SPX500 USOIL and BTC - the week's playbook and the CPI wildcardAll in the video, my guess is CPI is a bounce and then fail.
Crude Oil Futures WTI (CL1!)
How to trade OilLooking at CL1! now, a break of Friday's low is a daily-down rotation. Below $100 opens the door back down to the $96.50 area, followed by ~$93 and the 200-day.
Oil bulls have not been used to seeing /CL in a downtrend this year. However, that's the case at the moment with the 10-day acting as active resistance, while it's below all of its major short- and intermediate-term moving averages, as well as uptrend support.
Longer term, the trend still remains constructive, but /CL is currently vulnerable.
On the upside, oil needs to reclaim $105 to $105.50 to unlock $110+ but it will need to do more than that to repair the recent stress on the charts.
CL1! - Crude Oil Futures Weekly Analysis, 7/11/22Crude Oil futures tested the 200 day SMA and happened to find some very identifiable support.
Price ground higher to settle above the structure which it had failed causing the sell off.
Overcoming the descending GRAY structure above, likely puts this market back on pace to retest the 2008 high @ $147.
Support and Resistance structures have been adjusted for your reference this upcoming week.
Wishing you a blessed and profitable week!
CRUDE Bounced off & rehash...As previously expected, Crude bounced off 95 (95.10 to be exact) and it bounced off with gusto, to reclaim 100 support. The bounce was a fast intraday check-in at 95, and the following day clocked a bullish engulfing of sorts. This was then followed by another bullish day to end the week with a long lower tail, indicative that between 95 to 100, likes a lot of demand.
The daily technical indicators are starting to crossover.
This recovery bounce is also awesome as it broke down and out of the triangle and then returned back in. For technical analysts, we do know that when this happens, there is a higher probability that there will be an exit on the other side... ie. a breakout is imminent.
Note that the triangle was updated by readjustment from previously.
In the weekly chart, while the technical indicators are still trudging lower, the candlestick shows a temporary spike out of the triangle only to make it back in. This is a bullish indication IMHO.
Taken together, expect the bullish run to meet some resistance about 112-114 in the following days of the incoming week. There needs to be a higher low, that bounces off the triangle support... and then we just might get a bull run breakout in early August 2022.
Watch this one!
ps. Target breakout (dotted green arrow) and upside target of 165 updated. Pennant pattern (fibonacci) projection also added (dashed green arrow)
CL1!7.8.22 CL1! It wasn't pretty but I think I was able to focus on the significant support and resistance areas. I showed a two-bar reversal near the top. It did move lower, however there were support lines where the market had gapped hire and we had to deal with this. In fact, we ran into a two-bar reversal add support not so far away from the two-bar reversal the triggered the short trade. In short, we had to work hard for our money. The setup was a little complicated in this case, and the truth is I know this because I know where the support levels are, and yet I want to make the trade. When you trade lower time frames, this becomes a significant part of the trading process, which can be a little stressful. There is another aspect of this which is very important, and I did not explain this in the video because I was struggling to make my point before I ran out of time, and that is you have to be prepared the change your mind and quickly change your position in the market and that is something that will not be easy for most people, including myself. It also requires constant, or nearly constant screen time and you have to decide if that's really the kind of trading you want to do. On the other hand, you can make a lot of money doing this. It will restrict the number of markets should be able to follow in a given period of time...On the other hand, you can trade larger positions if you're good at this.
CL1!7.7.22 CL1! went up about 8 points in the last day. In this video, I gave a general review that I believe accurately reflects the market dynamics for what happened here. It will be much more useful if you listen to the video. You will see where the buyers and sellers are, and you will see reversal patterns. It is important to review the graphics if you want to understand the process. Tradingview is going to filter my videos in some way because of things I am not doing. If my students can follow my posts despite the filters, I can settle for that. However, I still felt that I had to express my point of view. Tradingview provides a good service, and I think I provide a good service with no cost to those who care to listen. Everyone has the choice to push the ''unfollow' button if they prefer to not listen to my videos. If I owned a business, I would want to run it my way, and I have no problem with that.
Crude levels for july expiry Most probably the trend seems to be bearish as the weekly channel has broken but a slight retrace can help a little bit high.
So plan your trades wisely.
Thank You.
WTI: Next step 👍WTI has made the next important step in the course of our primary scenario and has jumped below the support line at $101.53. We expect it to drop further still, namely below the next support at $92.93, where it should finish wave 3 in blue. After a short countermovement as part of wave 4 in blue, WTI should then fall into the white zone between $78.56 and $70.17. There is a 25% chance, though, that WTI could change direction and rise above the resistance at $130.50, thus enforcing further ascent.
CL - Crude Oil At Bounce PointCL reached the extremes short term.
From here I expect a bounce up, with a potential to the yellow CL (Center Line).
The idea is supported by the Stochastic, where the faster is overbought and the longterm is sloping up.
Risking small, aiming big, that's what I do in CL.
In contrarian I take profits quickly if it's not playing out like I want.
USOIL 6th JULY 2022USOIL fell below USD 100 as recession fears grew, fueling concerns that the economic slowdown would cut demand for petroleum products.
In the macro trend, oil tends to be bearish. By the end of this year if the economy is heading into a recession. In a recession scenario with rising unemployment, bankruptcy of households and firms, commodities will chase a downward cost curve as costs deflate and margins turn negative to encourage supply curbs.
However, the decline in oil prices will actually benefit manufacturing companies. They will take cheap prices for supplies, after 2 quarters of prices soaring.
USOIL D1
Crude Oil may fall rapidly to the 85 to 92 zone supportCrude oil futures CL1! Is making an ABC zigzag correction & may reach 92 where A=C. 88 is the 0.618 Fib retracement while 85 is the Nov2021 Top. This strong support zone will enable crude oil to retest the blue upchannel base before resuming rally thru 2022.
Crude oil is falling due to recesion fears & demand destruction. This should be temporary due to the supply issues created by the invasion & sanctions which will not go away soon.
Not trading advice
crude oil dailyThe CL daily is in an uptrend channel.
The market respect the bottom of the channel.
The next target is the hight of the channel
It will be a good idea to turn to the one-hour time
frame and to look for low prices in the buy zone.
ZB treasury bond 30 years signalI recommend selling us bond 30 next weeks, ZB treasury bond 30 years signal
The price reached an important retracement areaThe price reached an important retracement area
In addition to accessing donchian channels
CL1! - Weekly Market Update, 7/5/22Crude Oil has exhibited weakness, however we have yet to see a "trend change" occur yet.
The market has been climbing now for 9 months in a row of positive gains.
A breather is in store, but we'll be watching closely to see if things start to crack.
No actionable ideas at this time, while the bias remains to the long side.
I've adjusted support and resistance structures accordingly for your review.
