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CL

CL - 4 hour / We warned yesterday - do not Trust the Operators. They Dinked the Chasers again. Time and again, Crude Oil dips into Highs prior to a large reversal. Oil touts were out in force all week with $100, $125, $150 and $300 Oil Targets. Never is this a Goo Sign. ______________________________________________ Oil Touts are the "Tom Lees" of Equities. 86.42 was beat by 68 Ticks @ 87.10 and the Reversal began in earnest. It is grossly overbought. The same "Investing" Group I've watched chase highs was up to the usual Buy the Highs fluffing only far louder this go around. CL is now front running it's .382. Energy began a downtrend with the Indices. Now OIL Will lead. The transports and Baltic Dry Index Ratio I provided analysis for the Iimplied Ratio... worked once again. The YEN Strenght Trade will also weigh on Crude OIl. Risk-off as the Global Economy folds up its Tent.
NYMEX:CL1!
by HK_L61
CL - Daily / 86.42 PO AchievedAPI and EIA Ahead the next 2 Days. Both will be suspect, as they should be. The CL Curve is interesting and deserves a review. __________________________________________ Overconfidence Hindsight Regret Avoidance All part of the Crude Oil Trade at present. How it shakes out will be extremely telling for Oil. ___________________________________________ China claims to have 5 years of Strategic Reserves and is now threatening to release them. OPEC is claiming Peak Oil again, to provide the counterweight. ____________________________________________ With important Data directly ahead, something is going to give.
NYMEX:CL1!
by HK_L61
CL - Daily / 86.42 Pivot / API TomorrowEIA Thursday - last week's report was negative for CL. No matter, with JPM calling for first $125 Crude then $100 Crude revied later... Its clear the Operators are having their way with Black Gold. it is approaching an Overbought condition, but that is becoming meaningless quickly as it can continue to expand for some time. The prior HIghs near this level tool 43 days to resolve, sounds like a great many sleepless nights. ________________________________________________ The Symmetry breaks @ 86.42. Extensions indicate 94.43 / 104/11 / 114/32 ________________________________________________ GAS PRICES IN CALIFORNIA HAVE NOT RISEN IN 2 MONTHS WHILE CRUSE HAS MOVED UP 23%. Makes perfect sense...
NYMEX:CL1!
by HK_L61
Crude Oil - Baltic Dry Index RatioThe Chart is extreme Price Ratio behavior within the WTIC to BDI Ratio. Extreme is relative to TIME, as the ROC is quite robust. And yet it remains at a mere fraction of its prior high @ 1.232. ______________________________________________________ Price is going to make a very large move in Crude Oil @ minimum $10 and perhaps far more. Recently we have seen this Ratio indicate the Sell at an extreme. _______________________________________________________ The UAE Droeb attack news on a Holiday did very little to move Price. However, events such as attacks upon Oil Fields tend towards moving Price up $10 in hours as it did last time. ________________________________________________________ There is an opportunity for those with a strong stomach.
NYMEX:CL1!
by HK_L61
1
CL - Weekly / Pivotal Momentum ApproachingCrude Oil is extremely interesting at present. $84 is the Level we are watching closely, not the Highs @ 85.41 as they will be important later this week. This is a No Man's Land Trade at this Time. _________________________________________________________ We anticipate a significant change of $10 on either side of $84. To complicate matters is the Extension to $104 and then $112 should CL holds the $84s for another two weeks. There are a number of Indicators that will follow on to indicate the potential outcomes. The Baltic Dry Index to Crude Oil Ratio is an important one with a prior leading Indications of Corrections and how they manifest themselves. ___________________________________________________________ Of late JOM has been out forecasting the $100 to $1125 Level this year. Higher forecasts border on $200. Retail is very much all in for Higher. We hold NO Positions presently - instead of choosing to watch which way this will Break, $74 OR $94. Weekly Cloud Momentum Support is @ $74. Open interest for March is biased to the Calls, with a widespread. Institutions are not frankly engaged, as the Green Agenda is keeping them away from "Dirty" Investments, or so it is claimed. $ is their driving factor, regardless of Public expression(S).
NYMEX:CL1!
by HK_L61
CL - 4 hour / Gap FilledCrude Oil will provide the Leading Indication for a Reversal into the 3/5 for the Indices. The DX has been wandering in the Desert @ 96. All eyes have been on the Breakup and out to 98, it has yet to materialize and with Rates pulling back, we will see quite clearly where the Operators have designs on Price. ____________________________________________________________ EIA has shown Crude Draws with odd movements in RBOB / RB. Energy has been a Pillar of the safety Trade since December into January. We see the potential for a reversal setting up nearer term. Perhaps it will be the Instrument that provides leadership. It's either down to 61 or up to 88 and then potentially 104. Tik Tok.
NYMEX:CL1!
by HK_L61
CL - 15 Minute MicroCrude Oil has an expanded range from 78.36 to 80.48. Sellers have been roundly pushed back as CL would simply collect the energy and grind higher. API Today and EIA T0morrow will provide direction, the Gap remains overhead and should be filled. Rates have had a mild impact on CL, as has the DX. ___________________________________________________ We currently hold no positions and are awaiting the next break of 80 or support to trade to consider a Position. The Weekly and Monthly ranges are quite large and have us squarely on the sidelines while the Indices are providing greater Velocity Intra-Day. Should TNX backtest the breakout, we will be closely watching the reaction within Energy. NG came up nicely off its 3.50/3.70 range to move back over $4. RBOB remains in a larger Range and is becoming a leader in the Energy Complex into March as reformulations begin to gain momentum.
NYMEX:CL1!
by HK_L61
USO, 10 Jan. Is the Oil price about to crash?Oil has completed a 5-wave move on 25 Oct. Oscillators and geometry suggest a decline. Geometry: Price got rejected at the lower boundary of the channel. The red trend line is a second resistance, connecting the previous low and the gap. Elliott: We can count an ABC (in green), which makes up corrective wave (b), in blue. If correct, we can expect a wave C to the downside. Oscillators: The RSI shows a strong bearish divergence. The MFI points downwards. Stochastic is overbought and due to retrace. Correlation: USO is -.74 inversely correlated with TLT, at support, and .71 with XLE, at resistance. How to trade it: The idea is to build short exposure between 57 and 60. The red and blue trend lines give us two excellent risk-reward ratios. If price continues towards 60 it is likely to form an expanding flat correction. The idea is invalidated if USO establishes support above 56.
AMEX:USOShort
by UnknownUnicorn12250317
CL - Crude Oil persists in Grinding Up SellersOur Price Objectives complete the Gap FIll. This has been a one-way Trade - Higher. Sellers have been rejected on every Pullback only to see Price move slowly, methodically... higher. API / EIA / RIGS / OPEC has backstopped Crude Oil. ____________________________________________ FAding the Trend has been a ticket to larger losses as Sellers on the Tape continues to double down against the Trend on this move higher. Adding Fuel to the fire that is energy at present. It will be interesting to see IF this can run to 104. We are very much in doubt of this, but anything is frankly possible should Price grind to new highs above the 88.21 Level.
NYMEX:CL1!
by HK_L61
CL - Into the Gap Fill81.12 to 83.32 are not open for the Fill and Overthrow. There is plenty of Oil regardless of API / EIA Non0-sense. Hookahs are having a party at Virtual Davos this Year. Bless them, them as the Sultan is worth $2.1 Trillion, makes Gates, Buffet, Besos, and Elon look like Pikers. _____________________________________________________ NQ will be in trade on NPK for Spring Argo-Biz and reformulations. CL usually peaks this time of YEar with Nasty January / February effect now in trade due to December effect push forward. All in all it's broken the Channel we indicated would be important for the toss over, mission accomplished. It's been giving SELLERs Hell on a pitchfork, why then keep coming back is beyond me, but we will gladly pick their pockets,
NYMEX:CL1!
by HK_L61
2
CL - The Gapit appears OPEC is providing the nudge for Crude Oil. Gasoline demand certainly is NOT. _________________________________________________ Macro factors will catch up with it soon enough, overall we remain in wait and see mode for CL. No positions simply Sell on PO's hit - today Sold 78.44 PO and closed at 77.93 It is hanging on to the 50 SMA @ 75.96 for now, the 200SMA is below @ 70.92. MACD is diverging while A/D is sharply Positive. Appears to be another Squeeze, an unrelenting one.
NYMEX:CL1!
by HK_L61
1
CL - The Channel TradeCL respects its channel, pure and simple. With 77 acting as the pivot, overthrows are normal as are overshooting past PO's on the lower range. Regardless, the 15 Micro Channel trades like clockwork. It's easy Bank. APT Tomorrow, EIA Wednesday head of FOMC - large Break of the range ahead after the FED with the DX leading. The Hookahs don't know whether to curse or bless Black Gold. _______________________________________ Hopefully, a Solid and substantial break mid-week.
NYMEX:CL1!
by HK_L61