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Weekly Analysis 29th Nov - 4th Dec - horizon after Black FridayFriday's Black Friday introduced significant valuations also on the markets and we met with large anomalies also from the perspective of the Option flow, which we automatically analyze with our software. While we observe a strong directional movement already during the Globex session, it is not worth fighting the trend and it is much safer to try to join it wisely. Anyway, the Gamma Intraday strategy assumes that in the event of breaking the extreme level, we do not fight the trend but try to join the movement. Gamma -1 was broken in the markets during the Overnight / Globex session. From a medium-term perspective, it's worth going back to the Virgin VPOC levels to assess the potential for moves. The market will try to retest them, the only question is when it will happen. Let's look at the situation on the main instruments: DAX - a clear downward trend that was deepened during Friday's session. The price is close to the 14946 level, so it should be retested sooner rather than later. The remaining Virgin VPOC levels are above the current price, showing upside potential on the German index - starting at 15,909 with a potential to 16,158. S & P500 - Friday's panic on the American stock market may only be the beginning of the sell-off. It has been known for a long time that the FED has been pumping sky-high amounts of money for a long time, which causes continuous increases in the S & P500. From the Virgin VPOCs perspective, there is a lot of potential for declines through 4471.50, 4310.25 and ending at 4234.25. This does not negate long-term gains, but it is definitely worth keeping an eye on the downside opportunities. Gold - despite declines in the main stock exchange indices, we would expect gold to increase significantly in line with the inverse correlation. However, we saw a moderate drop in price on Friday's session and only the end showed the demand entry. Relatively close is the 1763 level, one of the Virgin VPOCs below the current gold price (at the time of writing). The growth potential of Gold looks much more interesting due to Virgin VPOC points at 1817.2 through 1863, 1875.7 with potential at 1885.2 Crude oil - a clear discount on "black gold" on Black Friday, which will surely please drivers at gas stations;) From the perspective of potential, there is a lot of room for growth, with the price reaching 81.37 and 84.22.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by skyline-trader
CL - Daily / Weakening StructureCrude Oil has lost both Momentum and Trend. Now that the 75.62 has broken, the 72.08 to 66.60 Range is now Open to Trade. Price had broken Momentum and Trending Clouds with an outsized move Lower - Exceeding the 3%, 5% ranges. A 7 - 8% Drop can be Anticipated after the Retracement. OPEX Meetings - concluded without a great deal of Clarity as Russia held firm in Output - refusing to Budge and holding back Supply. The US is in no position to quickly Ramp Production and with clear Global contraction underway, there is no real need as Supply remains plentiful. The Accident waiting to happen... when Supply itself contracts and Regional Conflicts begin to Escalate.., These conflicts are arriving shortly and with it the Price of Oil will rise again dramatically. This is our preferred trade for outsized profits into 2022. Crude Oil will exceed its prior Highs @ 148.60 within 30 Months.
NYMEX:CL1!
by HK_L61
1
CL USOIL (WTI OIL) Possible Bullish BatCL USOIL (WTI Oil) is forming what it looks like a possible bullish bat formation. As more my liking, I do not like how high the C point is at however if the pattern is completed, the formation still valid. The price must test the zones after the 0.382 time zone in order for the pattern to be valid, if price does it before then a trade should not be considered. Just because the price is forming the structure does not mean that the price will reach such area but if it does, and if it is after the 0.382 time zone, then it will be wise to look at price action to see if it provides with a valid entry opportunity to enter a long trade. If it does not provide a confirmation then a trade should not be entered. Be patient, always wait for your trade set ups to be completed, wait for a confirmation, follow your rules!.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by UnknownUnicorn27418153
CL - Daily / Weakening StructureCrude Oil has declined ~$10 in a Choppy Down Trend. The ALGOs are experts at shaking the Trader's Intr-Day. The Pattern was interesting as AM Gaps were being Filled, until they were not, then the Decline began in earnest. ______________________________________________________ We have lower-Price Objectives from 67 to 73. A Contertrend move for 1 to 2 Days is Anticipated this week. ______________________________________________________ With China and the USA taking around releasing SPR reserves... Interesting times ahead. CL, NYSE COMP DOW the Leaders.
NYMEX:CL1!
by HK_L61
5
Watch the $DXY for $CL_F #Oil The recent move in the dollar has put a lot of pressure on oil recently...as it has been skidding around $80 the past few days. Yesterday's API report showed a small increase in oil inventories and the market is waiting for confirmation from EIA later today. It looks as though a confirmation has already been priced in and only an unexpected increase well above +600k barrels would shock the market to further downside in the short term. The structural market to watch is the dollar which has seen a 200 basis point move in a very short time frame. The DXY looks quite a bit extended. If we get a reversion to the mean in the dollar...oil should explode higher. Today we have quite a few Fed speakers and a 20 year bond auction which could move the dollar. So today may be a make or break day for oil.
ICEUS:DX1!
by cwmetz
CL - Glasgow Summit's Coal Boiler Room200 Nations struggles to find consensus, which is required. Kill Coal was on the Agenda. Meanwhile, the Co-Pilot in charge mused: "If you buy an Electric Vehicle you can Drive Across America on a Single Tank of Gas." ___________________________________________________ Crude OIl Inventories after five weeks of builds - show a draw... and are sold again. It either gets up off the dirt or begins to plunge to the 60s. ___________________________________________________ This week is pivotal.
NYMEX:CL1!
by HK_L61
expecting a breakout on USOIL.Now that we are back to about zero for our entry position and waited a deep pullback out. We did hedge some so made money's on dip and on rise back after. so overall money made, but entry position still at zero. Now we expect breakout. Price is getting squeezed in EMA's and horizontal resistant at 83. If 83 is broke, than should go to new high at 85.4 with take some profit at 83.4 which be strong supply zone. once past here than watch out for more upside and money. trade safe. spread kindness and love. Ms Bunny
NYMEX_MINI:QM1!Long
by UnknownUnicorn11430563
9
#OIL: Huge uptrend potential in oil hereI think we are ready for the next big rally in oil, this will cause a dramatic effect on inflation and affect earnings negatively going forward long term. I think it could reach as high as over $100 a barrel by mid August here. If so, the impact on the economy would be very large, with a delay of 6 months according to research by my mentor, @timwest With the Iran deal on the horizon, and the recent turn of events in the OPEC meeting, supply is going to be lower than demand and the US might be at risk of losing their energy independence that Trump had achieved during his tenure (also of note is the recent ESG activist shareholder movement, really concerning for the future of investment in increasing supply to meet demand from shale companies in the US). Consider the return to normal in air travel as a factor here as well, no one is really prepared for a move like this, and most media talking heads are repeating like parrots that inflation will be transitory, as if they were under the govt's payroll. Nasty turn of events indeed, but a good opportunity for those long value and commodities. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
8
Colgate: bullish divergence + 1st higher lowWeekly: Price has hit support for the second time and although the divergence is not pure, it is kind of a bullish divergence, on MACD-H and EFI. Stochastic RSI is coming from an oversold condition and shows some movement in a positive direction. Also, -2 ATR is has been the outer stretch mostly and could indeed pull up to value zone Daily: Ticker has made up a good upmove already, will check intraday to see if it would give a better entry. There is a bullish divergence on MACD-H and EFI, and a first higher low acter that. The impulse has changed to blue and price has upshot since the decline, ending in the lower area of the value zone. Stochastic RSI is also showing a bullish divergence as well as macd lines. %K just crossed the %D line. I expect it to move a a possible higher high, and at least reaching the previous high. Entry: Around 75.5 But I will check after market open if we could find a better intraday entry. I will enter after market open. Target 1: 76.9 Target 2: 77.95 Stop: 74.15 R/R: 1.3 - 1.8
NYSE:CLLong
by Tornado_Trading
CL -Trading Sir EarlAmazing how many traders venture into the Bahama Banks of Trading - Crude Oil Twice a day, the bellows of Open Outcry remnants begin. CL has always used the .55 and .85 as PIT PIVOTS. You can too. The Salient Point here is this... The 82.69 Pit Close is highly relevant in TREND... 8266 traded during the PIT this AM Session. It completed 2 Objectives: 1. The Gap Fill - the NEXT SELL 2. The Tag of the Prior Pit Pivot when which confirmed the TREND. It was missed by 3 Ticks, CONFIRMING Lower Price Objectives... ________________________________________________________ Trading Involves WORK, if you are immune to doing it, please don't ask me to explain. It demonstrates a clear lack of congruent traing behaviors and overall ignorance to what you are doing with your Capital. If you don't respect it... don't anticipate I will. Time, is never returned, don't waste it.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by HK_L61
4
What can we learn from the previous 2 Bull Runs on Crude Oil? Today, we will look at the weekly chart on Crude Oil, one of my favorite assets to trade due to the astonishing technical behavior, and how reliable it is when a trend is confirmed. First, we will analyze this from a technical perspective: - The price has broken a triangle pattern (ABCDE) - After reaching the first resistance zone, we saw a breakout of the zone. (which works as a long term confirmation of our bullish view) - Currently, the price is above the previous resistance zone (this is a relevant level to think in terms of corrections. Let see why in a second) - The next level on the Weekly chart as a major target is the next resistance zone at 110.00 What can we learn from the previous 2 bull runs? First Bull run: OCT 2001 - JUN 2008 / The main concept I want to show here is the middle correction between the two impulsive waves we can see on the chart. 182 correction (JUL 2006 - JAN 2007) Second Bull run: JAN 2009 - MAY 2011 / In this bull run, we also saw a clear middle correction from MAR 2010 to MAY 2010 before the beginning of the next bullish impulse Third Bull Run: APR 2020 - UNTIL present / Based on the previous situations, we can see that it is standard to observe a correction before the continuation of the bullish movement. Also, it's important to see that we are in the exact same zone where all these corrections happened in the past (around 78.00) Key Takeaway: The price tends to follow previous situations or structures. This is something you can see on any chart that you have enough historical data to see this concept. What I'm observing now is that Crude Oil has rallied since APR 2020 without making a significant correction. Based on the behavior of similar BullRuns on the past + The current level, I'm open to a corrective movement that may happen now or may happen after the price reaches 90.00 USD per barrel. I will develop bullish setups after that. At the moment, I'm not interested in opening new long positions. Also, consider that this may not happen. And in that case, I should develop a new filter according to the changing conditions. Thanks for reading!
TVC:USOIL
by ThinkingAntsOk
11
CL - The Chase to 88 remains / Overextension aheadThe High to High Measured Move on the 4 Hr indicates it NEEDs to continue to move Vertical. CL adores Fridays... So do the Chasers in CL. It is a trade laden with Safety for some, they see it as a hedge, a necessity. They are not wrong, the break from 77 gave us a clear indication we would eventually Price Hunt 104 / 107 / 114 / 148 and far higher in time. We traded a small sell from 83.36 to the .764 @ 83.03, it was front-run and we flipped to Buy Side. STO 8336 - BTC 8312 BTO 8314 - STC 8356 The wild child is primed for FRYday.
NYMEX:CL1!
by HK_L61
7