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WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 8/11/23For Friday, the 81.49 - 81.64 area can contain selling through the balance of the year, above which 86.15 remains a 2 - 3 week target, 102.96 attainable by the end of the year.   In the more immediate vicinity, 84.14 can contain session strength, while closing above 84.15 indicates 86.15 within several days, able to contain weekly buying pressures - once tested the market susceptible to falling back to 81.49 long-term support within 1 - 2 weeks.   A daily settlement above 86.15 indicates 92.93 - 93.53 over the following 3 - 5 weeks, where the market can top out on a monthly basis.   Downside Friday, closing below 81.49 indicates a good August high, 78.02 then expected by the end of next week, 70.85 attainable by the end of September.
NYMEX:CL1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
Brent Crude OilBrent crude oil had quite the month in July, climbing from $74 per barrel all the way up to $85. This price jump came from Russia cutting back on exports to Saudi Arabia, trimming all their oil production. Still, I don't think the price is going to burst out of its range of $72 - $88 per barrel yet. What's interesting is the strengthening of "crack spreads" Now you may be wondering what "crack spread" is. It's basically the difference between the buying cost of crude oil and the selling price of the final products, such as gasoline and diesel. There has been a significant increase in the crack spread for RBOB gasoline due to a production mismatch with the total demand and exports. Although there was a decrease in demand in July, the low inventories of gasoline at a five-year low and diesel at a multi-decade rock-bottom level have helped maintain prices for refined products. Add to this mix a hike in jet fuel demand, mostly driven by China's international travel sector. There's more. Due to the hot summer heat reducing shipping capacity along the Rhine River, European refineries might need to cut back production. This could prompt the U.S. to ramp up the export of key industrial fuels. The Rhine River in Europe, vital for transporting fuel & goods, is running into some trouble. Water levels in a part of the river (Kaub chokepoint) are the lowest they've been in 30 years. That's not good because if the water's too low, the big boats (barges) can't get through. Low water levels halted the barges last summer & may happen again without adequate rainfall. This impacts the delivery of critical goods (heating oil fuel) Barges moving heating oil fuel from Rotterdam saw their cargo loads nearly cut in half from 2000 to 1200 tons within a week. Less water and harder access mean using barges is getting more expensive. So a river that's too dry for boats to pass through properly could cause many problems with getting goods around Europe & might even make things more expensive. The inflation battle isn't over in Europe. Now for those keeping an eye on inflation. As gasoline prices rise in tandem with crude oil, it inevitably drives up the price of pretty much everything. Diesel demand reflects the overall economy's well-being but has fluctuated throughout this year. If there continues to be poor economic data from the US, China, and the EU, we could very well be starring down the barrel of a recession (pun intended ). This is why limit the current price ceiling to the high $80s for crude oil. The strength of crude has reached the upper limit of our forecast range and is still within the range of $72 to $87. If it breaches $88, it may reach $95 and have a greater impact on refined products. However, concerns about a recession will likely keep a limit on the price for now. The long-term impact of refinery shutdowns over the past 3 years and the current state of inventories is worth noting. If a recession hits and refinery runs dip, rebuilding inventories will be a severe challenge unless demand drops off a cliff. There's a catch-22; central banks are trying to cause that drop by hiking interest rates. The downside is that these higher rates can deter drilling and exploration for new oil and gas, further compounding the problem down the line. This is a vicious cycle. Destroying your economy to tackle inflation is like cutting off your arm because a paper cut is not something I would recommend. I expect Brent will trade between $72 and $88 per barrel until Q4. After that, don't be surprised if it creeps close to the $90 mark. As outlined in my blog I published on August 5th 2023
BLACKBULL:BRENT
by RomanoRnr
1
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 8/10/23For Thursday, the 81.49 - 81.66 area can contain selling through the balance of the year, above which 86.28 remains a 2 - 3 week target, 102.96 attainable by the end of the year.   In the more immediate vicinity, 84.18 can contain session activity, above which 86.28 is attainable intraday and able to contain weekly buying pressures, once tested the market susceptible to falling back to 81.49 long-term support within 1 - 2 weeks.   A daily settlement above 86.28 indicates 92.93 - 93.53 over the following 3 - 5 weeks, where the market can top out on a monthly basis.   Downside Thursday, closing below 81.49 indicates a good August high, 77.86 then expected within 3 - 5 days, 70.77 by the end of September.
NYMEX:CL1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 8/8/23For Tuesday, the 81.49 - 81.71 area can contain selling through the balance of the year, above which 86.54 remains a 2 - 3 week target, 102.96 attainable by the end of the year.   Upside Tuesday, 84.17 can contain session strength, while closing above 84.17 indicates 86.54 within several days, able to contain weekly buying pressures and the point to settle above for yielding 92.93 - 93.53 over the following 3 - 5 weeks, where the market can top out on a monthly basis.   Downside Tuesday, closing below 81.49 indicates a good August high, and quite possibly through the balance of the year, 75.49 then considered 1 - 2 week target, possibly yielding 62.14 by the end of the year.
NYMEX:CL1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
WTI OIL Double Top rejection or break-out?WTI Oil (USOIL) almost hit today 83.50 (Resistance 1), which was the April 12 High that caused a rejection on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The 1D MA200 is now long broken, so any 1D candle close above Resistance 1 will be a bullish break-out targeting Resistance 2. In that case we will buy and target 93.00. Until it breaks though, especially after an initial bearish warning shot on the 1D RSI that broke below its MA trend-line from overbought levels, it is very likely today's test to end with a price rejection towards 74.00 (Support 1). In that case, we will wait for the most optimal bearish confirmation by the 1D MACD and sell after a Bearish Cross and a rejection on the 4H MA50 (red trend-line). Our target will be 74.00 (Support 1). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOIL
by TradingShot
4
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 8/7/23For Monday, the 81.49 - 81.73 area can contain selling through the balance of the year, above which 86.67 remains a 2 - 3 week target, 102.96 attainable by the end of the year. Upside Monday, 84.17 can contain session strength, while closing above 84.17 indicates 86.67 within several days, able to contain weekly buying pressures and the point to settle above for yielding 92.93 - 93.53 over the following 3 - 5 weeks, where the market can top out on a monthly basis. Downside Monday, closing below 81.49 indicates a good August high, and quite possibly through the balance of the year, 75.49 then considered 1 - 2 week target, possibly yielding 62.14 by the end of the year.
NYMEX:CL1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 8/4/23For Friday, the 80.50 - 81.61 long-term resistance area can contain buying through summer activity, below which 76.77 is likely by the end of next week, 62.14 attainable over the next 3-5 months. On the other hand, a weekly settlement today at or above 82.42 (1% above 81.61 – page 2) would set off a meaningful buy signal into later year, 87.27 then expected within 3-5 weeks, 103.33 within 3-5 months (p 2). Downside Friday, 78.97 can contain intraday weakness, while breaking/opening below 78.97 allows 76.77 intraday, able to contain selling into next week and the point to settle below for then indicating 70.40 over the next 2-3 weeks.
NYMEX:CL1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 8/3/23For Thursday, the 80.65 - 81.61 long-term resistance area can contain buying through summer activity, below which 76.57 is likely within 1 - 2 weeks, 62.14 attainable over the next 3 - 5 months. On the other hand, closing today above 82.42 signals 84.44 within the week, while a weekly settlement tomorrow at or above 82.42 (1% above 81.61) would set off a buy signal into later year, 87.27 then expected within 3 - 5 weeks, 103.33 within 3 - 5 months. Downside Thursday, 78.56 can contain intraday weakness, while breaking/opening below 78.56 indicates 76.57 - 77.37 intraday, able to contain weekly selling pressures and the point to settle below for then indicating 70.40 over the next 2 - 3 weeks.
NYMEX:CL1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 8/2/23For Wednesday, the 80.65 - 81.61 long-term resistance area can contain buying through summer activity, below which 76.48 is likely within 1 - 2 weeks, 62.14 attainable over the next 3 - 5 months.   On the other hand, closing today above 82.42 signals 84.44 within the week, while a weekly settlement Friday at or above 82.42 (1% above 81.61) would set off a buy signal into later year, 87.27 then expected within 3 - 5 weeks, 103.33 within 3 - 5 months.   Downside Wednesday, closing below 80.53 indicates a good weekly high, 76.48 - 76.97 then expected by the end of next week, able to contain weekly selling pressures when tested and a meaningful downside continuation point into later August.
NYMEX:CL1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 8/1/23For Tuesday, the 80.65 - 81.61 long-term resistance area can contain buying through summer activity, below which 73.40 is likely by the end of August, 62.14 attainable over the next 3 - 5 months.   On the other hand, closing today above 82.42 signals 84.48 within the week, while a weekly settlement Friday at or above 82.42 (1% above 81.61) would set off a buy signal into later year, 87.27 then expected within 3 - 5 weeks, 103.33 over the following 3 - 5 months.   Downside Tuesday, 78.12 can contain session weakness, while closing below 78.12 indicates a good high through next week, 76.12 - 76.13 then expected over that time horizon, able to contain weekly selling pressures when tested and a meaningful downside continuation point into later August.
NYMEX:CL1!
by SpecialeAnalysis