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Crude Oil Breakout Struggling for Follow ThroughWe started this week off with a massive gap higher from WTI crude, but where is the follow through? The jump from Friday to Monday makes sense on the OPEC production cut news, but the EIA reporting US strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) hit their lowest levels since the week of Nov 25, 1983 barely offers a hiccup of demand-backed bullish interest. It could be that today's ISM service sector report from the US has revived recession concerns and thereby curbed the demand picture on a higher level, but intraday price action doesn't really give much weight to that view for me. Seeing inside days on very narrow range sessions after a massive gap higher is striking. Keeping an eye on the 82.50 range high that stretches back to November and then the 38.2% Fib of the bull run from April 2020 low (cutting out the inversion) to June 2022 high at ~83.15. And just above that we have the 200-day SMA at ~84.30. Are technicals overriding fundamental drive?
NYMEX:CL1!
by JohnKicklighter
WTI CRUDE OIL: One High left before new selling pressure.The WTI Crude Oil is being currently rejected on the 4H MA200 but with 4H technicals naturally bullish still (RSI = 61.154, MACD = 1.320, ADX = 61.771). This is due to the strong 9 day rally since the price made a bottom on the LL trendline of the Channel Down of December. The 4H RSI also got rejected on the 70.000 overbought level and 5 times out of 6 within this Channel Down, this was an indication that we are either at the top or the last High before the top (LH trendline of the Channel Down). The last three tops were priced on the 1D MA100. We give slightly higher probabilities of this happening again. Sell this and TP = 67.00 (S1). Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:USOILShort
by InvestingScope
1
USO (CRUDE) Bullish Bounce... something is up!Previously, it was observed and expected that Crude was to bounce. Instead, Crude made a dive down and out of the boxed range. For a moment, took a second take on the analysis and decided that it might have been a bit before its time, since the longer term pointed to two trends; crude to go up and USD to go down. So, a chance came when USO triggered twice in the 15min chart ( system alerts set based on 15min intraday chart as a personal standard ). It was a calculated risk and probability count. USO/Crude had oversold, bounced off a couple of times, and broke our of a short term trend line. The Daily chart had a range breakdown, followed by long tails for the previous three days. It appeared to have a good probability of recovering. A position was taken (USO 50 delta Call). From there, we can observe the volatility (and hence you prefer to be in earlier and smaller position) and the development of the trade in the daily chart shows the opening of gap ups and closing of gap downs. Furthermore, USO / Crude broke back into the range. And for such failures that recover and break back into range (orange and/or yellow box), there is a high probability of breaking out the other end. And yet other observations have the Fibonacci retracement bounce off the 50% to project a near term target of about 65.68 (150%). All these are encouraged by the previous day's candlestick as Monday's candle gapped up and closed a previous gap down, and ended the day very near to intraday high. Daily technical indicators (MACD and VolDiv) have crossed over and are starting a bullish alignment.(Noted that the breakdown out of the range did have a VolDiv bullish divergence that was very obvious, an early suggesting that it was going to bounce and recover. Going forward, USO is starting to be overbought, and a possible pullback to head up further to near term target is expected. Could be more bullish or otherwise more bearish. but am expecting the range support to hold better this time.
AMEX:USOLong
by Auguraltrader