Get started

Cl1!short

ridethepig | Oil Market Commentary 2020.03.20You can smell the struggle for buyers in the air, the retrace should first be faded at the next technical breakdown as smart money insists on elimination of the base. After the attack, we can start to look at forming a new base, rinse and repeat! If you wish to undermine construction, you naturally will not make it in this game and likely not as an architect either. Example, after the OPEC desperation leg : The ornamentation would naturally follow automatically. After Russia showed signs of buckling on the supply side there was a lot of panic covering from the soft hands. Buyers played somewhat naively, as though the Saudi's would not see this and play something like a break towards $15! That is the logical way for things to develop here. Smelling another test of the lows as early as next week... Very simple. Try to take on the first breakdown, if we deliver a powerful blow then run with momentum for the lows. And always start with the big chief! Thanks as usual for keeping the likes and comments rolling!
TVC:USOILShort
by ridethepig
5
Crude oil falls from heights! Next level $57.50?In our last analysis, we were targetting $65.50+ on oil and we got our profit target with a little help from the increased Middle Eastern tensions. From there the news subsided for the most part (tensions still high) and everything was priced in. Causing Oil to regulate back down to the "normal" levels. Price plunged through all the immediate support levels. Through $62.50, $61.00 and even $59.50. From here there are two short term opportunities. The bulls or the bears. The current intraday price action suggests there's more downside with the descending triangle. First the support structure at $58.70 has to collapse for price to continue to lows. We could see price use that broken support as resistance on the retrace which will confirm the downside. The downside target is first at $57.85 then $57.00. There could be a late run by the bulls through the immediate resistance. If price moves above $59.65 and holds it as support on the retrace we could see $61.00 oil yet again. The downside volume is, however, coming out pretty aggressively. This idea is for educational purposes only. This does not constitute as trading or investment advice. TRADEPRO Academy is not responsible for any market activity.
NYMEX:CL1!
by TRADEPROAcademy
1
ridethepig | Energy OverboughtA good time to update the Oil chart after the OPEC desperation leg. Those following the previously posted long-term macro chart will remember the breakout we have been tracking: On the demand side, manufacturing remains sluggish and we are again outguessing signs of the effects on the demand side. Equities wont be able to hold Oil up for too much longer, this is starting to look clearer by the day with only one direction for Oil in the long-term. For the flows I continue to sell rallies, this works nicely as a hedge versus the USD devaluation / reflationary theme for 1H20. A major breakdown here will cause for a reassessment of the USDCAD macro map for 2020. Remember we traded some of the swing highs previously to the tick: Overall, I see the case for meaningful Oil weakness in 2020, but if we get significant USD devaluation - maintaining longs will require patience and tolerance. Difficult to trade, for sure, but I still feel the bigger Oil risk lies to the downside. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc. Good luck all those selling rallies in Oil.
TVC:USOILShort
by ridethepig
9
Crude Oil breaks bull structure, will we see $50.00 oil? Over the past few weeks, oil was making some gains slowly to push up from the lower $50.00 level and nearly into $60.00. There was some technical stagnation just under $59.00. A triple top had formed and we were waiting to see if support would hold for a push through resistance into $60.00, then the news came out from OPEC and OPEC+ that brought a strong 5% drop in the price. Through all support structure that was supposed to hold for upside. The bull trend is officially broken, which means we are looking for level at which to short CL to a move lower. The news is short-term however we may an extended move lower in the coming days or weeks. The first support level was $57.40, however price closed at $55.45 on Friday's close, right at support. The next level for the retrace based on the market structure is around the 50% retrace move from the whole downside and the previous support level is broken ($56.75). The year to date POC is at $56.50 so there is a 25 cent range between those levels that could be a good area of resistance for the shorts. Above that, we may start looking for longs again. The target to the downside is $54.05.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by TRADEPROAcademy
1
Chart of the Day: Crude at major inflection point downCouple of major points to unpack relating to oil which points a major inflection point downwards to a material low:- #1 Oil is on a downward trend since peaking in Oct'18. In fact, the Oct'18 peak is a lower high vs. the 2014 peak which was a lower high from the 2008 peak. In short, there is a massive decade long downtrend line which suits the thesis that oil usage is in decline. Please note, I am saying decline in usage but am not saying oil is dead. #2 There are multiple ABCD down patterns in play:- #2.1 Major ABCD starting from Oct'18 peak and CD leg commencing in Apr'19 #2.2 Minor abcd starting in Apr'19 with BC leg just completed with the immaterial new highs into SSR and fibonacci resistance. Link to earlier call for the minor bc leg can be found below. abcd price target is $45 and ABCD price target is $31.50. At $31.50, we can start discussion again for a potential up cycle as there is still an underlying demand for oil coming from the industrial complex and the fact remains, there are no new capacity for conventional oil which would suggest tightness as light sweet is structurally unsuitable for use as an industrial product.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by WellTrainedMonkey
Look Out Below On $CL1! $CL_F WTI Crude Oil FuturesThere's really no bullish case that we can make for oil at this time. We are already into the summer driving season and supplies continue to increase. Last night, the API reported crude oil supplies rose by 4.9 million barrels. The market was expecting a decrease of 481,000 barrels. All eyes are now focused on the 10:30 am DOE report. With crude oil back under $52, we believe there's no reason for the shorts to cover. Market sentiments are overly weak and bearish and we don't believe $50 will hold. A break of $50 and we will be targeting $42. The overall bearishness in the oil patch is why we are not recommending owning any oil or gas stocks at the moment. For the bulls, the only hope is the June 25th OPEC meeting followed by the group meeting with Russia. If a major supply cut is reached, we will look to re-evaluate our bearish stance. As always, trade with caution and always use protective stops. Good luck to all!
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by InsiderFinancial
Crude CL1! Correction incompleteThanks for viewing. I put CL1! Crude in a wave (4) correction. I was quite happy with my prediction of the last drop from 75 to 64.50 (although I picked the start of the price decline accurately, I was expecting a drop a bit lower on that occasion) but then stopped following crude closely. It would be a little surprising if we were done after that first drop to $65 as wave 4 of any degree tends toward a complex, shallow, and lengthy correction. What we saw since the drop to $64.50: - A nice price recovery to $76.90 exceeding the previous swing high, - What was shaping up to be an impulse wave was forming - I had a tentative target for wave 5 of $78+, - What appeared as an impulse wave retraced deeply and on the 11th of October it revealed itself to be a failed impulse wave due to heavy selling pressure, - In the price decline from $76.90 5 waves down have shown themselves (no internal failures). - The recent down-move may be at or approaching its end - as wave 5 has 5 sub-waves visible, that have met normal extensions, So what happens now? Likely another 5,3,5 abc to retrace somewhere around half of the previous move before extending down to around my speculative lower trend-line. After that? No sure yet, but multiple zig-zags and triangles are common in wave 4 and can be a real challenge to trade successfully. What could happen? A multiple zig-zag could move as low as $55 (the wave 1 top) before the larger-degree upward impulse move, with a tentative target above $85, becomes invalid. Protect your funds everyone.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by flyinkiwi10
CL Crude Oil analysis - ShortPrice this broke a 13 month Trend line support level, and is showing signs of a retest before what I expect to be a further push lower, beginning a downtrend. First off we see price may have found a short term bottom where price almost exactly hit a tight Fibonacci cluster zone (fib. ext. 150, fib. proj. 127.2, fib. retrac. 88.6). On the same day (5/5/17, NFP Friday) of hitting the fib. cluster zone, we see a quick reversal back up near the short term support break that occurred on Thursday. I'm anticipating price to move slightly higher, closer to the 38.2 fib retracement of the current down swing ($47.58) where I expect price to retest before moving down to continue the current downtrend. TVC:USOIL
TVC:USOILShort
by JabezZinabu
CL Monthly Technical Outlook - 9th July 2016From a technical perspective, the oil price has turned quite interesting since the start of a new trading month. The chart below shows the monthly rolling oil contract chart where June’s price action closed in a doji. It gains significance following three straight months of gains. The monthly Stochastics also shows the hidden bearish divergence currently playing out, as prices form a lower (June) high at $51.66 and the higher Stochastics while, the higher (May 2015) high at $62.51 and the subsequent lower high in the Stochs. In the near term, oil prices could remain range bound within 48/49 and 44/45 levels. www.tradingsignalreviews.com
FX:USOIL
by TheBanker
5