Crude Oil Futures WTI (CL1!)
oil 11-24 update.good evening,
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remember in my last oil post when i called the top?
there was some really salty humans in the comment section who were most likely bag holders from the absolute peak of the bull run.
this is an update for them.
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last post:
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i feel like oil has entered into a quatervois here, which is basically "crossroad" in french.
currently seeing two potential trajectories:
1.
-oil runs up to 100ish through an expanded flat (green targets most probable, grey are weak, and red is unlikely, but always possible).
-after which, a swift downturn to my $57 target from the original post.
2.
-oil simply see's a dead-cat bounce, creates another hidden bearish divergence, and rolls over yet again - continuing it's bearish trajectory to my original target.
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all paths lead down there, potentially even deeper - but the question as always is: which path's it gonna take?
ps. no offense to all the people who talk smack on my posts, you're always welcome if you have a proper argument.
just keep in mind, "fundamentals, is not a proper argument".
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, DAILY Market Analysis 11/25/22For Friday, 76.45 can contain weekly selling pressures, above which 93.76 is likely over the next 2-3 weeks.
Upside Friday, 82.70 can contain session strength, while closing above 82.70 indicates 93.76 within 1-2 weeks, where the market can top out into January, and a meaningful upside continuation point over the same time horizon.
Downside Friday, closing below 76.45 indicates 67.03 within 1-2 weeks, the start of a range of long-term support on the 64.15 able to contain selling through winter activity.
WTI OIL Buy opportunity to 83.00 and 86.00 short-termWTI Oil (USOIL) posted a Bull Flag pattern today similar to September 28 - 30, which is the rebound formation is shares many similarities with. The drop that led to the bottom on both sequences is very similar and you can see that by plotting the September 14 - 26 on November 09 - 18.
The 4H MACD is also on the same pattern, it appears that the price is on the cross point (red flag). The target is now the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) with an early projected hit at 83.00 and the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) around 86.00.
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Crude Oil (WTI) Detailed Trading Plan 🛢️
WTI Crude Oil is approaching a key daily structure resistance.
To short with a confirmation, watch a double top formation on 4H time frame.
80.3 - 80.8 is its neckline.
Wait for its bearish breakout (4h candle close below that), then, short aggressively or on a retest.
Goals: 78.4 / 76.0
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
CRUDE OIL Bullish entering DecemberWTI Crude Oil made a remarkable rebound yesterday marginally below the 76.30 Support (the Support Zone is now 76.30 - 75.30) and turned the 4H RSI around, approaching the 4H MA50 (yellow line).
This is the first Resistance (short term) with the initial target of this late September/October-like rebound being the 1D MA50 (blue line). If then the price breaks above the 1D MA100 (green line), we can continue buying and aim the 93.75 Resistance, which happens to be on the 0.382 Fibonacci level of the June 14 Top. Being so symmetrical, is why we consider the 0.236 Fibonacci to also be a medium term Resistance as well. A break above the 93.75 Resistance targets the 1D MA200 (orange line), the long term bearish barrier.
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WTI OIL: Strong bottom formation. 4H MA50 and MA200 eyed.Massive development yesterday as Oil broke even below the 76.20 Support of the September 26th Low and reached as low as 75.30 before a massive rebound back to 80.00 that almost closed the day with no losses. This turned 4H neutral again (RSI = 45.032, MACD = -1.560, ADX = 33.080). Since the price broke above the 1H MA50 (yellow) again, we have a confirmed bullish continuation and the target is the 4H MA50 (blue) and 4H MA200 (orange) in extension.
Watch how this is so far the very same Inverted Head and Shoulders bottom into rebound formation as on the September 26th Low. That rebound hit the 4H MA50 and 4H MA200 and formed a Resistance level at 93.65 that was pushed to 93.75 on the November 7th High. We can't yet call for such a high test this time as there is the 1D MA100 (red) posing as a Resistance first, just above the 4H MA200.
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Oil Outlook 2022 🛢️With global political tensions on the rise, the expectation for crude oil price seemed to be bullish across the mainstream media. Everyone seems to think that war=high crude oil prices. This is true. However OPEC+ just said they will likely be upping production in Jan 23 so price has been plummeting.
I was actually surprised that price wasn't moving higher yet before this announcement, however algobuddy was telling us on the weekly that it's still in bear mode so I have been weary of long positions on my short term charts. I try to stick with the overall weekly or monthly trend.
I also keep remembering when the US president said he'd like to see price of oil closer to $72 before he stops emptying reserves, and when a US president says something like this I like to think there are enough strings to pull that he can make it happen.
This seems to be working out, as price is almost down to that exact number now, especially after OPEC's announcement.
I do notice a broadening formation happing on the weekly chart right now around this area. This gives me the feeling that a big slingshot move up is coming. I'll keep my head on a swivel, but until we get a weekly algobuddy bull signal I am staying on the bear side for now.
IF the talk of WW3 turns more and more likely into becoming reality, then I will start to think of a move to the upside. IF weekly candle crosses and closes back above the algobuddy thick ribbon line then I'll turn bullish. It's already made a new low and peeked below the previous weeks bar and is now back above its low. This is bullish for me, however if price continues to make new lows and more production ramp announcements I will jump on shorts.
Looking forward to seeing how this week candle closes. If red, then we can see more downside move.
Stay solvent my friends 💪
AlgoBuddy
Oil forks suggest a more sustainable bull trend has bee set. The fork from the 2008 bull run was too steep to hold up. However, the recent run seems a much more sustainable grade, and lines up well with past moves. Perhaps the fork channel widens more here soon, but this looks about right here. The fibs are pretty close. I doubt we see $50/brrl again soon. Should stay above the median for quite some time.
WTI OIL: Can have a huge upswing long term.Crude Oil seems to be virtually repeating since November 2020 the past Cycle that started after the January 2009 recession bottom. All levels are the same and even though this March 2022 top smashed through the symmetric Resistance Zone due to the war in Ukraine, it pulled back below it.
Right now the price is rebounding on the Huge Pivot line as in August 2011 (see the Pivot acted as a Resistance on October 2018) after being rejected on the 1W MA50 (blue line). The RSI is also a copy paste of that period. The model suggests that WTI oil as long as it closes this week above the 1W MA100 (green), it should break above the 1W MA50 again and test the Resistance Zone again. There is also a Rising Support (Higher Lows) below since March 2021, which was also present from July 2009 to August 2014. The strongest technical support is the 1W MA200 (orange). It will be really interesting to see how the market handles this input.
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CRUDE Oil down trending again... Crude weekly points to more downside. Breaking below 76, would be bad news and 67 would be the downside target at the end of the year.
Technical indicator, MACD crossed down in bearish territory, and the VolDiv indicator turned red as it heads to the zeroline. Very dangerous when it does this...
Expect more downside to the last low at 76. Critical support level there.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, DAILY Market Analysis 11/17/22For Thursday, 89.25 can contain session strength, below which 82.84 is attainable over the next several days, where the market can bottom out into next week.
A settlement today below 82.84 signals 78.36 within several days, the start of a range of meaningful support down to 76.48 able to contain selling through the balance of the year.
Upside Thursday, closing above 89.25 signals 95.06 - 95.21 within several days, where the market can top out through the balance of the year, once tested the market prone to falling back to 76.48-78.36 within 3-5 weeks.
BLUE LINE - Last Support For Crude OilIs this it? Headed into the end of 2023 - are we going to see Crude Oil fall below $76 ppb as COVID & economic concerns trap the global economy into a contraction phase?
My research suggests Crude Oil will attempt to find support near $63 to $65 before attempting to bottom. From current levels, this suggests a -$30 ppb downward price trend is likely.
Two things are likely driving this trend:
Lack of global demand
Inflation/Price concerns
Has the current Flag/Pennant reached the APEX and is price attempting to break downward?
Time will tell...
Follow my research.
CL Daily up TrendThe CL daily time frame broke the short term
down trend line and has entered into the buy
zone. The market has an up Fibonacci with an
extension price point 104.39 about +1,909 ticks
above the market. As long as the market stays
in the buy zone above the short term down trend
line. It will be a good idea to turn to the one
hour time frame and to look for low prices in the
buy zone.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, DAILY Market Analysis 11/16/22For Wednesday, 89.46 can contain session strength, below which 82.77 is attainable over the next several days, where the market can bottom out into next week.
A settlement today below 82.77 signals 78.29 within several days, the start of a range of meaningful support down to 76.48 able to contain selling through the balance of the year.
Upside Wednesday, closing above 89.46 signals 95.06 - 95.35 within several days, where the market can top out through the balance of the year, once tested the market prone to falling back to 76.48-78.29 within 3-5 weeks.
On the other hand, a settlement above 95.35 indicates 103.38 within several weeks, the broader market in reach of 110.10 over the next several months.
WTI OIL: Trapped between the 1W MA50 and MA100The WTI Crude Oil has been giving the best set-up to swing traders as it has been ranging within the 1W MA50 (blue) and 1W MA100 (green) since August 31st. Great low risk high return opportunities exist within for as long as it lasts.
On the longer term, the September 26th bounce on the 1W MA100 was on the rising Support (Higher Lows) that has been in effect since March 2021. In fact even the 1W RSIhit and rebounded on its declining (Lower Lows) Support, with the previous two times (December 6th 2021 and August 23rd 2021) matching Oil's last two bottoms. The MACD needs to complete its bullish cross to confirm a new sustainable rise though, which will most likely be if Oil breaks above the 1W MA50. That would target the dashed rising Resistance (Higher Highs) that was the technical Resistance before the Ukraine/ Russia war distorted the price action.
On a different occasion, if the price breaks below the March 2021 rising Support, Oil could target the 1W MA200 (orange) for the first time since February 01 2021.
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WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, DAILY Market Analysis 11/15/22For Tuesday, 90.29 can contain session strength, below which 82.70 is attainable within the week, where the market can bottom out through Friday.
A settlement today below 82.70 signals 78.22 within several days, the start of a range of meaningful support down to 76.48 able to contain selling through the balance of the year.
Upside Tuesday, closing above 90.29 signals 95.06 - 95.49 within several days, able to contain buying through the balance of the year, and if settled above a bullish continuation region into January activity.