Tariffs, Trade Deals, & Central Bank Watch: Key Week in MarketsCME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:MNQ1! COMEX:GC1! CME_MINI:MES1! NYMEX:CL1!
This is a significant week in terms of macroeconomic headlines, key data releases, central bank decisions, and major trade policy developments. We get numbers for growth, inflation and decision and insights into monetary policy. Combining this with ongoing trade policy developments, we have a key week which may shape how the rest of the year unfolds.
Below is a consolidated summary of the latest trade negotiations, scheduled economic releases, and policy outlooks.
US - EU Trade Deal:
• US–EU Tariffs: The US will impose a 15% tariff on most EU goods, including cars, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, but retain a 50% tariff on steel and aluminium with a new quota system.
• Exemptions: Zero-for-zero tariffs agreed for agriculture, aircraft parts, and chemicals; aircraft exports are temporarily exempt.
• EU Commitments: The EU will invest $600 billion in the US and purchase $750 billion in US energy, mainly LNG.
• Agriculture: The EU will lower tariffs on many US agricultural goods, though not comprehensively.
• Political Reactions: EU leaders are mixed, Germany and the Netherlands praised the deal, France called it unbalanced, and Hungary viewed it unfavorably.
• The deal is not final until it is ratified by all EU national parliaments and the EU Parliament.
China Talks: US and China expected to extend their trade truce by 90 days. US-China meeting expected in Stockholm on Monday and Tuesday. Trump to freeze export controls to secure a deal. A group of US executives will visit China for trade discussions, organized by the US-China Business Council.
South Korea Trade Talks: Korea proposes a shipbuilding partnership with the US and is preparing a trade package.
UK–US Relations: PM Starmer and Trump to meet in Scotland to discuss the UK–US trade deal implementation, Middle East ceasefire, and pressure on Russia.
Thus far, the US has announced trade deals with the UK, Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia, Japan and The EU. Trade delegations are working to finalize deals with China, Mexico, Canada
Key Economic Data Releases:
Monday: Treasury refunding financing estimates.
Supply: 2-Year and 5-Year Note Auction, 3 & 6-Month Bill Auction
Tuesday: US Advance Goods Trade Balance, Wholesale Inventories Advance, CB Consumer Confidence, JOLTS Job Opening (Jun), Atlanta Fed GDPNow, Australian CPI Q2
Supply: 7-Year Note Auction
Wednesday: German GDP Q2, EUR GDP Q2, US ADP Non-farm Employment, US GDP Q2, Crude Oil Inventories, Chinese Manufacturing PMI
Canada: BoC Interest Rate Decision, Rate Statement, Monterey Policy Report, BoC Press Conference
US: Fed Interest Rate Decision,FOMC Statement, Fed Press Conference.
Japan: BoJ Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement
Thursday: EU Unemployment (Jun), US PCE & Core PCE Price Index (Jun)
Japan: BoJ Press Conference
Friday: EU CPI, US NFP, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Michigan 1-Year & 5-Year Inflation Expectations.
It is also a busy earnings week. See here for a complete earnings schedule .
Markets are interpreting trade deals as positive news thus far. The dollar is strengthening.
As we previously mentioned, we anticipate no rate cuts this year as economic data proves to be resilient and inflation largely under control. WSJ also posted an article stating that most tariffs costs are being absorbed by companies due to weaker pricing power. We previously wrote about this on our blog: “ In our analysis, the inflation impact of tariffs may not show up until Q4 2025 or early 2026, as tariff threats are mostly used as a lever to negotiate deals. While effective tariff rates have increased, as Trump reshapes how tariffs are viewed, cost pass-through to consumers will be limited in Q3 2025, as companies’ front-loaded inventory helps mitigate the risks of increased tariff exposure.
So, what we have is an interesting development shaping up where, while inflation may rise and remain sticky, it is yet to be seen whether slowing consumer spending will weaken enough to the point where companies must start offering discounts, which would nullify the tariff risk to the end consumer and result in companies absorbing all tariffs. This scenario will see reduced earnings margins leading into the last quarter and early 2026. However, it will materially reduce risks of higher inflation.”
In our view, the US dollar has a higher probability to rally in the short-term i.e., Q3 as markets re-align FX rate differentials. Bond yields stabilize, Equities continue pushing higher, while Gold retraces as previously mentioned. This in our view, is what investors and participants refer to as the Goldilocks scenario. If this plays out as expected we anticipate continued strength with AI, tech, energy and defense sectors outperforming into mid- 2026.
Institutional View: Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley also sees no rate cuts in 2025, despite market pricing for two 25 bps cuts. They forecast more aggressive cuts in 2026 due to:
• Tariff-related inflation emerging before labor market deterioration
• Slowing US growth, as fiscal support fades
• Impact of tighter immigration policy and global trade realignment
That said, MS continues to cite longer-term risks to the dollar, including:
• Twin deficits (fiscal + current account)
• Ongoing debate around USD’s safe haven status
• USD hedging activity picking up by international investors
• Strained credibility of the Fed due to tension between Fed Chair and the US Administration
How Fed policy evolves in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 will depend heavily on the incoming Fed Chair nominee, who is expected to replace Jerome Powell in May 2026. This nomination could significantly influence future policy direction around growth and inflation targets.
Crude Oil Futures WTI (CL1!)
USOIL Robbery Alert! Smart Entry Plan Below Key MA Level🔐💥 “WTI Energy Heist: Thief Trader’s Bearish Master Plan” 💥🔐
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🔑 ENTRY:
"Wait for the Neutral Moving Average to Break — Then Make Your Move!"
🎯 Focus zone: 64.50
☠️ Wait for the breakout – do NOT enter before it happens.
✅ Use sell stop orders above the MA line or place sell limit orders on the pullback after the breakout (target within the 15–30 min candle near swing high/low).
🧠 Thief Tip: Layer in entries using the DCA (layered attack strategy) to catch price on its way down. Set a chart alert so you don’t miss the strike moment.
🛑 STOP LOSS:
"Set it smart or don’t set it at all — you choose the fire you want to play with!"
📍 SL only gets placed AFTER breakout.
🎯 Recommended SL at 66.00 on the 4H swing level.
☠️ DO NOT place any orders or SL before confirmation breakout.
📊 Your SL depends on your risk %, lot size, and number of entries stacked.
🎯 TARGET ZONE: 62.50
💸 Lock profits before the bulls wake up. This level is based on market exhaustion zones and historical bounce areas.
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This isn’t just a chart move — it’s backed by full-scale robbery research:
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📉 Supply-Demand Dynamics
📚 Before pulling the trigger, educate yourself with the fundamentals. Dive into COT, Seasonal, and Macro reports. Don’t rob blindly — rob smart.
⚠️ Risk Management Alert:
Major news releases? Step back.
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WTI OIL Extreme 1D MA50-200 squeeze to deliver break-out!WTI Oil (USOIL) has been consolidating for almost the past 30 days within the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The squeeze is now so tight that the trend will be revealed soon with a break-out.
Based on the 2-year Channel Down, that should be bearish, resembling the May 2024 consolidation that broke downwards and almost hit the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. Notice also the similar Sell Zone rejection on the 1W RSI.
As a result, we expect WTI to decline and target $61.00.
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Crude Oil- Bull Flag formation Trade PlanNYMEX:CL1! NYMEX:MCL1!
Big Picture:
Let the price action and market auction be your guide
What has the market done?
The market has consolidated and pushed higher. There is an excess high at 67.87 from July 14th RTH. Market pushed lower, leaving behind excess with single prints above this showcasing strong area of resistance.
What is it trying to do?
The market is accepting prices in this range and building value. It has been in price discovery mode with a multi-distribution profile since June 24th.
How good of a job is it doing?
The market is currently forming a bull flag formation and attempting to push higher on the hourly time-frame.
What is more likely to happen from here?
Key Levels:
Neutral Zone 1: 67.16-67
Neutral Zone 2 : 66.45-66.30
Yearly Open: 66.34
Neutral zone 3 : 65.23-65.03
2025- Mid Range : 64.14
Scenario 1: False break, pull back and push higher
In this scenario, we expect prices to attempt to break bull flag formation, fail, however, neutral zone 3, acts as support for buyers to step back in to push prices towards yearly open and neutral zone 2.
Scenario 2: Break but fail to sustain push higher
In this scenario, we expect prices to break out of bull flag formation, however, fail around the 66 zone. Price reverts lower towards neutral zone 3 to further consolidate.
WTI OIL Is it forming a bottom?WTI Oil (USOIL) Has been trading within a Rising Wedge pattern and since June 02, it has turned its 1D MA50 as a Support. Technically the recent 2-week consolidation within the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) is a bottom formation on the Higher Lows trend-line of the Rising Wedge.
As long as the 1D MA50 holds, we remain bullish, targeting $80.00 (Resistance 1). If the 1D MA50 breaks (closes a 1D candle below it), we will take the loss, and turn bearish instead, targeting $60.05 (Support 1).
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Market Watch UPDATES! Stock Indices, Gold, Silver, US OILWelcome to the Market Watch Updates for Monday, July 14th.
In this video, we will give the forecast updates for the following markets:
S&P500, NASDAQ, DOW JONES, GOLD, SILVER and US OIL.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
WTI Crude Oil Reverses Lower Near $70 ResistanceA bearish engulfing candle has formed on the daily WTI crude oil chart, with its high perfectly respecting the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement just beneath the $70 handle. Given that the bounce from the June low has been relatively weak compared to the sharp decline from $78, I’m now on alert for a potential break beneath the $64 support level.
That said, the 200-day SMA and EMA currently sit between $65.21 and $65.31, which could offer near-term support. Should oil prices attempt to grind higher within the 1-hour bullish channel, bears may look to fade rallies into the weekly pivot (67.59) or the $68.00 handle, positioning for a potential rollover. A clean break below the 200-day averages would shift focus firmly back to $64, near the June low.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
CL1! Short Setup – Fading Into Volume Shelf📉 CL1! Short Setup – Fading Into Volume Shelf
🔹 Context:
Price just tapped into a heavy upper volume shelf (68.35–68.50) — the exact area where the prior breakdown started. This zone aligns with rejection highs and the upper edge of the VRVP profile.
📌 Setup Logic:
🔺 Entry: 68.36–68.50 (into supply zone)
⛔ Stop: 68.75 (above liquidity peak)
🎯 Target: 66.78 (prior demand + volume node)
📐 RRR: ~4.0:1
⚠️ Trigger: Do not enter early — wait for rollover of price which it looks like we are getting now.
📊 Why It Matters:
📈 VRVP shows clear upper and lower volume shelves
📛 Price has overextended into a prior rejection zone
🔁 Potential for a mean-reversion leg once we confirm momentum breakdown
📷 See attached chart for full zone layout
🧠 Let me know if you’re entering or watching this one 👇
#CrudeOil #CL1 #FuturesTrading #VolumeProfile #SciQua #OrderFlow
Crude Oil Trade Idea: Intraday mechanicsNYMEX:CL1! NYMEX:MCL1!
Bigger Picture:
Traders should note that news headlines do not always drive the price action. More often, news outlets look for narrative to align with the price action.
Previously, it was about the supply glut and worsening demand due to an uncertain outlook. Now the latest news flow is about Aramco OSP rising, OPEC+ adding another 548K bpd in August — higher than anticipated 411K — of the wounding of involuntary cuts. News outlets now view this as signs of demand growth and low inventories.
What has the market done?
Market has consolidated, building acceptance around microComposite Volume Point of Control at 65.50 (mcVPOC). Market then broke out of this balance.
What is it trying to do?
Market is building value higher; 2-day mcVPOC is at 68.29.
How good of a job is it doing?
Market is holding support and has tested resistance multiple times. It has also held support.
What is more likely to happen from here?
Further movement higher as long as it holds above support and yearly open confluence in the short term.
Key Levels:
• Resistance zone: 68.95 - 68.85
• pHi: 68.87
• 2-day VPOC: 68.29
• pSettlement: 68.38
• yOpen: 67.65
• Support zone: 67.70 - 67.50
• pLow: 67.89
Primary Scenario:
Crude oil pit session begins with open auction in yesterday’s range. Prices move lower to test prior day's low, 2-day balance support in confluence with yearly open. Prices push back higher towards yesterday's settlement and 2-day Volume Point of Control (VPOC) at 68.33.
Secondary Scenario:
Crude oil pit session begins with open auction in yesterday’s range. Market consolidates and chops around pSettlement and 2-day VPOC. Market takes out overnight high, fails to go further higher, and reverts lower. Settles below overnight low, however staying above prior low to continue one-time framing higher for the regular trading hours (RTH).
WTI OIL Best scalping opportunity at the moment!WTI Oil (USOIL) has been consolidating inside a ranged trading set-up, with the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) as its Resistance and the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) as its Support.
We saw this previously from May 13 to June 01 and it presents the best scaling opportunity in the market at the moment. That previous Ranged Trading pattern eventually broke upwards as the Higher Lows trend-line held.
As a result, after you get your scalping profits within this range, look for a clear break-out above the 4H MA100 (candle closing) in order to go long (Resistance 1) or a break-out below the Higher Lows (candle closing) in order to go short (Support 1).
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Crude oil $ukoil - Final falling oil has been a barometer of the financial market for the last decades.
I look at the formations and I see that we will see a renewal of the bottom in the coming months, I will not say the reasons, you just need to wait a little.
I've been talking about the fall for a long time, but it's not over yet.
After the final fall, I expect a renewal of the highs, due to the worsening situation in the Middle East, this will be after September
Best Regards EXCAVO
July 7 - 11: Buy Stock Indices DIPs! Watch For Gold, Oil FVGs!In this Weekly Market Forecast, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, DOW JONES, Gold and Silver futures, for the week of July 7 - 11th.
Stock Indices are strong, so dip opportunities should present themselves next week.
Gold is bullish-neutral. Could see strength enter this market as July 9th approaches.
Silver is bullish. No reason to short it.
Oil is in a Monthly +FVG. If the FVG fails, it will confirm bearishness. Couple that with the fundamentals, I am watching for that confirmations to sell US Oil.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
WTI OIL This is the only Support right now.WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) is so far holding its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), the natural medium-term Support, following a quick price deflation after the Israel - Iran de-escalation.
In our opinion, the trend-line that currently matters most though, is the Higher Lows coming straight from the May 05 Low. If broken, we expect a quick test of the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, as it resembles the December 2023 - May 2024 Higher Lows trend-line.
Even the 1W RSI is similar among the two fractals, and it has to be said that both are part of the 2-year Channel Down pattern.
So if the Higher Lows trend-line breaks, we can target $61.00.
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Crude Oil Weekly OutlookNYMEX:CL1! NYMEX:MCL1!
With Nasdaq futures hitting all-time highs, our attention now turns to Crude Oil, which has seen a sharp pullback over the past week.
All-time highs in equity indices present a unique challenge:
There are no historical reference points—no prior price or volume data to lean against. Traders typically turn to tools like Fibonacci extensions, measured moves, or rely on market-generated information and emerging intraday levels before making decisions.
What Has the Market Done?
Crude Oil Futures (CL) posted a record drop last week, falling sharply from a Sunday open high of $78.40 to a Monday close low of $64.38—a $14.02 decline.
This sharp sell-off followed developments suggesting a potential Iran–Israel ceasefire and the end of a two-week conflict, prompting markets to rapidly unwind the geopolitical risk premium.
What is it trying to do?
CL Futures have since consolidated around the 2025 mid-range. The market appears to be in a balancing phase, digesting the removal of war-related premiums and recalibrating based on fundamentals.
How Good of a Job Is It Doing?
Having effectively priced out war risk, the market is now refocusing on fundamentals.
The global demand outlook is improving, driven in part by progress in trade deals.
OPEC’s June Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) forecasts global oil demand growth of 1.3 mb/d for 2025.
This transition from headline risk to fundamental drivers indicates market maturity and resilience, albeit within a still-volatile regime.
What Is More Likely to Happen From Here?
Today marks the final trading day of the month, and seasonal demand will become increasingly relevant.
Summer weather and travel activity are expected to drive demand for jet fuel and gasoline.
These seasonal tailwinds, if sustained, could help stabilize price action around key technical zones.
Key Levels:
yOpen: 67.65
pHi: 66.09
pIB Hi: 66
2025 mid-range: 65.39
pLow: 64.80
Overnight Low: 64.55
Naked VPOC: 64.50
Scenario 1: Continued Consolidation (Balance Holds)
Crude oil maintains range-bound behavior.
Strategy: “Outside-in” trading—fade moves at range extremes until new directional information emerges.
Scenario 2: Break from Balance
If directional conviction builds, price could break the current consolidation.
Upside target: Yearly open near $67.65.
Downside risk: March 2025 low if $64.40 fails.
All intraday levels noted above should be monitored for structure and participation.
WTI OIL Progressively bearish on the long-term. Eyes $52.50.A week has passed since our sell signal on WTI Oil (USOIL) and the emerging geopolitical stability has already helped the price move much faster towards our $58.20 Target (see chart in related ideas below).
If we look at it from an even longer term perspective, the 1W time-frame in particular, we can see draw some very useful conclusions about the bearish case. First of all that this week's High got rejected exactly on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which is the trend-line that made the last 3 major rejections on the market (January 13 2025, October 07 2024).
As you can see, that was a textbook Double Top formation. The last Double Top rejection took place on June 06 2022, the previous multi-year Top for the market. The result was a continued sell-off that didn't stop before testing the 1W MA200, which is now the Resistance.
As a result, even though our $58.20 Target stands, on the longer term we can even see a -37.36% decline towards the end of the year. Contact with the bottom of the Channel Down can be made at $52.50.
Alternatively, you can look at the 1W RSI, which has a clear Sell and clear Buy Zone. This week it was rejected on the Sell Zone, so you may look to book your profit as soon as it enters the Buy Zone.
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WTI CRUDE OIL: Massive 4H MA50 bearish breakout.WTI Crude Oil has turned neutral again on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 48.933, MACD = 2.900, ADX = 47.682) as it just broke with force under the 4H MA50. Every time this has taken place in the recent past, a strong downtrend followed. The last such selling sequence dropped by -23.71%. The 4H RSI is on the exact same spot as then. We are bearish, TP = 59.00.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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What Is the Base Price or Long-term Support for Crude Oil?What is the base price for oil? Specifically, today we will discuss crude oil, and we can apply this understanding to other commodities as well.
I won't go into too much technical detail about the difference between the base price and the cost price for crude oil, but for most people, it helps to see the title as “Is there a bottom-line price or support level for crude oil?”
My answer is yes, and this is due to inflation. Over time, we tend to pay higher prices for food, gas and many others that we consume.
The cost of goods varies between producers and merchants, and then from merchants to end consumers. However, it all starts with the producer. Before a producer acquires oil for refining, they reference crude oil prices as a benchmark to decide whether to make a purchase or hold back.
So, “Is there a bottom-line price or support level for crude oil?”
As we can see from the yearly chart, in every few years the base price of crude oil keeps adjusting higher; in levels and stages.
There is also this parallel channel formed by joining across its troughs and mirror it to its prominent resistance, we can observe crude oil prices range bound between this broad uptrend over time.
We can try to apply this analysis to other commodities; we will find a similar broad uptrend across most of them. But why? Because of inflation.
Regarding the bottom-line support for crude oil, we observed that it was at $10 from the 1980s until the turn of the millennium. Over time, accounting for inflation, this support level shifted upward to around $30 from the early 2000s until 2020, the year of COVID-19. And now we can see there is a new support at $60 since the start of 2020.
How to explain this break below $30 base price and went to -$40?
In technical analysis, this break is considered a false break, because, at the close of that year, on this yearly chart, prices settled above the support line at $30.
The story behind this is that when COVID hit, airlines were grounded, leading to storage issues for large quantities of oil. It cost more to store the oil than its selling price, which caused prices to drop below zero, reaching as low as -$40. But prices ultimately found its equilibrium and settle at a fair value at $48 that year.
Where is the support for crude oil, and what is its current direction?
This was a video analysis on Sep 2024, in this weekly chart, we can see a wedge pattern. Then I believe if the price breaks above this downtrend line, it suggests that we may see higher crude oil prices. And this analysis is taking shape today.
We can see prices initially broke above this trendline, but shortly sink below and broke this support line at $66 to $55. And today we are at $73 after the renewal of the Middle East tension.
How should I interpret the move to the recent low around $55?
I would encourage to always discover the development with different time frame as time progress.
Switching to the yearly chart, we observed that crude oil is still supported above $60 that year.
Please also make a point to adjust this downtrend line from time to time as market dynamic changes.
Watch the full video:
WTI Crude Oil Futures & Options
Ticker: MCL
Minimum fluctuation:
0.01 per barrel = $1.00
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
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Weekly Market Forecast: Wait To Buy S&P, NAS, & OIL!In this Weekly Market Forecast, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, DOW JONES, Gold and Silver futures, for the week of June 22-28th.
The tensions in the Middle East take center stage, as Iran has signaled they are willing to discuss limitations on there Uranium enrichment program. This could allow outflows from safe havens and inflows to risk assets.
Keep and eye on Silver for shorts, in the near term, though.
Let's see if the market tilts its hand early next week. Monday should bring clarity.
Wait for confirmations before entering trades. A break of structure would be ideal! Enter on the pullback to that structure point.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
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