Cl!
USOIL sell opportunityOil news was bearish in particular (11.01.2023) with a very large supply increase at the EIA. However market rallied and took out many short positioned traders. We anticipated this and remained neutral. For now, we see a possible rise into the impending CPI news to take out more liquidity before the continuation of downtrend for USOIL.
Crude Oil Weekly Volatility Analysis 9-13 Jan 2023 Crude Oil Weekly Volatility Analysis 9-13 Jan 2023
We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is 5.72%
With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 74th percentile.
Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between:
*For calculations, I am using the data since 2022*
Bullish: 4.6% movement
Bearish: 5.7% movement
At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset,
meaning that there is a 29% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel:
TOP: 77.9
BOT: 69.22
Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is :
31.5% probability we are going to touch previous weekly high
66.8% probability we are going to touch previous weekly low
Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from
Daily timeframe indicates -53.33% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index
Weekly timeframe indicates -66.67 BEARISH trend from the moving averages index
Monthly timeframe indicates 13.33% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index
OIL DAILY SAY = more down possible but upper fibo61% is targetwe know oil is very very very veryyyyyyyy trendy market and go against trend is very dangerous agree?
wait near 71$ low and after pinbar comes on 1h-4h-daily chart pick buy with sl in low and try hold it 2-3 week ,,,technical say oil upper target is 85 then 100 $
predict = we predict oil fair price is 50$,,,,aftter 2-3 uptrend wave it can go down wild so dont open big size and without SL
good luck
Financial Wave. CLWe have adjusted our priority scenario in CL. Downward acceleration in wave 3 looks most likely and could bring oil prices to $62.92. If the price of oil rises to $81.72 we’ll change our view. In support of our opinion, we also want to note:
1. Strong winds and mild temperatures will certainly reduce energy demand.
2. Bubbles burst in the financial markets. One of them, the real estate market in Canada, UK, Sweden and Australia. This is another sign that social sentiment is turning negative.
Crude Oil Weekly Volatility Analysis 12-16 Dec 2022 We cCrude Oil Weekly Volatility Analysis 12-16 Dec 2022
We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 6.51%, up from 6.33% from last week according to OVX data
With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 83th percentile,
while according to OVX, we are on 77th percentile.
Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between:
Bullish: 4.62% movement
Bearish: 5.6% movement
At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset,
meaning that there is a 21.3% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel:
TOP: 76.33
BOT: 67.24
Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is :
30% probability we are going to touch previous high 76.2
67% probability we are going to touch previous low 70.1
Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from
Weekly timeframe indicates -66% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index
Daily timeframe indicates -80% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index
4H timeframe indicates -53% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index
Financial Wave. CLCL
In past reviews, we showed our priority scenario, the price drop almost led to the $68 level that we indicated as a target. Most likely this goal will be fulfilled by the market. Our scenario allows a pullback, but not above $75.50 - this level cancels the fall scenario. Let's see how the price near $68 will behave.
CL Daily Long Idea. Will support holdThe CL daily time frame has pushed bullish off
the monthly support price point 74.40. The market
pushed bullish above the inner trend line and is
showing signs of a potential bullish trend to form.
There is another level of resistance above the
market at price point 88.31 about +810 ticks
above the market. As long as the market stays
above 74.40. It will be a good idea to turn to the
one hour time frame and look for low prices
in the buy zone.
Crude Oil is BearishNYMEX:CL1!
Crude Oil futures marked on the 4h chart
After being neutral the past week due to ranging behavior, CL has just possibly shown its hand on where it is headed to in the short term.
Confluences
Overall bearish order flow since the summer.
Liquidity grab at the double top (marked with the X line).
Market Structure Shift (MSS) by breaking the short term low at ~87.60.
Retraced into 4h imbalance and rejected it, thus showing it is respecting a premium price and now seeking a discount.
In premium of September 26 - October 9 dealing range as shown by the fibonacci.
Looks like bread-and-butter sell model in the making.
Current signs show oil is intending to go lower. I am anticipating at least 81.30 as a target level because there is a liquidity void resting below it.
CL Daily up TrendThe CL daily time frame broke the short term
down trend line and has entered into the buy
zone. The market has an up Fibonacci with an
extension price point 104.39 about +1,909 ticks
above the market. As long as the market stays
in the buy zone above the short term down trend
line. It will be a good idea to turn to the one
hour time frame and to look for low prices in the
buy zone.