WTI OIL Major bullish signals last seen in July.WTI Oil (USOIL) Closed last week above the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) for the first time since July, which technically puts an end to the October - December 2023 downtrend but perhaps that's not the strongest bullish signal we've seen now. The asset completed on Friday a Golden Cross on the 4H time-frame, the first such formation since July 10th 2023.
That was at the start of a very aggressive rally up to late September to $95.00. We can yet speculate on such high target prices but on the shorter term, as long as the 4H RSI Higher Lows trend-line gives us another rebound, it should be enough not just to break above the Lower Highs of the price's Triangle but also above Resistance 1 (76.15). Our short-term target is 79.40, just below Resistance 2.
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Crude Oil Futures WTI (CL1!)
How you can earn money from this ICT setup?Here you are, please read the summary about Oil price below~
📈 Oil prices surged in early trade on Thursday, extending the previous day’s sharp gains on concerns about Middle Eastern supply following disruptions at a field in Libya and heightened tension around the Israel-Gaza war.
🛢️ Brent crude rose 33 cents, or 0.42%, to $78.58 a barrel by 0101 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 40 cents, or 0.55%, to $73.10.
📈 Both benchmarks rose by around 3% to settle higher for the first time in five days on Wednesday, with WTI seeing the biggest daily percentage gain since mid-November.
🚫 On Wednesday, local protests forced a full shutdown of production at Libya’s Sharara oilfield, which can produce up to 300,000 barrels per day. The field, one of Libya’s largest, has been a frequent target for local and broader political protests.
💥 Also on Wednesday, nearly 100 people were killed in blasts at an event to commemorate commander Qassem Soleimani who was killed by a U.S. drone in 2020. Iranian officials blamed unspecified “terrorists” and vowed revenge. However, no group has yet taken responsibility for the attack. The U.S. has seen no indication Israel was behind the blasts, White House national security spokesperson John Kirby said.
🔥 Swirling regional tensions from the ongoing Israel-Hamas war also continue to support oil prices.
🚀 On Tuesday, Hamas’ deputy leader was killed in a strike in Beirut - the first strike to hit the Lebanese capital in almost three months of near daily fire between the Israeli military and Iran-backed Hezbollah that had been confined to the border region.
🚢 Shipping concerns in the Red Sea also remained after Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis said on Wednesday they had “targeted” a container ship bound for Israel. U.S. Central Command said the militant group had fired two anti-ship ballistic missiles in the southern Red Sea the previous day.
Technical Analysis:
As we can see there are demand zone and FVG near $68 to $70 since the middle of 2023.
Here is a sharp rebounce (Pin bar) on the demand zone. A good ICT Long setup for both Swing and Intraday traders!
WTI crude looks set to retrace before its next big leg higherWTI appears set tor a cheeky retracement. Volumes were falling during its leg higher from $68, and Wednesday closed with an exhaustion candle. Note the strong trading activity around $70 which indicates some bears were caught short and bulls initiated, which assumes short-covering helped fuel the rally and any retracement towards $70 could also be supported.
From here we’re looking for prices to revert to $70. But given the strong support around the June lows / $68 and false break of $70, the bigger picture view is for a bullish rally to develop following a retracement heading into the new year.
$80 seems feasible as an initial target, around the 200-day EMA. But as you’ll see in the next post, a bigger bullish reversal could be unfolding on the weekly chart.
oil and the secondary wave of inflation.before you read any further read my post from may:
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in may of 2023 i called the top on oil and projected we come down into the $50-60 range. we ended up playing it out quite flawlessly. a lot of people were very angry at me for whatever reason back when i was calling for the top, probably due to their elevated levels of confidence and greed. those people got wiped out.
today, i bring to you a follow-up prediction, in line with my us10y prediction.
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i'm predicting that oil hits $181 per barrel over the next year, which will cause a secondary wave of inflation.
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oil w5 algo = $181
OIL in limbo, can go either way, waitingWe've called oil pretty decently before but a lil tough at the moment
Daily
#OIL has been in a bad downtrend.
Currently it is forming a symmetrical triangle.
Weekly
Oil is trading below its moving avgs.
Volume is lessening.
This is a hard commodity to call at times.
Anything can happen, war, cuts, etc...
Crude oil - $200 per barrelWe've all seen how oil reacted to the beginning of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. I am sure that this conflict will not settle down quickly and will only increase. The conflict will involve other players in the region - Emen is proof of this fact.
How will oil react to this?
The suspension of supplies and other problems with oil supplies will provoke demand for oil and the price will go higher and in the next few years will renew historical highs up to $200 per barrel. I think this was calculated by the coalition of aggressor countries before the war started.
about TA
We see a strong horizontal level where there is a lot of liquidity (concentration of stop losses) which will be collected up to the level of the largest horizontal volumes from below. And only after that, we will see a global reversal, which is probably the end of the year - December
On the chart, I have shown levels from which I will try to take longs.
I hope there will be PEACE in the world.
Our world looks very humongous in terms of cosmic civilization sending tons of bombs to kill each other.
Best regards EXCAVO
WTI CRUDE OIL: Targeting the 1D MA50.WTI Crude Oil is rebounding today aggressively after hitting and holding the 1W MA200, which as we've discussed on our channel, has been the long term Support since February 1st 2021. The rebound has turned the 1D technical outlook neutral (RSI = 47.857, MACD = -0.970, ADX = 22.204) but the 1D RSI is inside a Channel Up, which indicates that there might be a hidden bullish divergence for the long term.
Nevertheless, we cannot discuss any +25% to +30% moves as those in April and July 2023 unless the 1D MA50 breaks. Until then, we will focus on the short term and aim just under the 1D MA50 (TP = 74.50).
See how our prior idea has worked:
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WTI OIL Bearish below the 1D MA50.WTI Oil (USOIL) got rejected two days ago near the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been the downward Resistance since October 24, despite the fact that the price marginally broke above the 3-month Channel Down.
As long as it stays below the 1D MA50, the trend is bearish and we will target the 68.00 Low. On the long-term though, this is a huge Buy Zone since March but the price only rallied sustainably when a 1D candle closed above the 1D MA50. The 1D RSI is technically repeating the December 2022 bottom pattern, but we will only engage in buying above the 1D MA50, in which case we will target 82.50, which is a level reached both on the March and July's rallies.
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Crude oil wants to make money to read this article!The recent rise and fall of crude oil, as a whole is a big shock, although it is an upward trend, but not so clear, yesterday's daily line is very unexpected unexpectedly closed the negative line, the rise is not coherent, such a market we understand as shock, today's thinking of shock more treatment, today's crude oil attention yesterday back to the low point is the bottom of the upward trend of 1 hour, Strong support is near 73.10, these two positions are the positions of bull sniping, and the positions of pressure are 75.50 and 76.50
Crude oil continues to go longIn recent days, we have been bullish on crude oil, whether it is the shape or the indicator has formed a big counterattack signal at the daily level of bulls, 74.40 resistance position has not been able to suppress the bulls of crude oil, yesterday we bought at 72.70 and took profits at 74.10! A perfect profit. So how does the oil trade at the current price?
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Important Key Levels to Watch 🛢️
Here is my latest structure analysis for WTI Crude Oil.
Resistance 1: 74.1 - 75.0 area
Resistance 2: 78.5 - 79.8 area
Support 1: 71.7 - 72.9 area
Support 2: 67.7 - 68.7 area
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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Crude Oil 21/12Pair : Crude Oil
Description :
Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves and Making its " ABC " Corrective Waves. Bearish Channel as an Corrective Pattern in Long Time Frame and Its Currently Rejecting from the Upper Trend Line to Complete the Retracement for Break of Structure
Entry Precaution :
Wait for Breakout and Retracement
WTI CRUDE OIL Buy and target the 1day MA50.WTI Crude Oil / USOIL is inside a Channel Down but the bearish strength is fading as a Falling Support has been formed while the 1day RSI Double Bottomed.
At the same time the 1day MACD is about to form the 2nd Bullish Cross in less than a month.
The very same (Channel Down) pattern was trading back in June - August 2022, with the same bullish divergence and MACD Bullish Cross.
The price bottomed on that Cross and rebounded to test the 1day MA50.
Buy and target again the 1day MA50 with an early target estimate being 77.00.
Previous chart:
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US Oil ~ Macro Headwinds > Market Intervention (1H)TVC:USOIL chart mapping/analysis.
Crude Oil reversing all gains manufactured by OPEC+ production cuts & Middle-East conflict premiums, while threatening to further capitulate due to growing macro headwinds leading into 2024..
Trading scenarios into EOY:
Bullish resurgence = rally above horizontal resistance line (yellow dashed) into 23.6% Fib & upper range of descending parallel channel (white) / re-test ascending trend-lines (green dotted) confluence zone.
Bearish continuation = break below previous low (~68.80) towards ~67 horizontal line (yellow dashed) / descending trend-line (light blue / lower range of descending parallel channel (white) confluence zone.
Neutral scenario = further sideways chop until next OPEC+ catalyst / key macro economic development.
🔝 US Gas prices become more affordable as key breakdown is hereAmericans could breathe a sigh of relief with gas prices set to be more affordable this year.
US gas prices hit their highest 52 Weeks in August and September ahead of Labor Day, with the national average standing at $3.82 a gallon FRED:GASREGW , per AAA Gas Prices .
Gasoline prices hit summertime levels in over a decade even as the driving season comes to a halt, as a result of rising crude-oil prices TVC:USOIL driven by production cuts.
Brent crude TVC:UKOIL , the international benchmark, jumped to $90 a barrel earlier is September for the first time in 2023 after both Saudi Arabia and Russia extended oil production cuts of 1.3 million barrels a day through December 2023 in a bid to maintain price stability.
Higher US gas prices NYMEX:RB1! are a problem for the Federal Reserve, which has been trying to tame historically high inflation. The central bank has already hiked interest rates ECONOMICS:USINTR by more than 500 basis points since March 2022, helping lower the pace of consumer-price increases to 3.2% in July from last year's highs above 9%.
But the jump in fuel prices is threatening to derail the progress the Fed has made in taming inflation.
As a result, just after September, 2023 FOMC meeting market participants are waiting one or maybe two dovish Fed's Rate price actions in 2024. At the same time before September, 2023 Federal Reserve meeting, market expectations were about three cuts, near to four. (up to 100 b.p.).
Meanwhile juts a take a look what technical picture in RBOB Gasoline futures RB1! price says.
Near the middle of August, 2023 Gasoline futures prices turned massively down, due to seasonal backwardation in RBOB futures contracts, where autumn RBOB futures contracts are usually to be trade lower vs. summer RBOB futures contracts.
Moreover, in the last day of Q3'23 RBOB futures price turned firmly lower, breaking down the major trendline support that was actual all the time from disinflationary Covid-19 era. Moreover weekly SMA(52) is broken down also.
In a conclusion, I have to say that retail gasoline prices are usually to follow the major trend, within one or up to two months.
Crude Oil (WTI) Prepare to Short Next Week 🛢️
Crude Oil is very close to a broken support of a daily horizontal range.
72.2 - 73.0 is the area, from where I will anticipate the next bearish wave.
Let the price test the underlined yellow structure and wait for a confirmation
to sell from there.
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CRUDE OIL (WTI) Bearish Trend Continues 🛢️
Crude oil is trading in a bearish trend on a daily.
After a long-lasting consolidation within a horizontal range,
the market violated its support on a daily and set a new lower low.
Retesting the broken structure, the market started to coil within an intraday range.
Its support breakout gives us a strong intraday confirmation.
A bearish movement is now expected at least to 70.7
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WTI CRUDE OIL: Below the 1W MA200. Critical Support to hold.WTI Crude Oil crossed today under the 1W MA200, which is a level that, even though it broke on occassions this year, hasn't closed a 1D candle under it since February 1st 2021. Those occasions are marked by circles on your chart and as you see despite breaking under it, the price rose intraday closing the candles over the 1W MA200 at the end of those sessions, essentially holding it as long term Support.
It is now critical therefore for buyers to hold the 1W MA200 and push the candle above it before the closing bell today. The 1D technical outlook is strongly bearish (RSI = 31.049, MACD = -2.590, ADX = 35.758), which is normal considering that the commodity has been trading inside a Channel Down since the September 28th High. However having touched the 30.000 oversold level on the 1D RSI, it makes the case for a rebound stronger, since every time it gold oversold during this (almost) 2 year span, an aggressive rebound followed.
Consequently, as long as the 1D candles close over the 1W MA200, we will be buying and aming for the top of the Channel Down (TP = 76.50) and potentially the 1D MA50. If however the candle closes under it, we will aim for the 1.786 Fibonacci extension (TP = 66.50) as the November 8th Lower Low did.
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CL1! Crude Oil Day Trade 6-Dec-2023TRADE DIRECTION: SHORT; as indicated by the red EMA cloud and the market structure.
KEY LEVEL:
1) Round numbers S&R with 25 ticks range between each level (hidden)
2) Monthly, Weekly and Daily Pivot levels.
TRIGGER SIGNAL: Price broke the previous day's low (green circle) and retraced to the bearish EMA cloud. A bearish pin bar (in yellow circle) formed as a sign sellers are ready to push the price down. The Profit target is set to be 3 ticks above the Daily S3 (white circle).
RR: 1:1.56
SL: 54 Ticks
TP: 84 Ticks (achieved)
WTI CRUDE OIL High probability buy above the MA50 (4h).WTI Oil is trading inside a Channel Down since the September 27th High.
The price is now forming the Right Shoulder of a minor Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern that bottomed on the Lower Lows trend line of the Channel Down.
This is formation technically aims at pricing the new Lower High at the top of the Channel Down.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy the moment a (4h) candle gets closed over the MA50 (4h).
Targets:
1. 80.50 (which is the 1.382 Fibonacci extension, as the previous Lower High was priced. Also it's the MA200 4h and top of the Channel Down).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) is forming the exact same pattern as the previous bottom from October 6th to 12th. Once it re-crossed over its MA line, the spike that priced the top started.
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Notes:
Past trading plan: