Financial Wave. CLCL
Our preferable scenario for CL is to drop the price to $68. The $83-$86 range is key for the CL, the $86 price move cancels our scenario.
Cl1
CL1! Potential For Bearish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for CL1! is bearish due to the current price crossing below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. Looking for a sell entry at 81.30, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 84.14, slightly above where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Take profit will be at 76.93, where the 20% Fibonacci line and previous low is.
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USOIL 5th DECEMBER 2022Organization of Petroleum Exporters and its Allies (OPEC+) maintained production cuts, keeping production at 2 million barrels per day (bpd) from November to 2023. Oil prices weakened as China's zero-covid policy weighed on demand. However, after the regulation was relaxed in a number of cities including Beijing and Shanghai, oil prices slowly moved up. WTI and Brent oil are significantly bullish, this is partly driven by the easing of China's covid-19 lockdown.
Technically, oil prices are still in a bearish trend, but bullish is possible in the next few days until the resistance area. recommendation to sell in the resistance area marked by the red area. Prices can go higher, pay attention to several points that can make oil prices tend to be bullish: opec policy, easing lockdown in china, and weakening USD.
CL back to $90 a barrel?Following price cap on Russian oil, Opec+ is likely to cut oil supply for the second time.
Technically, CL has broken above the downtrend resistance and now in a correction wave.
Getting filled at $77 will give us the ideal RRR in this trade.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, DAILY Market Analysis 12/5/22For Monday, 83.20 can contain buying into later week, below which 76.50 midterm support is likely again over that time horizon.
Downside Monday, 79.62 can contain intraday weakness, while breaking/opening below 79.62 allows 76.50 intraday, where the market can place a weekly low, possibly into later December.
Holding above 76.50 allows 91.16-92.56 by the end of December, while closing today below 76.50 indicates 66.10 over the same time horizon, the start of a narrowing range of long-term support down to 65.00 able to contain selling through winter activity.
Upside Monday, pushing/opening above 83.20 signals 85.02, while closing today above 83.20 indicates 91.16-92.56 within 2-3 weeks, longer-term resistance able to contain buying through winter.
Opening (Margin): /CL February 15th 40 Short Put... for a 1.70 credit.
Comments: Taking a small, far out-of-the-money trade on weakness here, targeting the strike paying around 10% of buying power effect in credit. 1.70 credit on BPE of 16.32; 10.4% ROC at max; 5.2% ROC at 50% max as a function of buying power effect.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, DAILY Market Analysis 12/2/22For Friday, 83.11 can contain buying into later next week, below which 76.48 midterm support is likely again over that time horizon.
Downside Friday, 79.44 can contain intraday weakness, while breaking/opening below 79.44 allows 76.48 intraday, where the market can bottom out through next week.
Holding above 76.48 allows 92.46 by the end of December, while closing today below 76.48 indicates 66.25 over the same time horizon, the start of a narrowing range of long-term support down to 64.57 able to contain selling through winter activity.
Upside Friday, pushing/opening above 83.11 signals 85.02, while closing today above 83.11 indicates 92.46 within 2-3 weeks, longer-term resistance able to contain buying through winter activity.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, DAILY Market Analysis 12/1/22For Thursday, 76.48 can contain weekly selling pressures, above which 83.03 is likely within the week, possibly allowing 92.46 longer-term resistance by the end of December.
Upside Thursday, 83.03 can contain buying through the balance of the week, while a daily settlement above 83.03 indicates 92.46 within 2-3 weeks, where the market can top out through winter activity.
Downside Thursday, 79.86 can contain intraday weakness, while breaking/opening below 79.86 allows 76.48 intraday, able to contain weekly selling pressures and the point to settle below for indicating 66.41 within 2-3 weeks, the start of a narrowing range of support down to 64.57 able to contain selling through winter.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, DAILY Market Analysis 11/30/22For Wednesday, 76.48 can contain weekly selling pressures, above which 82.95 is likely within the week, possibly allowing 92.46 longer-term resistance by the end of December.
Upside Wednesday, 80.46 can contain intraday strength, beyond which 82.95 is likely intraday and able to contain buying through the balance of the week.
A daily settlement above 82.95 indicates 92.46 within 2-3 weeks, where the market can top out through winter activity.
Downside Wednesday, breaking/opening below 76.48 allows 72.87, while closing today below 76.48 indicates 66.56 within 2-3 weeks, the start of a narrowing range of support down to 64.57 able to contain selling through winter.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, DAILY Market Analysis 11/29/22For Tuesday, 76.48 can contain weekly selling pressures, above which 82.87 is likely within the week, possibly allowing 92.46 by the end of December.
Upside Tuesday, 78.49 can contain intraday strength, beyond which 82.87 is attainable intraday and able to contain buying into later week.
A daily settlement above 82.87 indicates 92.46 long-term resistance within 2-3 weeks, where the market can top out through winter activity.
Downside Tuesday, breaking/opening below 76.48 allows 72.87, while closing today below 76.48 indicates 66.72 within 2-3 weeks, the start of a narrowing range of support able to contain selling through winter activity.
Oil buyers step in at $72/bbl: Is the downside limited?The oil market has seen a lot of activity, with recent developments mostly easing worries about market tightness.
In China, Covid-related restrictions have been reinstalled in major cities, triggering rare protests and consequently reducing outlook for oil consumption, in striking contrast to perceived moves to reopen the economy at the beginning of November.
On the supply side, reports that the United States granted Chevron Corp permission to restart oil production in Venezuela, as well as Iraq's statement that it will add 1 million to 1.5 million barrels per day of oil export capacity by 2025, weighed on oil prices.
The oil future curve is no longer in a backwardation state. The price premium that spot WTI held over its future contracts ( 3A1! ; 4A1! ; 5A1! ) has been fully wiped away by the most recent leg of oil depreciation. In essence, the spot price of oil is currently trading at par compared to its 6-month future delivery, indicating that the market is not currently concerned about prompt supply.
This condition has not been observed since January 2021, and it may be prudent to be wary of surprises at this time.
Bad news is priced, but positive catalysts are still to come?
With most bad news already priced in by the market, it may take something new to stop oil prices from falling. In October, the US White House signalled that it intends to repurchase crude to replenish its SPR stocks when WTI prices are at or below about $65/bbl and $72/bbl. Consequently, this area could present a strong price support and thus limit the downside relative to current market prices.
Additionally, supply-side risks have not completely disappeared. The G7 has postponed a price ceiling on Russian oil, but Russia said that it may retaliate, restricting supply, if the G7 applies a price cap. In view of recent market developments, OPEC+ could also reinforce its very restrictive supply strategy on Sunday, December 4th.
Dip buying to resume at $72?
Technically speaking, oil has revised its lows for 2022 and is currently experiencing a negative year-to-date performance.
The most recent wave of decline was dramatic, bringing the daily RSI close to oversold territory. In the past, massive selloffs in oil prices, with the daily RSI in oversold territory, produced some near-term price recovery. WTI prices are currently 14% and 30% below their respective 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which appears overly pessimistic considering the persistence of upside risks.
Given how sharp the recent downward trend was and the fact that a positive catalyst might happen soon, dip buying may start to come back at these levels.
Crude Oil 5 Wave Sequence Completing, What Next?In this update we review the recent price action in the Crude Oil futures contract and identify the next high probability trading opportunity and price objectives to target
Light Crude to 54.09 by Jan 13th 2023Light Crude has lost a significant level at 78.16 and is reverting to the mean at 54.09 as demonstrated by my pitchfork trends and sigma measurments.
Pitchfork Price Action Analysis
Light Crude has broke out of the recent uptrend (with red median) and broke away from the (red) mean on Jun 14th 2022 (priced at 123.68).
Since then it has started to follow the down trend median with an attempt to break out on Nov 7 2022 (priced at 93.74)but failed to do so.
Price is looking for buyers at the 68.15 and if it fails to find them then this trend will revert to the median trend that broke out in Dec 22, 2021. That will take Light Crude to 54.09 by Jan 13th, 2023.
Flash Crash
Should we continue the trend down I can actually see a flash crash to 40.63 by Feb 28th 2023. This will be the full sigma move and will be an area where I'll look to buy into a reversal.
Financial Wave. CLOur preferable scenario changed after the price of CL went below $76.20. To complete the downward movement, the price may drop below $70. A rise above $79 will resume the upward move and cancel our view.
CRUDE OIL Will Fall!CRUDE OIL is trading in a downtrend
In a local falling channel
And after the retest of the falling resistance
We are already seeing a bearish reaction
So i think will fall a bit further down
OIL Homework for two of my students.11.25.22 I talked about oil and natural gas. The main discussion was on oil because door stop and reverse patterns that I want my two students to focus. I want them to battle through this, even if this causes physical injury because of a difference of opinion... because I think this will help them. Even if they are not stopped and reversed Traders, The Dynamics of this market support buyers and sellers... even though they may only trade one side of the market. Remember if there's a good setup for sellers and your long, at least you should get out of your long position. Likewise, short in the market and you're coming to strong buyers, you have to get out of your short position. You cannot forget about one side of the market. I had time to look at Natural Gas which came to a potential support area ....And I gave the potential set up with a scaling strategy.
CL and XLE divergence - 11/25/2022Why is there a divergence between CL and XLE?
XLE usually leads first. So does that mean CL going to catch back up after SPR depletes? Bullish on CL?
oil 11-24 update.good evening,
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remember in my last oil post when i called the top?
there was some really salty humans in the comment section who were most likely bag holders from the absolute peak of the bull run.
this is an update for them.
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last post:
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i feel like oil has entered into a quatervois here, which is basically "crossroad" in french.
currently seeing two potential trajectories:
1.
-oil runs up to 100ish through an expanded flat (green targets most probable, grey are weak, and red is unlikely, but always possible).
-after which, a swift downturn to my $57 target from the original post.
2.
-oil simply see's a dead-cat bounce, creates another hidden bearish divergence, and rolls over yet again - continuing it's bearish trajectory to my original target.
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all paths lead down there, potentially even deeper - but the question as always is: which path's it gonna take?
ps. no offense to all the people who talk smack on my posts, you're always welcome if you have a proper argument.
just keep in mind, "fundamentals, is not a proper argument".
crude oil : doble bottom pattern, going to 86.00oil if dont break low,has poweful buy now ,so we advice buy it now but put SL in low,,,if low break downtrend can start
note: trade oil need minimum 5 year practice on demo , it is very complex and trendy market
good luck
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, DAILY Market Analysis 11/25/22For Friday, 76.45 can contain weekly selling pressures, above which 93.76 is likely over the next 2-3 weeks.
Upside Friday, 82.70 can contain session strength, while closing above 82.70 indicates 93.76 within 1-2 weeks, where the market can top out into January, and a meaningful upside continuation point over the same time horizon.
Downside Friday, closing below 76.45 indicates 67.03 within 1-2 weeks, the start of a range of long-term support on the 64.15 able to contain selling through winter activity.
WTI OIL Buy opportunity to 83.00 and 86.00 short-termWTI Oil (USOIL) posted a Bull Flag pattern today similar to September 28 - 30, which is the rebound formation is shares many similarities with. The drop that led to the bottom on both sequences is very similar and you can see that by plotting the September 14 - 26 on November 09 - 18.
The 4H MACD is also on the same pattern, it appears that the price is on the cross point (red flag). The target is now the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) with an early projected hit at 83.00 and the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) around 86.00.
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Crude Oil (WTI) Detailed Trading Plan 🛢️
WTI Crude Oil is approaching a key daily structure resistance.
To short with a confirmation, watch a double top formation on 4H time frame.
80.3 - 80.8 is its neckline.
Wait for its bearish breakout (4h candle close below that), then, short aggressively or on a retest.
Goals: 78.4 / 76.0
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
CRUDE OIL Bullish entering DecemberWTI Crude Oil made a remarkable rebound yesterday marginally below the 76.30 Support (the Support Zone is now 76.30 - 75.30) and turned the 4H RSI around, approaching the 4H MA50 (yellow line).
This is the first Resistance (short term) with the initial target of this late September/October-like rebound being the 1D MA50 (blue line). If then the price breaks above the 1D MA100 (green line), we can continue buying and aim the 93.75 Resistance, which happens to be on the 0.382 Fibonacci level of the June 14 Top. Being so symmetrical, is why we consider the 0.236 Fibonacci to also be a medium term Resistance as well. A break above the 93.75 Resistance targets the 1D MA200 (orange line), the long term bearish barrier.
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