CL
CL did not break 0.38 long term fib yetCL did not break 0.38 long term fib today and failed.
Expecting $52 or $49 for real bounce to $58-60 then down to final bottom.
Battleground area reached. Grind = continuation For a long you'll need 1) Violent Flush or 2) 24-48hrs of angle smoothening and base formation. No trade on any other option.
2nd chance entries (CL)Deeper look @ breakout setups.
Blindly selling Lows or buying Highs is a recipe for disaster in the long run.
But the right kind of buildup can legitimize a breakout (BO) entry. When a breakout failure (BOF) does NOT immediately make a strong move in the other direction, you've got to ask yourself -- has the power balance really shifted?
If not, it could just be another example of pressure building in the original BO direction.
** Also, take a look at the breakout entry at B (no buildup) vs D (buildup). Especially relevant for a coiling market like crude oil.
CL - WTI CRUDE OIL (QUANTUM FLUX FIELDS) Short term fields for WTI.
Look for a bottom near $59.80 - $58.90
Crude Oil ( CL Daily ) Is it consolidation time ?Ok, president Trup was looking for lower prices and there you go right in time ;)
Bears are under control no doubt about it but todays price action ( I would like to see daily close ) suggest we may see consolidation phase between 61,50/62,00 a 64,30/64,80
We are within 'no mans land" here imho and only breakout/down might give Us further direction.
I do expect bulls will try to take out top of the channel but it might not be enough.
USOIl short and only short1.There is no buyers.
2.Strong day down trend.
3. Volum on report hour is hige but price can't move hige.
Enter 66.05
SL 66.70
TP 63.00
CL Futures approaching areas of support - possible shortPersonal thoughts on the possible direction of the Dec 18 CL contract.
Is oil trying to form a bottomDespite all the geopolitical noise and the big build in oil inventory in this week report, WTI has failed to print a new low.
It's true that WTI has broken the upward channel on the weekly time frame which started from sub 42$ back on Jun 2017 as in the picture below. ideally a retest of the channel should happen to confirm the long-term reversal but I believe bulls are trying to go against all odds.
In short, a 1H candle closing above 68 is the 1st warning, as it would violate the midterm down slop in my chart and suggest the bull trend continuation
On higher time frames
USOIL: Correction in a monthly trendI'd reccomend to stand aside, or, look to trade the extremes of the range if you are adept at chop trading. In my case, I'm more of a trend trader, but could look to trade $PBR on dips to support and exit when valuation is stretched again, after an overbought rally...Or stocks like $OXY, or refineries, like $MPC, $PBF, etc.
If you expect oil to make a big move, you will get disappointed and probably buy into fake breakouts multiple times, to then get tempted to sell or flip short on fake break downs...The green vertical line on chart is the estimated time required to start a big monthly trend again. Until then, expect a volatile sideways range.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Crude Oil For a long time I didn't look at oil, but I see that we are approaching a strong resistance line that begins in 2008. I also saw an rising wedge - a reversal patterns. We will see this fall until April 2019. I do not know with what it will be fundamentally connected, I do not much look at the fundamental factors. But the fact that we will fall I'm sure. We are also near a very strong resistance level of 61.8%
USOIL short opportunityShort term period began.
Strong day resistence 75,49
We have potential mirror level 72,89
Enter 71,37
Stop 72,37
TP 69,20
USOIL short oportunityStrong sells still on chart USOIL
Back test of 68,30, from this point we will see strong sell again
Entry 68,33
SL 69,33
TP 66,14
Clear Channel BacktestWorking with channels to look at things, you can see that sharp movement on friday afternoon backtested the mini bear channel we were in, still have a second bear channel to pass thru.
Long Nasdaq and long CrudeNasdaq strong channel support, needs to hold here.
Oil on strong support as well.
Note how both candle bodies are large and far outside lower bollinger band on the 4 hour.
This implies by consequence that DXY or USD is about to tank.
CL breakdown continues powerfully, big Daily levels in sight nowUpdate to a previous post I made about the CL level breakdown.
Bias remains short until proven otherwise. Flat, no clear entries for me until tomorrow morning when we look at premarket price action and range.
Yesterday's trade posted to twitter. 11.25R despite mismanaging the hell out of it.
It's imperative you learn to take wholesale entries, understand context, and know when to pull the trigger and when to HAPPILY stand aside.
D1 bias, H1 setup, short term executionI'll post my Ninjatrader charts for trade entries. This is the kind of setup I want to wait for vs fighting the grind on NQ today.
I'm a momentum trader, and momentum comes from traps and/or tipping points. I don't want price to ever come back to my entry and I don't believe in wide stops.
Before taking entries, ask yourself about the market state. Is it grinding? If so, you're going to get killed with constant retests of your entries, general noise etc. What's the point getting into a position you think is going to be retested (I'm speaking as a daytrader, not a swing trader...).
If you're getting stuck overtrading, ask yourself this:
Do I really expect this trade to move to my target?
If there's a preceding trap AND contraction AND empty space ahead of you...that's where the money's made.
Bullish CL Crude Oil Swing TradeIn January of this year, a clear and well-respected swing zone began to form. The bottom of this zone held very strong support yesterday and today, and broke clean through the top of the zone today. I see a good entry in a potentially very high upside trade. There is a resistance zone from ~$70.80-71.80, so my soft target is right below that zone. However, I am not setting a limit order and will wait a day or two as we approach and react to that zone. I want to allow this trade to run and hopefully see new yearly highs.
Reversal daily candle in the resistance zone will be a signal to sell. RSI entering overbought will be one signal to sell.
Entry: $67.59
Stop (break of strong support zone): $65.30
Target (before next zone): $70.49
