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CL

CL - 1 HourPrice Objective remains 64.40 Operators are able to use Globex for Fills only to return to the SELL. This hourly Draw perfectly illustrates what is being done for Entry into the Trend. We have Lower, Larger TF Objectives down to 57 at present. ______________________________________ We prefer to be Long CRUDE at lower levels, the imbalances are going to end up irreparable in 2022. Lows will be Bought, the issue remains from where. The lower the better clarity and the possibility could see a full retracement. This would be a spectacular offering for those who understand the Energy Complex games being played.
NYMEX:CL1!
by HK_L61
2
CL - 1 HourCL was covered over the weekend. As indicated we are Energy Buyers at levels, in particular - CL. We believe it will ret-test its 148.20 Level and eventually exceed it by $100. ________________________________________________________ IF the recent Low was the Fill into a new Uptrend... oh my that would be something surreal for Oil. I've laid out the OIL Complex Strutuce Fundamentals, which Longer Term are going to see Extreme Imbalances driving Price. It is merely just the beginning of Oil's Trade. _________________________________________________________ For now, we have Sold our Position and are now back to flat. Waiting for further Price movements to decide based on how it reacts at Levels. CRUDE OIL remains in an enormous WEEKLY/MONTHLY SELL Setup. CL is approaching Resistance @ 82.66 - We are watching intently... It would be stunning to see it move up dramatically, completely unexpected by Price Action... It gets more interesting each and every day. Hopefully far lower fills for 2021/2022 - but anything can happen when the this breaks.
NYMEX:CL1!
by HK_L61
11
CL - Daily Range / Expanding / Global Oil Market Balance The Leader Led. Crude / NYSE Comp / YM / Bitcoin were in a 4/5 confirmation as Leading Indices last week. The ES completed 5/5 on the Break and close below 4678.25 and the NQ finally joined the Decline after weeks of Whipsaws, Side-Steps and Gamma Squeezes. _______________________________________________________ There is a great deal of Confusion surrounding the Oil Markets. It is extremely well founded and entirely understandable. We will attempt to provide some clarity and bring the OVX into the Mix of Technical Analysis as well as the Underlying Fundamentals for Global Energy Markets. Energy remains a favorite Sector - once the juxtaposition of Operator adjustments have been made. It's not that time, patience in Energy will provide Extreme returns as we believe this is simply the beginning. The Above Chart is self-explanatory. The Cross in SMAs, in particular the 34SMA which acts as a Catalyst in Selloffs in Crude is extreme in its importance. The Market Structure is - Terrible. _________________________________________________________ Friday's Flash Mob Looting of the Oil Complex is founded in a number of Cross Currents. OPEC OPEC has ZERO incentive to increase Production. None, Nada, Zero, Zip. Chinese Growth imploded Europe is considering expanding Lockdowns. Higher Prices did not encourage OPEC to Invest in Expansion. Investors and Traders in Crude Oil drive price based upon Greed and Fear of Supply Shocks as claimed Short Term Structural Deficits did not materialize. OPEC is in wait and see mode. Probability is they will reverse their decision to increase production by 400K Bbls/Day. OPEC is playing the Long Game. Aggression will be to drain production as Price Declines. OPEC goal is to Draw Down Inventories - 100%, this is their strategy. The only Cure to Lower Prices is Lower Prices. Deficits will continue to mount as the UAE and Saudi reel in Supply / Production. _________________________________________________________ SPR A release of 100MBbls is ! 1 Day of Global Consumption. Within the US ~ 5 days of consumption at Stated Rates (Which are quite High at 20.6MBbls/Day) - the Actual consumption Rate is likely far less, perhaps by 40 - 50%. No matter - at best, the releases equated to 5 to 10 Days of Supply for the United States. Further SPR releases from 600.6MBbls are possible. Crude stored in the Salt Mines is of the Heavy Sour Variety, not desirable for anything other than Road Tar and Export from the US Existing Refiners Structure. It is important to Note - Releases from the are in the form of SWAPs. The SWAP is a replacement agreement - ie. Oil delivered, under Contract will be replaced. 2 - 4MBbbls of deficit per week by the Math. A Backwardated Forward Curve is Bullish - but only in the Longer Term... Then and ONLY Then. Short Term it is another matter as there are far too many cross-currents in the Wind. The Curve suggests Oil Supply is declining now and Participants are placing less importance on Future Prices. Until premiums collapsed as they did Friday, which is indeed the WIND. ______________________________________________________________ US OIL Industry Capital Investment - Current Projects / Future Projects are NON-EXISTENT. US negotiations with Iran have all the wrong incentives again. A big nothing as China buys Iran's OIL at a Large Discount to WTI. Late November is frankly immaterial. GASOLINE - RBOB - IS NOT PRICED OFF WTIC, BUT BRENT. Pump Prices will follow Brent. Short Cycle Supply - ie. Shale, Production is 77% shut-in. The primary advantage the United States has over producing Nations - the ability to quickly ramp production... the opposite is occurring. What the Markets were Pricing in - a increase in Forward Demand, which has short term - evaporated - as Short Term Supply is now out of Balance with Demand. The New Variant of COVID has a Risk Premium due South regardless of the Back and Forth Intra-Day. $10 down on new perceived imbalances. Oil is a Structural Trade, it separates itself from NG, which is seasonal. The real winner is GAZPROM, Putin is unwilling to release OIL, Natural Gas... All the EU wants to purchase. 2008's Financial Crisis mirrors the Initial Speculation in 2021. Unfortunately, the result will be a Molecule Crisis of Hydrocarbons in 2022.
NYMEX:CL1!
by HK_L61
Weekly Analysis 29th Nov - 4th Dec - horizon after Black FridayFriday's Black Friday introduced significant valuations also on the markets and we met with large anomalies also from the perspective of the Option flow, which we automatically analyze with our software. While we observe a strong directional movement already during the Globex session, it is not worth fighting the trend and it is much safer to try to join it wisely. Anyway, the Gamma Intraday strategy assumes that in the event of breaking the extreme level, we do not fight the trend but try to join the movement. Gamma -1 was broken in the markets during the Overnight / Globex session. From a medium-term perspective, it's worth going back to the Virgin VPOC levels to assess the potential for moves. The market will try to retest them, the only question is when it will happen. Let's look at the situation on the main instruments: DAX - a clear downward trend that was deepened during Friday's session. The price is close to the 14946 level, so it should be retested sooner rather than later. The remaining Virgin VPOC levels are above the current price, showing upside potential on the German index - starting at 15,909 with a potential to 16,158. S & P500 - Friday's panic on the American stock market may only be the beginning of the sell-off. It has been known for a long time that the FED has been pumping sky-high amounts of money for a long time, which causes continuous increases in the S & P500. From the Virgin VPOCs perspective, there is a lot of potential for declines through 4471.50, 4310.25 and ending at 4234.25. This does not negate long-term gains, but it is definitely worth keeping an eye on the downside opportunities. Gold - despite declines in the main stock exchange indices, we would expect gold to increase significantly in line with the inverse correlation. However, we saw a moderate drop in price on Friday's session and only the end showed the demand entry. Relatively close is the 1763 level, one of the Virgin VPOCs below the current gold price (at the time of writing). The growth potential of Gold looks much more interesting due to Virgin VPOC points at 1817.2 through 1863, 1875.7 with potential at 1885.2 Crude oil - a clear discount on "black gold" on Black Friday, which will surely please drivers at gas stations;) From the perspective of potential, there is a lot of room for growth, with the price reaching 81.37 and 84.22.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by skyline-trader
CL - Daily / Weakening StructureCrude Oil has lost both Momentum and Trend. Now that the 75.62 has broken, the 72.08 to 66.60 Range is now Open to Trade. Price had broken Momentum and Trending Clouds with an outsized move Lower - Exceeding the 3%, 5% ranges. A 7 - 8% Drop can be Anticipated after the Retracement. OPEX Meetings - concluded without a great deal of Clarity as Russia held firm in Output - refusing to Budge and holding back Supply. The US is in no position to quickly Ramp Production and with clear Global contraction underway, there is no real need as Supply remains plentiful. The Accident waiting to happen... when Supply itself contracts and Regional Conflicts begin to Escalate.., These conflicts are arriving shortly and with it the Price of Oil will rise again dramatically. This is our preferred trade for outsized profits into 2022. Crude Oil will exceed its prior Highs @ 148.60 within 30 Months.
NYMEX:CL1!
by HK_L61
1
CL USOIL (WTI OIL) Possible Bullish BatCL USOIL (WTI Oil) is forming what it looks like a possible bullish bat formation. As more my liking, I do not like how high the C point is at however if the pattern is completed, the formation still valid. The price must test the zones after the 0.382 time zone in order for the pattern to be valid, if price does it before then a trade should not be considered. Just because the price is forming the structure does not mean that the price will reach such area but if it does, and if it is after the 0.382 time zone, then it will be wise to look at price action to see if it provides with a valid entry opportunity to enter a long trade. If it does not provide a confirmation then a trade should not be entered. Be patient, always wait for your trade set ups to be completed, wait for a confirmation, follow your rules!.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by UnknownUnicorn27418153
CL - Daily / Weakening StructureCrude Oil has declined ~$10 in a Choppy Down Trend. The ALGOs are experts at shaking the Trader's Intr-Day. The Pattern was interesting as AM Gaps were being Filled, until they were not, then the Decline began in earnest. ______________________________________________________ We have lower-Price Objectives from 67 to 73. A Contertrend move for 1 to 2 Days is Anticipated this week. ______________________________________________________ With China and the USA taking around releasing SPR reserves... Interesting times ahead. CL, NYSE COMP DOW the Leaders.
NYMEX:CL1!
by HK_L61
5
Watch the $DXY for $CL_F #Oil The recent move in the dollar has put a lot of pressure on oil recently...as it has been skidding around $80 the past few days. Yesterday's API report showed a small increase in oil inventories and the market is waiting for confirmation from EIA later today. It looks as though a confirmation has already been priced in and only an unexpected increase well above +600k barrels would shock the market to further downside in the short term. The structural market to watch is the dollar which has seen a 200 basis point move in a very short time frame. The DXY looks quite a bit extended. If we get a reversion to the mean in the dollar...oil should explode higher. Today we have quite a few Fed speakers and a 20 year bond auction which could move the dollar. So today may be a make or break day for oil.
ICEUS:DX1!
by cwmetz
CL - Glasgow Summit's Coal Boiler Room200 Nations struggles to find consensus, which is required. Kill Coal was on the Agenda. Meanwhile, the Co-Pilot in charge mused: "If you buy an Electric Vehicle you can Drive Across America on a Single Tank of Gas." ___________________________________________________ Crude OIl Inventories after five weeks of builds - show a draw... and are sold again. It either gets up off the dirt or begins to plunge to the 60s. ___________________________________________________ This week is pivotal.
NYMEX:CL1!
by HK_L61
expecting a breakout on USOIL.Now that we are back to about zero for our entry position and waited a deep pullback out. We did hedge some so made money's on dip and on rise back after. so overall money made, but entry position still at zero. Now we expect breakout. Price is getting squeezed in EMA's and horizontal resistant at 83. If 83 is broke, than should go to new high at 85.4 with take some profit at 83.4 which be strong supply zone. once past here than watch out for more upside and money. trade safe. spread kindness and love. Ms Bunny
NYMEX_MINI:QM1!Long
by UnknownUnicorn11430563
9
#OIL: Huge uptrend potential in oil hereI think we are ready for the next big rally in oil, this will cause a dramatic effect on inflation and affect earnings negatively going forward long term. I think it could reach as high as over $100 a barrel by mid August here. If so, the impact on the economy would be very large, with a delay of 6 months according to research by my mentor, @timwest With the Iran deal on the horizon, and the recent turn of events in the OPEC meeting, supply is going to be lower than demand and the US might be at risk of losing their energy independence that Trump had achieved during his tenure (also of note is the recent ESG activist shareholder movement, really concerning for the future of investment in increasing supply to meet demand from shale companies in the US). Consider the return to normal in air travel as a factor here as well, no one is really prepared for a move like this, and most media talking heads are repeating like parrots that inflation will be transitory, as if they were under the govt's payroll. Nasty turn of events indeed, but a good opportunity for those long value and commodities. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
8
Colgate: bullish divergence + 1st higher lowWeekly: Price has hit support for the second time and although the divergence is not pure, it is kind of a bullish divergence, on MACD-H and EFI. Stochastic RSI is coming from an oversold condition and shows some movement in a positive direction. Also, -2 ATR is has been the outer stretch mostly and could indeed pull up to value zone Daily: Ticker has made up a good upmove already, will check intraday to see if it would give a better entry. There is a bullish divergence on MACD-H and EFI, and a first higher low acter that. The impulse has changed to blue and price has upshot since the decline, ending in the lower area of the value zone. Stochastic RSI is also showing a bullish divergence as well as macd lines. %K just crossed the %D line. I expect it to move a a possible higher high, and at least reaching the previous high. Entry: Around 75.5 But I will check after market open if we could find a better intraday entry. I will enter after market open. Target 1: 76.9 Target 2: 77.95 Stop: 74.15 R/R: 1.3 - 1.8
NYSE:CLLong
by Tornado_Trading
CL -Trading Sir EarlAmazing how many traders venture into the Bahama Banks of Trading - Crude Oil Twice a day, the bellows of Open Outcry remnants begin. CL has always used the .55 and .85 as PIT PIVOTS. You can too. The Salient Point here is this... The 82.69 Pit Close is highly relevant in TREND... 8266 traded during the PIT this AM Session. It completed 2 Objectives: 1. The Gap Fill - the NEXT SELL 2. The Tag of the Prior Pit Pivot when which confirmed the TREND. It was missed by 3 Ticks, CONFIRMING Lower Price Objectives... ________________________________________________________ Trading Involves WORK, if you are immune to doing it, please don't ask me to explain. It demonstrates a clear lack of congruent traing behaviors and overall ignorance to what you are doing with your Capital. If you don't respect it... don't anticipate I will. Time, is never returned, don't waste it.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by HK_L61
4
What can we learn from the previous 2 Bull Runs on Crude Oil? Today, we will look at the weekly chart on Crude Oil, one of my favorite assets to trade due to the astonishing technical behavior, and how reliable it is when a trend is confirmed. First, we will analyze this from a technical perspective: - The price has broken a triangle pattern (ABCDE) - After reaching the first resistance zone, we saw a breakout of the zone. (which works as a long term confirmation of our bullish view) - Currently, the price is above the previous resistance zone (this is a relevant level to think in terms of corrections. Let see why in a second) - The next level on the Weekly chart as a major target is the next resistance zone at 110.00 What can we learn from the previous 2 bull runs? First Bull run: OCT 2001 - JUN 2008 / The main concept I want to show here is the middle correction between the two impulsive waves we can see on the chart. 182 correction (JUL 2006 - JAN 2007) Second Bull run: JAN 2009 - MAY 2011 / In this bull run, we also saw a clear middle correction from MAR 2010 to MAY 2010 before the beginning of the next bullish impulse Third Bull Run: APR 2020 - UNTIL present / Based on the previous situations, we can see that it is standard to observe a correction before the continuation of the bullish movement. Also, it's important to see that we are in the exact same zone where all these corrections happened in the past (around 78.00) Key Takeaway: The price tends to follow previous situations or structures. This is something you can see on any chart that you have enough historical data to see this concept. What I'm observing now is that Crude Oil has rallied since APR 2020 without making a significant correction. Based on the behavior of similar BullRuns on the past + The current level, I'm open to a corrective movement that may happen now or may happen after the price reaches 90.00 USD per barrel. I will develop bullish setups after that. At the moment, I'm not interested in opening new long positions. Also, consider that this may not happen. And in that case, I should develop a new filter according to the changing conditions. Thanks for reading!
TVC:USOIL
by ThinkingAntsOk
11