback is in progress with internal subdivision as a zigzag structure. Down from wave ((i)), wave (a) ended at 78.13. Expect a wave (b) rally followed by another turn lower in wave (c) to complete wave ((ii)) before the rally in Oil resumes.
USOIL possible resistance and downtrendSentiment seems to be bullish on WTI with a H&S Inverted pattern but we could have a different view on the price movement actually.
We are now testing multiweek trendline and we could see another downfall as beginning of New Year
USOIL sell opportunityOil news was bearish in particular (11.01.2023) with a very large supply increase at the EIA. However market rallied and took out many short positioned traders. We anticipated this and remained neutral. For now, we see a possible rise into the impending CPI news to take out more liquidity before the continuation of downtrend for USOIL.
Crude Oil Weekly Volatility Analysis 9-13 Jan 2023 Crude Oil Weekly Volatility Analysis 9-13 Jan 2023
We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is 5.72%
With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 74th percentile.
Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between:
*For calculations, I am using the data since 2022*
Bullish: 4.6% movement
Bearish: 5.7% movement
At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset,
meaning that there is a 29% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel:
TOP: 77.9
BOT: 69.22
Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is :
31.5% probability we are going to touch previous weekly high
66.8% probability we are going to touch previous weekly low
Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from
Daily timeframe indicates -53.33% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index
Weekly timeframe indicates -66.67 BEARISH trend from the moving averages index
Monthly timeframe indicates 13.33% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index
OIL DAILY SAY = more down possible but upper fibo61% is targetwe know oil is very very very veryyyyyyyy trendy market and go against trend is very dangerous agree?
wait near 71$ low and after pinbar comes on 1h-4h-daily chart pick buy with sl in low and try hold it 2-3 week ,,,technical say oil upper target is 85 then 100 $
predict = we predict oil fair price is 50$,,,,aftter 2-3 uptrend wave it can go down wild so dont open big size and without SL
good luck
Financial Wave. CLWe have adjusted our priority scenario in CL. Downward acceleration in wave 3 looks most likely and could bring oil prices to $62.92. If the price of oil rises to $81.72 we’ll change our view. In support of our opinion, we also want to note:
1. Strong winds and mild temperatures will certainly reduce energy demand.
2. Bubbles burst in the financial markets. One of them, the real estate market in Canada, UK, Sweden and Australia. This is another sign that social sentiment is turning negative.
Financial Wave. CLOur priority scenario in CL remains the same. A fall in price to $72.37 looks most likely. In case of growth above $80, this scenario will be cancelled.
Financial Wave. CLOur preferable scenario in CL is the development of the medium-term downward price movement in wave iii, which can lead prices to the first target level of $72.39. If the price rises above $80, this scenario will change.
$CL - Potential move to finish off the week We were correct on our initial idea earlier in the week. I was anticipating CL to trade to into the fvg above on the daily chart. Once in here sells were valid. Now, im looking for a brief sell off from this 4HR breaker + fvg. Lets see what happens.
Financial Wave. CLWe continue to stick to our priority scenario in CL and believe that a rise in wave (c) looks the most likely. Price drop below $72.37 jeopardizes this scenario.
CLCL.
The growth in wave (a) looks complete. Our priority scenario in the CL is the continuation of the growth in wave (c) after the price pullback in wave (b). Correction can lead CL to $74.36, after which growth will continue. The critical level, which will cancel this scenario $72.63
Crude Oil Weekly Volatility Analysis 12-16 Dec 2022 We cCrude Oil Weekly Volatility Analysis 12-16 Dec 2022
We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 6.51%, up from 6.33% from last week according to OVX data
With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 83th percentile,
while according to OVX, we are on 77th percentile.
Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between:
Bullish: 4.62% movement
Bearish: 5.6% movement
At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset,
meaning that there is a 21.3% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel:
TOP: 76.33
BOT: 67.24
Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is :
30% probability we are going to touch previous high 76.2
67% probability we are going to touch previous low 70.1
Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from
Weekly timeframe indicates -66% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index
Daily timeframe indicates -80% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index
4H timeframe indicates -53% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index
Financial Wave. CLCL
In past reviews, we showed our priority scenario, the price drop almost led to the $68 level that we indicated as a target. Most likely this goal will be fulfilled by the market. Our scenario allows a pullback, but not above $75.50 - this level cancels the fall scenario. Let's see how the price near $68 will behave.
CL Daily Long Idea. Will support holdThe CL daily time frame has pushed bullish off
the monthly support price point 74.40. The market
pushed bullish above the inner trend line and is
showing signs of a potential bullish trend to form.
There is another level of resistance above the
market at price point 88.31 about +810 ticks
above the market. As long as the market stays
above 74.40. It will be a good idea to turn to the
one hour time frame and look for low prices
in the buy zone.
Financial Wave. CLCL
Our preferable scenario for CL is to drop the price to $68. The $83-$86 range is key for the CL, the $86 price move cancels our scenario.
CL back to $90 a barrel?Following price cap on Russian oil, Opec+ is likely to cut oil supply for the second time.
Technically, CL has broken above the downtrend resistance and now in a correction wave.
Getting filled at $77 will give us the ideal RRR in this trade.
Oil - will price hit TP2 or TP3?USOUSD - Forex - OIL - Price bounced off the $75 level - Will this swing to the up side continue or is it over for now? What are your thoughts on oil?
Financial Wave. CLOur preferable scenario changed after the price of CL went below $76.20. To complete the downward movement, the price may drop below $70. A rise above $79 will resume the upward move and cancel our view.
