Crude Oil (WTI): Bullish Outlook Explained 🛢️
WTI Crude Oil is very bullish since the end of June.
The market even managed to break and close above a key horizontal resistance on a daily.
The broken structure turned into support now.
That constitutes a safe zone to buy from.
I believe that probabilities will be high that the market will keep growing.
Next resistance is 74.7
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Crude Oil Futures WTI (CL1!)
Bottom For oil was May 2023. Oil prices are prepared for strong growth to the upside. NYMEX:CL1! made its bottom in May of 2023.
Three reasons for this case to be made.
Russia cutting OPEC+ production by 500,000. The original balance from OEPC+ was 450,000 barrels of surplus. No Suprise that they cut it by exactly 500,000.
U.S. Now focused on SPR replenishing as opposed to releases.
Strong GDP solidifies no recession, and high employment solidifies strength in the consumer.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 7/10/23A two-sided framework continues through summer between 62.14 long-term support, and 81.97 long-term resistance, both regions able to contain seasonal activity.
Downside, a weekly settlement below 62.14 indicates 53.87 within several months, longer term Fibonacci support able to contain selling into later year.
Upside, a weekly settlement above 81.97 indicates 94.67 within several months, able to contain annual highs.
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For Monday, 72.82 can contain selling into later week, above which the 77.34 formation is likely by the end of next week or sooner, able to contain weekly buying pressures when tested, possibly through the balance of July.
A daily settlement above 77.34 indicates the more significant 81.97 long-term resistance level within 1 - 2 more weeks, where the broader market can top out through the balance of the year and a significant upside continuation point into later year.
Downside Monday, closing below 72.82 signals 69.35 within several days, possibly another test of 67.08 by the end of next week, able to contain selling through next week and above which 77.34 is attainable over the next 3 - 5 weeks.
Crude Oil (WTI): Breakout & Bullish Continuation 🛢️
WTI Crude Oil was trading within a horizontal trading range since the beginning of June.
Its resistance was finally broke yesterday.
It is a very important sign of strength of the buyers.
The market will most likely keep growing 75.75 level - next key resistance.
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WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 7/7/23For Friday, 69.45 can contain session weakness, above which 72.81 remains a 2 - 3 day target able to contain buying into later next week, and the point to settle above for yielding the more meaningful 77.27 within 1 - 2 more weeks.
Downside Friday, closing below 69.45 signals another test of 67.08 within several days, able to contain selling through next week and above which 77.27 is attainable over the next 3 - 5 weeks.
On the other hand, a daily settlement below 67.08 indicates 62.14 longer-term support within 2 - 3 weeks, where the broader market can bottom out through summer activity.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 7/6/23For Thursday, 69.55 can contain session weakness, above which 72.80 remains a 2 - 3 day target able to contain buying into later week, and the point to settle above for yielding the more meaningful 77.20 within 1 - 2 more weeks.
Downside Thursday, closing below 69.55 signals another test of 67.08 within several days, able to contain weekly selling pressures and above which 77.20 is attainable over the next 3 - 5 weeks.
On the other hand, a daily settlement below 67.08 indicates 62.14 longer-term support within 2 - 3 weeks, where the broader market can bottom out through summer activity.
WTI rallies form range lows - break of $70 up next?WTI crude posted a strong rally from the $67 support level thanks to another strong drawdown of crude inventories. The fact it rallied over 3% despite the stronger US dollar and hawkish comments from Powell makes us wonder if it could have broken above $70 were the dollar not to dominate FX majors on Wednesday. Still, prices are trading within a range between $67 - $72/73, and whilst prices action remains choppy o the daily chart there are some opportunities to trade the range on lower timeframes.
A triple bottom has formed on the daily along with a 2bar bullish reversal (bullish piercing line). String volumes accompanied the rally from the $67.50 area to show demand around those lows and the OBV (on balance volume) broke above its previous swig high, which hints at a breakout for prices.
Prices are drifting higher at the open, but we’d consider bullish setups above or around the daily pivot point or 10/20 EMAs if prices pullback for a potential swing-trade long to $70.A break above which brings the resistance zones around $71 and $72 into focus.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 6/29/23For Thursday, the 67.08 level can contain weekly selling pressures, above which 72.77 is attainable by the end of next week, possibly yielding 77.17 by the end of July.
Upside Thursday, 69.95 can contain session strength, while closing above 69.95 signals 72.77 within 2-3 days, where the market can top out into later next week and the point to settle above for yielding the more meaningful 77.17 within 3-5 more days.
Downside Thursday, closing below 67.08 indicates 64.10 within 3-5 days, 62.14 longer-term support within 2-3 weeks, where the broader market can bottom out through summer activity
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 6/27/23For Tuesday, the 67.08 level can contain weekly selling pressures, above which 72.92 is attainable within the week, possibly yielding 77.00 within 2-3 weeks.
Upside Tuesday, 70.67 can contain session strength, while closing above 70.67 signals 72.92 within 2-3 days, where the market can top out through the balance of the week and the point to settle above for yielding the more meaningful 77.00 within 3-5 more days.
Downside Tuesday, closing below 67.08 indicates 64.67 within the week, 62.14 longer-term support within 1-2 weeks, where the broader market can bottom out through summer activity
#WTI Update #OOTT #USOIL #Brent I continue to expect a sharp, short-lived rally in the near term, despite the recent drops in oil prices making me feel uncertain.
The weakest point of my charts is - waves wxy of (b) and [w ] [x ] [y ] of ii are too complex. Nevertheless, it is my best scenario for now.
If the price exceeds $83.4 or wave high I provide a couple of alternatives in my Weekly Newsletter.
I see no bearish scenarios that allow keeping the previous labelling (which I have comfort with). Therefore, I will refrain from further chart manipulation. I will consider immediate bearish scenarios only if price breaks lower and I have to stop loss my trades.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 6/26/23A two-sided framework continues through summer between 62.14 long-term support, and 82.21 long-term resistance, both regions able to contain seasonal activity.
Downside, a weekly settlement below 62.14 indicates 53.87 within several months, longer term Fibonacci support able to contain selling into later year.
Upside, a weekly settlement above 82.21 indicates 94.67 within several months, able to contain annual highs.
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For Monday, the 67.08 level can contain weekly selling pressures, above which 72.87 attainable within the week, possibly yielding 76.91 within 2 - 3 weeks.
Upside Monday, 70.67 can contain session strength, while closing above 70.67 signals 72.87 within 2 - 3 days, where the market can top out through the balance of the week and the point to settle above for yielding the more meaningful 76.91 within 3 - 5 more days.
Downside Monday, closing below 67.08 indicates 64.67 within the week, 62.14 longer-term support within 1 - 2 weeks, where the broader market can bottom out through summer activity.
The Downward Trajectory: Understanding Weak Oil Market DynamicsOil looks weak. It seems extremely weak, mainly because production hasn't come down. Chinese demand is still low and might never reach its ATHs, but this, along with the US refilling its SPR, can potentially send higher oil prices.
However, this is unlikely to happen before the market takes out this quadruple bottom. Until all the lows are swept, and potentially until the market trades at 43-55$, it's unlikely to see oil go up. Only those prices will make OPEC+ cut production and have 80+ as its target. Until many of these member countries feel pain, it's unlikely that oil will trade above 80$ without some other geopolitical shock.
Again, oil can trade higher, but for now, the target is 60.6$, and potentially 54.2$ is next. We can look for potential longs toward 85-100$.