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WTI breaks out ahead of US inflation dataWe suspect volatility may be on the quiet side with a US inflation report looming, but this provides the opportunity for markets to consolidate and traders plan trades. Should we see the pace of inflation to continue slowing, it could strengthen oil prices for two basic reasons. 1 - A weaker US dollar, as traders bring forward rate cut bets / solidifies bets of 5.25% peak rate 2 - Reduces the odds of a recession and increases oil demand expectations The softer inflation is, the stronger the bullish reaction for oil could be expected. - WTI futures closed above trend resistance following a bull-flag breakout, which was accompanied by positive-delta volume during the rally to recent highs. - Prices are now consolidating, but we'd welcome a pullback towards $73 to buy dips in anticipation of a breakout above $74. - Initial target is $76 (near the upper daily ADR band) - A move to (and beyond) $77 could be on the cards if we're treated to a weaker-than-expected inflation report - The bias remains bullish above $72.50
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by CityIndex
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 5/10/23For Wednesday, 69.85 can contain session weakness, above which the targeted 75.23 is attainable intraday and able to contain weekly buying pressures. A daily settlement above 75.23 indicates 83.08 within several weeks, the start of a range of longer-term resistance up to 85.16 able to contain buying into later summer. Downside Wednesday, a settlement below 69.85 indicate 66.94 within several days where the market can bottom out through the balance of the week, and above which 75.23 remains a 3 - 5 day objective. A daily settlement below 66.94 indicates a good weekly high, 62.14 then considered a 3 - 5 day target where the market can bottom out through June, and over that time horizon remains poised for recovery into the 83.15 - 85.16 region.
NYMEX:CLM2023
by SpecialeAnalysis
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 5/9/23For Tuesday, 69.85 can contain session weakness, above which the targeted 75.65 is attainable intraday and able to contain weekly buying pressures. A daily settlement above 75.65 indicates 83.10 within several weeks, the start of a range of longer-term resistance up to 85.16 able to contain buying into later summer. Downside Tuesday, breaking/opening 69.85 allows 67.77 intraday, where the market can bottom out into later week and above which 75.65 remains a 3 - 5 day objective. A settlement today below 67.77 indicates a good weekly high, 62.14 then considered a 3 - 5 day target where the market can bottom out through June, and over that time horizon remains poised for recovery into the 83.15 - 85.16 region.
NYMEX:CLM2023
by SpecialeAnalysis
Crude Oil Ka-BoingNice long tail on the weekly chart, after a lower low. Technical indicators MACD and VolDiv appear bearish but this is suspiciously like a hidden dragon. Taken altogether, the first resistance is 76, and once close above 80 is firmed bullish. The lower low suggests more downside, but the length of that tail is telling a very bullish story for the next couple of weeks. So... expecting a consolidation range fighting between bears and bulls between 70-80; while leaning towards a bullish breakout much later... perhaps (ideally) after higher low. Do note that in alignment to the earlier post about the USD dropping, it does look like Crude now has a better chance of turning around to reinstate its bullish efforts.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Auguraltrader
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 5/5/23For Friday, 71.76 can contain buying into June, below which 62.14 remains a 1 - 2 week target. Downside Friday, 67.12 can contain intraday weakness, while breaking/opening below 67.12 allows 62.14 intraday, where the broader market can bottom out into June activity, and the point to settle below for signaling the next long-term support level at 53.87 within 3 - 5 more weeks. Upside Friday, a settlement today above 71.76 indicates a good May low, 81.48 long-term resistance then attainable within 3 - 5 weeks where the market can top out into later summer and a significant upside continuation point over the same time horizon.
NYMEX:CLM2023
by SpecialeAnalysis
CRUDE to bounce a bit, if at all, else dive hardBased on Crude's weekly chart, it clearly lost the bullish plot (posted 1st May, see linked post). As of the current Crude futures price action, a few preliminary observations can be recorded... 1. A lower low is recorded, and this aligns with the weekly technical outlook of a more bearish close to the weeks ahead; 2. Yesterday closing at 68.52 broke down all prior marked supports, except for the TDST at 66.12. Note that a close below and 3 days of closing below 66.12 changes Crude into a bearish primary trend. So, expect a lot of dancing about (or bounces off) this area, until that happens. 3. Today closing is important... IF closing at current levels, then a bounce to 74-76 can be expected, due to the long shadow/tail (green ellipse). Otherwise, a breakdown below the TDST support level turns all bearish. 4. Technically, it appears to favour further downside once market hours open. MACD and VolDiv on the daily are aligned to weekly indication of more downside momentum, having already crossed into bear territory. Watch the USD... it has a lot to do with the magnitude, although other fundamentals will affect Crude directly. Mindful that tomorrow is the Non-farm Payrolls.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Auguraltrader
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 5/3/23For Wednesday, 71.76 can contain selling through May, above which 81.48 long-term resistance is attainable by the end of June or sooner. Upside Wednesday, 73.98 can contain intraday strength, beyond which 75.45 is likely intraday and able to contain session strength. Closing today above 75.45 indicates a good weekly low, 81.48 long-term resistance then attainable by the end of next week, where the market can top out into June and a significant upside continuation point into later summer. Downside Wednesday, breaking/opening below 71.76 signals 71.03, able to contain intraday selling yet below which 67.12 is attainable by the closing bell. Overall, a daily settlement below 71.76 would signal 62.14 over the next 3 - 5 weeks.
NYMEX:CLM2023
by SpecialeAnalysis
WTI OIL Target hit. Now sell the rebound.WTI Oil (USOIL) hit our 72.50 target we set last week (see chart below) and maintains the tight trade within this short-term Channel Down pattern: At the moment today's aggressive bearish leg can very well make a Lower Low of the Channel Down at 71.10 and then rebound, with the 4H RSI Rectangle giving a valid level on its bottom to be prepared for. Until the price closes above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), we will look to sell again near the top of the Channel Down and target the bottom at 68.10, near the 1W MA200 (yellow trend-line). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOILShort
by TradingShot
Crude Oil Futures: Open Interest and Technical AnalysisPreliminary data from CME Group indicates that open interest in crude oil futures markets increased for the fourth consecutive session on Monday, registering a gain of approximately 4.3K contracts. Conversely, trading volume decreased for the third consecutive session, declining by roughly 260.5K contracts. Technical analysis indicates that the crude oil price has retraced to the 50% Fibonacci level in combination with the previous resistance area, suggesting the possibility of another bearish leg (AB=CD pattern) with a target of approximately HKEX:62 or lower. Alternatively, the next significant resistance level for the crude oil price could be around $80.00. Given the rising open interest, the daily uptick in price is likely to continue the recovery in the near term. The key target to watch for is the $80.00 per barrel mark.
NYMEX:CL1!
by FOREXN1
7
USOIL 2/MAY/2023It is anticipated that the Federal Reserve, which is responsible for managing the US's monetary policy, will raise interest rates again. This could potentially cause the US economy to slow down and enter a recession later this year. In recent weeks, concerns about a banking crisis have affected the oil market. The US government took over First Republic Bank, and JPMorgan purchased most of its assets, causing alarm as three other US banks have previously collapsed: Signature Bank, Silvergate Bank, and Silicon Valley Bank. If more banks encounter difficulties, it may lead to a banking crisis that could cause a recession and a decrease in oil demand. Additionally, voluntary production cuts of about 1.16 million barrels per day by OPEC+ countries, including Russia, will take effect in May, impacting oil prices. On a positive note, the US's manufacturing industry is improving, and with rising demand and employment, this has slightly boosted oil prices.
TVC:USOILShort
by DNP-FX
2
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 5/2/23For Tuesday, both 73.98 and 77.54 can firmly contain intraday activity, beyond which the next notable level is attainable intraday. Downside, breaking/opening below 73.98 allows 71.76 intraday, able to contain selling through May, once tested the market poised for recovery to 81.48 within 1 - 2 months. A daily settlement below 71.76 would signal 62.14 over the next 3 - 5 weeks. Upside Tuesday, pushing/opening below 77.54 allows 78.66, where the market can place a daily high. A settlement today above 78.66 indicates the 79.84 - 81.48 region within several days, able to contain buying into June, once tested the market prone to fall back to 71.76 within 1 - 2 months.
NYMEX:CLM2023
by SpecialeAnalysis
1
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 5/1/23The 81.48 level can contain buying through June, below which 71.76 is likely to be tested over that time horizon and able to contain monthly selling pressures when tested, as well as the point to settle below for yielding 62.14 within 3 - 5 more weeks, where the broader market can bottom out through summer. Upside, a weekly settlement above 81.48 signals 95.29 within 2 - 3 months, able to contain buying through summer activity and a meaningful upside continuation point into later year. - For Monday, 75.28 can contain session weakness, above which 78.66 remains a 2 - 3 day target, possibly yielding 79.90 within the week, the start of a range of meaningful resistance up to 81.48 able to contain buying into June, once tested the market prone to fall back to 71.76 within 1 - 2 months. Downside Monday, breaking/opening below 75.28 signals 73.98, while closing today below 75.28 indicates 71.76 within 3 - 5 days, able to contain selling through May, once tested the market poised for recovery to 81.48 within 1 - 2 months.
NYMEX:CLM2023
by SpecialeAnalysis