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Oil Futures price divergence and convergencePrices of crude oil.
June and July contracts of 2020
June of 2021 and June 2022
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Litecoin Hinted at Bitcoin's Move Up, More to Come?Apologies for not posting yesterday. I was trapped with work and mentally drained from all the news coverage of our Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Honestly, it was a disappointment in terms of price action. For stock market bears, today there has been a lack of follow through to the down side. Yes, that should keep you up at night if you are short this market. The gold breakout was...meh. Oh and Bitcoin did what it does best and filled its ridiculous gap early this morning. Let's get into some charts. Today I'll focus on Litecoin, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, SPDR Gold Shares, and the United States Oil Fund.
Litecoin Warned Us and it Delivered
A few days ago I posted on how Litecoin was retesting support at 40 and may hint of a Bitcoin rally. I explained that it is informative to use other altcoin charts to gauge the future direction of Bitcoin. We reviewed Litecoin and it delivered. Bitcoin ripped from early week lows and has now filled the infamous 1200 point CME gap. Just ridiculous . However, the Litecoin price is lagging Bitcoin significantly (red flag). Below is the daily chart of Litecoin.
As you can see, Litecoin is rallying off the lows but the lack of follow through should be concerning. In the coming week or two there is also the risk of a Head and Shoulders reversal top forming. Could this reversal pattern provide us with another hint for Bitcoin?
Below is the daily chart of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). Notice the lack of follow through for the bulls on the daily candle close. I view this as a sign of exhaustion which could lead to consolidation or a reversal. GBTC will be an important chart to watch in the coming weeks.
For crypto in general, there are signs that are pointing to continued consolidation, with potential of further dips to as low as 6,000. In the meantime continue to BTFD and sell into rallies. Bias: Bearish .
Follow through ASAP
Maybe I am impatient, but gold needs to follow through asap! Below is the daily view of GLD.
What we see here is potentially the next steps to a all-time high test . Momentum is beginning to build as GLD is breaking out from a month long symmetrical triangle. Don't short here, the trend has been bullish and the with the current state of the global economy there may not be a safer place to stack your cash.
With that said, there are levels of support I would like GLD to hold. See below the 4-hour chart of GLD.
A break below 161 support and there is cause for concern. In the interim my bias remains.... Bias: Bullish .
Onto Black Gold
I haven't talked about any oil stocks on this channel yet so why not begin with USO. Below is the 4-hour chart of USO.
For the last 10 days USO has been in a sideways consolidation known as a rectangle . These types of formations often take form at the beginning of major trends. Last point on rectangle consolidations, is that they rarely have false breakouts outside of the rectangle. Whichever direction USO breaks will likely define the trend. Keep an eye on this chart as it could be a big winner heading into the summer. Short term, Bias: Bullish .
Tomorrow is the weekly close. In the morning I'll be reviewing Zoom and possibly Tesla. I hope you have a great evening!
OIL: At a decision point.To go higher, oil needs to keep gaining levels. Looking at the four hour, it looks like momentum to the upside has been slowing down, notice the smaller candle sizes.
If we don't make a higher-high, then we're probably going to go back and test support. And, I have a feeling that bid support lower is not that strong.
If oil prices turn south, then CAD/NOK/NZD/AUD will also go lower. (FX)
Let's wait for the correction / Crude Oil by ThinkingAntsOkUse this as a guide to develop your view of the situation:
Main ítems we can see on the 4hs Chart:
a) We have 2 descending trendlines, one has been broken, and the other one isn't
b) In general, after a structure is broken, we should expect a correction or a retest of that broken structure
c) In this case, we will wait for a correction with similar proportions to the two yellow lines we draw on the chart
d) If the Price makes something similar to that pattern (it can be a zig-zag / Flat / Irregular / Triangle) we Will be trading long towards the 2nd descending trendline
e) By the moment, this is just an analysis let us know what you think on the comments.
Crude Up in Morning US Trade Before Retracing as Optimism FadesHeadlines:
- Crude Higher in Morning US Session Before Retracing Back to $23 Handle as Optimism Begins to Fade
- Natural Gas Falls After Release of Storage Data Posting Build of 109bcf for Week
- US Stocks Push Higher with Energy and Financials Leading Whilst Futures in Asia Slightly Mixed Heading into End of Week
WTI OIL, Weekly - time for a reboundIn our previous analysis, we mentioned key levels near 161,8 Fibo expansion where also the target for a head and shoulders pattern has been set. Precisely in this chart, the price has bounced back near these levels fulfilling an Elliott wave impulse structure.
We may clearly see that the recent drop consists of five waves. As a consequence currently we could expect a rebound which should at least could consist of three waves labeled as abc.
The potential resistance for wave a is located at 29,14 USD. When it is finished the market could create another wave in corrective structure - wave b with potential support at 20 USD. After that, the market may create another upward wave - c.
________
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WTI Surges Above $25 Handle as Lockdowns Ease and Demand PicksupHeadlines:
- WTI Surges Pushing Above $25 Handle as Lockdowns Ease and Demand Begins to Pickup
- Markets in Asia Poised for Slightly Mixed Day Despite US Indexes Finishing Higher
- Energy Giant Shell Sells Appalachia Assets to National Fuel For $541 Million
Daily Review: Bitcoin (Yes BTFD)!!!You feeling it yet? The FOMO. Yup, that is exactly what's been happening today across U.S. equities and cryptocurrency. Ignited by Alphabet, Inc.'s stronger than expected earnings report, the market gapped up above the bearish daily close yesterday. Today, I was originally going to review Shopify, Amazon and Virgin Galactic, but last minute I decided to review the cryptocurrency space as my Elliott wave count has now shifted a bit. Now let's get into it Bitcoin .
More than a GAP?
As I was writing this post Bitcoin had just filled the CME Gap at around $9090. This may be significant a significant top. Since the CME opened its Bitcoin futures, the Gaps have for the most part been filled up. Now that it is filled, what can we expect going forward from the King of Crypto!
On the chart above you can see that Bitcoin is knocking right into resistance, a level in which served as the rejection that led to the strong sell off in March. Can Bitcoin continue beyond this point? Absolutely. However, the result could lead to a parabolic run up similar to June 2019. You remember what happened afterward right? The point I am trying to drive is DO NOT FOMO. Bitcoin will pull back at some point. The question is will you be buying?
From an Elliott wave perspective please view the chart below. I highlighted each correction. So far, highlighted in blue, between the December 2017 - December 2018 is a zig zag ABC correction (A). Currently, highlighted in grey (b) retraced nearly 90% of (a) and Bitcoin has reacted off the low impulsively. Conclusion: Bitcoin and the broad crypto space are beginning the (c) wave to complete the larger (B) wave. The targets are 90% of the larger (A). So targets are approaching $16,500 - nearly $20,000.
It isn't far fetched that Bitcoin return to $20,000. The bigger question is what happens afterward? If this is a large flat correction, Bitcoin could retrace all the way back down to $3,000 after $20,000. Wouldn't that be amazing? I wouldn't bet against it.
In the short term, Bitcoin is over extended and heading into the weekend I'd be expecting some shenanigans. Ultimately, I am a buyer on the dip, preferably a dip to the 0.618 fib of the completion of this move up. Bias: Bullish .
Finally a Bull Market?
MAYBE . Although, I am ready to say BTFD and HODL until approximately $16,500 - $20,000, I am not ready to say that this is the bull run everyone is anticipating. Remember, crypto is still very young and immature. There is a lot of hope riding on a bull run. Loads of people will begin clamoring that Bitcoin is digital gold... etc. What if we just treat Bitcoin and crypto in general as a tech. Similar to all those stock on the Nasdaq the cryptocurrency market has been a leader since the March low. In fact, I'd say the cryptocurrency market has never been so correlated to the stock market. It has nearly gone in lock step all month long.
As a final note, some cryptocurrencies I believe will outpace Bitcoin in USD gains are Ripple and Bitcoin Cash. These crypto's have very bullish set ups and I will share them on a later post!