potential breakout on USOILI mentioned yesterday there was daily bull divergence and now we are starting to get over the channel trendline. We've gotten over it before only to be sold off rather quickly, so I'm just putting a caution out there. Bulls want to see 88.50 hold if there is any sell off. Over 93 and holding would be very bullish and probably would rally to about 104 minimum quickly. Nothing is clear yet.
Crude Oil Futures WTI (CL1!)
Oil Struggles to Recover $90Oil seems to have bottomed out at $85.55. We saw good support from green triangles on the KRI, and a subsequent pivot back to the high $80's. We are now just below $90, with $90.06 in particular being the level to break before attaining higher levels. We should see significant resistance there. The Kovach OBV is bearish and keeps pressing lower. If we fail to test the $90's, then $85.55 should provide support, with the next support levels below including $84.75 and $83.76.
Crude oil Some thesis:
Oil is more than enough worldwide. Supply exceeds demand.
Transition to electricity.
Shale oil - another attempt to manipulate.
Saudi Aramco - is the largest capitalization company in the world (another not a good signal for me).
We can propose many fundamental arguments, but this is a virtual trading chart (little connect with the real life). It is a world of financial markets. There are a few arguments from financial markets:
1. Largest players in oil futures are Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and City Bank.
2. All of the world's oil is traded exclusively for dollars (petrodollar). Some people wanted to change the system. Now they are dead. Saddam Hussein, Muammar Gaddafi, Christophe de Margerie, and possibly someone else. Therefore, oil is another instrument to strengthen the dollar. For example, now you can buy 2 barrels of oil per $100, and if the price is $20 you can buy 5 barrels. The same story happened in 2014 when oil fell from $100 to $30. Saudi Arabia has been talking to the media for a year about increasing oil production. As you understand, they do not participate in the formation of oil prices cause we see a chart of futures oil. All national currencies depreciated, and the dollar strengthened.
3. Most likely, they will use these instruments during the coming falling of the US economy.
4. We are moving in the downtrend channel.
5. Cycles.
Best regards,
EXCAVO
CL Daily falling towards up trend lineThe CL daily time frame is in a large up trend.
The market is moving from a high price towards
a future low price. There is a down Fibonacci
with an extension price point 83.55 that meets
the daily up trend line. It is expected the market
to push bearish towards 83.55 then U-turn Bullish.
If the market holds at the up trend line. It is
expected the market to push towards all time
highs near price point 147.27 about +5,808
ticks above the market. It will be a good idea
to stay out of the market until the daily up
trend line is hit. Then after the market hits
the daily up trend line to look for a bullish
reversal before turning to the one hour time
frame and looking for long ideas.
OIL PA1!8.15.22 OIL PALLADIUM : It's much easier to trade if you wait for the setup. Sometimes you don't know the Setup until it happens. You can take that trade too. Palladium can be a very volatile market and it is suitable for Traders the good Instinct and sufficient capital. I framed it with a simple range box and a Fibonacci retracement tool...And an ABCD tool.
Is Crude Breaking Down?An awful slate of economic data from China and the U.S. has hammered Crude Oil to start the week. Price action failed at resistance, aligning with the 21-day moving average Thursday-Friday, encouraging heavier selling after the data. Continued action below 87.50-88.00 leaves the door open for a test big support at 82.80-83.60 gap and .618 retracement.
Crude Oil (WTI): Technical Outlook For Next Week 🛢️
Hey traders,
WTI OIL is currently trading within a falling expanding wedge pattern.
While the market stays within its boundaries we remain bearish biased.
The price started to fall from a minor horizontal resistance in the middle of the wedge on Friday.
I guess that the price may drop even lower after the market opening.
Two underlined resistances are on focus for breakout/pullback trading.
I will post an update once I see a decent confirmation.
Good luck!
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Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
CRUDE prices look very weak - 82, and then 70.Reviewing the Crude price action, and it appears weaker than stronger, after its retracement.
At this point, the weekly chart is struggling to stay above the 55EMA, but technicals are showing strong weakness that would pull prices lower, and below the 55EMA in the coming weeks. A hint that this is the case comes from the candlestick of the week that just closed. Although it reclaimed above the weekly 55EMA, the candlestick did not close above the 50% mark of the previous candle, and left a top tail. This are indications that the coming week should be heading down below the 55EMA again.
The daily chart accentuates those hints... the recent late week surge in crude prices met the resistance band upper range, and Friday closed with a rather full inside candle. Like a Harami, this is a bearish indication of a bearish reversal. IF so, the Fibonacci projections point to a likely test and fail at 90, an immediate support at 82, and downside target at 70 ( by mid-end October). Technical indicators appear a tad weak with the RPM losing steam, and the MACD struggling to make a comeback with a crossover.
Am projecting a triangle support at 70... will know in time.
Oil Regains the Mid-$90'sOil has finally broken out, solidly reestablishing the $90's after spending a few days in the high $80's. We are still bound by $95.24, which has been our target and area of anticipated resistance since oil was in the $87's. We are seeing some red triangles on the KRI confirming strong resistance here. The Kovach OBV has picked up a bit, but it remains to be seen if we have enough strength to punch through the mid $90's and head back to the $100's. If we are able to break through $95.24, then $96.88 is the last level we must break before the $100's. If so, we should face resistance at $100 and $101.
USOIL 11th AUGUST 2022The United States posted an increase in inventories of 5.5 million barrels in the past week. The realization was higher than the expected 73,000 barrels. Gasoline products supplied also rose in the last week to 9.1 million barrels per day. The figure marks a 6% decline in demand over the last four weeks compared to the period last year.
From a fundamental point of view, the oil market continues to monitor the development of oil supply from Russia to Europe via the Druzhba pipeline, which was resumed earlier this week. The market is also awaiting the release of monthly oil data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) scheduled Thursday.
USOIL - back to the 80'sIt looks like both the markets and OIL will come down over the next day or two before a final rally up (SPX to 4250 area) and then a bigger move down for both into the fall.
For Oil, this means 90 should get broken and then I would expect a kickback rally up to test 92-94 again. At that point, oil should be a solid short opportunity.
That 92-94 area, being remarkable support for the last few weeks should be equally stiff resistance.
Target for oil - low 70's sometime in the fall.
CRUDE OIL (WTI) The Market of Bears🛢
Hey traders,
A very important thing happened on WTI Crude Oil this week.
The price broke and closed below a key daily demand area.
The broken structure turned into a resistance now.
I will expect a further decline to 85 level from that.
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
New Lows for Oil?Oil has bottomed out just about our level at 87.21. We have broken through levels in the 90's, giving up that handle completely. The Kovach OBV is very bearish, confirming the momentum from the selloff. If things pick up, 90.06, which once provided support, will now provide resistance, and is our next target. If the bear momentum continues, then 85.55 and 84.75 are our next targets from below.
Light Crude to jump up a notch. CL1!Technically X Wave, possibly backed by increasing demand ahead of the Winter seasons in Europe and the Russians playing games in the export market. All this might result in continued increase in gas prices locally or globally.
We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in green with invalidation in red. Confirmation level, where relevant, is a pink dotted, finite line. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe.
CRUDE OIL (WTI) Breakout & Bearish Outlook🛢
To be honest, I was surprised by a strong yesterday's bearish move.
The price broke and closed below a key daily demand zone.
It makes me think that WTI Oil may drop even lower now.
The price may drop to 85.0 level after a retest of a broken structure.
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Oil Presses LowerOil has fallen deeper into the high $80's following a selloff that broke monthly lows. We had very strong support at $92.03, and appeared to be seeing a double bottom forming, but the selloff knocked oil back a peg, smashing through multiple technical levels below in a persistence selloff that has taken us back to support at $87.21. We are seeing a green triangle forming on the KRI, but the selloff does seem persistent. We should have further support from $85.55 and $84.75. If we see a relief rally, the $90's should provide resistance.