oil, cl, day trading for Apr 2nd 2020the early session has been all long and is balancing near teh highs so will be watching for a test of the lower balance (Red low) for a continuation long or a break lower, So that lays out plan a and plan b.
Everything will depend on how we respond off the lows. and in the event we only test the high will look for break that retests for a long.
CL
cl, oil, day trading for Mar 31st 2020oil has been moving up but is now testing its entire current range and the bottom of this range is critical to the bull case for the day. W also could be expanding the chop zone to include yesterday and today, we will know this better by days end.
I will be looking for the long and short inside the red zone until the red zone is broke and at that point trading in the breaking direction trying to make the targets posted.
Why Crude oil will go to $ 20 per barrel (Cycles)All arguments are my subjective opinion
1. In such a large amount of oil is necessary to nobody. Supply exceeds demand
2.Transition to electricity
3. Shale oil - another attempt at manipulation
4.Saudi Aramco - largest capitalization company in the world (another bad call for me)
Many fundamental arguments can be made, but this is a virtual trading chart and it has little to do with the real world. it is a world of financial markets. There are few arguments from financial markets:
1. This is a futures oil chart. the largest players in futures oil Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, City Bank
2. All of the world's oil is traded exclusively for dollars. this is called petrodollar. there were a couple of people who wanted to change this system, but these people are already dead. Saddam Hussein, Muammar Gaddafi, Christophe de Margerie and possibly someone else.
therefore, oil is another instrument to strengthen the dollar. example for $ 100 now you can buy 2 barrels of oil and if the price is $ 20 you can buy 5 barrels of oil. The same story happened in 2014 when oil fell from $ 100 to $ 30. Saudi Arabia has been talking to the media for a year increasing oil production, as you understand Saudi Arabia does not participate in the pricing of oil prices, because we see a chart of futures oil on the market
All national currencies depreciated, and the dollar strengthened.
3. most likely these instrument will be used during the next fall of the US economy
4. We moving in downtrend channel
5. Cycles
Best Regards EXCAVO
oil, cl, day trading for Mar 30 2020The pre regular hours trading has oil seeing new lows however is forming a bottom heavy balance that looks to be pointing to lower levels. Upon RTH open can see oil bouncing up a little before dropping firmly into the teens. I will be ready for this bounce part to not happen additionally will remain leaning short if the Red zone top can not be moved past.
oil, cl, day trading for Mar 27th 2020The session started consolidated then broke to the down side and now looks like it wants to test the low of this current drop. there is a bottom test range of 20.80 and 21.70 that could cause oil to chop around before looks at lower levels. The red bottom could also act as some support. Will be leaning short but also will be ready to change long if we get back above the red zone top.
oil, cl, day trading for Mar 25th 20202Oil has been moving all over the place but has come right back to yesterdays trade range, So a balance inside a bigger balance. I will be looking for the first balance break (red zone) and then watch at the big balance area from a few days back for rejection or a confirmation of bigger picture direction.
Oil can remain in a small choppy range for some time but I think will have a big break out or down when it comes out of this balance.
Will be selective on my trades in this product right now.
cl, oil, day trading for mar 24th 2020Oil has moved up in early session and has now pull back to top of yesterday range, this is the spot i would look for a long if this market is going to move higher, the next long confirmation then is when we move above red top.
A move back into yesterday range I then can see oil moving back to the lows of yesterday and maybe further.
I personally find it hard to think oil will move up as long as OPEC is pumping as hard as they can.
cl, oil, day trading for Mar 23rd 2020Today we are again digesting some extraordinary moves and need to look at what is really happening. I am watching 20.50 as a very important lower level . I am not looking at targets today but more observation of what the activity of the day will be, the range is massive and there is plenty of room inside the range to have large trades so as long as inside this range no targets.
Everything has been very sold and a technical bounce could happen at any time
oil, cl, day trading for mqr 20th 2020We have dropped below normal red zone low and now the level to watch is the current low, this will be a important level to help find today's direction. I do not see ( unless news) a much higher move above the current highs. however can see a test of the lower balance point very easily.
Oil ranges have been very large and provide some good trades but also lots of risk if managed poorly.
oil, cl, day trading for Mar 19th 2020yesterday saw oil drop hard into new lower levels and now we are in a bottom of range balancing zone. If we stay in this range I think we break down for mid teens to what could be the bottom, however i am beginning to see a case for oil below $10.00 also.
A move above red zone could take us back to prior RTH session low and then see if bulls have any mojo left. This range is big so should be able to find action today.